President Trump will be re-elected in 2020 and this is why...

[YDB95]

YDB95 writes: "While that says a lot about a bad habit Democrats have in general, it doesn't have anything to do with Obama's popularity among the general public."

So HOW EXACTLY has Barack Obama's popularity helped Democrats?

I remember back in 2009, when our very popular President Obama flew Air Force One up to Massachusetts to campaign for the Democrat candidate trying to win Ted Kennedy's vacated U.S. Senate seat! And the Democrat LOST - in ultra-liberal Massachusetts!

Because the Democratic nominee was such complete scum even I would have voted Republican in that election. Nothing to do with Obama (who carried MA easily in 2012 as the Dems reclaimed that Senate seat).

"My black friends admire Obama greatly"

I don't know your black friends. You could be making the whole thing up. I believe that you're an honest person, YDB95, but you are hardly an arbiter of the black race.

I'm not the one claiming to be. You keep saying black voters are deserting the Democrats in droves, yet you haven't offered up a shred of evidence to support your claim.

 

[Dumpington]

YDB95 writes: "Because the Democratic nominee was such complete scum even I would have voted Republican in that election. Nothing to do with Obama (who carried MA easily in 2012 as the Dems reclaimed that Senate seat)."

So... in 2009, President Obama flies Air Force One all the way up to Massachusetts to campaign for a U.S. Senate candidate who was, in your own words: "complete scum?" Yes, I can actually see that happening, YDB95 - after all, didn't Barack (and Michelle) do pretty much that exact same thing in the 2016 presidential election, campaigning alongside a scummy-candidate in key swing states like Florida, North Carolina, & Pennsylvania?

"You keep saying black voters are deserting the Democrats in droves, yet you haven't offered up a shred of evidence to support your claim."

Not "one shred," eh? - okay, how about this: back in 2008 (and again in 2012), Barack Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan, & Wisconsin - worth 48 electoral votes (but dropping down to 46 electoral votes in '12) - thanks to a massive black voter turn-out in Philadelphia, Detroit, & Milwaukee, correct? But then, in 2016, the black voter turn-out in those major urban areas grows noticeably more SHALLOW for some odd reason, and those three states STOP voting Democrat! I WONDER WHY that was?

It's almost as if some major Democratic Party constituency was deserting that party in droves - but which constituency could it possibly have been?

 

[YDB95]

Not "one shred," eh? - okay, how about this: back in 2008 (and again in 2012), Barack Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan, & Wisconsin - worth 48 electoral votes (but dropping down to 46 electoral votes in '12) - thanks to a massive black voter turn-out in Philadelphia, Detroit, & Milwaukee, correct? But then, in 2016, the black voter turn-out in those major urban areas grows noticeably more SHALLOW for some odd reason, and those three states STOP voting Democrat! I WONDER WHY that was?

1. Russia
2. Clinton had a lousy track record with black voters ("Superpredators," etc.)
3. She was overconfident in those states.

But they didn't vote for Trump, which is what you have predicted elsewhere for 2020. And the Dems cleaned up in all three of those states in 2018.

 

[Boxlicker101]

YDB95 writes: "Because the Democratic nominee was such complete scum even I would have voted Republican in that election. Nothing to do with Obama (who carried MA easily in 2012 as the Dems reclaimed that Senate seat)."

So... in 2009, President Obama flies Air Force One all the way up to Massachusetts to campaign for a U.S. Senate candidate who was, in your own words: "complete scum?" Yes, I can actually see that happening, YDB95 - after all, didn't Barack (and Michelle) do pretty much that exact same thing in the 2016 presidential election, campaigning alongside a scummy-candidate in key swing states like Florida, North Carolina, & Pennsylvania?

"You keep saying black voters are deserting the Democrats in droves, yet you haven't offered up a shred of evidence to support your claim."

Not "one shred," eh? - okay, how about this: back in 2008 (and again in 2012), Barack Obama won Pennsylvania, Michigan, & Wisconsin - worth 48 electoral votes (but dropping down to 46 electoral votes in '12) - thanks to a massive black voter turn-out in Philadelphia, Detroit, & Milwaukee, correct? But then, in 2016, the black voter turn-out in those major urban areas grows noticeably more SHALLOW for some odd reason, and those three states STOP voting Democrat! I WONDER WHY that was?

It's almost as if some major Democratic Party constituency was deserting that party in droves - but which constituency could it possibly have been?

This is not totally correct for all three of the states mentioned. There is no breakdown by race of voters. There is also none by city, but there is by county, so I used that.

In Milwaukee, Clinton's percentage of votes was 65.48%, compared to 67.49% for Obama in 2012. This seems small, but it translated to over 43,000 votes, which was about Trumps margin of victory in WI.

In Wayne Co., MI, the drop-off in percentage for Clinton was over 6% and the vote diff. was over 65,000 votes. That was what cost her MI.

PA was not that simple. For Phila., the drop in percentage for Hillary was less than 3% and in votes it was a little over 3,000. More than making up for this was Pittsburgh, where the percentage was almost the same and Hillary received 15,000 more votes than Obama.

In PA, Silly Hilly apparently lost in rural areas and the suburbs.

I noticed something else odd, or maybe not so odd. Obama won 85.29% of the votes in Philadelphia Co. in 2012 and Hillary won 82.53% in 2016. Such high percentages make my highly suspicious of the honesty of the elections.

 

[YDB95]

I noticed something else odd, or maybe not so odd. Obama won 85.29% of the votes in Philadelphia Co. in 2012 and Hillary won 82.53% in 2016. Such high percentages make my highly suspicious of the honesty of the elections.

There is nothing unusual about Democrats running up margins like that in urban centres like Philadelphia. Republicans win by the same or sometimes even more in places like the Texas panhandle.

 

[magicalmoments]

I really hope trump wins 2020. Best reality TV show in the world.

 

[Boxlicker101]

There is nothing unusual about Democrats running up margins like that in urban centres like Philadelphia. Republicans win by the same or sometimes even more in places like the Texas panhandle.

You're right. Since this was Philly County, I thought there would be some suburbs which would have more GOP voters. However, the city of Philly is the only municipality in the county, and they are traditionally very staunchly Dem.

 

[Dumpington]

YDB95's reasons for Wisconsin, Michigan, & Pennsylvania all abandoning the Democratic Party in 2016:

1. Russia - Yeah, too bad that Robert Mueller's long investigation shot that whole "Russia collusion" theory down in his report that followed!

2. Clinton had a lousy track record with black voters ("Superpredators," etc.) - Black voters dislike MOST old white liberals, NOT just Mrs. Clinton!

3. She was overconfident in those states. - Hillary, like MOST modern Democrats, fervently believed in those polls that insisted that Trump couldn't possible defeat her! And even today, they CONTINUE to believe their polling!

magicalmoments writes: "I really hope trump wins 2020."

There isn't a Democratic Party candidate currently running who can defeat him - unless you STILL believe those polls that predicted Hillary would win in '16!

 

[magicalmoments]

[QUOTE Dumpington
There isn't a Democratic Party candidate currently running who can defeat him - unless you STILL believe those polls that predicted Hillary would win in '16![/QUOTE]

As an independent outsider I believe this deplorable is right. None of the democratic contenders have what it takes to beat trump.
Several would make far better presidents than the moronic, narcissistic, criminal, lying, untrustworthy, inarticulate and spiteful douchbag that is trump.
He is alienating all of your traditional allies, he is the laughing stock of the world. He is being played like a fool by North Korea and by Russia, your country's traditional rivals. His socialist intervention in the free market economy of the world will destroy the country from within, the socialists proved that the controlled economy is a failure, trump will find the same but will never admit he was wrong.
I sincerely hope he does manage to survive politically for the next year, which is unlikely now as the banks are starting to release his banking records, because as I've said before his destruction of the USA as a world power is going to be the best reality TV show ever. I can't wait.

 

[YDB95]

2. Clinton had a lousy track record with black voters ("Superpredators," etc.) - Black voters dislike MOST old white liberals, NOT just Mrs. Clinton!

In your mind, I'm sure that's right. I sincerely doubt you've actually talked to anyone in the know about that, though.

 

[magicalmoments]

I agree with the OP.
In the absence of impeachment for treason or death, trump will win the 2020 presidential election.
Not because of his limited political skills but because the opposition cannot find a credible candidate to stand against him.
Trump will do what he does best, host an incredible reality TV show for the amusement of the world while all those liberals pull their hair out in frustration.

 

[Dumpington]

magicalmoments writes: "He is being played like a fool by North Korea and by Russia, your country's traditional rivals."

WHEN did North Korea become a traditional rival of the United States? That nation has ALWAYS been a weak nobody of little importance to the U.S., although a North Korea possessing nukes does threaten our allies in Japan & South Korea. Yes, North Korea certainly played our President Clinton for a fool when Bill signed that deal giving them vital supplies in return for NOTHING - but Trump isn't Clinton.

As for Russia, the pro-socialist liberal Democrats in the U.S. always admired the Communist Soviet Union, dating back to the FDR presidency, but Ronald Reagan DESTROYED that nation in 1991. Russia is [/I]NO LONGER[/I] the U.S.S.R. Yes, Russia certainly played our President Obama for a fool when Barack looked the other way while Russia wrested the Crimean peninsula away from the Ukraine, along with seizing other portions of eastern Ukraine for itself - but Trump isn't Obama!

"In the absence of impeachment for treason or death, trump will win the 2020 presidential election."

He will - the Democratic Party has two dozen losers running for their party's 2020 nomination, and that party's congressional leadership is ALSO badly fragmented. Trump's going to be EASILY re-elected next year, as most Republican incumbent-presidents are (the sole exception being George H.W. Bush, who had to contend with a strong third-party challenge from Ross Perot in 1992!)

YDB95 writes: "In your mind, I'm sure that's right."

The Democratic Party's message to black voters for 2020 is that Elijah Cummings' 7th U.S. Congressional District in Maryland is actually a fine place to live, and that anybody pointing-out all of the rat-&-rodent-infested neighborhoods existing there is racist! The black citizens of west Baltimore need to be MORE concerned about the Nazi-style death camps that exist all along the Rio Grande River (according to New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) where the Trump administration's "Final Solution" involves murdering six-million Mexicans!

Liberal-progressives (aka: the Democrats) here in America have got to be some of the most IGNORANT people on our planet, knowing zilch about history (and even LESS about economics), which explains why they CAN'T beat Trump!

 

[magicalmoments]

Ummmm... History. Did you never watch MASH. 50000 USA servicemen gave their lives in the Korean War and what's more the war never ended, officially you, and NZ, are still at war with the North Koreans, right now. That's why the USA is currently holding war games in South Korea. They are your enemy.
Trump has won absolutely nothing from little rocket man, not a thing. He's had a couple of photo ops and is pushing hard for a Nobel peace prize but I think not

 

[BotanyBoy]

As for Russia, the pro-socialist liberal Democrats in the U.S. always admired the Communist Soviet Union,

You still haven't figured out what a liberal is.

 

[BotanyBoy]

Ummmm... History. Did you never watch MASH. 50000 USA servicemen gave their lives in the Korean War and what's more the war never ended, officially you, and NZ, are still at war with the North Koreans, right now. That's why the USA is currently holding war games in South Korea. They are your enemy.
Trump has won absolutely nothing from little rocket man, not a thing. He's had a couple of photo ops and is pushing hard for a Nobel peace prize but I think not

And why do you think that is?

 

[dan_c00000]

And why do you think that is?

Because Truman didn't want to "lose" Korea like he "lost" China. It had nothing to do with Communism and everything to do with a foolish international strategy (containment).

 

[Dumpington]

magicalmoments writes: "Did you never watch MASH. 50000 USA servicemen gave their lives in the Korean War and what's more the war never ended, officially you, and NZ, are still at war with the North Koreans, right now."

Yes, I watched "M*A*S*H" and I know all about the Korean War - United Nations military forces led by the United States STOPPED North Korea from conquering South Korea, and today South Korea is an economic giant with the people of that nation enjoying material success and a very high standard of living while those people in the north have endured bouts of starvation & non-stop political oppression.

President Trump is the first U.S. president in AGES to make serious strides to put an end to that conflict, which continues the threaten people in cities like Seoul and across the Sea of Japan in Tokyo. But I'd hardly call the DPRK a serious rival to the United States! The U.S. military has FAR greater concerns with more economically viable nations like China & Russia (and also Iran)!

"Trump has won absolutely nothing from little rocket man, not a thing."

Not yet - but are you now saying that you wish he hadn't made the EFFORT to establish a personal relationship with Kim Jong-un? Back in the 1990's, President Clinton negotiated briefly with the North Korean government, even signing a lucrative deal that sent food & money to Kim Jong-un's dad in exchange for promising to stop his nuclear program, which Kim Jong-il promptly ignored. Trump is making his OWN deal dependent on North Korea getting rid of its nuclear ambitions, which I support!

BotanyBoy writes: "You still haven't figured out what a liberal is."

I know what liberal Democrats USED to be - they used to love America and support capitalism, despite promoting a tax-&-spend economy. Modern "liberals" are all about SIX things: 1) pro-socialism, 2) pro-abortion, 3) pro-atheism, 4) pro-transgendered, 5) pro-open-borders, and 6) pro-Islamic (for some toally bizarre reason, as Muslims do NOT support gay and/or women's rights in ANY Islamic-run nation on our planet today!)

 

[jp55665566]

I know what liberal Democrats USED to be - they used to love America and support capitalism, despite promoting a tax-&-spend economy. Modern "liberals" are all about SIX things: 1) pro-socialism, 2) pro-abortion, 3) pro-atheism, 4) pro-transgendered, 5) pro-open-borders, and 6) pro-Islamic (for some totally bizarre reason, as Muslims do NOT support gay and/or women's rights in ANY Islamic-run nation on our planet today!)

I guess that why Gropin' Joe Biden couldn't figure how many genders there are... "at least three" << hahaha !

 

[Dumpington]

dan_c00000 writes: "Because Truman didn't want to "lose" Korea like he "lost" China."

President Truman had already stood by and watched as the Soviet Union had enslaved most of eastern Europe (e.g. Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Bulgaria, Romania, & Albania), and he didn't want to see South Korea subject to that same kind of tyranny.

Again, look at capitalist South Korea today and then compare it with the DPRK (aka: North Korea), and then tell me that we should have stood by and done nothing while Kim Il-Sung's forces gobbled-up that country. Liberal Democrats in the U.S. today who admire Marxist-Socialist nations (like Cuba) really don't care about the massive suffering (and even genocide) that has existed in countries like Soviet Russia (in the 1930's), Red China (in the 1950's), or Cambodia (in 1975)!

"It had nothing to do with Communism and everything to do with a foolish international strategy (containment)."

Communism is a LOT like Germany's Nazism in that it puts a very low value on human life. We opted to DESTROY Hitler's Germany, whereas in the case of Communism we instead attempted (successfully) to keep it from spreading worldwide. Today, the Marxist-socialist world of communism world is in full retreat. Russia adandoned it in the 1990's, while China has at least embraced capitalism (if not democracy!)

The ONLY places where Marxist-socialism remains politically powerful are Cuba, North Korea, and in the U.S. Democratic Party (where it's enjoying a resurgence) thanks to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, & Liz Warren (and a few of the other nobodies currently running for president)!

 

[BotanyBoy]

Because Truman didn't want to "lose" Korea like he "lost" China.

Lose them to what?

It had nothing to do with Communism and everything to do with a foolish international strategy (containment).

Containment of what???

Hint: the same anti-American politics you openly support Dan.

 

[Matt12191982]

Trump will only win if Bernie doesn't get the nomination

 

[magicalmoments]

Unless he is impeached or dies there is no doubt trump will get his second term. The only reason for this is primarily that the opposition will fail to find a credible candidate to oppose him. There are secondary reasons associated with the archaic electoral system the USA uses and Thomas jeffersons assertion that the republic requires a public educated in the oversight of govt. I suspect the trump base somehow missed those classes in their education.

It has always amazed me how little USA citizens understand communism.
Without wanting to bore people with some inane lecture drawn from dubious sources I suggest that you get a copy of Marx's Communist Manifesto and read it. If you can find one country in the world that is organised and managed on Communist principles, as set out by Marx I'd be extremely surprised.
Marx was not setting out an alternative political philosophy to western democracy. He was laying out what he, mistakenly, saw as an unavoidable consequence of natural political evolution. He saw communism as an inevitable consequence of human history. He was wrong. Every revolutionary that has attempted to force history down the corridor that Marx prophesied as inevitable has ended in failure, simply because Marx's insight was flawed, just plain wrong. The label, "communism" that we blindly stick on regimes like Cuba and North Korea and China say more about western ignorance than the countries to which it is applied.

The reason bad leaders, like trump and Johnston are elected in the west is because we the people have not been educated in the proper oversight of government. Jefferson was one of the great minds, if deeply flawed himself, of human history yet his gift to the world is being squandered.

Still, as I've said before it makes for the best reality TV show ever produced.

 

[Dumpington]

Matt12191982 writes: "Trump will only win if Bernie doesn't get the nomination"

Bernie WON'T get the nomination - and Trump WILL win - but I'd LOVE to see Bernie bolt the Democratic Party and run his own third-party campaign after they reject him a second time! That would be AWESOME!

magicalmoments writes: "Unless he is impeached or dies there is no doubt trump will get his second term"

Impeaching Trump will NOT remove him from office or hurt his re-election chances! The Democratic Party doesn't come anywhere CLOSE to having the necessary votes in the U.S. Senate to end his presidency, and impeaching him would only create a backlash among the American public wondering why the Dems are wasting their time & money on such a useless endeavor!

"It has always amazed me how little USA citizens understand communism."

What's to understand? Communism has been an oppressive failure in Russia, China, Cuba, North Korea, & everywhere else where it's been implemented! Lenin, Stalin, Mao, & Pol Pot were all genocidal monsters, with Mao & Stalin even murdering MORE people than did Adolf Hitler! Karl Marx had this great idea on paper, only we now know that he was full of sh*t after the deaths of tens of millions of people who were forced to experience his idea firsthand!

 

[icanhelp1]

Unless he is impeached or dies there is no doubt trump will get his second term. The only reason for this is primarily that the opposition will fail to find a credible candidate to oppose him. There are secondary reasons associated with the archaic electoral system the USA uses and Thomas jeffersons assertion that the republic requires a public educated in the oversight of govt. I suspect the trump base somehow missed those classes in their education.

It has always amazed me how little USA citizens understand communism.
Without wanting to bore people with some inane lecture drawn from dubious sources I suggest that you get a copy of Marx's Communist Manifesto and read it. If you can find one country in the world that is organised and managed on Communist principles, as set out by Marx I'd be extremely surprised.
Marx was not setting out an alternative political philosophy to western democracy. He was laying out what he, mistakenly, saw as an unavoidable consequence of natural political evolution. He saw communism as an inevitable consequence of human history. He was wrong. Every revolutionary that has attempted to force history down the corridor that Marx prophesied as inevitable has ended in failure, simply because Marx's insight was flawed, just plain wrong. The label, "communism" that we blindly stick on regimes like Cuba and North Korea and China say more about western ignorance than the countries to which it is applied.

The reason bad leaders, like trump and Johnston are elected in the west is because we the people have not been educated in the proper oversight of government. Jefferson was one of the great minds, if deeply flawed himself, of human history yet his gift to the world is being squandered.

Still, as I've said before it makes for the best reality TV show ever produced.

Back 50 years ago those countries would have been considered communist. Today, Communism and socialism really don't have the self identifying properties they had 50 years ago. In today's global economy most communist countries are hybrid combination of both communism and socialism. Countries like China, Cuba, Laos and Vietnam have their roots in communism and still have a one party central government but most world leaders would consider them communist in name only. They sometimes act like communist, sometimes like socialist and steeped in capitalism. I believe N Korea is the only hard line communist country in the world today.

Pretty presumptuous of you to identify Trump as a bad leader. Why don't you let history determine that.

We are a republic with 3 co-equal branches of government with a built in system of checks and balances. We have alienable rights and a constitution which consist of 27 amendments that protect our freedoms. Most Americans don't really care about what countries are communist or socialist. We are about " WE THE PEOPLE". I do agree that in order to protect our freedoms we have to have an educated electorate, one that is aware of the traps that could jeopardize our way of life. It would appear we are leaning toward democratic socialism, my humble opinion, I pray we don't.

I read the Communist Manifesto ( Carl Marx ) and Mein Kampf ( Adolf Hitler ), mandatory reading when I was in high school and college.

 

[Boxlicker101]

Matt12191982 writes: "Trump will only win if Bernie doesn't get the nomination"

Bernie WON'T get the nomination - and Trump WILL win - but I'd LOVE to see Bernie bolt the Democratic Party and run his own third-party campaign after they reject him a second time! That would be AWESOME!

magicalmoments writes: "Unless he is impeached or dies there is no doubt trump will get his second term"

Impeaching Trump will NOT remove him from office or hurt his re-election chances! The Democratic Party doesn't come anywhere CLOSE to having the necessary votes in the U.S. Senate to end his presidency, and impeaching him would only create a backlash among the American public wondering why the Dems are wasting their time & money on such a useless endeavor!

"It has always amazed me how little USA citizens understand communism."

What's to understand? Communism has been an oppressive failure in Russia, China, Cuba, North Korea, & everywhere else where it's been implemented! Lenin, Stalin, Mao, & Pol Pot were all genocidal monsters, with Mao & Stalin even murdering MORE people than did Adolf Hitler! Karl Marx had this great idea on paper, only we now know that he was full of sh*t after the deaths of tens of millions of people who were forced to experience his idea firsthand!

Bernie might win the nomination but, if he does, he will lose in a monumental landslide. Bernie would be doing well to even carry his home state of VT and DC. It's even possible he would get no electoral votes at all. Biden was the only candidate with a chance of winning the general election, but he now seems to be afflicted by galloping senility, and might spend the primary season in a padded cell.

I'm reasonably sure there will be no impeachment of Trump. Nancy Pelosi and others have sense enough to know there s no chance of a conviction in the Senate, so the only thing an impeachment would accomplish would be to piss off the electorate over the waste of time and money.