Damned Democracy

[dr_mabeuse]

Well, according to Thomas Friedman, who talked to a lot of Globalization players about how it all works now, the new gurus aren't Keynes and Marx anymore, but Schumpeter and Andy Grove, the Head of Intel, who believe in Creative Destruction and Corporate Paranoia (respectively) as the two new watchwords of business.

Corporate Paranoia means constantly rolling over ideas and products to stay ahead of the competition; institutionalized revolution, change for change's sake. And Schumpeter's ideas on creative destruction had to do with Capitalism continuously tearing itself up and readapting to the changes it itself generates through the means of highly fluid capital. These are the paradigms of globalization and together they paint a picture of a world economy just this side of chaos where things happen at nanospeeds and never "settle down". It's methedrine capitalism.

It's kind of nervewracking. No one can rely on having a job for any length of time, or even rely on their company being there in the morning. Things that happen in Thailand or Brazil affect your job in Frankfurt or Mumbai or Chicago

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

KEEBLER

Thomas Sowell makes the same argument. He went to China to advise them on productivity. What he found was 1000s of collies with shovels and lotsa idle machines. The Chinese wanted full employment. Sowell suggested they lose the shovels and issue spoons.

My point is our standard of living is very different than in Asia. A century ago we used child labor and convict labor, and it was a scandal because of the abuses by management. Florida stopped convict labor in 1926 because contractors were whipping sick convicts to death. I have some newspaper articles from that era, boasting about the marvels of convict whipping.

Our labor laws and wages create the cost differences.

If you and ROXANNE are okay with child labor and convict labor, thats okay with me.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

DOC

What I notice is corporations churning employees to escape benefit costs. That is, keep the employee until the probationary period passes, then dump them. No vacation, no sick time, no insurance, no 401K, nada. When they cant outsource the work, change staff 3 times a year.

Another nifty trick is to offer the most expensive insurance so employees wont take it. If they pass, you dont have to contribute.

 

[rgraham666]

Well, according to Thomas Friedman, who talked to a lot of Globalization players about how it all works now, the new gurus aren't Keynes and Marx anymore, but Schumpeter and Andy Grove, the Head of Intel, who believe in Creative Destruction and Corporate Paranoia (respectively) as the two new watchwords of business.

Corporate Paranoia means constantly rolling over ideas and products to stay ahead of the competition; institutionalized revolution, change for change's sake. And Schumpeter's ideas on creative destruction had to do with Capitalism continuously tearing itself up and readapting to the changes it itself generates through the means of highly fluid capital. These are the paradigms of globalization and together they paint a picture of a world economy just this side of chaos where things happen at nanospeeds and never "settle down". It's methedrine capitalism.

It's kind of nervewracking. No one can rely on having a job for any length of time, or even rely on their company being there in the morning. Things that happen in Thailand or Brazil affect your job in Frankfurt or Mumbai or Chicago

Funny, isn't it? How the people advocating 'Creative Destruction' are the ones not affected by it?

In ten years time will their jobs as economists, management, political columnists disappear?

Well, no. http://bestsmileys.com/lol/1.gif

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

ROB

Sure their jobs will vanish. Its already happening.

Our local paper fired 200-something people and rarely use national pundits on the op-ed page anymore. Pundits cost money, and these fools are sawing the limb they roost on.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

DOC

What I expect to happen is a crisis the guvmint cant rescue us from. The gurus will create a runaway oscillation that destroys the exisiting economy via self-inflicted stress.

The gurus get away with it for now because the guvmint funds the research at state universities and sells the good stuff. The gurus get to cherry pick the new technology and taxpayers eat the losers.

But outsourced taxpayers cant carry the burden, and the schools are getting less money for research. My alma mater is screaming like a stuck pig about it.

When the dust clears, after the implosion, I expect we'll fragment, in a Balkan way, into distinct economic enclaves that are independent of each other.

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

Information Age notwithstanding, some people still have to make things. So manufacturing is not and never will be obsolete. When it comes time for war, we can't drop computers out of bigger computers on enemy air bases. Troops still need to capture territory. Simulations don't win battles.

And that's just speaking of war. Do we really want to be vulnerable to an embargo? More immediately, we need taxpayers, and as Mr. Johnson notes, taxpayers need money, which means that they need jobs. Outsourcing hollows out our economy and makes us dependent on China and other hostile or potentially hostile countries for everything.

Do we really want to buy all of our laptops and hybrid cars from Europe and Asia? Seriously?

 

[trysail]

I am actually going to agree with Roxanne pretty much on this... may the great God of liberalism forgive me....

Bemoaning the demise of the US economy has been a great sport, off and on for most of the last century... except for those times when we couldn't brag enough about it.

Go back 50 or so years when the US was the ONLY significant industrial economy in the world as Europe and Japan were mired in the long recovery from the devastation of world wars, Russia and China dealing not only with that same devastation but also saddled with hopelessly inept and inefficient communist governments. The third worlds of Southern Asia, Africa and South America were deep into their third "worldliness", the legacy of 19th century colonialism.

While there was no doubt the US, not only undamaged but actually expanded by the war, was far better off economically than the rest of the world. But that had a lot more to do with how bad the rest of the world was than it did with America being uniquely blessed.

I honestly believe our economic troubles are transitory and mostly the result of some ill-advised policies which will right itself over time... It was not so long ago that predictions of America's imminent bankruptcy in the face of the Japanese industrial juggernaut were rife in this country.

Somehow the 90's happened anyway...

Now the same dire predictions are being given for China, India and Russia... I do believe a free market system and a totalitarian form of government are not compatible in the long run... China will either morph into a true democracy or collapse into anarchy. And India and Russia? Competition is good for everybody.

But the reality is that we are not slipping down the economic ladder... much of the rest of the world is simply climbing up..... In no way do I see this as a bad thing. This does NOT mean we will no longer have food to eat, and toys to buy, it just means everyone else will as well.

As for the Dollar (and Rox and I part company here).... Lets get the fuck outa Iraq, let oil settle down (And it WILL go down!), a new and better Administration (THAT won't be hard!) and who knows? Perhaps another economic boom as we got under Clinton. Hard to believe it will be worse...

Balancing the budget might help again..... That seemed more inherently successful than the "spend our way into economic success" Reaganomics which seems to have fully run its course under the current administration. Much as it did under the first Bush.

Anyway... try not to think of Us vs. Them... as some kind of economic race... Think rather in absolute terms of food, shelter and warmth to even more people on the planet.... a good thing.

-KC

Well done KC! With a few minor exceptions (politics, naturally), I couldn't agree more. Government spending is completely out of control and the U.S. simply cannot keep spending like a drunken sailor. The estimated unfunded Medicare liability is now around $66 trillion while the unfunded Social Security liability is about $12 trillion. Throw in the existing government debt of ~9.6 trillion, the unfunded state and local pension liabilities of another $2-3 trillion and the potential liabilities for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the U.S. has liabilities easily exceding $80 trillion.

Offsetting those liabilities, the ENTIRE stock market is only worth ~$13ish trillion and ALL the privately owned real estate in the country is worth something like $30-40 trillion.

The U.S. has a balance sheet that resembles that of a banana republic and our creditors have begun to vote with their feet. We cannot live beyond our means forever.

 

[dr_mabeuse]

Information Age notwithstanding, some people still have to make things. So manufacturing is not and never will be obsolete. When it comes time for war, we can't drop computers out of bigger computers on enemy air bases. Troops still need to capture territory. Simulations don't win battles.

And that's just speaking of war. Do we really want to be vulnerable to an embargo? More immediately, we need taxpayers, and as Mr. Johnson notes, taxpayers need money, which means that they need jobs. Outsourcing hollows out our economy and makes us dependent on China and other hostile or potentially hostile countries for everything.

Do we really want to buy all of our laptops and hybrid cars from Europe and Asia? Seriously?

No, war's obsolete. No way to pay for it anymore. US can't afford it. No one will give us the money. Why invade some place when you can just buy it? War's going to be reduced to Terrorist acts against high-value targets against which which standing armies are helpless, just like we're seeing now. This is the future of war, what we're seeing in Iraq. Osama already knows this; It's time for the US to wise up too. We've sunk 500 Billion into Iraq with absolutely nothing to show for it and everyone's laughing their ass off at us, with our $75 million "smart bombs" that can't even kill this one bearded renegade. What weapons we do have will be build in China and will be electronic listening devices.

Just who are we going to invade when we owe the Chinese 300 trillion dollars? And what need do they have to invade us?

 

[dr_mabeuse]

Well done KC! With a few minor exceptions (politics, naturally), I couldn't agree more. Government spending is completely out of control and the U.S. simply cannot keep spending like a drunken sailor. The estimated unfunded Medicare liability is now around $66 trillion while the unfunded Social Security liability is about $12 trillion. Throw in the existing government debt of ~9.6 trillion, the unfunded state and local pension liabilities of another $2-3 trillion and the potential liabilities for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the U.S. has liabilities easily exceding $80 trillion.

Offsetting those liabilities, the ENTIRE stock market is only worth ~$13ish trillion and ALL the privately owned real estate in the country is worth something like $30-40 trillion.

The U.S. has a balance sheet that resembles that of a banana republic and our creditors have begun to vote with their feet. We cannot live beyond our means forever.

Don't talk sense to me when I'm trying to panic.

 

[rgraham666]

The U.S. has a balance sheet that resembles that of a banana republic and our creditors have begun to vote with their feet. We cannot live beyond our means forever.

I can hear the people making the important decisions saying, "What do you mean 'we', white man?"

 

[SEVERUSMAX]

We should have sold war bonds back when we still could. When we have to cannibalize our national defense....things have gone too far. At this point, even an anti-taxer knows that something must give. So bring on the tariffs!

Damn it, this is why I'm an independent now. I've never found a Democratic candidate I've liked, and these days the GOP is a total disappointment (with rare exceptions like McCain). Where were the deficit hawks when we needed them?

Lou Dobbs as President is sounding better and better.

For the record, though, I agree with the Gipper's statement that while a balanced budget is important, it pales next to the most basic purpose of a central government- national defense.

This war was a big mistake, but we have to clean up our own mess. Then we can bring them home....but it will take so long.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

DOC

Please!

War is always vogue when the incentives are right.

I'll bet I can collect a free army within a week simply by promising every warrior a piece-o-the-action when the fight is over. Why! I'll wager the volunteers will even pay their own airfare to the battlefield....if the goodies are good enough.

 

[ishtat]

DOC

Please!

War is always vogue when the incentives are right.

I'll bet I can collect a free army within a week simply by promising every warrior a piece-o-the-action when the fight is over. Why! I'll wager the volunteers will even pay their own airfare to the battlefield....if the goodies are good enough.

Not against a significant opponent I suspect. Can you imagine how the USA could for example subdue say India or China.

You also miss another crucial point . In modern warfare when is the fight over? when you put up the banner "Mission Accomplished."

The Vietnamese sometimes call their war the Ten Thousand Day War because that's how long it did last. Korea has been an armistice for 55 years - no conclusion.

The only wars that work now are ones with a significant disparity of power between the protagonists and one in which the more powerful enjoys and continues to have the support of the local population.

Economic clout is far more deadly in the long run than military posturing.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

ISHTAT

The Brits ruled India for a long time.

Most people dont care who it is that robs and abuses them.

 

[dr_mabeuse]

DOC

Please!

War is always vogue when the incentives are right.

I'll bet I can collect a free army within a week simply by promising every warrior a piece-o-the-action when the fight is over. Why! I'll wager the volunteers will even pay their own airfare to the battlefield....if the goodies are good enough.

That's true, and not a bad idea. We could supply the troops for both sides. The Warriors vs. The Gladiators, two all mercenary armies fighting for pure fuck-all. You wouldn't have any lack of patriotic volunteers ready to make the Ultimate Sacrifice for Whatever.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

DOC

I mean, people join the army for the bennies and pension; thats the excuse when anyone suggests they actually fight. (Obama promises his guys 71 LITEROTICA virgins). So make the incentives to kick ass really good....like an Iraqi oil well or a French vineyard.

 

[Roxanne Appleby]

The big economic story of the past 15 years and of the next 30-50 will be the explosion of the middle class in countries that not long before were at subsistence level. Since 1990 hundreds of millions of formerly very-poor people have risen to very basic middle-class/bourgeois living standards. In the coming decades billions will. Many of the things that give nervous nellies the willies today - masses of "coolies" willing to dig canals with spoons for 15-cents per hour - will become a thing of the past.

Also, our whole way of thinking about economies will change as ever-increasing productivity means that it takes fewer and fewer people to make all the stuff we consume, like ag 100 years ago. 2-3 percent of the population grow all our food, and maybe 10 percent will make all our stuff.

What will the rest of us do? Operate restaurants, write porn, provide financial services, you name it. I suspect that in time the current gap between low-skill pay rates and the amount earned by professionals will close due to the former coming up - we'll be willing to pay more for restaurant service, janitors, etc., in part because of increased wealth, and in part due to supply/demand factors.

~~~~

Regarding all the lovingly-fondled doom-prognostications in this thread and in many other places, don't hold your breath. There's always a "pessimistic bias" in populations, and presently it's been manipulatively fed and exploited for political reasons (the media has been talking up the "imminent recession" ever since the Bush tax cuts in 2002-2003). Adam Smith responded to similar doom-mongering in his day with a pithy, "There's a great deal of ruin in a nation." They didn't have emoticons then, but here's the one he would have appended to make his meaning clear:

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

ROXANNE

Nevah gonna hopppn, GI!

Adam Smith didnt have the mightiest economic progostication tool in the history of Earth: The JIMJOHNSON Law of Morons.

The law: As the population increases incrementally, the effect of morons increases exponentially.

In simple language, put a moron in a pasture with cattle and he's a nuisance who keeps the cows awake with his inane chatter. Put a moron at the head of the airport screening line, and youre gonna miss your plane.

 

[oggbashan]

ISHTAT

The Brits ruled India for a long time.

Most people dont care who it is that robs and abuses them.

For most of the time India was not ruled by the British but by a commercial company for profit.

Who actually rules most countries now? Not the elected governments but the international companies who have more power than the voters.

Og

 

[keeblercrumb]

Rocket Man

ISHTAT

The Brits ruled India for a long time.

Most people dont care who it is that robs and abuses them.

But as Gary Becher wryly noted (aka The War Nerd) when describing their 1903 invasion of Tibet (yes, THAT Tibet), don't be mislead by their Victorian manners, the 19th century Brits were stone cold killers....

What made their conquests of India so amazing, is that they did it with mostly Indian troups, simply playing one Raj off against the other until they were the only military power in town.

Not exactly the nuclear Armed India of today.

-KC

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

KEEBLER

I can do the same anywhere today, because people havent changed.

The Muslims were so successful because they offered adversaries a choice between 1) peace and freedom from taxes, and 2) strife with taxes. Most adversaries jumped at the tax offer...that is, their people did.

 

[keeblercrumb]

Rocket Man

Don't talk sense to me when I'm trying to panic.

I can't let this thread pass without acknowledging yet another wry and witty post by the unchallenged master of them....

Feel free to panic, Good Doctor, the worst you can be is wrong....



-KC

 

[ishtat]

Robert Clive

ISHTAT

The Brits ruled India for a long time.

James I think you would enjoy the Wikipoedia article on "Robert Clive" who more than anyone else was responsible for the conquest/puloining of India. Rogue, liar, mentally depressed, bi sexual (he eventually suicided) none the less a politico/military genius of the first rank whose successes seem hardly believable.

He was I suspect your kind of soldier.

 

[JAMESBJOHNSON]

ISHTAT

History is filled with exemplary soldiers. Most of them understand human nature.