For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[BAstoicguy]

It has been three years, not three days, but Putin still believes he can win on the battlefield. That belief will severely slow potential negotiations—as long as Putin thinks fighting benefits him, he has little incentive to make a deal. U.S. and European allies must change this calculus and change it quickly. Specifically, Western nations must signal that military assistance will accelerate in volume and capability the longer the fighting goes on. This will raise the cost side of Putin’s equation to the point that Russia comes to the table with an incentive to negotiate.

Emily Harding, Aosheng Pusztaszeri, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Link: HotAir.com

 

[ChloeTzang]

This Trump move was expected by a fair number of us. Duh! Realpolitik.

Just not to Canadians, Europeans & Biden supporters, who suffer from a massive case of selective amnesia about President Trump ordering the destruction of Wagner at Deir ez-Zor province in Syria 2018. And if you think he's going to have a fight on his hand with congress and his base, no, he's not. The big MAGA bitch is about billions being given to Ukraine. Never mind that those billions are the replacement cost of old end of life equipment and ammo that would cost more to dispose of than it's actually worth.

We're giving Ukraine pennies worth of old equipment (end of life Bradleys, Strykers and old Abrams) from the dollar budgeted for replacements. Trump will sell the stuff to Ukraine (at book value - and an old Bradley is worth very little after its been depreciated), they'll be loaned the money (lend-lease) and it will be paid for by income of frozen Russian assets. So in the end, Russia will be paying to reequip the Ukraine military.

Now, factor in that Trump is NOT up for re-election and he likes to win, and guess what...Putin either negotiates realistically, or he's fucked. Don't forget it was Trump who told Putin he's nuke Moscow. And who knows if he was bluffing or not.....

Original source is Financial Times, but that's behind a paywall
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/trump-plans-to-continue-weapons-supply-to-1734717437.html

 

[Rightguide]

Foreign Affairs

Ukraine Has Had Its Fill​

With crucial territory and infrastructure falling to the Russians, Ukrainian public opinion is swinging precipitously against their leaders and the war.

Ted Snider
Dec 21, 202412:03 AM
The Russian armed forces are now less than two miles away from overwhelming the city of Pokrovsk. The conquest of that city will have three major consequences for Ukraine. The first is that Pokrovsk is a key logistical hub, the loss of which would threaten the Ukrainian armed forces’ ability to supply their troops in the Donbas. The second is that, beyond Pokrovsk, Russian troops may find mostly undefended fields as they continue their march west across the Donbas. The third is that Pokrovsk is home to Ukraine’s only coking coal mine.

Coking coal is essential in the manufacture of steel. The loss of Pokrovsk would affect not only Ukraine’s economy, but its ability to obtain steel for its military manufacturing industry. As the tide of Russian troops rushes toward Pokrovsk, the coking mine has been forced to shut down 50 percent of its operating capacity. If the remainder is lost, Ukraine’s steel production could plummet by 60-75 percent.

The battlefield reality is changing rapidly. Russian forces captured over 1,500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in October and November, and that pace has quickened in December. And it is not just land, but key logistical and heavily fortified cities that are falling. Perhaps more importantly, troops and weapons are being exhausted. Deaths, injuries and desertions are horrifically high; morale is desperately low.

On December 18, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky conceded that Crimea and the Donbas are lost to Ukraine. “De facto,” he said, “these territories are now controlled by the Russians. We don’t have the strength to bring them back.” Once again making the important distinction between de facto recognition and formal recognition, Zelensky said that Ukraine would rely, not on the Ukrainian military, but on “diplomatic pressure from the international community” to reacquire its lost territory.

Much more here: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/ukraine-has-had-its-fill/

 

[ll74]

Russia locking down butter to compensate for price surge.

Russians are obviously benefiting from the war.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-...kDmHez91oXdBgYq0IKpyoVKbWW8jj--vyBpdA01VhBDQt

 

[dmallord]

Russia: Former deputy mayor of Krasnoyarsk, Alexey Davydov (39), fell out of an 11th floor window of the Investigative Committee building during interrogation. He was detained 5 days ago on suspicion of bribery. Russian windows are doing a lot of heavy lifting in this war.....

Someone training their camera on the upper floors of the Investigative Committee building is about the most Russian thing I've seen in a while.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1866799986572488964

View attachment 2443141

broken link.

 

[Rightguide]

West has pumped over $300 billion into Ukraine – Orban​

Via RT
https://mf.b37mrtl.ru/files/2024.12/l/67657e5685f54057c2393a35.jpg
The US and the EU have provided over $300 billion in financial aid and military assistance to Kiev since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said.

Such a huge amount of money “could have done wonders” had it been spent to improve the lives of people within the EU, he said in an interview with Kossuth radio on Friday.

Orban highlighted the evolving military situation, noting that “the balance of power on the frontlines is shifting day by day” in Russia’s favor. He also pointed to the political changes expected in the US when Donald Trump returns to the White House next month.

The developments call for leaders in EU capitals to embrace a more pragmatic approach to ensuring stability and economic resilience within the bloc, Orban believes. However, the prime minister argued that Brussels remains out of touch with global realities, pointing to a recent European Parliament decision to continue sending substantial funds to Kiev – a move he described as a clear example of misplaced priorities.

More here: https://www.theburningplatform.com/2024/12/21/west-has-pumped-over-300-billion-into-ukraine-orban/

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Russian farmers used to buy Dutch seeds to ensure a good harvest. Since the beginning of the SMO, they haven't been able to buy any. Welcome back to the good old days, Russians.....

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

More than 30 people survived an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan. The aircraft was carrying 62 passengers and five crew was en route from Baku to Grozny in Chechnya. The passenger plane operated by Azerbaijan Airlines burst into flames as it crashed near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan after veering hundreds of miles off its planned route. The flight was carrying 62 passengers and five crew members, the airline said on Wednesday, suggesting that 30 people had died in the crash. Kazakh authorities said that at least 29 of the survivors, a tally that is believed to include two children, were being treated in a nearby hospital. Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry said in a statement that some were in critical condition. The plane was en route from Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, to the Russian city of Grozny in Chechnya. A preliminary assessment suggested that both pilots had died in the crash, Russian news agency Interfax reported.

There is increasing speculation in Russian media that the Baku-Grozny flight was shot down by Russian air defenses that mistook it for a Ukrainian drone. It was apparently hit while trying to land in Grozny. Data from Flightradar24 showed fluctuating altitude and speed before the emergency landing request. The holes seen in the fuselage apparently not from Birdstrike or stones. Azerbaijani Airlines Plane was hit approaching Grozny - pilots then diverted to Aktau where the damaged plane lost its hydraulics (from damage) and crashed…

Other reports that the crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane was forced to divert to Aktau as an alternate airport while Ukrainian kamikaze UAVs were targeting Grozny, Chechnya earlier today. Not going to pretend I know anything about this but I read a comment saying the kind of oscillation you see in the longer video clips of this is consistent with trying to steer using engine thrust after a hydraulic failure - as the nose drops it gains speed causing it to pitch up, then as it slows it pitches down.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-azerbaijan-airlines-baku-grozny-fog-chechnya

https://twitter.com/x/status/1871835159852687549

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Palianytsia, Ruta, Peklo — In 2024, Ukraine commenced mass production of rocket drones capable of reaching significant distances into russia to strike military targets there. In 2025, more than 30,000 Deep Strike drones will be delivered for the Ukrainian military for use against Russian targets.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Russian air defense most likely caused the crash of an Embraer 190 passenger plane during a Ukrainian UAV attack on Grozny, in Chechnya:

The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger plane had 67 passengers and 5 crew members on board - 72 people in total. 32 people survived the crash. 40 died, including the pilot and co-pilot. All survivors were in the tail section of the plane. The plane took off from Baku at 6:50 Moscow time and was scheduled to land in Grozny at 8:20. But just before landing in Grozny, the plane aborted, turned around and flew across the Caspian Sea towards Kazakhstan. Where it crashed. As the plane was approaching Grozny, an air raid alert was issued in the region due to a kamikaze drone attack. Russian air defense was actively engaged.

The tail section of the plane survived the crash and witnesses were able to capture on video considerable damage on the tail that is consistent with a hit from air defense missiles. Some passengers have already managed to give short testimonies and comment on what happened. Thus, Zaur Mamedov, one of the survivors of the plane crash, says: “For the third time, something exploded. There was an explosion - I wouldn’t say that it was inside the plane. Where I was sitting, the lining next to me flew off.” He added that he reached for his life jacket, and there was a hole in it: “I took the jacket, and I look: there was a hole in the jacket - a piece of shrapnel had pierced it. After this explosion, right between my legs - somewhere there - this piece of shrapnel flew in and hit me. It pierced the jacket right through.”

Following the crash of its plane, Azerbaijan Airlines cancelled all Baku-Grozny-Baku and Baku-Makhachkala-Baku flights. Even channels of many Russian propagandists do not hide that they are inclined to believe that plane was damaged by Russian air defences. For example one of the Russian telegram channels associated with the Russian military aviation writes the following: “Based on this video, it can be said that this explosion is not from inside of the plane. Does this look like an SAM system explosion? I can definitely answer - yes. This is exactly what the skin of the aircraft looks like after a SAM missile explosion….“



LOL. This, incidentally, is why, when I fly, I always get a seat right at the back of the plane. The stats on aircraft crash survivors are almost all skewed towards that rear third of the aircraft. Hits last, no fuel tanks, breaks off.....Business Class passengers sit up front and die first.

 

[ChloeTzang]

One wonders when the Baltic countries will have had enough and decide to put a stop to this.

 

[ChloeTzang]

And here we go....Russia reportedly attempted to make the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in to the sea by refusing permission to let it land after hitting it with a SAM missile attack and then jamming its navigation system. The missile was fired at Flight 8432 amid drone air activity above Grozny, the Chechen capital, citing a preliminary investigation. The pilot was blocked from landing at any Russian airports despite making emergency pleas, and was instead ordered to divert into Kazakhstan. The Azeri Times confirmed that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane was denied emergency landings by Russia at three nearby airports, despite its critical condition. The news outlet also stated that the plane was subjected to 'extreme GPS jamming' which forced its hero pilot, Aleksandr Kalyaninov, to divert the flight over the Caspian Sea, where it eventually attempyted to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Local media cited government sources in suggesting jammers 'paralysed' the plane's communication systems'.

Government sources said previously the plane was hit by a missile fired from a Pantsir-S air defence system from the Naursky district of Chechnya. Kazakhstan has said it would be carrying out an investigation into the crash, suggesting it would cooperate with Azerbaijan but not Russia. Azerbaijan is understood to be conducting its own investigation.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-force-hero-pilot-water-crash-killed-38.html

 

[ll74]

And here we go....Russia reportedly attempted to make the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in to the sea by refusing permission to let it land after hitting it with a SAM missile attack and then jamming its navigation system. The missile was fired at Flight 8432 amid drone air activity above Grozny, the Chechen capital, citing a preliminary investigation. The pilot was blocked from landing at any Russian airports despite making emergency pleas, and was instead ordered to divert into Kazakhstan. The Azeri Times confirmed that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane was denied emergency landings by Russia at three nearby airports, despite its critical condition. The news outlet also stated that the plane was subjected to 'extreme GPS jamming' which forced its hero pilot, Aleksandr Kalyaninov, to divert the flight over the Caspian Sea, where it eventually attempyted to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Local media cited government sources in suggesting jammers 'paralysed' the plane's communication systems'.

Government sources said previously the plane was hit by a missile fired from a Pantsir-S air defence system from the Naursky district of Chechnya. Kazakhstan has said it would be carrying out an investigation into the crash, suggesting it would cooperate with Azerbaijan but not Russia. Azerbaijan is understood to be conducting its own investigation.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-force-hero-pilot-water-crash-killed-38.html

View attachment 2453405

The real watch out here - don't try to fly to Russia.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The real watch out here - don't try to fly to Russia.

Absolutely. Trigger happy and poorly trained. I'm surprised they were still flying in to Grozny to be honest. It's been hit before. Moscow has to be pretty dicey to fly into these days as well. If I was the ZSU, all those Moscow air terminals would be on my hit list.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

They almost got it down too......that was some good flying under the circumstances

https://twitter.com/x/status/1871984507186020825

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]