2018 midterm elections prediction thread

[BotanyBoy]

I think the (R)'s will retain control and we'll be entertained by a whole new level of (D) meltdowns over the next 2 years.

 

[Wrong Element]

One thing it's important to point out is that the talk of the Democrats possibly "losing" seats in the Senate is referring to a net loss only, given the number of seats they're defending. There is no forecast I know of that shows the Republicans actually winning a majority of the Senate seats up for election next month.



People need to be talking about governor's races too, because in most states governors have some sort of role in redistricting even if the legislature is of the opposite party. The Dems are definitely flipping Michigan and Illinois, and have a chance at a few other flips (including Ohio, though I've learned not to hold my breath waiting for Dem wins at the state level).

 

[FakeNews]

Illinois governor’s race...

The shithole that is Illinois politics
https://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?t=1486912

 

[HisArpy]

Why should Mueller and his team tailor their report to suit the winners of the election? They personally have nothing to fear or to hope for. Once the report is done, no matter what it says or who holds Congress, they will all simply go back to their normal Justice Department jobs. They will all have a remarkable item on their resumes, maybe some will get book deals if department policy allows, and that is all they will get out of this.

Winners tend to be the ones who write history. But, for the sake of argument, can you imagine what the results will be if the R's keep their majorities in both houses and Mueller turns in a report that says Trump did evil things?

Or if he turns in a report exonerating Trump on everything after the D's take both houses?

NO ONE is that politically naive. The contents of Mueller's report depends on who wins in November. Of course we won't actually know what's in the report because it's classified by its nature. However, the timing and the election results will tell us a lot.

• If Mueller holds off until January, and the D's take the House, it's bad for Trump.

• If Mueller releases his report in December, and the D's take the House, it's good for Trump.

• If Mueller releases his report in December, and the R's hold the House, it's good for Trump.

• If Mueller holds off on releasing his report, and the R's hold the House (and Senate), it's bad for Mueller.

If you can find another possibility of what's potentially in the report, I'd love to see it.

 

[HisArpy]

One thing it's important to point out is that the talk of the Democrats possibly "losing" seats in the Senate is referring to a net loss only, given the number of seats they're defending. There is no forecast I know of that shows the Republicans actually winning a majority of the Senate seats up for election next month.

Fivethirtyeight's Senate forecast that Republican's keep the Senate in November

 

[Adre]

For those who (nervously) laugh at the notion of a blue wave:

“The Republican House majority continues to show signs of collapsing, with Democrats steadily gaining ground toward erasing the 23-seat margin and ending eight years of GOP control.

A total of 68 seats currently held by Republicans are firmly in play — rated as “Lean Republican” or worse for the GOP — presenting a stark contrast to the Democratic side, where only a half-dozen Democratic seats are in similar jeopardy.”

-Politico

 

[HisArpy]

For those who (nervously) laugh at the notion of a blue wave:

“The Republican House majority continues to show signs of collapsing, with Democrats steadily gaining ground toward erasing the 23-seat margin and ending eight years of GOP control.

A total of 68 seats currently held by Republicans are firmly in play — rated as “Lean Republican” or worse for the GOP — presenting a stark contrast to the Democratic side, where only a half-dozen Democratic seats are in similar jeopardy.”

-Politico

I've pointed out numerous times that the AVERAGE number of seats that flip during mid-term elections is around 31. That's the AVERAGE number of seats, not some theoretical huge tsunami of change - AVERAGE.

Before Kavanaugh, most forecasters were predicting 24-26 net gain for the D's. That's right, not even the AVERAGE. Some were predicting 31. (Amazing, they forecast the average. I wonder how they got that number?)

NOW, fivethrityeight, and others, are saying that there's a possibility of the D's not even getting the 24-26 net gain. They need 23 to flip the House majority to their side.

• I don't see a "blue wave" except from Papa Smurf.

• If the current data is accurate, the D's may not flip either branch.

We won't know the end result until it's over, but the blue wave never really was anything more than hype.

 

[Gemma_0]

In the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans will win at least four Senate seats and a number of Congressional seats. In 2020, Donald Trump will be reelected, and Republicans will win more Senate and Congressional seats.

 

[Anns_dead_Father]

I predict a lot of whining, gloating and deflection from americans.

 

[Adre]

I've pointed out numerous times that the AVERAGE number of seats that flip during mid-term elections is around 31. That's the AVERAGE number of seats, not some theoretical huge tsunami of change - AVERAGE.

Before Kavanaugh, most forecasters were predicting 24-26 net gain for the D's. That's right, not even the AVERAGE. Some were predicting 31. (Amazing, they forecast the average. I wonder how they got that number?)

NOW, fivethrityeight, and others, are saying that there's a possibility of the D's not even getting the 24-26 net gain. They need 23 to flip the House majority to their side.

• I don't see a "blue wave" except from Papa Smurf.

• If the current data is accurate, the D's may not flip either branch.

We won't know the end result until it's over, but the blue wave never really was anything more than hype.

We can revisit your expert opinion in 4 weeks.

 

[BBX50]

We can revisit your expert opinion in 4 weeks.

I have read you since day 1

from day 1 I pegged you right, a LIB LOON

when I said so, you tried to say you were an INDEPENDENT.....why? why the decption when its so obvious? arent you proud pf who and what you are?

Yup, I pegged ypu right

A DRECK NIGGER, IN DEPENDS

 

[Rightguide]

In the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans will win at least four Senate seats and a number of Congressional seats. In 2020, Donald Trump will be reelected, and Republicans will win more Senate and Congressional seats.

Not sure about the House but I think the Reps pick up two senate seats.

 

[Kirkrapine]

But, for the sake of argument, can you imagine what the results will be if the R's keep their majorities in both houses and Mueller turns in a report that says Trump did evil things?

Or if he turns in a report exonerating Trump on everything after the D's take both houses?

Trump might fire Mueller, but otherwise the results would not affect him or his staff in any way. Congress has no immediate power over them, only over the DoJ in general, which has always had a wide scope of political independence. And if they were afraid of Trump, they wouldn't be on the team at all. Whatever the report says, they will all remain DoJ lawyers.

 

[Liar]

Democrats Senate +2, House +18

You mean seats won or final majority margin?

 

[Liar]

I've pointed out numerous times that the AVERAGE number of seats that flip during mid-term elections is around 31. That's the AVERAGE number of seats, not some theoretical huge tsunami of change - AVERAGE.

Before Kavanaugh, most forecasters were predicting 24-26 net gain for the D's. That's right, not even the AVERAGE. Some were predicting 31. (Amazing, they forecast the average. I wonder how they got that number?)

NOW, fivethrityeight, and others, are saying that there's a possibility of the D's not even getting the 24-26 net gain. They need 23 to flip the House majority to their side.

• I don't see a "blue wave" except from Papa Smurf.

• If the current data is accurate, the D's may not flip either branch.

We won't know the end result until it's over, but the blue wave never really was anything more than hype.

Um, Fivethirtyeight still holds +34 a likely gain. They have always said there's a possibility of the Dems not gaining enought to flip the house. At the moment a 23,5% possibility

I guess this is as good a place as any to copypaste my post from over at the poli-forum that nobody visits anyway.

--

The right:
This Kavanaugh debacle has shown the true despicable nature of Democrats, how they are willing to break everything for a win. This will galvanize us in the midterms and we will surely show 'em. #walkaway

The left:
This Kavanaugh debacle has shown the true despicable nature of Republicans, how they are willing to break everything for a win. This will galvanize us in the midterms and we will surely show 'em. #bluewave

--

 

[M. Jordan]

Dems lose one or two Senate seats, Pubs lose one or two. Even. House goes solid Democratic.

It should be noted Pubs have a lot more Senate seats to defend in 2020 and 2022.

Maybe but there is still plenty of time for a new scandal or stupid thing from this administration. Too early to wager.

 

[HisArpy]

Um, Fivethirtyeight still holds +34 a likely gain. They have always said there's a possibility of the Dems not gaining enought to flip the house. At the moment a 23,5% possibility

I guess this is as good a place as any to copypaste my post from over at the poli-forum that nobody visits anyway.

--

The right:
This Kavanaugh debacle has shown the true despicable nature of Democrats, how they are willing to break everything for a win. This will galvanize us in the midterms and we will surely show 'em. #walkaway

The left:
This Kavanaugh debacle has shown the true despicable nature of Republicans, how they are willing to break everything for a win. This will galvanize us in the midterms and we will surely show 'em. #bluewave

--

I don't see 34 seats net gain for the D's. Even fivethirtyeight concedes that where the polling is right now at +7 on the generic ballot, it's a toss up as to whether the D's will gain enough seats or not (although it looks like they will just because of the electoral map) and it depends on what happens between now and election day as to what actually happens.

According to Nate Silver, the D's won't actually have any real insurmountable advantage until it hits the magic number of +8 on the generic ballot and holds that through election day. At +5 the blue wave is basically non-existent because they will probably pick up seats but they won't take the House and certainly won't take the Senate.

Think about that. At +7 we are only 2 points above what is basically non-existence for the vaunted "Blue Wave". +6 is the equivalent of "maybe but it's more likely the D's won't get the majority in either the House or the Senate." Which translates to "no Blue Wave".

If I were a D, I wouldn't bet the farm on those odds. Not in this political climate. But that's what the vocal Left and the D's in general are doing.

Here's an interesting tidbit; at this time last year the D's had a +14 advantage. That's a 50% loss in 1 year going from near certainty to maybe/maybe not. That's pretty telling toward whether the voters think the D's are on the right path or not with their political agenda.

 

[IG_88]

Aint gonna be a wave of any kind. Standard midterm adjustments is all. Trump hasn't turned off the party as much as everyone thought he would. Better Trump than Democrat I guess. Whatever the hell it is they're thinking.

 

[Liar]

I don't see 34 seats net gain for the D's.

Like I said, me niether. I think they'll eke out a House majority though.

But as I also said, this prediction is pulled out of my arse.

 

[pointless]

i predict i'll vote. i also predict that if we actually vote to legalize pot without ousting the republican cunts from power in my state that they'll do everything they can to ignore the will of the people.

again.

useless fucks.

 

[SpeareChucker]

I have read you since day 1

from day 1 I pegged you right, a LIB LOON

when I said so, you tried to say you were an INDEPENDENT.....why? why the decption when its so obvious? arent you proud pf who and what you are?

Yup, I pegged ypu right

A DRECK NIGGER, IN DEPENDS

*chuckle*


True. An independent who just fucking hates Republicans.

 

[Adre]

*chuckle*


True. An independent who just fucking hates Republicans.

And yet I vote for them. You’re a small minded douchenozzle.

 

[BBX50]

*chuckle*


True. An independent who just fucking hates Republicans.

yeah, imagine that

I cant tell the difference between CNN/MSNBC/DUMOH or A DRECK NIGGER IN DEPENDS

 

[Kirkrapine]

i predict i'll vote. i also predict that if we actually vote to legalize pot without ousting the republican cunts from power in my state that they'll do everything they can to ignore the will of the people.

again.

useless fucks.

What state?

 

[pointless]

Michigan.