COVID impacts

[BelleCanzuto]

Saw this in The Atlantic, and I thought it was a nice overview of a lot of information related to the coronavirus. Some of it is geared toward the US, but most is general information about the virus, the disease it causes, the research so far and discussion about the epidemiological models.

Link: Why the Coronavirus is So Confusing

Snippet: But much else about the pandemic is still maddeningly unclear. Why do some people get really sick, but others do not? Are the models too optimistic or too pessimistic? Exactly how transmissible and deadly is the virus? How many people have actually been infected? How long must social restrictions go on for? Why are so many questions still unanswered?

The confusion partly arises from the pandemic’s scale and pace. Worldwide, at least 3.1 million people have been infected in less than four months. Economies have nose-dived. Societies have paused. In most people’s living memory, no crisis has caused so much upheaval so broadly and so quickly. “We’ve never faced a pandemic like this before, so we don’t know what is likely to happen or what would have happened,” says Zoë McLaren, a health-policy professor at the University of Maryland at Baltimore County. “That makes it even more difficult in terms of the uncertainty.”

But beyond its vast scope and sui generis nature, there are other reasons the pandemic continues to be so befuddling—a slew of forces scientific and societal, epidemiological and epistemological.

 

[NotWise]

The COVID19 models have completely failed my state. As recently as last week they predicted that we could start relaxing the social distancing measures by mid-May, and the Governor announced the early stages of recovery.

Then the virus dug deep into our Native American population. I'm in the most populated county in the state, and most of our Navajo population is in two counties which, taken together, have something less than 30% of our population. One county has exceeded us in total COVID19-related deaths, and the other has exceeded us in the number of cases. While the Native American population is about 11% of the state, they now account for nearly 53% of the total COVID19 cases.

Now the mayor of the largest town in one of those counties has asked the Governor for a formal lock-down order. It can't make that much difference, because the reservation isn't subject to State laws.

We were supposed to be a couple weeks past the peak, but today my county recorded more new cases in a day than at any earlier time, and the state as a whole recorded it's largest number of new cases and deaths in a day. None of the deaths were in the most populous county, and most came from a single nursing home.

Not lookin' good.

 

[NotWise]

The Governor, at the request of the local Mayor, locked down a city in the western part of the state to slow the spread of COVID-19. The lock-down was done under authority of a riot control act, and effectively places the city under martial law, with all traffic in and out regulated, and people ordered off the streets.

 

[KeithD]

The first foray out in the car today in six weeks. Of course it was to restock wine.

 

[BelleCanzuto]

The Governor, at the request of the local Mayor, locked down a city in the western part of the state to slow the spread of COVID-19. The lock-down was done under authority of a riot control act, and effectively places the city under martial law, with all traffic in and out regulated, and people ordered off the streets.

Wow. What was going on? That seems like something you wouldn't do lightly...

 

[NotWise]

Wow. What was going on? That seems like something you wouldn't do lightly...

It's a town on the edge of the Navajo reservation with a very high proportion of Native Americans. The mandated social distancing rules were not being followed, and the virus was spreading without restriction.

The county that includes that town has 1/9 the population of the county I live in, but more known cases. The county to its north (also with a high Native American population) has about 1/8 the population of the county I live in, but more COVID19-related deaths.

Native Americans are 11% of the State's population, but 54% of the known COVID-19 cases, with many of those cases being in the Navajo Nation. Two Keres-speaking Pueblos just north of here have also been hard-hit.

The Governor didn't do it lightly. The Mayor requested the shutdown two days ago, and it was declared today. I think they had to find the law that would give the Gov' authority to shut down a city.

 

[ElectricBlue]

Wow. What was going on? That seems like something you wouldn't do lightly...

When you have armed protests and politicians promising mass rallies, you have a country descending into chaos. The Mayor sounds like the sane one, frankly.

Here's my frame of reference: Australia has a population of 25 million. Our national death toll from Covid-19 is less than 100, and the nation's total case count is just under 6700. Of those, about 970 are currently being monitored. Across Australia, as of today, 83 people (or 9 per cent of current cases) are receiving hospital care, including 28 (or 3 per cent) in ICU. Of those in ICU, 21 (or 2 per cent of current cases) are ventilated (extracted from a rolling report updated at least twice-daily).

Our lock-downs have been tight, and only now, nervously being relaxed. Each state is setting its own rules based on their own circumstances, but generally travel and visit only in pairs, largest group allowed is ten (with substantial on the spot fines), and some states continue to limit local travel to within 50km - which in the regions means stay in your own town.

Seriously, stay indoors and keep away from other people.

 

[RejectReality]

Still not much in the way of spread out here in the sticks. 7 positive in my home county, and 17 in my work county ( which has a town of 30k people ) and no deaths.

My true home county down in southern Indiana only has 1 reported case.

Still no way to get Lysol/Clorox wipes unless you're there the moment they open the box. Disinfectant spray and hand sanitizer too. Everything else had more or less recovered from the panic, but now meat is starting to get rationed.

The economic impact is starting to trickle down to the essential workers. We just furloughed 50 people, and everyone else's hours have been cut. ( On top of several drivers close to retirement saying screw it and quitting early rather than run to hard-hit Chicago every couple of days ) The rumor mill says that more furloughs are likely.

I'm in a position where I'm perfectly happy to come home early and not worry about the lost hours, but there are some who are starting to file for partial unemployment because they're down below 32 hours average. This is the time of year where we would normally start hitting the 45-55 hours per week average.

 

[BelleCanzuto]

It's a town on the edge of the Navajo reservation with a very high proportion of Native Americans. The mandated social distancing rules were not being followed, and the virus was spreading without restriction.

The county that includes that town has 1/9 the population of the county I live in, but more known cases. The county to its north (also with a high Native American population) has about 1/8 the population of the county I live in, but more COVID19-related deaths.

Native Americans are 11% of the State's population, but 54% of the known COVID-19 cases, with many of those cases being in the Navajo Nation. Two Keres-speaking Pueblos just north of here have also been hard-hit.

The Governor didn't do it lightly. The Mayor requested the shutdown two days ago, and it was declared today. I think they had to find the law that would give the Gov' authority to shut down a city.

Yeah, I didn't mean to imply I thought it *had* been done lightly. I was curious as to what had made them want to cross that threshold. And yeah, basically unchecked growth and people not being willing to change their behaviors would be a reason.

 

[NotWise]

Yeah, I didn't mean to imply I thought it *had* been done lightly. I was curious as to what had made them want to cross that threshold. And yeah, basically unchecked growth and people not being willing to change their behaviors would be a reason.

The Mayor of the main town between here and there was going the opposite direction and saying he would defy the State mandates and open up businesses the state closed. He said that exactly once, as near as I can tell before the Gov' changed his mind.

The Gov', by the way, is a rather diminutive woman, but right now she is large and in charge. For her video conferences, she wears a mask with a design based on the state flag.

 

[Rustyoznail]

Now the hump (not humping...) is easing, the Victorian State Government has decided to test 100k in the next two weeks, starting with anyone who has regular contact with the general public.

So today a heap of us stood around waiting to be swabbed. Good thing the weather was kind today. It took nearly an hour and a half of waiting for a five minute test.

I didn't mind the back of the throat swab, but sticking a long, thin metal rod up my nose like the Doctor was trying to pierce my brain wasn't fun. I still feel where it was.

 

[NotWise]

Now the hump (not humping...) is easing, the Victorian State Government has decided to test 100k in the next two weeks, starting with anyone who has regular contact with the general public.

So today a heap of us stood around waiting to be swabbed. Good thing the weather was kind today. It took nearly an hour and a half of waiting for a five minute test.

I didn't mind the back of the throat swab, but sticking a long, thin metal rod up my nose like the Doctor was trying to pierce my brain wasn't fun. I still feel where it was.

We're doing the same kind of accelerated testing. I don't really understand the point. I could produce a negative test in the morning, pick up the virus in the testing facility, and be positive in the afternoon.

Getting a negative test once doesn't mean that you don't have it now.

 

[TxRad]

Here's a free plot bunny.

They push out a vaccination without full testing. One month later, people who have the virus turn blue. The people with antibodies turn green and everyone else remains their normal color. What would the reaction be?

 

[TarnishedPenny]

We're doing the same kind of accelerated testing. I don't really understand the point. I could produce a negative test in the morning, pick up the virus in the testing facility, and be positive in the afternoon.

Getting a negative test once doesn't mean that you don't have it now.

Not being an epidemiologist, I would speculate that they're trying to gather better data on what percentage of the general population has COVID-19 at any given time. That's always been one of the trick knees of the reporting, not knowing the number of asymptomatic people (including those whose symptoms have not yet developed).

If testing a broad slice of the people allows the health system to say that (only) x% of the population tests positive, that would be very useful data, especially if they repeat the test in future. It wouldn't make any difference for you personally, but at the national or state scale, it could be very useful.

One of the big concerns these days is the possibility of a second wave once controls are relaxed and that's where this sort of info might come in handy. If the percentage of people tested shows a very low positive result, then the odds of a second wave is correspondingly lower. If there are still a whole bunch of infected people, then a second wave is much more likely.

Again, just speculation.

 

[Rustyoznail]

Here's a free plot bunny.

They push out a vaccination without full testing. One month later, people who have the virus turn blue. The people with antibodies turn green and everyone else remains their normal color. What would the reaction be?

Shhh. Be vewy, vewy quiet. I’m huntin’ Smurfs...

 

[Rustyoznail]

Not being an epidemiologist, I would speculate that they're trying to gather better data on what percentage of the general population has COVID-19 at any given time. That's always been one of the trick knees of the reporting, not knowing the number of asymptomatic people (including those whose symptoms have not yet developed).

If testing a broad slice of the people allows the health system to say that (only) x% of the population tests positive, that would be very useful data, especially if they repeat the test in future. It wouldn't make any difference for you personally, but at the national or state scale, it could be very useful.

One of the big concerns these days is the possibility of a second wave once controls are relaxed and that's where this sort of info might come in handy. If the percentage of people tested shows a very low positive result, then the odds of a second wave is correspondingly lower. If there are still a whole bunch of infected people, then a second wave is much more likely.

Again, just speculation.

Yep, that’s the theory we were told. This is such an odd disease that they have no idea who’s wandering around with zero symptoms.

 

[SolarRay]

It sounds like they're becoming more confident that vitamin D is part of the equation. Does that mean that the fact I've been taking fish oil pills has worked in my favor? Or is this overblown?

 

[NotWise]

It sounds like they're becoming more confident that vitamin D is part of the equation. Does that mean that the fact I've been taking fish oil pills has worked in my favor? Or is this overblown?

Where did you hear that? [Edit: Never mind. I Googled.]

Doctors Without Borders is sending people here to help the Navajo Nation where, I guess you could say, they're gaining a lot of herd immunity.

 

[Vix_Giovanni]

....

 

[JamesMiehoff]

That was a VE day celebration in honor of the 75 anniversary of the end of WWII.

James

 

[Vix_Giovanni]

….

 

[JamesMiehoff]

Here's a free plot bunny.

They push out a vaccination without full testing. One month later, people who have the virus turn blue. The people with antibodies turn green and everyone else remains their normal color. What would the reaction be?

What color do you get when you mix blue and green? I ask because after you are infected you would turn blue and as your body adds antibodies you would get a green color added.

I know with light you get cyan. But I am not sure what you get with pigments.

James

 

[BelleCanzuto]

What color do you get when you mix blue and green? I ask because after you are infected you would turn blue and as your body adds antibodies you would get a green color added.

I know with light you get cyan. But I am not sure what you get with pigments.

James

Teal.

 

[_Lynn_]

I had the COVID test today, which wasn't painful but certainly uncomfortable. It was just as a precaution before the next cardioversion, which is scheduled for this Friday.

 

[KeithD]

Hope it's negative, Lynn. Fingers crossed.