Brexit? What happens now?

[Scotsman69]

Boris' departure from the Tory leadership race leaves WEXIT (Wales and England, the more correct term than Brexit, only part of the UK voted to leave the EU) in the mess they have earned. The value of my private pension pot has tumbled in the last week.

Nicola Sturgeon is the only major politician in the UK to come out of this well. I'm glad I'm in Scotland.

No do-overs? See post #4 above. The EU has a poor record on accepting democratic votes.

 

[DeYaKen]

Boris' departure from the Tory leadership race leaves WEXIT (Wales and England, the more correct term than Brexit, only part of the UK voted to leave the EU) in the mess they have earned. The value of my private pension pot has tumbled in the last week.

Nicola Sturgeon is the only major politician in the UK to come out of this well. I'm glad I'm in Scotland.

The EU have made it abundantly clear that they only deal with independent states. If they did a deal with Scotland they would have to do a deal with London which has a larger population. Nicola Sturgeon can make all the noises she likes but it is all for consumption back home. She knows that without independence she can do nothing.

Without independence, Scotland sinks or swims with the rest of the UK. Being in Scotland won't help you.

 

[Scotsman69]

There is evidence that in the event Scotland has another independence referendum in 2017, and it shows a majority for independence, the EU might be prepared to put Scotland in a special 'holding pen' to allow it to remain in EU membership once the UK has left, but before Scottish independence is fully legally established.

This has been widely reported in the Scottish media. I don't imagine that is the case in England.

In one day after the announcement of the referendum result last week, online enquiries from English people considering moving to Scotland increased by 800%.

The EU have made it abundantly clear that they only deal with independent states. If they did a deal with Scotland they would have to do a deal with London which has a larger population. Nicola Sturgeon can make all the noises she likes but it is all for consumption back home. She knows that without independence she can do nothing.

Without independence, Scotland sinks or swims with the rest of the UK. Being in Scotland won't help you.

 

[Scotsman69]

Here's evidence for my claim above:

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...xit-vote/ar-AAhSJ47?li=AA59G2&ocid=spartandhp

 

[oggbashan]

There has also been a massive increase in enquiries about moving to Gibraltar.

But that is unlikely to lead to many people moving there. Gibraltar is already very overcrowded and getting residential status there is difficult.

 

[oggbashan]

There is evidence that in the event Scotland has another independence referendum in 2017, and it shows a majority for independence, the EU might be prepared to put Scotland in a special 'holding pen' to allow it to remain in EU membership once the UK has left, but before Scottish independence is fully legally established.

This has been widely reported in the Scottish media. I don't imagine that is the case in England.

In one day after the announcement of the referendum result last week, online enquiries from English people considering moving to Scotland increased by 800%.

Spain has a real problem with allowing an independent Scotland to remain in, or to join the EU. That problem is Spain's own separatists who want to break away from Spain and form their own country/countries. Any leniency for Scotland could encourage the break-up of Spain.

The Spanish government has been dismissive of the idea of an independent Scotland in the EU. They have not said it, but if there were to be a formal proposal Spain might veto Scotland joining.

 

[Scotsman69]

I'm well aware of the Spanish issue ogg. And I have friends in Catalunya. Madrid is just trying to keep irreversible forces back by sticking its thumb in a breaking dyke. But anyone politically active in Scotland understands that Madrid can only delay inevitability, not prevent it. With Scotland as with Catalunya.

Spain has a real problem with allowing an independent Scotland to remain in, or to join the EU. That problem is Spain's own separatists who want to break away from Spain and form their own country/countries. Any leniency for Scotland could encourage the break-up of Spain.

The Spanish government has been dismissive of the idea of an independent Scotland in the EU. They have not said it, but if there were to be a formal proposal Spain might veto Scotland joining.

 

[oggbashan]

I'm well aware of the Spanish issue ogg. And I have friends in Catalunya. Madrid is just trying to keep irreversible forces back by sticking its thumb in a breaking dyke. But anyone politically active in Scotland understands that Madrid can only delay inevitability, not prevent it. With Scotland as with Catalunya.

I run out of expletives when considering the current Spanish government - even expletives in Catalan and Llanito. I have friends in Gibraltar. They voted Remain because they see membership of the EU as a defence against the Spanish government actions.

 

[Scotsman69]

We're at one on at least this issue then ogg.

I run out of expletives when considering the current Spanish government - even expletives in Catalan and Llanito. I have friends in Gibraltar. They voted Remain because they see membership of the EU as a defence against the Spanish government actions.

 

[oggbashan]

We're at one on at least this issue then ogg.

We're not always but we can be sometimes.

Now all we need is a UK government that can sort out the mess. It would be nice if some one could sort out the EU too but that is asking too much.

 

[DeYaKen]

We're not always but we can be sometimes.

Now all we need is a UK government that can sort out the mess. It would be nice if some one could sort out the EU too but that is asking too much.

I find it amusing, considering how odious the EU was supposed to be, that the LEAVE campaigners seem to want to push our departure further back. Michael Gove has now said that he would not invoke Article 50 until the new year. Could it be that they don't want the electorate to feel the effects of leaving before the next election?

 

[Scotsman69]

Sorting the EU will take even longer than sorting the UK.

We're not always but we can be sometimes.

Now all we need is a UK government that can sort out the mess. It would be nice if some one could sort out the EU too but that is asking too much.

 

[oggbashan]

Sorting the EU will take even longer than sorting the UK.

I don't think sorting out the current EU is even possible given the entrenched positions of some of its leaders.

 

[srgreene]

The referendum vote for the UK to leave has caused a predictable chaos.

What happens now?

But only the UK government can start the process by formally invoking Article 50. David Cameron has announced his resignation for the Autumn and that he WON'T invoke Article 50. He will leave the

The Government could decide to delay for years while the EU gets more and more annoyed with the UK.

What do you bet the government never does invoke Article 50 and the whole issue simply withers in limbo?

I more than half suspect if the Brits want Brexit, they must elect a government dedicated to that proposition.

 

[srgreene]

Boris' departure from the Tory leadership race leaves WEXIT (Wales and England, the more correct term than Brexit, only part of the UK voted to leave the EU) in the mess they have earned. The value of my private pension pot has tumbled in the last week.

I hope your concern extends beyond your pocketbook. If the UK remains, will it even be a European country in 50 years?

 

[domroger]

What do you bet the government never does invoke Article 50 and the whole issue simply withers in limbo?

I more than half suspect if the Brits want Brexit, they must elect a government dedicated to that proposition.

If they let it wither UKIP could help form the next government and some of their membership make Donald Trump look sane .

 

[oggbashan]

If they let it wither UKIP could help form the next government and some of their membership make Donald Trump look sane .

A couple of the UKIP people who were elected locally shouldn't have been let out of the asylum.

 

[Scotsman69]

I assure you that in my concern for what happens in the world, my personal wealth (little as it is) is not my main driving force and never has been.

I'm a socialist. Always have been and always will be.

I hope your concern extends beyond your pocketbook. If the UK remains, will it even be a European country in 50 years?

 

[srgreene]

I'm a socialist. Always have been and always will be.

I notice you did not answer my question, viz. if the UK remains, will it be a European country in 50 years? When I visited London a couple of years ago, it seemed like Eurabia once we got away from the very touristy areas.

Allow me make the less than original observation that, as a socialist, sooner or later you will run out of other people's money.

 

[Scotsman69]

You are clearly from the USA, and therefore have no idea what a socialist is.

I have paid far more in taxes than the state has ever given me, because I enjoy good health and have never been out of work. I am a professional and have always earned a good salary. I have no need of other peoples' money. But some folk do, and I'm glad to help them in every way I can.

Talk to me again when you've grown out of your silly US prejudices, and are ready to join the real world.

I notice you did not answer my question, viz. if the UK remains, will it be a European country in 50 years? When I visited London a couple of years ago, it seemed like Eurabia once we got away from the very touristy areas.

Allow me make the less than original observation that, as a socialist, sooner or later you will run out of other people's money.

 

[underguy1]

I notice you did not answer my question, viz. if the UK remains, will it be a European country in 50 years? When I visited London a couple of years ago, it seemed like Eurabia once we got away from the very touristy areas.

Allow me make the less than original observation that, as a socialist, sooner or later you will run out of other people's money.

Was that a Thatcher original or was she quoting someone else?

Either way it demonstrates her complete lack of economic knowledge.

Currency issuing governments, like the UK, don't need 'other people's money'.

Other people need the currency issuer to spend it into existence in fact.

 

[srgreene]

Was that a Thatcher original or was she quoting someone else?

Either way it demonstrates her complete lack of economic knowledge.

Currency issuing governments, like the UK, don't need 'other people's money'.

Other people need the currency issuer to spend it into existence in fact.

No, the woman who rescued the UK from its economic decline knew nothing about economics. Right.

If I substituted the phrase "purchasing power" for "money", would you recognize it as a legitimate question?

 

[DeYaKen]

No, the woman who rescued the UK from its economic decline knew nothing about economics. Right.

If I substituted the phrase "purchasing power" for "money", would you recognize it as a legitimate question?

I know that Thatcher was well liked in the US. You saw her as trying to make Britain more like the US and less like Europe. However, unless you lived with the results of her policies, you are not really in a position to judge. In very many ways our current situation is due to the policies of Margaret Thatcher. We have a housing crisis because she used what you call housing projects to bribe the residents into reelecting her. We had a credit bubble because she presided over the greatest growth in inequality Britain has ever known. The less well off were forced to borrow in order to maintain their living standards.

The problems you now have, of jobs being exported to places with cheaper labour or energy, we had under Thatcher because she decided that Britain didn't need manufacturing. We would pay our way selling services and knowledge. As you now know, that really worked, NOT.

She refused to offer any support to any British Industry. While the Italian government gave their motorcycle industry five years protection from Japanese imports, she claimed that EU rules prevented us from doing the same. We don't help lame ducks was her mantra.

She deregulated banking and set the trend which basically said that these people were far too smart to be regulated by mere mortals. You know what a disaster that turned out to be. Our telecoms industry was privatised and now lags behind the rest of Europe. Our energy suppliers were privatised and we now have the highest energy prices in Europe.

When she was finally deposed we had 8% unemployment and inflation of 15%. I quote from memory but I'm sure that Scotsman can give you more accurate figures. However, this is somewhat difficult since the Thatcher government changed the way unemployment figures were calculated 19 times in order to make them look lower.

 

[oggbashan]

I notice you did not answer my question, viz. if the UK remains, will it be a European country in 50 years? When I visited London a couple of years ago, it seemed like Eurabia once we got away from the very touristy areas.

Allow me make the less than original observation that, as a socialist, sooner or later you will run out of other people's money.

London is NOT the UK. It has always been a racial mixing pot. A generation of immigrants come to London, settle down, start to improve their lot and move out, and then another wave of migrants follows.

"Socialist" in UK politics does not mean the abusive term used in the US. All main UK political parties including UKIP support the National Health Service and the Welfare State. They disagree about how they should be organised.

A UK socialist is concerned about inequalities in society, wanting to protect those who cannot support themselves because of incapacity or ill-health, and wanting workers to earn a reasonable living with reasonably secure employment and housing. All the UK political parties are in some degree 'socialist' but how they want to achieve the improvements varies. The degree of socialism varies and some who see themselves as socialist would not consider the Conservative party as socialist in any UK sense.

"Progressive" in UK politics does not mean the abusive term used in the US. The last Queen's Speech which outlined the government's intentions included the statement that the Conservative government would be 'progressive'. The Conservatives are supposed to be the UK's version of the US Republican Party. I can't see a Republican administration stating that they will be 'progressive'.

But stating that the UK Conservatives are the equivalent of the US Republicans is wrong. That is the problem with sharing the same language. UK politics and US politics are fundamentally different. There are no simple comparisons and political terms have very different interpretations between the UK and the US, and each has a long history.

When we consider wider European politics it gets even messier. The Mayor of Calais in France is a Communist. That would be impossible in the US or UK but her interpretation of communism is more like the UK's Labour Party than USSR's former communist party. French communism is socialist in the UK sense.

 

[Scotsman69]

How 'Brexit' was won by lies.

Most of us knew the 'leave' campaign told a pack of lies. Now there's hard reputable academic evidence. Have a look at this and ask yourself whether Parliament should indeed start Section 50 proceedings to take the UK out of the EU:

http://www.scottishreview.net/KennethRoy69a.html