2004 General Election prediction...

I suppose I will get stoned for this, but I can't sit quietly on it any longer. I think what Mayor Newson is doing is the most cruel, self-aggrandizing and sickening political publicity stunt since Gov. Wallace called out the National guard to keep Alabama Schools from being desegregated. At least the Gov. had a shakey political foot to stand on, his contention that deseggregating was a reserve power of the states. Flimsey as that was. Newsome has nothing.

No state court in its right mind will uphold the right of a municipality to pass a law or take action that is in direct violation of a state law, no matter how they might personally feel about the issue involved. In the federal system Marriage, like owning a driver's liscence is receprocal. That is if you are recognized as being married in one state then you are recognized as being married in all. No federal court, no matter how liberal, no matter how they feel about the rightness or wrongness of gay marriage is going to say the city of San Francisco has the right to change the definition of marriage for the entire country, thus disenfranchising millions.

The state law in Cali was passed by inititive and was challenged up to the state supreme court, one of the most liberal in all of the U.S. and it was held to be constitutional. The lisences issued by the city of SF don't stand one chance in 1000 of being upheld. Even if a judge agrees ith the idea that descriminating due to sexual orientation is wrong, he can not uphold the right of a municipality to act in defiance of the state, it would lead to anarchy. A thousand different cities with their own separate rules and no overriding set of state law to give continuity as you drive across the state. No judge is going to sanction that.

So where does that leave the couples who got married. It leaves them going to bed one night thiking they are married, to wake up the next and find that marriage forceibly annuled by the state and further, that they never were legally married. And that is just fucking cruel, I don't care how you slice it.

To add insult to injury it will also galvanize the majority who voted for that inititive to anger and perhaps action. If Cali goes to the republicans this election, Mayor Newsome far more than the Governator should get the kudos from the GOP. The mayor has picked the one issue, in an election year, where you can split the California electorate into portions and have the majority (at least accoring to the way they voted on the inititive) standing on the republican side. GWB and his handlers could not have paid for such a windfall, it must certainly seem like divine intervention to him.

I am all for gay marriage. I believe that the Cali law is clearly discriminatory and clearly unconstituional. The state supreme court deemed otherwise. I am a political realist and this is clearly a disaster for those who hope to see GWB shoved out of office. One issue dosn't usually make up a person's mind about which way to vote, but in the minds of some people one issue can make the difference. I am sure the issue the democrats hope is first and foremost in the minds of Californians is the enviorment, the war in Iraq, the lies, the corruption, the 2000 vote, anything other than gay marriage. Newsome is busting his ass to make sure that is the one issue that is foremost and it's probably the only one where GWB can even hope to have the majority of californians on his side.

I am done with my little rant, you can start throwing stones now.

-Colly
 
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