COVID impacts

[BelleCanzuto]

A family member of mine was told that he needed heart surgery. The procedure was booked to occur 7 days later.

Then the shutdowns happened, and he was told he would have to wait while the hospitals dealt with Covid cases.

He died 3 weeks later. If he'd had the surgery when it was originally planned, he'd be alive today.

I don't suppose that counts as a Covid death, though it was definitely caused by Covid.

That's one of the great unknowns about this pandemic. How many people died because their healthcare got delayed, or because they were afraid to go to the hospital. They can do studies of "excess deaths" (numbers of deaths over the average for an area or a country) but they'll always be some debate about how much of the excess was related to COVID. And then there will be the debates about who those distinctions are made.

One thing I'm sure of, the number of deaths currently attributed to COVID is an undercount.

And my condolences on your loss.

 

[astuffedshirt_perv]

It's legal to keep people from other states from crossing the border into your state? I thought freedom of movement between states is guaranteed in the Constitution.

Maybe we should re-think that one. I want Floridians to stay far away from me

The EU choked on this issue too, back when Italy was going bonkers. Countries tried to close their borders, but the EU is for freedom of movement. Unexpected consequences of an excellent idea in most situations.

 

[Bramblethorn]

The EU choked on this issue too, back when Italy was going bonkers. Countries tried to close their borders, but the EU is for freedom of movement. Unexpected consequences of an excellent idea in most situations.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...-borders-closed-coronavirus-covid-19/12094800

 

[JamesMiehoff]

I know there have been Sci-Fi stories written about this, but I was musing the other day that pandemics were a lot harder to get started when it took a month to sail across an ocean.

The bubonic plague (The Black Death) in the Middle Ages was able to sweep across the continent because of the improved roads and increased trade. The same is true today. The ease of travel certainly spread it far and wide before it was recognized as a problem.

"It's just another flu", was certainly heard a lot in the early days. I am pretty sure I even said it a few times in my ignorance.

For those of you who have lost loved ones, I would like to apologize for my insensitivity and ignorance. For those who have not, yet, I would would like to offer my condolences in advance.

I am afraid that what we are seeing now with the spike in cases is what we would have seen in a second wave if we had let the economy stay closed. As soon as it reopened and we all came rushing out of our hidey holes, it would have erupted again.

People talk about "herd immunity". Well folks, hold onto your hats. Herd immunity starts at 45%. We are just at around 1% of the [population that has tested positive. Even if the conspiracy nuts are right and the number is 10 times that big, we are still only at 10%. There is a long way to go before we get that mythical herd immunity.

And guess what? It really only matters to the ones that have already gotten it. If you haven't gotten it, you are part of the population that is vulnerable.

Sorry. I am just bummed out today. I'm tired of being in my hidey hole

James

 

[BelleCanzuto]

"It's just another flu", was certainly heard a lot in the early days. I am pretty sure I even said it a few times in my ignorance.

For those of you who have lost loved ones, I would like to apologize for my insensitivity and ignorance. For those who have not, yet, I would would like to offer my condolences in advance.

I, for one, appreciate your honesty about your initial skepticism and your realization that you were wrong. You certainly weren't the only one, even just on these boards, much less across the country. So, thank you for writing this, and I'm sorry that you're feeling down. I think a lot of us are discouraged.

I am afraid that what we are seeing now with the spike in cases is what we would have seen in a second wave if we had let the economy stay closed. As soon as it reopened and we all came rushing out of our hidey holes, it would have erupted again.

The difference, if we had kept the economy closed longer, and ramped up testing and contract tracing, is that outbreaks could have been tracked. If there is very little community spread, and testing is fast, then you can isolate only the people who are sick. Everyone else can go about their business with precautions. But because some of the states with the highest numbers of cases and hospitalizations now opened up before community spread was really stopped. And because they opened up before contact tracing was really well established, then the virus has been released full force. You can't isolate only the infected people now, because you can't track who they probably are. It's very sad to say, but another month of economic pain into May or June with true statewide shutdowns everywhere, and we might be in a much better economic position now. And it's likely a lot fewer people would have died or been seriously debilitated.

People talk about "herd immunity". Well folks, hold onto your hats. Herd immunity starts at 45%. We are just at around 1% of the [population that has tested positive. Even if the conspiracy nuts are right and the number is 10 times that big, we are still only at 10%. There is a long way to go before we get that mythical herd immunity.

And guess what? It really only matters to the ones that have already gotten it. If you haven't gotten it, you are part of the population that is vulnerable.

Sorry. I am just bummed out today. I'm tired of being in my hidey hole

James

Yep. We're a long, long way from herd immunity. And that only matters if getting the virus gives a person long lasting immunity from it again. If (as some anecdotal evidence suggests) people can get reinfected a couple of months later, then herd immunity is meaningless.

Sorry, that probably bummed you out more.

Do what you can, James. It's a long road, but we're all on it together.
Take care of yourself!

 

[Bramblethorn]

The difference, if we had kept the economy closed longer, and ramped up testing and contract tracing, is that outbreaks could have been tracked. If there is very little community spread, and testing is fast, then you can isolate only the people who are sick. Everyone else can go about their business with precautions.

This, and also: hospital capacity. Even if you can't change the total number of people who get sick, by slowing it you can prevent the sort of situation that's happening in Texas right now where hospitals are having to prepare for sending the sickest people home to die in order to free up space for other patients.

Guess the USA is finally getting those "death panels" everybody was freaking out about a few years back :-/

 

[TxRad]

This, and also: hospital capacity. Even if you can't change the total number of people who get sick, by slowing it you can prevent the sort of situation that's happening in Texas right now where the ICUs are full and people are being sent home to die in order to free up space for other patients.

Guess the USA finally got those "death panels" everybody was freaking out about a few years back :-/

I don't know where you got this information but it is wrong. Only one hospital I know of has reached capacity and they open up another section the same day. No one has been reported here as having been sent home to die or otherwise.

 

[Bramblethorn]

I don't know where you got this information but it is wrong. Only one hospital I know of has reached capacity and they open up another section the same day. No one has been reported here as having been sent home to die or otherwise.

I was thinking of the Starr County situation:

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article244443257.html

Now Starr County is at a dangerous “tipping point,” reporting an alarming number of new cases each day, data show. Starr County Memorial Hospital — the county’s only hospital — is overflowing with COVID-19 patients.

The county has been forced to form what is being compared to a so-called “death panel.” A county health board – which governs Starr Memorial – is set to authorize critical care guidelines Thursday that will help medical workers determine ways to allocate scarce medical resources on patients with the best chance to survive.

A committee will deem which COVID-19 patients are likely to die and send them home with family, Jose Vasquez, the county health authority, said during a news conference Tuesday.

“The situation is desperate,” Vasquez said. “We cannot continue functioning in the Starr County Memorial Hospital nor in our county in the way that things are going. The numbers are staggering.”

...

On Sunday, Gov. Abbott announced U.S. Navy teams will go to South Texas to provide medical assistance, including the hospital in Starr County.

Still, the new committee will be necessary, officials say. The hospital transfers COVID-19 patients daily to other counties and even out-of-state, but those hospital beds are filling up, Vasquez said.

“For all of those patients that most certainly do not have any hope of improving, they are going to be better taken care of within their own family in the love of their own home rather than thousands of miles away dying alone in a hospital room,” he said.

Now that I recheck, I see that this was describing an imminent situation rather than one that had already happened. I'm not sure whether I misremembered the reporting I'd read, or if I'd read something that misreported the situation, but either way my apologies for the error.

I think the point stands, though: even if you can't stop people from being infected, slowing it down and flattening the peak is still helpful.

 

[NotWise]

I don't know where you got this information but it is wrong. Only one hospital I know of has reached capacity and they open up another section the same day. No one has been reported here as having been sent home to die or otherwise.

I think the liberal media made a big thing about the virus resurgence in Texas. My wife (who listens to nothing else) thought it was a Texas apocalypse. It didn't work out that way.

Houston has one of the biggest hospital complexes in the world. Driving through it is like driving through medical city. It's hard to imagine it being filled right now.

Where I live (which is not Texas), the pressure on the medical system is a lot lower than it was a couple months ago. We have more cases (like double per day) than we've ever had before, but the hospitalizations are at least 25% lower than they were at the peak.

When the virus resurged here, it resurged mostly among younger people (20-29 years olds especially), while people over 60 and nursing/retirement home residents were a big part of the first round.

 

[Bramblethorn]

I think the liberal media made a big thing about the virus resurgence in Texas. My wife (who listens to nothing else) thought it was a Texas apocalypse. It didn't work out that way.

Houston has one of the biggest hospital complexes in the world. Driving through it is like driving through medical city. It's hard to imagine it being filled right now.

Where I live (which is not Texas), the pressure on the medical system is a lot lower than it was a couple months ago. We have more cases (like double per day) than we've ever had before, but the hospitalizations are at least 25% lower than they were at the peak.

When the virus resurged here, it resurged mostly among younger people (20-29 years olds especially), while people over 60 and nursing/retirement home residents were a big part of the first round.

Screenshot from interactive at https://www.houstonchronicle.com/co...-map-houston-texas-us-case-virus-15142609.php

 

[NotWise]

Screenshot from interactive at https://www.houstonchronicle.com/co...-map-houston-texas-us-case-virus-15142609.php

I don't deny that there was a resurgence. But really -- Starr County is not the State of Texas.

Here, we're accepting COVID patients from the neighboring states of Texas and Arizona. I don't think Colorado needs help. It isn't like we have a huge capacity, but load balancing is an important logistic.

 

[Bramblethorn]

I don't deny that there was a resurgence. But really -- Starr County is not the State of Texas.

Nobody said it was. But it is in Texas. If you have a death panel in Starr County, then you have a death panel in Texas.

 

[NotWise]

Nobody said it was. But it is in Texas. If you have a death panel in Starr County, then you have a death panel in Texas.

Okay. Then you also have a death panel in the US. Does that expansion make it more significant?

 

[TxRad]

Starr County, 1715 cases, 647 recoveries, 29 deaths.

A very fair sized county but with few cities and they are all along the border. There is also 3 major cities within and hours drive with good hospital facilities.

Like NW said, it sounds like someone is nit picking information and then blowing it up.

Death panels are also something someone is inventing.

 

[TxRad]

Here are the cases and death graphs as of 3 hours ago:

 

[Bramblethorn]

Okay. Then you also have a death panel in the US. Does that expansion make it more significant?

It'd still be true, but I'm not sure what you're trying to drive at here.

 

[Bramblethorn]

Here are the cases and death graphs as of 3 hours ago:

Note that the data for the last couple of weeks is incomplete - it's hard to see at that size, but from the "newly reported fatalities" you can see that a lot of the deaths are still coming in. The more recent the data, the less complete, which creates the appearance of a downturn, but it'll be interesting to see how much those counts get adjusted in the next few weeks.

I can't find information on how Texas is dating cases - hopefully not the way Georgia did it, where newly-diagnosed cases were backdated to the date when the person first showed symptoms. Again, that's a great way to create an illusion of a sudden improvement starting about two weeks into the past, since most of the people showing symptoms in recent days won't have had time to be tested.

 

[KeithD]

I think the collateral deaths issue is an important one. I know of the loss of some folks I know directly from Covid-19, but I think I know of more who have died because their routine care and surgery needs were stopped or curtailed because of the pandemic. And I know of some who just seemed to have given up because of the frustrations of the time in which the pandemic is one, but not the only one, major contributor.

 

[Enchantment_of_Nyx]

Quibbling over whether Star County counts as Texas is really missing the point. That's not the only place it's happening.

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronavirus-report/509636-at-least-50-florida-hospital-icus-hit-capacity

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/us/coronavirus-hospitals-capacity.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-texas-hospitals-capacity-surge-cases/

EDIT: I should probably clarify. These don't talk about "death panels." They talk about what causes the need for them, which is exceeding capacity. Hospitals all across the country have already drafted guidance for death panel-type decisions, though. Many hospitals sent letters to patients' families telling them what the procedures would be to stay on ventilators if they ran out of those.

 

[Bramblethorn]

May be of interest to data wonks: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2020-80/

It looks at economic downturns associated with the coronavirus pandemic. Important finding, consistent with similar work I've seen elsewhere, is that very little (estimated 7%) of the overall downturn is caused by government interventions:

"Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly influenced by the number of COVID deaths reported in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from busier, more crowded stores toward smaller, less busy stores in the same industry."

IOW, the best way to manage the economy is to manage the epidemic.

 

[Enchantment_of_Nyx]

May be of interest to data wonks: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/2020-80/

It looks at economic downturns associated with the coronavirus pandemic. Important finding, consistent with similar work I've seen elsewhere, is that very little (estimated 7%) of the overall downturn is caused by government interventions:

"Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly influenced by the number of COVID deaths reported in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from busier, more crowded stores toward smaller, less busy stores in the same industry."

IOW, the best way to manage the economy is to manage the epidemic.

Sweden's economic downturn is an example of this. They kept their economy open, and many people in the U.S. who were in favor of doing the same pointed to Sweden as an example. It was an example that went very poorly. Sweden's downturn is as severe as it's neighbors, but the loss of life was much greater. When the economies of Sweden's neighbors reopen, they may be in a much better bounce-back position than Sweden is.

Personal choice was the only thing that drove Sweden's downturn.

 

[Bramblethorn]

Sweden's economic downturn is an example of this. They kept their economy open, and many people in the U.S. who were in favor of doing the same pointed to Sweden as an example. It was an example that went very poorly. Sweden's downturn is as severe as it's neighbors, but the loss of life was much greater. When the economies of Sweden's neighbors reopen, they may be in a much better bounce-back position than Sweden is.

Personal choice was the only thing that drove Sweden's downturn.

Nitpicking here, probably not the only thing - even if Sweden had magically been able to stop the virus at the border with no internal restrictions I expect there would still have been a downturn due to trade disruptions. But comparison to neighbouring countries which also suffered those disruptions certainly doesn't make it look like Sweden chose well.

 

[Enchantment_of_Nyx]

Nitpicking here, probably not the only thing - even if Sweden had magically been able to stop the virus at the border with no internal restrictions I expect there would still have been a downturn due to trade disruptions. But comparison to neighbouring countries which also suffered those disruptions certainly doesn't make it look like Sweden chose well.

True. It would be more accurate to say that its economic downturn was similar to its neighbors' downturns, even though there was no Swedish governmental restriction on people's activities that would affect their consumer behavior.

 

[TarnishedPenny]

On a lighter note, the BBC claims the Russian government has announced a mass inoculation against COVID this coming October. What could possibly go wrong?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53621708

 

[KeithD]

On a lighter note, the BBC claims the Russian government has announced a mass inoculation against COVID this coming October. What could possibly go wrong?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53621708

Trump could pay the bill for it out of the U.S. treasury.