Baseball Chatter 2k11

[Light Ice]

I just don't think that New York has the level of talent necessary to go deep in these playoffs. They don't match up well against the Tigers and they certainly don't match up well against the Rangers. Nova gave them a great boost in game one and Robbie Cano will always rake but in the end they're too old, too thin at starting pitching, and pretty average in their bullpen.

 

[HeDoesntLikeYou]

As a fan, I think the Yankees can go all the way. As a realist, I know that they're too weak in pitching, and even if they get past Detroit and Texas, they can't get past the Phillies.

I see you're a Mets fan. I'm not a hater. I like to see the Mets do well. I went to Citi Field for the first time this past May. I was impressed.

 

[Light Ice]

Beautiful stadium. It's too bad Minaya put together a team that can't succeed there. Oh, well. It brought us Sandy. I'm pretty confident he'll make us competitive before too long.

 

[Light Ice]

The short rest, four years ago, would not have troubled CC Sabathia. The sad fact is that the man is simply too damned heavy. He needs to lose weight as he continues to age or he will slowly, steadily, slip from his current standard of greatness. Look, youth can overcome a ton of things. It can overcome drug addiction (Doc Gooden). It can overcome weight (Bartolo Colone, CC Sabathia, Boomer Wells). It can overcome wildness, lack of finesse, lack of breaking ball or fastball.

But youth fades. That's a fact.

And unless you adjust, unless you mature and grow, your career will fade with it. And quickly. CC Sabathia used to be able to walk around at close to 300 pounds and pitch 200 super effective innings, skip rest, and go deep into games. The fact is that his innings are down, his strikeouts are down, and he obviously cannot pitch on short rest anymore. If he doesn't get a grip on his weight and work on his conditioning the rest of his numbers will follow.

Justin Verlander is astounding and it's not his 100+ mph fastball that has been the difference. Two years ago Verlander was struggling. Teams, knowing his curveball had huge break and often missed the zone, would sit fastball. They'd foul off pitches too fast to hit on the corners and make him work hard early until mistake fastballs ended up in the seats. If his curveball wasn't hitting the zone early he wasn't going late into games.

The answer? His changeup. In 2008 his changeup sat between 90-93 mph. Now? It's 86-88mph and with huge, downward sink. He managed to get this pitch accurate and extremely ferocious with its movement by changing his grip and working extensively with it. The result is that hitters sitting on the fastball swing and miss horribly on his changeup.

Here's a video of Jose Bautista, in the middle of his breakout 2010 season, looking like he's never played baseball before when Verlander throws him an 86 mph split-finger changeup. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8VgW58XQqc

That's filthy. It's flat-out unfair. The fact that in 2011 Verlander could locate this pitch consistently, along with his fastball, explains the year he's had. You mix that in with the huge uncle charlie that he throws and you have Cy Young, period.

The Yankees, beyond this game, are flat-out outmatched. They're simply not the same Yankees. A-Roid (couldn't help myself) looks extremely pedestrian. Jeter, while swinging the bat better, is a liability on defense. Swisher, his numbers inflated at Yankee Stadium, looks completely unworthy a starting position in every other ballpark he plays at.

This team has to get younger. It has to embrace Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson as its young stars and build its lineup around those two and Mark Texiera.

Their bullpen is terrible. Robertson and Mariano are solid, at times dominating, and after at the drop off is huge. Soriano has simply not worked out for the money.

I like the Tigers. I like them a lot if the Rays perform a miracle and crawl back against the Rangers. (Won't happen).

But this team could, possibly, really surprise everyone and end up in the World Series.


My money, though, is on the Rangers.

 

[Light Ice]

I don't know the last time I saw so may bad things happen to a team. The Detroit Tigers have lost Magglio Ordonez for the rest of the season and, of all the players on the roster, he's the hardest to replace. The team absolutely does not have a right-handed outfield bat to slide into his place and throw some balance to the line-up. Delmon Young, initially removed from this series roster because of his problems against the Texas rotation and several injuries, has been reinserted. Desperation move.

The Tigers can still swing this series. They're down 0-1 (another 1st game rain delay to unhinge Verlander. Not a good sign.) but have already proven they have the strength to battle. The problem for the Tigers here is that the Rangers aren't just any other club. They're the odds on favorite to win and for a lot of legitimate reasons. I think the Tigers can be very proud of their season but unless they get a serious stroke of momentum and some huge, huge at bats from guys like Kelly and Inge, they're going home.

Meanwhile, coming off an improbable win in the NLDS, the Cardinals have run right smack into a Brewers club that is playing with passion, instinct, and has more talent than they do.

I had a conversation with a friend of mine here a couple weeks ago. We discussed that the Phillies rotation was daunting but their lineup was old, struggling against left-handed pitching, and striking out too much. Those are serious weaknesses to have in a post-season series. I still picked them over the Brewers - however, we both agreed if the BrewCrew's pitching came alive then their lineup was sure to push them over the hump.

Watch out.

Right now Ryan Braun is batting .545.

Yeah. That's right. .545

His OBP is a staggering .894 and he's still punching the ball into the gaps for doubles.

Right now, as far as I'm concerned, Ryan Braun is putting together the most convincing argument for Post-Season MVP that I have ever seen. The fact of the matter is that if you pitch to this guy right now he's going to hit it and if you pitch him middle-in or low-in, he's going to take you out. Now, sure, he's getting the benefit of having a very hot Prince Fielder behind him in the order.

But nobody has been as hot as Braun.

It's hard to imagine a series this team can't win with Yovani and Zack pitching at the front of the rotation, and pitching well, and a deep line-up continuing to produce. The mid-season grab for K-Rod has really helped this bullpen and looks like a god send now that Jon Axford might be done for the rest of the post season.

Brewers - Rangers World Series?

Man, wouldn't that be great for the game?

 

[Light Ice]

Today, without the fanfare of some of the Free Agent signings, one of the most lopsided trades I've ever seen in the MLB took place with Moneyball guru Billy Beane on the wrong end.

I've no idea what the A's are doing or where there head is at but to give up a 23 year old MLB starter with 800 injury free innings on his arm and star potential for so little is insanity.

 

[Light Ice]

Red Sox make a neat little move in dealing Jed Lowrie 3B and Weiland RHP to the Astros for RHP Mark Melancon. This move works for both teams, particularly the Red Sox, and my only criticism for the Astros involves their timing.

Melancon had a successful year and the Astros cash in with the gamble of Jed Lowrie who can rake when he's healthy and play several infield positions. Weiland, who had a lost season for the Red Sox as he floundered with a fastball he simply could not locate, is still a legitimate #3 starter prospect and could come around to help the Astros. If either if these pieces do not work out they cost the Astros, who work on a limited budget, won't be hurt in the long term.

The Red Sox shore up a bullpen that was over-taxed last year by injuries. I've talked about how last year the Red Sox collapse was due mostly to injuries through their rotation and minor league help and that they are very close to being a dominant team. Melancon is a hard-thrower who misses bats and throws strikes right out of the gate. I don't like the decision to make Daniel Bard a starter. I think that he's a great closer and Melancon would be a great option to set him up. That said, with Jenks coming back and looking strong and Melancon there, the Red Sox have a back-end of a bullpen that can be effective.

These little moves aren't blockbuster trades but usually help both clubs.

I question the Astros timing because they have Melancon under control until 2016 and he's very affordable. I just don't know that they got enough for him to explain parting with him right now. If they held onto him they could have probably gotten the same kind of player package a year or two down the line and still enjoyed a couple years of Melancon in their pen.