What happens now to Rojava/Syrian Kurdistan?

[Politruk]

A/k/a the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. The northeastern quarter of the country. This is the only faction in Syria's 13-year civil war that Westerners might consider the "good guys," in that they have what seems to be a real pluralist democracy not dominated by Islamists. The region has been de facto independent for many years now. Possible futures, now that the civil war is over:

1. Whatever new national government emerges in Syria moves in and takes control.

2. Rojava becomes like Iraqi Kurdistan -- effectively autonomous but owing a nominal loyalty to, and represented in, the national government.

3. Rojava declares independence.

4. Rojava merges with Iraqi Kurdistan, with the idea that the two together can eventually form the nucleus of an independent Kurdistan that will include the Kurdish-majority regions of Turkey and Iran.

5. Turkey moves in and annexes Rojava, just to forestall the possibility of 4.

 

[Politruk]

Kurds march to the European Parliament, calling for action for Rojava.

Following the call of the Congress of Democratic Societies of Kurdistan in Europe (KCDK-E) and the Kurdish Women's Movement in Europe (TJK-E), Kurds and their friends travelled from Germany, France and the Netherlands and gathered in Brussels to protest against the invasion attacks against North-East Syria.

The mass gathered at Porte de Namur Square, unfurled banners drawing attention to the war crimes of the occupying Turkish state, and carried posters of Abdullah Öcalan, flags of the YPG and YPJ.

After a minute of silence in memory of the Kurdistan Freedom Martyrs, demonstrators marched to the European Parliament.

 

[Politruk]

According to Jacobin, it's not looking good for the Kurds.

Turkey’s key objective in Syria is simple: liquidating multiethnic, Kurdish-led governance along its border, and pushing the Kurdish population back into the Syrian desert by establishing a twenty-mile-deep “safe zone.” There, it will also resettle Syrian refugees in formerly Kurdish settlements as a way of both satisfying domestic anti-refugee sentiment and entrenching ethnic change along its border.

Turkey has achieved this objective at points along the frontier. Yet, despite several close calls, it had been prevented from eradicating the DAANES by the Assad government’s intransigence in negotiations over the border zone, and by the presence of Russian and US troops in DAANES territory. While allowing Turkey to rain down air strikes, wiping out the region’s water, electricity, and humanitarian infrastructure, both these powers ultimately preferred to retain a foothold in the north alongside dependable Kurdish forces rather than witness further chaotic violence and a power shift in favor of Ankara.

 

[Politruk]

xxxx

 

[ishtat]

Possible futures, now that the civil war is over:

Civil war in this part of the world is never over. It is normal and has been so for hundreds of years.

 

[Politruk]

Depressing.

 

[Politruk]

Turkey moves to isolate the Kurds in Syria, and prepares a way for new attacks.

 

[ClockworkFox]

Amid all those celebrations in Syria, has it struck anyone else that, after Al Assad Senior and Al Assad Junior, whoever comes next will be a sonofabitch too? Some countries just seem to get one SOB after another. We don't know we're born in Europe.

 

[Politruk]

Amid all those celebrations in Syria, has it struck anyone else that, after Al Assad Senior and Al Assad Junior, whoever comes next will be a sonofabitch too? Some countries just seem to get one SOB after another. We don't know we're born in Europe.

Well, the nearest thing Syria has to a leader right now is an Islamist, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, so . . . yeah.

According to this, the main factions in Syria now are:

Hayat Tharir al-Sham (HTS): The newly victorious faction. Islamists, formerly aligned with al-Qaeda.

Syrian National Army (SNA): Turkish-backed, anti-Kurdish.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Kurdish, in the northeast.

Turkey

Russia

Iran

Israel -- occupying territory around the Golan Heights.

U.S. -- 900 troops present, ostensibly partnered with the Kurdish SDF to fight the remnants of ISIS.

 

[ClockworkFox]

Right. Can't imagine all of the above sitting down at a round table to hammer things out, can you?

But, as one smiling Syrian lady said on the news the other day, amid a recent 900% hike in the price of bread, "At least now we can complain."

For now, darling, for now ...

And did Bashar and Asma send a postcard to anyone? From Russia with love?

 

[Politruk]

Turkish invasion into Syria 'could be imminent,' US officials fear.

 

[colddiesel]

The US barely complained about Israels incursion in the South so they can hardly complain about Turkey doing exactly the same in the North. Erdogan and Netanyahu are both thoroughly unsavoury characters but if those nations dominate the area that is probably the nearest to stability the region will get. The only real US interest in the area is to get the Russians to abandon their base. The US has to keep onside with the Turks because they have by far the most powerful ground forces in the region, quite capable of intimidating Russia, Iran or Israel if they choose to do so. Iran having suffered setbacks elsewhere might elect to destabilize Iraq in support of the Kurds but that might not come to anything much because Iran and Turkey will not want to come into conflict over the issue. The smaller weaker countries, including Syria and Iraq and the Kurds will have to put up with whatever the more powerful nations allow them, most will be ruled by some local warlord until another disposes and replaces them, so little change.

 

[LLCox]

Iran must be worse off than I thought. You would think like everyone else they would come in and grab what they could of Syria.

 

[ClockworkFox]

Amid all those celebrations in Syria, has it struck anyone else that, after Al Assad Senior and Al Assad Junior, whoever comes next will be a sonofabitch too? Some countries just seem to get one SOB after another. We don't know we're born in Europe.

Hey, Nicefella, thanks for the like. And your "suck my dick" profile is a hoot.

 

[Politruk]

Iran must be worse off than I thought. You would think like everyone else they would come in and grab what they could of Syria.

Iran has the disadvantage of not sharing a border with Syria.

 

[colddiesel]

Iran has the disadvantage of not sharing a border with Syria.

Kurds live in a fairly contiguous area, spanning parts of Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria. In a part of the world where frontiers have changed almost constantly, borders have little meaning. In addition some 30 million Iranian/Persian speakers live outside of Iran. Religious social and political differences further complicate the issue.

Stable borders are not normal Look at any historical map of Europe. 1815 is a good example.

 

[Politruk]

Kurds live in a fairly contiguous area, spanning parts of Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Syria. In a part of the world where frontiers have changed almost constantly, borders have little meaning. In addition some 30 million Iranian/Persian speakers live outside of Iran. Religious social and political differences further complicate the issue.

Stable borders are not normal Look at any historical map of Europe. 1815 is a good example.

That suggests the possibility of an independent Kurdistan.

 

[colddiesel]

That suggests the possibility of an independent Kurdistan.

No it doesn't. The Turks do not want it and the Iranians value their relationship with the Turks more than that with the Kurds. Your conclusion also presupposes that the Kurds have a united objective; they do not, Some are Sunni, some Shia, some have democratic leanings many do not. Their allegiances tend to be family and tribal, rather than National or territorial.

 

[Politruk]

No it doesn't. The Turks do not want it and the Iranians value their relationship with the Turks more than that with the Kurds. Your conclusion also presupposes that the Kurds have a united objective; they do not, Some are Sunni, some Shia, some have democratic leanings many do not. Their allegiances tend to be family and tribal, rather than National or territorial.

But there definitely has been a Kurdish nationalist movement for many decades now.

W should have granted independence to Iraqi Kurdistan when that was in his power. Would have saved a lot of trouble down the road -- and we now would be debating over whether Kurdistan should annex Rojava -- a much easier call than any option now possible.

 

[Politruk]

'Danger of IS resurgence has doubled' - Syria's Kurds warn of group's comeback

 

[Politruk]

Erdogan urges end of foreign support for Kurdish fighters in Syria

Turkiye expects foreign countries to withdraw support for Kurdish fighters in Syria after the toppling of Bashar al-Assad, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says, as Germany warns against an escalation in fighting with Kurdish forces.

Speaking to reporters on a flight home from a summit in Egypt, Erdogan said there was no longer any reason for outsiders to back Kurdish fighters with the People’s Protection Units (YPG). His comments were released by his office on Friday.

The YPG is the main force in a United States-backed alliance called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria. Turkiye considers the YPG an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has long fought the Turkish state and is designated as a “terrorist” group by Ankara, Washington and the European Union.

In his remarks, Erdogan compared YPG fighters to ISIL (ISIS), an armed group also known as Daesh, and said neither group has a future in Syria

 

[Politruk]

Kurds Under Threat in Syria as Turkey Launches Attacks & Kills Journalists.

 

[Politruk]

Erdogan says YPG ‘will be buried’ in Syria if it doesn’t lay down arms.

 

[Politruk]

Based on this, a non-violent solution is at least possible.

 

[Politruk]

Encouraging news: The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that control the Northeast have worked out a deal with the new government.

A Kurdish-led militia alliance which controls north-eastern Syria has signed a deal to integrate all military and civilian institutions into the Syrian state, the country's presidency says.
The agreement, which includes a complete cessation of hostilities, says the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will hand over control of the region's border posts, airport, and vital oil and gas fields.
It also recognises the Kurdish minority as "an integral part of the Syrian state" and guarantees "the rights of all Syrians to representation and participation in the political process".
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi called the deal a "real opportunity to build a new Syria".
"We are committed to building a better future that guarantees the rights of all Syrians and fulfils their aspirations for peace and dignity," he wrote on X after signing the deal in Damascus on Monday alongside interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
The deal represents a major step towards Sharaa's goal to unify the fractured country after his Sunni Islamist group led the rebel offensive that overthrew president Bashar al-Assad in December and ended 13 years of devastating civil war.
It could also de-escalate the SDF's conflict with neighbouring Turkey and Turkish-backed Syrian former rebel factions allied to the government, which are trying to push the alliance out of areas near the border.