Electoral College Math

[RobDownSouth]

Nice, to have the lead paragraph and then the rest is behind the pay wall.

The article have other great humor and inspiration for you? Or just funny to you that Biden is down in the polls.

When it comes to voting for a President with clear values and one who who has none, it’s fitting you will be voting for the later.

Keep cheering him on… it suits you.

go to archive.ph to bypass paywalls.
Here's the Atlantic article with paywall removed LINK

It's a good read.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Look another joke, just like betting on Nazi Ron??

I haven’t bet on any political races but thanks for bumping my posts.

 

[dkovic77]

I haven’t bet on any political races but thanks for bumping my posts.

Just to show how lost you are… that’s my fun.

 

[RobDownSouth]

I think Trump may have a shot at NY.

I don't think Trump has a chance in Hell of winning New York.

 

[icanhelp1]

I don't think Trump has a chance in Hell of winning New York.

We’ll see. He’s garnering a lot of support from blue collar.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

We’ll see. He’s garnering a lot of support from blue collar.

Care to bet you're lit name on it?

 

[dkovic77]

We’ll see. He’s garnering a lot of support from blue collar.

Part of the verdict will be he needs to wear a collar and it will be blue?

Not sure even that one would support him.

 

[Rightguide]

I don't think Trump has a chance in Hell of winning New York.

He looks like he has the police, fire, and construction union vote.

 

[DeluxAuto]

He looks like he has the police, fire, and construction union vote.

You hate unions. The commie leftist fucks!

 

[RobDownSouth]

You hate unions. The commie leftist fucks!

He's a situational union supporter.
He hates any and all private sector unions, because that's SOCIALISM.
Which leaves us with public sector unions.
School Teacher unions? Hell Naw! That's INDOCTRINATION!
Military Unions? Hell Naw! That's UN-AMERICAN!
Government Employee Unions? Hell Naw! That's GOVERNMENT WASTE!
FBI Unions? Hell Naw! That's LAWFARE!
Air Traffic Controllers Union? Hell Naw! That's COMMUNISM!
Border Patrol Unions? NOW WE'RE TALKING!
Police Unions? OH HELL YEAH!

 

[DeluxAuto]

He's a situational union supporter.
He hates any and all private sector unions, because that's SOCIALISM.
Which leaves us with public sector unions.
School Teacher unions? Hell Naw! That's INDOCTRINATION!
Military Unions? Hell Naw! That's UN-AMERICAN!
Government Employee Unions? Hell Naw! That's GOVERNMENT WASTE!
FBI Unions? Hell Naw! That's LAWFARE!
Air Traffic Controllers Union? Hell Naw! That's COMMUNISM!
Border Patrol Unions? NOW WE'RE TALKING!
Police Unions? OH HELL YEAH!

The mental gymnastics it takes to support the rapist fraudster must be exhausting.

 

[Bray123]

After Trump faked his speech to fake union workers at a non-union site it's hard to see any union members supporting him. The abuse that the police had on J6 and the unpaid overtime bills from his fly in/out speeches won't help either.

 

[Comshaw]

Biden’s Electoral College Challenge​

President Joe Biden won a decisive Electoral College victory in 2020 by restoring old Democratic advantages in the Rust Belt while establishing new beachheads in the Sun Belt. But this year, his position in polls has weakened on both fronts. The result is that, even this far from Election Day, signs are developing that Biden could face a last-mile problem in the Electoral College.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...ctoral-college-problem/678260/?utm_source=msn

CNN in 2016

New poll shows Clinton over Trump by double-digits
The results showing Clinton with a growing lead largely match CNN’s Poll of Polls, which averages recent national surveys. That Poll of Polls shows Clinton ahead 48% to Trump’s 39%.

"Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana


Comshaw

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

CNN in 2016

"Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it." George Santayana


Comshaw

1. Read The Atlantic article. It’s not about a national poll. It’s about the electoral college. It provides an analysis of the electoral college with a focus on the handful of states that have been deciding recent national elections.

2. Most 2016 national polls had Clinton ahead by a small margin and indeed, she won the popular vote.

 

[MajorRewrite]

2. Most 2016 national polls had Clinton ahead by a small margin and indeed, she won the popular vote.

Don’t let MAGAs catch you saying that! Admitting that Clinton and Biden won the popular vote by millions is a lynching offense, according to Trump.

 

[dkovic77]

1. Read The Atlantic article. It’s not about a national poll. It’s about the electoral college. It provides an analysis of the electoral college with a focus on the handful of states that have been deciding recent national elections.

2. Most 2016 national polls had Clinton ahead by a small margin and indeed, she won the popular vote.

Just be careful to read the article from his link and not the Atlantic… he doesn’t have that subscription either.

No overwhelming voter fraud allowing her to win pop vote then? Oh, that’s right.. the grifter won the electoral college so he didn’t care as much….

 

[Comshaw]

1. Read The Atlantic article. It’s not about a national poll. It’s about the electoral college. It provides an analysis of the electoral college with a focus on the handful of states that have been deciding recent national elections.

2. Most 2016 national polls had Clinton ahead by a small margin and indeed, she won the popular vote.

Oh FFS. They had Clinton ahead by 12 points! That's a lot more than a "small margin". Most polls outside of 5% difference are considered to be accurate. Didn't happen then did it?

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html


And it doesn't matter if they are analyzing the Electoral College or the popular vote. They were wrong once and might be again. So crowing about who's ahead could be a stupid mistake just like it was in 2016.

Comshaw

 

[YDB95]

It is almost never worth making Electoral College predictions this far out, or really any time before Labor Day. And lest we forget, Biden doesn't actually need to pick up any new states to win, he just has to keep most of the states he won last time. And the fall of Roe was a game changer. There's no question that will move the needle - the only thing we don't know is by how much. But the Dems have overperformed in just about every special election since then.

 

[Chernosoth]

I would start with the probability that an election happens. And then how much various organizations and election influencers try to control it, and how much they succeed. And then how much turnout actually happens. While the betters expect a race and pick their horses, the contestants might be preparing for a demolition derby.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Oh FFS. They had Clinton ahead by 12 points! That's a lot more than a "small margin". Most polls outside of 5% difference are considered to be accurate. Didn't happen then did it?

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html


And it doesn't matter if they are analyzing the Electoral College or the popular vote. They were wrong once and might be again. So crowing about who's ahead could be a stupid mistake just like it was in 2016.

Comshaw

There’s a poll out today that has Trump up by 8 points. Do you believe it? Neither do I. It’s what’s called an outlier. Trump’s lead in the RCP average is 1.5 points.

Hillary never had a 12 point lead in the RCP average. The CNN poll was an outlier. There were swings in the six months leading up to Election Day, and Hillary was on top most of the time, but her lead never broke 8 points. Her lead in the RCP polling average on election day was 2.8 points. When the votes were counted, she beat Trump by 2 points. The RCP average was pretty darn close to the actual results. But in the electoral college count, the count that matters, Hillary lost to Trump 304 to 227.

The attached graphs illustrate the state of the national polls in the six months leading up to the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Key takeaways:

• Don’t immediately jump to conclusions if you see a poll that diverges significantly from all the major polls.
• The aggregate numbers from major polling firms have tracked pretty closely to actual results. Within 2 points in the last two elections.
• Key Point: The popular vote doesn’t decide the winner. The electoral college does. Hence the importance of paying close attention to what’s happening in the swing states. The Atlantic article provides a balanced summary of the challenges facing Biden in key states.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Just be careful to read the article from his link and not the Atlantic… he doesn’t have that subscription either.

No overwhelming voter fraud allowing her to win pop vote then? Oh, that’s right.. the grifter won the electoral college so he didn’t care as much….

Glad you were able to figure out how to access and read the article. Hope you enjoyed it. Hillary won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. Biden won both. As always, thanks for reading and bumping my posts.

 

[dmallord]

He rode a porn star… does that count?

Ninety seconds isn't considered a 'ride,' is it? More like the old buck rabbit joke: 'Bunny girl, this won't hurt. Did it?'

 

[dkovic77]

Glad you were able to figure out how to access and read the article. Hope you enjoyed it. Hillary won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. Biden won both. As always, thanks for reading and bumping my posts.

No thanks to you who can’t seem to site a source properly. Wasn’t even a source you could have seen originally either.

Look, an agreement on basic facts of history of elections. Who knew that was possible. Most of you MAGA “thinkers” still claim the results were different. But yes, Biden did win both. I do believe even the propoganda network was officially the first to call it too. Rupert was eager even then to move on….

Guessing you are still hoping your little Nazi gets to be VP….he would say yes in a heartbeat but of course there is a residency issue. Can’t win FL since electors are prohibited from voting for two people from their home state. Guess the Cheeto will have to “move” back to NY because no way they would just concede the sunshine votes.

Ninety seconds isn't considered a 'ride,' is it? More like the old buck rabbit joke: 'Bunny girl, this won't hurt. Did it?'

It was 90 seconds? That much???

I’m sure he was paying by the minute.

 

[dkovic77]

There’s a poll out today that has Trump up by 8 points. Do you believe it? Neither do I. It’s what’s called an outlier. Trump’s lead in the RCP average is 1.5 points.

Hillary never had a 12 point lead in the RCP average. The CNN poll was an outlier. There were swings in the six months leading up to Election Day, and Hillary was on top most of the time, but her lead never broke 8 points. Her lead in the RCP polling average on election day was 2.8 points. When the votes were counted, she beat Trump by 2 points. The RCP average was pretty darn close to the actual results. But in the electoral college count, the count that matters, Hillary lost to Trump 304 to 227.

The attached graphs illustrate the state of the national polls in the six months leading up to the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Key takeaways:

• Don’t immediately jump to conclusions if you see a poll that diverges significantly from all the major polls.
• The aggregate numbers from major polling firms have tracked pretty closely to actual results. Within 2 points in the last two elections.
• Key Point: The popular vote doesn’t decide the winner. The electoral college does. Hence the importance of paying close attention to what’s happening in the swing states. The Atlantic article provides a balanced summary of the challenges facing Biden in key states.

Can there be a key point inside of the key takeaways discussing key states?

 

[Lazaran]

It isn’t math, but we do know what happens when "republicans" LOSE the popular vote and LOSE the electoral college.



Imagine what would happen if the "republicans" LOSE the electoral college but win the popular vote.



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