Climate continues to change.

[Dribble]

You CAN see that that is trending upward, right?

When you drink enough...no.

 

[trysail]

...97%...

The mere mention of that completely BOGUS meme automatically disqualifies its deliverer from having an informed opinion or any particular knowledge of the topic.


It identifies the writer/speaker as a dogmatic polemicist intent on employing sophistry and propaganda. It is the antithesis of science.






​

 

[trysail]

By god, they've finally admitted it.

The historic temperature record is a fucking mess and is not reliable.




Journal of International Climatology

Towards a global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network

P. W. Thorne, H. J. Diamond, B. Goodison, S. Harrigan, Z. Hausfather, N. B. Ingleby, P. D. Jones, J. H. Lawrimore, D. H. Lister, A. Merlone, T. Oakley, M. Palecki, T. C. Peterson, M. de Podesta, C. Tassone, V. Venema, K. M. Willett

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5458/pdf

...owing to imperfect measurements and ubiquitous changes in measurement networks and techniques, there remain uncertainties in many of the details of these historical changes... act to make the picture less clear than it could be, particularly at the local scale where many decisions regarding adaptation choices will be required, both now and in the future. A set of high-quality long-term fiducial reference measurements of essential climate variables will enable future generations to make rigorous assessments of future climate change and variability, providing society with the best possible information to support future decisions. Here we propose that by implementing and maintaining a suitably stable and metrologically well-characterized global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network, the present-day scientific community can bequeath to future generations a better set of observations...

...Typically, individual station series have experienced changes in observing equipment and practices (Aguilar, Auer, Brunet, Peterson, & Wieringa, 2003; Brandsma & van der Meulen, 2008; Fall et al., 2011; Mekis & Vincent, 2011; Menne, Williams Jr., & Palecki, 2010; Parker, 1994; Sevruk, Ondrás, & Chvíla, 2009). In addition, station locations, observation times, instrumentation, and land use characteristics (including in some cases urbanization) have changed at many stations. Collectively, these changes affect the representativeness of individual station series, and particularly their long-term stability (Changnon & Kunkel, 2006; Hausfather et al., 2013; Karl, Williams Jr., Young, & Wendland, 1986; Quayle, Easterling, Karl, & Hughes, 1991). Metadata about changes are limited for many of the stations. These factors impact our ability to extract the full information content from historical observations of a broad range of essential climate variables (ECVs) (Bojinski et al., 2014). Many ECVs, such as precipitation, are extremely challenging to effectively monitor and analyse due to their restricted spatial and temporal scales and globally heterogeneous measurement approaches (Goodison, Louie, & Yang, 1998; Sevruk et al., 2009).

Changes in instrumentation were never intended to deliberately bias the climate record. Rather, the motivation was to either reduce costs and/or improve observations for the primary goal(s) of the networks, which was most often meteorological forecasting. The majority of changes have been localized and quasi-random in nature and so are amenable to statistical averaging of their effects. However, there have been regionally or globally systemic transitions specific to certain periods of time whose effect cannot be entirely ameliorated by averaging...

...From the perspective of climate science, the consequence of both random and more systematic effects is that almost invariably a post hoc statistical assessment of the homogeneity of historical records, informed by any available metadata, is required. Based on this analysis, adjustments must be applied to the data prior to use. Substantive efforts have been made to post-process the data to create homogeneous long-term records for multiple ECVs (Mekis & Vincent, 2011; Menne & Williams, 2009; Rohde et al., 2013; Willett et al., 2013, 2014; Yang, Kane, Zhang, Legates, & Goodison, 2005) at both regional and global scales (Hartmann et al., 2013). Such studies build upon decades of development of techniques to identify and adjust for breakpoints, for example, the work of Guy Callendar in the early 20th century (Hawkins & Jones, 2013). The uncertainty arising from homogenization using multiple methods for land surface air temperatures (LSAT) (Jones et al., 2012; Venema et al., 2012; Williams, Menne, & Thorne, 2012) is much too small to call into question the conclusion of decadal to centennial global-mean warming, and commensurate changes in a suite of related ECVs and indicators (Hartmann et al., 2013, their FAQ2.1). Evidence of this warming is supported by many lines of evidence, as well as modern reanalyses (Simmons et al., 2017).

The effects of inhomogeneities are stronger at the local and regional level, may be impacted by national practices complicating homogenization efforts, and are more challenging to remove for sparse networks (Aguilar et al., 2003; Lindau & Venema, 2016). The effects of inhomogeneities are also manifested more strongly in extremes than in the mean (e.g., Trewin, 2013) and are thus important for studies of changes in climatic extremes. State-of-the art homogenization methods can only make modest improvements in the variability around the mean of daily temperature (Killick, 2016) and humidity data (Chimani et al., 2017)...




the rest of it...
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.5458/pdf
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​

 

[Chancellor_Palpatine]

Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that has an essential role in Earth’s climate, redistributing heat and influencing the carbon cycle1, 2. The AMOC has been shown to be weakening in recent years1; this decline may reflect decadal-scale variability in convection in the Labrador Sea, but short observational datasets preclude a longer-term perspective on the modern state and variability of Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC1, 3,4,5. Here we provide several lines of palaeo-oceanographic evidence that Labrador Sea deep convection and the AMOC have been anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so (since the end of the Little Ice Age, LIA, approximately AD 1850) compared with the preceding 1,500 years.

And for a report from the BBC: Climate change dials down Atlantic Ocean heating system.

 

[BoyNextDoor]

The mere mention of that completely BOGUS meme automatically disqualifies its deliverer from having an informed opinion or any particular knowledge of the topic.


It identifies the writer/speaker as a dogmatic polemicist intent on employing sophistry and propaganda. It is the antithesis of science.
​

Thomas Carl Peterson is an American climatologist and meteorologist. He is the president of the World Meteorological Organization's Commission for Climatology, and the former chief scientist at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, from which he retired in July 2015.[1] He was a lead author of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and was the co-editor-in-chief and co-chair of the United States Global Change Research Program's 2009 report "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States". In 2004, he was named one of the top 1% most cited researchers in the field of geoscience by the Essential Science Indicators.

so let's see ... is Tryfail qualified or is Thomas Carl Peterson qualified to make an assertion as to the validity of what should be asserted as relevant to the topic and what is or is not antithetical to science?

 

[gunthernehmen]

After the winter we just went through, we could use a nice global warming.

 

[gunthernehmen]

After the winter we just went through, we could use a nice global warming.

I'm serious, btw! I coulda bought a new car for what I paid for oil this winter.

 

[trysail]

Thomas Carl Peterson...

so let's see ... is BoyNextDoor qualified to make an assertion as to the validity of what should be asserted as relevant to the topic and what is or is not antithetical to science?

Search "97%"

Result: Phrase not found.

...97%...

The mere mention of that completely BOGUS meme automatically disqualifies its deliverer from having an informed opinion or any particular knowledge of the topic.


It identifies the writer/speaker as a dogmatic polemicist intent on employing sophistry and propaganda. It is the antithesis of science.






​

​

 

[richard_daily]

Oil company shill Tryfail strikes (flaccidly) again!

 

[trysail]

Amicus Curiae Brief

Four Conclusions (p. 1):

1. The climate is always changing; changes like those of the past half-century are common in the geologic record, driven by powerful natural phenomena

2. Human influences on the climate are a small (1%) perturbation to natural energy flows

3. It is not possible to tell how much of the modest recent warming can be ascribed to human influences

4. There have been no detrimental changes observed in the most salient climate variables, and today’s projections of future changes are highly uncertain
​

​

The professors are accomplished and well-credentialed scientists. William Happer is the Cyrus Fogg Bracket Professor of Physics Emeritus at Princeton University. Dr. Happer also has extensive experience advising the government on energy research and policy, having served President George H.W. Bush’s administration as the director of energy research in the Department of Energy.

Steven E. Koonin is the founding director of New York University’s Center for Urban Science and Progress. Dr. Koonin previously served as the second Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy in President Barack Obama’s administration. In this role, Dr. Koonin oversaw science, energy, and security activities.

Richard S. Lindzen is a Professor Emeritus in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Lindzen’s research involves studies of the role of the tropics in mid-latitude weather and global heat transport, the moisture budget and its eole in global change, the origins of ice ages, seasonal effects in atmospheric transport, stratospheric waves, and the observational determination of climate sensitivity

. Each of the professors has been elected to the prestigious National Academy of Sciences, a highly selective non-profit organization recognizing the country’s most distinguished researchers
. Biographies for the professors appear at the end of Exhibit A to this motion.



http://co2coalition.org/wp-content/...aign=CO2,+A+Climate+Surprise&utm_medium=email

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[trysail]

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/2018-1976-1972-dmi-arctic-temperatures.png


​

 

[phrodeau]

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/2018-1976-1972-dmi-arctic-temperatures.png


​

Again, you might be more convincing if your data covered more than a fraction of 1% of the earth's surface.

 

[Hypoxia]

Again, you might be more convincing if your data covered more than a fraction of 1% of the earth's surface.

Now you're just being tedious. The plumpest cherries are the ones to pick.

 

[trysail]

Two months ago, the Klimate Krazies were jumping up and down and screaming that the Arctic was melting.

That was cherry-picking in the extreme.

And, now, for the umpteenth time, the nutters have been shown to have been blowing smoke.

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2018/04/2018-1976-1972-dmi-arctic-temperatures.png


​

​

 

[gunthernehmen]

Ready for Spring. Anytime, gents...

 

[Hypoxia]

Ready for Spring. Anytime, gents...

Bright and sunny and warm yesterday. Six inches of snow today. (We made it to the store just in time.) Hope it melts off so the garbage truck can make it down our dirt road tomorrow. Winter here is now Mar-Apr. Odd.

 

[thør]

How far out can you predict sea ice thickness?

 

[trysail]

[UR L="https://arctic****/infrastructure/20180417/736767.html"]How far out can you predict sea ice thickness?[/URL]

Lit doesn't like that link.



​

 

[phrodeau]

Have you looked at a globe yet to see how small a spot "north of the 80th parallel" is?

 

[Hypoxia]

Have you looked at a globe yet to see how small a spot "north of the 80th parallel" is?

What is north of the North Pole? What is beyond infinity? Where do cyclones go to die? When summer departs, why does it keep returning to inflict pain?

 

[DMBFFF]

How far out can you predict sea ice thickness?

Lit doesn't like that link.​

Yeah, I'm having trouble clicking it too.

 

[thør]

Lit doesn't like that link.



​

**** = **** = dot r u

or google "Rosatomflot seeks Arctic sea ice forecast through mid-century"

 

[thør]

Issues in Tuktoyaktuk

All that said, there's erosion issues with any coastal development whether it be in the arctic or the tropics.

 

[DMBFFF]

Issues in Tuktoyaktuk

All that said, there's erosion issues with any coastal development whether it be in the arctic or the tropics.

That link seems to be working.

The Globe and Mail is at least decently reputable too.

You have a point, but still, I hear in the media about concerns up there. Less ice means a lower albedo, more warming, more greenhouse gasses.

 

[thør]

Climate cuts number of trash-eating Arctic bugs