The Economy

[SevMax2]

https://imgur.com/4sgJoMw

Well, Ben Stein is basically a Nixonian/Reaganite brand of conservative Republican (he wrote speeches for Nixon). To the extent that Trump has any consistent political philosophy at all, he's closer to a paleo-con at times, not unlike Pat Buchanan (who also wrote speeches for Nixon and Reagan, iirc,) in some ways, but without the social conservative baggage. No shocks that Ben Stein would uphold Reaganite economic positions.

 

[Bray123]

Harris Recession

https://twitter.com/x/status/1836103924832702553

Are you saying that Truth Social has finally gone under and it's Biden's fault?

 

[MajorRewrite]

US 30-year mortgage rate falls to two-year low

The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped 14 basis points in the week ended Sept. 13, to 6.15%, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. That was the lowest rate since Sept 2022, and followed a 14-basis-point drop the previous week.

Applications for home loans, refinancing, and purchases all jumped last week, the MBA said, citing lower borrowing costs and improved housing affordability as home prices rose more slowly.

US mortgage rates peaked about 11 months ago at near 8%.

 

[MajorRewrite]

US single-family housing starts surge in August

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, surged 15.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 992,00 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Data for July was revised higher to show starts falling to a rate of 857,000 units instead of the previously reported 851,000 pace.

Some of the decline in starts in July was blamed on Hurricane Beryl.

Good news. ️

 

[SevMax2]

US single-family housing starts surge in August



Good news. ️

Well, I was here for Hurricane Beryl. It was a real mess and the local power companies made it worse, especially CenterPoint. The Governor had to scold them very sharply for their failure. What else Governor Abbott will do....probably depends on how much they gave to his campaign. As for housing, there's a boom out here in East Texas. A lot of it is coming from transplants from outside of Texas, just like me.

 

[RobDownSouth]

The so-called "smart money" is banking on a Fed rate cut on September 30th. They have folks originating mortgage loans now with "step down" clauses that can be used exactly once to lock in a lower rate, if the prime rate is revised downward as expected.

Keep in mind, though, that that the "smart money" also bet heavily on a rate cut back on July 1st that never happened, leaving a shit-ton of mortgage traders who make their living on the fringes of the market exposed. Lots of animosity ensued.

In retrospect, it would appear that the fed kept the rate artificially high for dubious reasons ("sky high inflation") in order to stifle housing starts under President Joe Biden during the run up to the upcoming election, crippling his chances for re-election as the summer dragged on. That maneuver backfired spectacularly though when Biden chose not to run for re-election, and a rate cut now is seen as actually boosting the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris.

 

[Noitall]

Idiot^^^

The cut is today

 

[RobDownSouth]

Idiot^^^

The cut is today

You are correct, and I was mistaken. I apologize for the error.
Care to wager if it will be a quarter point drop or a half point drop?
I'm going to speculate it's the latter.

 

[SevMax2]

Fed would be kicking themselves if they didn't cut it enough and the government shuts down next month. That is a distinct possibility, too.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Interestingly, the rate announcement will be made at 2 pm EST today, allowing the stock market two hours to overreact. I thought they only released rate changes after the market closed?

Also said today that they will "revisit" rates on November 7th, two days before the presidential election.

 

[SevMax2]

Interestingly, the rate announcement will be made at 2 pm EST today, allowing the stock market two hours to overreact. I thought they only released rate changes after the market closed?

Also said today that they will "revisit" rates on November 7th, two days before the presidential election.

Interesting statement. I wonder if they are worried about the consequences of a particular candidate's victory, and if so, which one? Maybe they're worried about divided government if Trump wins and the Dems take Congress? Or vice versa.

 

[Noitall]

You are correct, and I was mistaken. I apologize for the error.
Care to wager if it will be a quarter point drop or a half point drop?
I'm going to speculate it's the latter.

25

 

[Noitall]

11 MINUTES TO GO

ACCORDING TO THE MARKET61% CHANCE OF A 50 BPS CUT

39% CHANCE OF A 25 BPS CUT

 

[Noitall]

You are correct, and I was mistaken. I apologize for the error.
Care to wager if it will be a quarter point drop or a half point drop?
I'm going to speculate it's the latter.

you were right

I was wrong

 

[MajorRewrite]

Fed lowers interest rates by half point in first cut since 2020

The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by a half percentage point Wednesday and charted a course for two additional cuts this year followed by four more in 2025.

The action marks the Fed’s first easing of monetary policy since 2020 and the termination of its most aggressive inflation-fighting campaign since the 1980s.

Rates had previously been held at a 23-year high since July 2023.

 

[RobDownSouth]

You are correct, and I was mistaken. I apologize for the error.
Care to wager if it will be a quarter point drop or a half point drop?
I'm going to speculate it's the latter.

Fecking hell....I nailed it.
One Half Point Drop. Bigliest drop in some time.
The Fed is convinced that inflation is manageable in this economy with a drop of that magnitude.
Rightguide will be crushed to learn this.

p.s. I don't think this was done to favor one candidate over another. The Fed thinks only of the markets. They got scorched by both bull and bear traders when they didn't cut last time it was up for review, I'm guessing this is a "do over" to make the fringe player whole again.

 

[MajorRewrite]

The Fed Isn’t First to Cut Rates, but It Is the Signal Other Central Banks Want

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut Wednesday sounded the all-clear for overseas central banks that are also concerned about their domestic economic growth.

Some of the world’s most consequential central banks, including those in the eurozone, the U.K. and Canada, already started trimming interest rates in recent months. But there are a number of others, including in India, South Korea and South Africa, that have held back. And the Fed’s move could encourage them to take the plunge.

For many central banks, lowering rates ahead of the Fed risks a weakening of their national currencies. When their rates are lowered relative to U.S. rates, their currencies become less valuable. That in turn can raise prices on their imports, creating a fresh wave of inflationary pressures.

Interesting.

 

[deckardB26354]

you were right

I was wrong

Oh that must have hurt to admit that!!

 

[lessOHmo]

Harris recession

http://stocktwits.com/Dr_Stoxx/message/586540826

 

[MajorRewrite]

Weekly applications for US jobless benefits fall to the lowest level in 4 months

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level in four months last week.

Jobless claims slid by 12,000, to 219,000, for the week of Sept. 14, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

This week's Labor Department report showed that the four-week average of claims, which evens out some of weekly volatility, fell by 3,500 to 227,500.

The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits fell by 14,000 to about 1.83 million for the week of Sept. 7, the fewest since early June.

️

 

[SevMax2]

The Fed Isn’t First to Cut Rates, but It Is the Signal Other Central Banks Want





Interesting.

Fascinating how much they depend upon us.

 

[Rotadom]

Stock market at a record high and Trump Media is at an all time low. Trump said if Biden was elected that we'd see a collapse of the stock market....

 

[lessOHmo]

]Biden admits economic recovery still needs 'work,' forgets meeting Fed chair in error-laden speech

President Biden confessed Thursday that there's "a hell of a lot more work to do" to tame inflation and boost the economy -- as he delivered an error-ridden

 

[Pad_Foot]

Stock market at a record high and Trump Media is at an all time low. Trump said if Biden was elected that we'd see a collapse of the stock market....

How many time has he predicted that!?
Great Business man!! Not

 

[MajorRewrite]

Biden Recounts His Economic Record as Interest Rates, Inflation Fall and the Dow Hits a Record

President Joe Biden denied on Thursday that he was taking a victory lap one day after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half point, saying inflation was licked and the economy remains strong.

But it sure sounded that way as the 46th president spoke to a gathering of the Economic Club of Washington, taking the audience on a trip through the economic history of the past three and a half years. Biden traced the economy’s state at the start of the COVID-19, a time some compared to the Great Depression, to today, when the U.S. economy is the envy of the world.