Electoral College Math

[dkovic77]

I’m proud of you for figuring it out. And as always, thanks for bumping my posts.

Yup, glad to keep pointing out your errors. There are so many, it’s easy.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Yup, glad to keep pointing out your errors. There are so many, it’s easy.

Always happy to educate you and always appreciate you bumping my posts.

 

[Comshaw]

There’s a poll out today that has Trump up by 8 points. Do you believe it? Neither do I. It’s what’s called an outlier. Trump’s lead in the RCP average is 1.5 points.

Hillary never had a 12 point lead in the RCP average. The CNN poll was an outlier. There were swings in the six months leading up to Election Day, and Hillary was on top most of the time, but her lead never broke 8 points. Her lead in the RCP polling average on election day was 2.8 points. When the votes were counted, she beat Trump by 2 points. The RCP average was pretty darn close to the actual results. But in the electoral college count, the count that matters, Hillary lost to Trump 304 to 227.

The attached graphs illustrate the state of the national polls in the six months leading up to the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Key takeaways:

• Don’t immediately jump to conclusions if you see a poll that diverges significantly from all the major polls.
• The aggregate numbers from major polling firms have tracked pretty closely to actual results. Within 2 points in the last two elections.
• Key Point: The popular vote doesn’t decide the winner. The electoral college does. Hence the importance of paying close attention to what’s happening in the swing states. The Atlantic article provides a balanced summary of the challenges facing Biden in key states.

your calling a CNN poll and outlier? Really? So where did you get the 2.8 point spread you quoted? I'd say that was an outlier. Why? This:

According to the chart here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio..._the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

In a two-way race on November 8th 2016 it ranged from a low of 3.1 to a high of 5.3 in favor of Clinton from 6 different polling authorizes.

What ever. I'm going to be done here. I can tell no matter what is presented you're going to "but" it to death. You go right ahead and believe anything you wish to. For my part, after the 2016 election and how much in error the polls were, I'm not banking on anything the pollsters tell me. "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me".



Comshaw

 

[dkovic77]

Always happy to educate you and always appreciate you bumping my posts.

There hasn’t been an instance of you educating me aside from learning how much of a joke you think all of this is. Instead of having values you just think things are a joke- which would hopefully explain your support of the little Nazi Ronnie.


So yeah, keeping the thread bumped up to keep pointing out your issue…undercuts all you even attempt to point out.