Trigger Time For The Left Looms On The Horizon

[Rightguide]

Yes.


The bump is not a harbinger of good things to come.

The bubble of Trump hatred that contains Biden's most ardent supporters
are going to have to learn that a negative massage is useless without a positive message
and that was the one message sorely lacking in the DNC convention;
they hired the wrong band for the background music.

They wanted Mozart and got kazoos...

The middle needed something to vote for
and all they got was something to vote against,
which, is not viewed as negatively as it is in the bubble.

As good an analysis as I've heard today.

 

[Rightguide]

Trump favorability drops to low 30s.

Biden’s up to mid 40s.

That shoots down a theory I see here.

Biden picked up more popularity here:

https://www.newsweek.com/richard-spencer-joe-biden-trump-maga-1527141

 

[HisArpy]

I read an article this am about how the most recent polls that show Biden +10 seem to have an internal correlation issue on what is called the "crosstabs".

Basically, they've been named "spoiler polls" which are seemingly designed to purposefully skew the average poll results rather than accurately reflect the mood of those polled via *ahem* improper weighting of results between Democrats and Republicans.


It is the very same phenomenon we saw from polling outfits during 2016 and with McGovern and Kerry as well as a couple of others.

 

[Rightguide]

I read an article this am about how the most recent polls that show Biden +10 seem to have an internal correlation issue on what is called the "crosstabs".

Basically, they've been named "spoiler polls" which are seemingly designed to purposefully skew the average poll results rather than accurately reflect the mood of those polled via *ahem* improper weighting of results between Democrats and Republicans.


It is the very same phenomenon we saw from polling outfits during 2016 and with McGovern and Kerry as well as a couple of others.

I saw an analysis of polls not too long ago and surprisingly Fox polls skewed towards Democrats with an average of only 24% Republicans being sampled. I haven't tested this personally, but I did see a podcast to that effect. I have checked the methodology of polls in the past and in a majority of cases Republicans were under sampled where party preference was stated.

 

[Adre]

I saw an analysis of polls not too long ago and surprisingly Fox polls skewed towards Democrats with an average of only 24% Republicans being sampled. I haven't tested this personally, but I did see a podcast to that effect. I have checked the methodology of polls in the past and in a majority of cases Republicans were under sampled where party preference was stated.

25% of Americans are registered Republicans from what I read.

 

[HisArpy]

I saw an analysis of polls not too long ago and surprisingly Fox polls skewed towards Democrats with an average of only 24% Republicans being sampled. I haven't tested this personally, but I did see a podcast to that effect. I have checked the methodology of polls in the past and in a majority of cases Republicans were under sampled where party preference was stated.

Say you're a polling outfit and you want to poll some political issue. You're under the gun to get the poll in the field and then get the results tabulated in the current news cycle.

Where do you make the majority of your calls?

Which political party is more predominant in those places?

 

[phrodeau]

Say you're a polling outfit and you want to poll some political issue. You're under the gun to get the poll in the field and then get the results tabulated in the current news cycle.

Where do you make the majority of your calls?

Which political party is more predominant in those places?

Today polls are worthless, but on Friday you were saying this: https://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?p=92748641#post92748641

 

[Aglaopheme]

Today polls are worthless, but on Friday you were saying this: https://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?p=92748641#post92748641

Consistently of thought is not his strong suit.

 

[HisArpy]

Today polls are worthless, but on Friday you were saying this: https://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?p=92748641#post92748641

GOFUCKYOURSELF YOU GODDAMNED BIGOTED SON OF A BITCH

 

[HisArpy]

Consistently of thought is not his strong suit.

That particular poll didn't have the "cross tab correlation issue" that the Biden +10 polls seem to have which has resulted in them being labeled "spoiler polls".


Not that you give a shit if it results in you getting to bitch about Trump.

 

[phrodeau]

We stopped the manpig-think of 'women and children first' in favor of equality.

Equality for children, great idea. I wonder how they’ll vote. Should pregnant women get two votes then?

 

[Aglaopheme]

I generally post 538 in response to people discussing a single poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

There ya go. You can even click on the tipping points box and see what the polls are saying in the individual swing states.

 

[HisArpy]

I generally post 538 in response to people discussing a single poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

There ya go. You can even click on the tipping points box and see what the polls are saying in the individual swing states.

And I have posted that 538's "averaging" is suspect in the weighting it uses.


Basically, it weights "spoiler polls" heavier in order to drag the "overall average" down for Trump.


It's not that difficult to see once you look for it. Not that you will. For your part, it's easier to just swallow whatever is on the spoon held to your lips.

Even if it's a healthy dose of bullshit.

 

[Rightguide]

It's definitely "Trigger Time" on the left.

Speaking of the tiggered left. Did you see Trump walk into the White House press room and goose everyone in the press section with a nonchalant, good morning, hope you all had a great time at your convention.

 

[Aglaopheme]

And I have posted that 538's "averaging" is suspect in the weighting it uses.


Basically, it weights "spoiler polls" heavier in order to drag the "overall average" down for Trump.


It's not that difficult to see once you look for it. Not that you will. For your part, it's easier to just swallow whatever is on the spoon held to your lips.

Even if it's a healthy dose of bullshit.

You’re right. I should be sticking with Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

 

[HisArpy]

You’re right. I should be sticking with Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

I don't really care what you do other than stop lying.


If you want to believe Trump isn't going to win, that's fine as long as you can back it up with more than clicking your heels together and chanting "Trump bad, Trump bad, Trump bad".



For what's it's worth, I think Trafalgar was the ONLY polling outfit to correctly predict the 2016 election right down to the percentages.

And, IIRC, they currently have Trump at 51%.

 

[HisArpy]

It's definitely "Trigger Time" on the left.

Speaking of the tiggered left. Did you see Trump walk into the White House press room and goose everyone in the press section with a nonchalant, good morning, hope you all had a great time at your convention.

Lol. I missed it but that's got to be some kind of straight up moxy on his part.

 

[Adre]

Remember how the Wackpack used to quote Fox News polls like they were a book from the New Testament?

Wonder why they don’t anymore.

Now it’s all about Trafalgar polls, the Uber conservative Republican pollster who routinely and blatantly oversamples...wait for it...

Republicans!

 

[HisArpy]

Remember how the Wackpack used to quote Fox News polls like they were a book from the New Testament?

Wonder why they don’t anymore.

Now it’s all about Trafalgar polls, the Uber conservative Republican pollster who routinely and blatantly oversamples...wait for it...

Republicans!

You left out the part where Trafalgar consistently seems to hit the target square in the X ring with their poll results, while every other polling outfit totally misses even the backstop.


Why is that?

 

[Rightguide]

Lol. I missed it but that's got to be some kind of straight up moxy on his part.

Nobody knows how and enjoys triggering the left more than Trump.

 

[Rightguide]

Remember how the Wackpack used to quote Fox News polls like they were a book from the New Testament?

Wonder why they don’t anymore.

Now it’s all about Trafalgar polls, the Uber conservative Republican pollster who routinely and blatantly oversamples...wait for it...

Republicans!

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll


Monday, August 24, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll sponsored by Liberty Nation for Monday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove.


https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_aug24

 

[HisArpy]

Nobody knows how and enjoys triggering the left more than Trump.

I wonder if there's going to be any sweat left in them after election night. Certainly there will be tears, but sweat?

 

[Aglaopheme]

I R O N Y and Irony was his name-o.

 

[HisArpy]

I R O N Y and Irony was his name-o.

Ok, I laff'd.

 

[Adre]

Rasmussen.


Hey, look, a poll I really like!!!