GOP now at 25-year low in self-ID'd Republicans; independents peak

[Sean Renaud]

Thanks to losing the House, a few governorships, and the state lege during a redusitrcting year, Citizens United, and the loss of the VRA, I really wouldn't be so confident about this. There are a lot of seats to defend and voter suppression is going to be much harder to check.

On top of that, it's a midterm. OFA has proven it sucks at running any kind of election in which Barack Obama is not facing a comically weak candidate.

And there is the other thing that the ACA actually is unpopular, the Dems don't have much else to run on, and the economy is actually getting worse for most working people.

We lost the house way back in 2010 and I don't pretend to think this is going to be a good year thus far. I'm simply not buying that the Republicans will take control of the Senate.

The ACA is unpopular but a good chunk of the people who don't like it don't like it because they think it doesn't go far enough. I don't see any reason why those people should vote Republican. At worst they might stay home. Such is the case with a LOT of liberal ideas right now. Obama hasn't done much for the environment, he's given at most lip service to attempting to shut down Gitmo but my choices in voting come down to the guy who lies and says he'll try to do something for these issues and the guy who tells the truth that he supports these issues as is.

And the economy quite simply is not getting worse for anybody. Better however is largely a factor of perception and facts and figures don't really matter to people. That can be changed easily enough if OBama learns to brag.

 

[Setanta84]

And the economy quite simply is not getting worse for anybody. Better however is largely a factor of perception and facts and figures don't really matter to people. That can be changed easily enough if OBama learns to brag.

The labor force keeps shrinking--this is why the unemployment rate is going "down"--demand is still bad due to that, employers are cutting back on hours and benefits due largely to this--we just had another horrible Christmas sales season for the sixth Christmas in a row--and they just axed unemployment for the long-term unemployed. I'm not sure how you arrive at the conclusion that the economy isn't getting worse for "anybody."

Obama took the Hoover approach to this crisis. Unless he's wearing a wig and fellating Jamie Dimon, I'm not sure he could rationally brag about his record on the economy to anyone while presenting a truthful case.

 

[Sean Renaud]

The labor force keeps shrinking--this is why the unemployment rate is going "down"--demand is still bad due to that, employers are cutting back on hours and benefits due largely to this--we just had another horrible Christmas sales season for the sixth Christmas in a row--and they just axed unemployment for the long-term unemployed. I'm not sure how you arrive at the conclusion that the economy isn't getting worse for "anybody."

Obama took the Hoover approach to this crisis. Unless he's wearing a wig and fellating Jamie Dimon, I'm not sure he could rationally brag about his record on the economy to anyone while presenting a truthful case.

Unemployment is down year after year and median wages are up, granted realistically seven cents doesn't mean shit but it's still higher than it was before. It's getting better across the board. I suppose I shouldn't say anybody, after all someone did get fired but still it's trending in the right direction and that's regardless of if you look at the U3 or the U6.

He could point to the numbers, point the deficit shrinking, the ending wars. He could present a very truthful case, he won't however because he's terrible at it.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

What about the participation rate, food stamps, and extending unemployment.


Those are GOOD signs?

 

[Setanta84]

Unemployment is down year after year and median wages are up, granted realistically seven cents doesn't mean shit but it's still higher than it was before. It's getting better across the board. I suppose I shouldn't say anybody, after all someone did get fired but still it's trending in the right direction and that's regardless of if you look at the U3 or the U6.

Again, it's going down year after year because they are not counting people who "leave the workforce" or are underemployed. If you account for that and the fact that, at the rate of the current trends, we won't be at pre-"recession" employment for another five years--and even then it won't account for both the jobs that were lost AND those that are needed due to population growth--the employment figures are rather depressing. (Also, if you take into account things like the plight of American college students or the likely fate of both the unemployed and needy if Obama ever gets his Grand Betrayal, things get even more depressing.)

If you are looking at the picture from the POV of what is good for people, not what you can cite to win points in a debate match, there really is nothing to brag about or to take comfort in regarding the employment figures.

He could point to the numbers, point the deficit shrinking, the ending wars. He could present a very truthful case, he won't however because he's terrible at it.

Uh, deficit reduction in a demand crisis is not a good thing for most people in the short-term and everyone in the long-term. See: The Great Depression/Europe in the present-day.

And he's not ending the wars, either. We're still going to have mercs and "diplomats" on the ground en masse in both of the traditional wars we have going and he's kind of addicted to non-traditional warfare/extrajudicial mass killing/murder.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Again, it's going down year after year because they are not counting people who "leave the workforce" or are underemployed. If you account for that and the fact that, at the rate of the current trends, we won't be at pre-"recession" employment for another five years--and even then it won't account for both the jobs that were lost AND those that are needed due to population growth--the employment figures are rather depressing. (Also, if you take into account things like the plight of American college students or the likely fate of both the unemployed and needy if Obama ever gets his Grand Betrayal, things get even more depressing.)

That's incorrect. The U6 does track those who have left the workforce or are undermployed and that's down as well.

If you are looking at the picture from the POV of what is good for people, not what you can cite to win points in a debate match, there really is nothing to brag about or to take comfort in regarding the employment figures.

If you look at that from the POV of what is good for the people you have plenty to brag about. The problem being perception is king that's not in his favor, but you don't change perception by letting your opponents describe the landscape.

Uh, deficit reduction in a demand crisis is not a good thing for most people in the short-term and everyone in the long-term. See: The Great Depression/Europe in the present-day.

Agreed. However this is an issue of perception and people think that the deficit is a problem. It doesn't matter that the correct response was spend more that's not what people want to hear and that's not what was done.

And he's not ending the wars, either. We're still going to have mercs and "diplomats" on the ground en masse in both of the traditional wars we have going and he's kind of addicted to non-traditional warfare/extrajudicial mass killing/murder.

En masse? I assume you have numbers that justify that claim?

Yeah. . .most Americans don't give two shits about non-traditional extrajudicial mass killing. You sure you're an American?

 

[Boxlicker101]

I think if you look carefully, you'll see that people mistrust politicians of any party.

The reduction in GOP registrations might be a matter of being PC. It is, generally speaking, not considered PC to be a Republican. Of course, voting is by secret ballot, so party affiliation is immaterial in a general election.

 

[Sean Renaud]

I think if you look carefully, you'll see that people mistrust politicians of any party.

The reduction in GOP registrations might be a matter of being PC. It is, generally speaking, not considered PC to be a Republican. Of course, voting is by secret ballot, so party affiliation is immaterial in a general election.

Because Republicans over the last decade or more have proven themselves to be a hair shy of cartoon evil. Like I seriously have to wonder if they sit around wishing each other a "bad morning" before they have a good cackle and kick some puppies.

It is true that both parties are "distrusted" but that seems to in large be something that is just popular to say. It's the same way that Libertarians almost without fail are Republicans who at least don't want to be associated with Snidely Whiplash but lack the integrity to try and unfuck their party which is a shame since it's not like the party is ireedemible. It just needs to realize this is 2014 not 1950.

 

[KingOrfeo]

I think if you look carefully, you'll see that people mistrust politicians of any party.

The reduction in GOP registrations might be a matter of being PC. It is, generally speaking, not considered PC to be a Republican. Of course, voting is by secret ballot, so party affiliation is immaterial in a general election.

That straw is floating twelve inches beyond the furthest reach of your hand.

Sorry.