For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[ChloeTzang]

A Few Thoughts....

It would be much easier to convince Ukrainians under the age of 25 to voluntarily join the military without expanding the draft in Ukraine as Jake Sullivan wants if the Biden Administration had, at any point over this past year, supplied Ukraine with enough armored vehicles to outfit a dozen Brigades - and that's not that many in compaison to what we have sitting out there in storage areas in the desert. Sadly, the powers-that-be among Team Blue’s oh-so-brilliant (yes, sarcasm) "leaders "appear to have decided that the risk of Ukraine winning under Trump outweighs any benefits to be gained from trying to arm Ukraine fully before Trump takes office.

There continues to be talk of hundreds of armored vehicles, but so far, it's all been talk-talk. Nothing delivered. Unless the deliveries hit at least two dozen in the next two weeks with more confirmed as en-route, one will only be able to conclude that Team Biden has decided to sell out Ukraine one last time while they have the chance. Resisting fascism by waiting it out is very on brand for a standard-grade postmodern American Democrat-social justice-cosplaying liberal.

But democracy and the Constitution are just words to Vichy Democrats, their definitions are whatever the high priests on TV insist is true this season. Anyway, whatever. The rumor mill has it that Putin gave Trump’s negotiating team the middle finger, which if true is pretty much what I figured would happen if the orcs couldn’t reclaim Kursk by Trump’s inauguration. It's very, very difficult to see any practical grounds for a stable ceasefire in the foreseeable future. Which leaves victory the best option for everybody. But will Team Trump correctly perceive its own self-interest lies in doing what Team Biden would not - arming and equipping Ukraine to win?

Meanwhile, Europe continues to muddle its way towards a situation where the members of NATO and the EU that feel the most concerned about Moscow drive policy for the continent. That’s no bad thing, and there is reason to hope that the Ramstein protocol - which includes the Pacific democracies - will evolve into a permanent mechanism to contain russia. A former European leader recently remarked that Europe can no longer base its security on the whims of voters in the American Rust Belt. So at least, they are seeing the light. They cannot freeload defence of the USA any longer. He's hoping that translates into more military aid for Ukraine over 2025.

 

[Politruk]

A Few Thoughts....

It would be much easier to convince Ukrainians under the age of 25 to voluntarily join the military without expanding the draft in Ukraine as Jake Sullivan wants if the Biden Administration had, at any point over this past year, supplied Ukraine with enough armored vehicles to outfit a dozen Brigades - and that's not that many in compaison to what we have sitting out there in storage areas in the desert. Sadly, the powers-that-be among Team Blue’s oh-so-brilliant (yes, sarcasm) "leaders "appear to have decided that the risk of Ukraine winning under Trump outweighs any benefits to be gained from trying to arm Ukraine fully before Trump takes office.

You don't really believe Trump is going to give Ukraine more help than Biden has, or even as much.

 

[ChloeTzang]

You don't really believe Trump is going to give Ukraine more help than Biden has, or even as much.

I can't see Trump cutting Ukraine off. MAGA anti-Ukraine pro-Putin useful idiots aside, there's too mucd bipartisan support, much of it amongst the GOP, for that to happen. Also, note that Trumps foreign policy appointees are largely hawks, and his Ukraine negotiator, Kellogg, has been consistently pro-Ukraine. Kellogg is a retired US army general and served as a national security adviser to the former vice-president Mike Pence during Trump’s first presidency. Kellogg later became acting security adviser to Trump himself after Michael Flynn resigned in 2017. As per his plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, Kellogg previously told Reuters that he would emphasize getting the two countries to the negotiating table.

Now, Zelensky will come to the negotiating table. He's said so, but what Putin demands and what Ukraine will concede are worlds apart Putin doesn't want just a few oblasts. He wants Ukraine to fold, Zelensky gone and Ukraine handed over on a plate. Ain't happening and Trump won't agree to that. He's no surrender-monkey. He wants a deal, and if Putin won't deal, Trump has already said he'll turn on the taps. My belief is that exactly that will happen. We all know Putin won't negotiate in good faith. We all know Ukraine wants iron-clad security guarantees and that means foreign military on the ground on the border, or membership of NATO. Both of these would preclude Putin from taking the rest of Ukraine as soon as he manages to rebuild the Russian military. And Ukraine still holds a chunk of Kursk. Nope, Putin won't deal until he takes back Kursk - because that gives Ukraine negotiating leverage. It was a good move. By Ukraine.

So Putin will give Trump the middle finger, which he has already done. Trump will do a lend-lease deal with Ukraine - no freebies, no "billions" (which never went to Ukraine anyhow, it all went to US defense contractors) but he WILL sell Ukraine old Bradleys and Abrams and Strykers, and maybe F16's and A10's, and he will probably okay Sweden turning over Gripens to Ukraine too. Ukraine will launch an offensive in mid-2025, cross the Dnipr, bring down the Kerch bridge and take southern Kherson and Crimea, as well as cut behind the Russians and retake Mariupol. Putin will be suicided and the Russian military will collapse. Maybe even the Russian economy. Certainly their oil exports will be trashed by then.

After that.....who knows. But I'll buy you a coffee if I'm wrong.

 

[ChloeTzang]

The United States forced the Ukrainian Armed Forces to let the Russians retreat from Kherson in 2022; otherwise, Putin could have used a nuclear weapon, according to American journalist Bob Woodward.
- The original plan was to pursue the retreating Russian troops and launch massive strikes, but this did not happen.
- The probability of a nuclear strike after such actions was estimated at 50% by U.S. intelligence, as warned to Joe Biden.
- Thus, the Russians secured guarantees and retreated, retaining 30,000 soldiers and equipment.

This was speculated about at the time. There was a lot of questioning as to why the russians were allowed to retreat so easily, as they could have been caught/stopped. So, it seems russia was successful in scaring the Biden admin and misleading the American "intelligence community", yet again. Biden and Sullivan are the world’s biggest ball-less fools, a pair of irredeemable cowards.

Literally nobody believes that Putin would have used a nuclear weapon other than Joe Biden and Jake Sullivan. Russia has had 800,000 Russians killed and injured in Ukraine. They wouldn’t be using a nuclear weapon if 20,000 more were killed or injured.

History will remember Biden as one of the two worst presidents ever. The other one just died.

 

[Politruk]

He wants a deal, and if Putin won't deal, Trump has already said he'll turn on the taps. My belief is that exactly that will happen. We all know Putin won't negotiate in good faith.

We also know Trump won't ever do anything Putin doesn't want him to.

 

[Niceguy2000]

It's odd that liberals...usually anti-war, peace at all costs, call Trump names for trying to broker a peace deal.
-Does anyone here REALLY think Putin is going to wake up one day and withdrawal?

-Sanctions aren't working well enough.
-He has allies who are helping him with men, supplies, oil, and sanction work arounds.
-He controls the media at home and despite losses, still seems to have popular support.
So, in face of that...will he concede?
No.
If you were him, would you?

So, if he won't win and Ukraine can't win militarily, when will this end?

We may not like it, but sometimes the bad guys win. EXAMPLE: The west didn't like that the USSR subjugated Eastern Europe for 50 years, but NATO didn't want to send its sons to fight Russia. So, they let Stalin have his way. They weren't happy about it, but it was deemed to be in their best interest not to fight WWIII.

So, unless you know a way for Ukraine to win on the battlefield or get Putin to withdrawal, isn't it time come up with a compromise now to save Ukrainian lives?

Not a fan of Russia. Not a Putin stooge.
Just being pragmatic.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

.....So, unless you know a way for Ukraine to win on the battlefield or get Putin to withdrawal, isn't it time come up with a compromise now to save Ukrainian lives?

Not a fan of Russia. Not a Putin stooge.
Just being pragmatic.

Being pragmatic, Ukraine has demonstrated that with the military equipment they need, they CAN win.

What they need are air defense systems, aircraft, helicopters, artillery ammo, IFV's, tanks, and all the ancillary equipment that equips military units - all of which they are still short of, all of which we can supply, together with the EU. That, and training, training and more training.

The ZSU is not holding a chunk of Kursk because they cannot fight. Russia is, despite appearances, losing this war militarily and economically and as long as we keep supporting Ukraine adequately, Russia will crack. They can fight on without the US if they need to - they've already proved that - a huge % of the aid they are promised has never arrived and they have seen Biden for what he is - and the Biden Administration's failure to support Ukraine in reality is one of the reasons Putin is still in this war.

 

[Niceguy2000]

Chloe...
I'm a huge fan of your work and agree with your political comments, but even with more aid (which I think is taken out of the US defense budget), Russia isn't going to quit and despite its flaws, can still produce a lot of war material. Soldiers they can get too, from "press gangs" around its empire (after North Koreans, I wonder how long it will be before we see Iranians, Palestinians and the like? Cubans or Africans perhaps?).

And remember, there is no real opposition media in Russia. The majority will believe (perhaps very cynically) what they are told. With the internet and social media it's not quite as bad as it was back in the USSR, but the general population is still going to believe what Putin tells them.
(Years ago I would have blamed the people for being so gullible, but after the last 8 years in America and seeing how a one sided media can control people....I have to change my views).

Putin can't quit. Given the situation in the country, he wouldn't live to an old age in a retirement home in the Russian equivalent of Delaware with Jillski giving Joe...sorry, Valdimer....warm soup.

I haven't seen any numbers on Ukrainian force numbers.
Do the Ukrainians have the manpower... and willpower to see this thing through?
Are Ukrainians losing the will to fight?

And sadly it takes time to train pilots, so even with donated aircraft they won't be a quick fix.
The A-10 you mention is a possible exception, flying it is pretty straightforward (I was in a A-10 unit in Europe), not a "systems" type...meaning it would be quick to train in. However, learning the proper CAS tactics, so you're not shot down would take time.

I'm on your side, bit do all the numbers add up?

 

[ChloeTzang]

I'm on your side, bit do all the numbers add up?

Well, if you look at them they start to show we're approaching an inversion point, with the real inversion happening mid-2025.

Russia is keeping themselves in the game by ransacking their old storage depots for tanks, IFV's and artillery (and stripping artillery barrels). The tanks and IFV's and guns coming out are old 1950's and 60's models. Good enough against civilians with rifles but not against a real Army, and the ZSU is now very much a real army, even with shortages. There are no armored breakthroughs by the Russians these days. They run small armored units towards the front and they are annihilated, time after time. So, tanks and IFV's are not going to get them anywhere. The stockpiles are drying up, the easily restorable armor is gone and the ones left take a lot more work to get into action. New tanks are being wiped out as soon as they reach the front and in fact the Ukrainians have captured quite a few T90's and are rebuilding their own from the kitsets supplied by the Russians.

Tanks? Leopards keep trickling in. Oz is sending 50 Abrams. Ukraine is fixing up and returning their own and Russian tanks. There's no miracle going to happen here, altho with a bit of kickass there are possibilities - but it's unlikely that those 300 Jordanian Challenger 1's will magically make their way to be refurbished and delivered to Ukraine. Nope, the only miracle that could happen here is that the USA gets off its ass and sends a couple of hundred Abrams. Could happen. Will it? I doubt it.

Now lets look at IFV's. Marders keep trickling in from Germany as they are refurbished. All of the old stuff that is going to be delivered probably already has been - but the Lynx IFV's are now rolling of the Ukrainian production line - the 1st 10 have been delivered, they plan to turn out 400 over 2025, along with a goodly number of Fuchs - and there are a couple of hundred CV90's underway for delivery. It won't happen tomorrow tho - and again, the miracle would be the USA turning over a few hundred more Bradley's and Strykers - and Biden should burn in hell for his failure to deliver these. Will not getting these case Ukraine to lose? No, but it will drag out the winning. The ZSU needs these badly, for both mobility, fire support and keeping casualties down. Those Bradley's are awesome, and so are the Lynx's, but there's nowhere near enough of them. There will be, but that's a year out.

Guns? The Russian guns have been hammered, the guns they are using are now mostly old models, outranged and their artillery crews are poorly trained and quickly wiped out. North Korean and Iran have kept them supplied with ammo (and they are getting North Korean SPG's but those won't last long in action), and they make up in volume of fire what they lack in accuracy. That said, volume of fire wears out barrels and Russia cannot manufacture enough barrels to replace, if the guns even last that long now. The Ukrainians have less guns, less ammo but greater range, better training and much better accuracy. And they are getting new guns all the time. Their own plant(s) is producing 20 x 155mm's a month and they are getting Czech and Slovak guns as well as the new German SPG's and Caesars. Ukraine is winning the artillery war and with enough ammo, will have artillery superiority soon.

Germany is now stepping up and recently supplied 50,000 x 155mm shells and is continuing to do this. Rheinmetall is stepping up production, Ukraine is stepping up their own production. The Czech initative continues to roll ammo into Ukraine....ammo from the USA is needed, but no longer critical to Ukraine's survival.

Manpower? Russia is losing more than they can replace every month now. Average losses are 1500 a day - 45k a month, and they can feed in around 30-35k a month. That's why they needed the North Koreans. Now, look at Russian offensives. They are no longer attacking everywhere in massive meat attacks. It's focus on a couple of what they see as key objectives, none of which are strategic and all of which will not be a disaster if Ukraine loses them. Those attacks are being contained and Russia is losing enormous numbers for non-strategic gains.

Drone and missile wars? Ukraine seems to have hit a new normal with respect to the strike campaign, with regular drone waves testing and stretching Russian air defenses while causing some mayhem, opening the door for bigger hits with precision missiles. Moscow attempts the same drill, but with more limited success thanks to Ukraine steadily building up its air defenses - though not enough. With 3,000 small cruise missile drone hybrids and 10,000 long-range drones scheduled for delivery in 2025, Ukraine should be able to expend hundreds of each on a monthly basis while retaining the capability to launch some truly overwhelming strikes.

Moscow, unfortunately, has been able to increase its own missile stockpiles despite sanctions. But if global Patriot interceptor production keeps pace, as it should be able to, in a relative sense Moscow will soon find itself trapped in an unpleasant situation of effective parity, at best, when it comes to strategic strikes. If Ukraine can use a significant fraction of its new assets on operational level attacks to interrupt supplies flowing to a particular front, the effects could be spectacular by summer.

Air War? The aerial fight is also trending Ukraine’s direction, if slowly. The first Mirage 2000 jets have arrived, with around ten planned by summer, and they ought to allow Ukraine to conduct opportunistic raids on high value targets. Having to rely on improvised mechanisms that need substantial pre-flight programming work limits how quickly Ukraine can respond to intelligence. But a Mirage on patrol carrying even a single Storm Shadow can be tasked in flight to take advantage of a chance to slip a weapon literally under the enemy radar to knock out a meeting of commanders. If, by summer, Ukraine does not operate at least a half dozen Gripen jets with their Meteor missiles that can outrange anything launched by Russian jets, then Europe truly is so dependent on the US that it had better do whatever Trump says. Assuming that Swedish AWACS aircraft are on patrol by then, as they should be, Ukraine would gain the ability to seize control of the skies for at least a limited time whenever it chooses.

Also, Moscow still hasn’t managed to kill an F16 Viper yet, yet every time the Russian missile waves come, Vipers are up there knocking down incoming and saving lives. One has to wonder if the best possible advanced training for a newly qualified combat pilot once they have basic competence flying the F-16 isn’t simply hunting Shaheds and Kalibrs in western Ukraine. And there's 200 wannabe F16 pilots just gone thru basic flight training in the UK. Now, all Ukraine needs is 200 F16's...... maybe a lend-lease purchase? Who knows. To train that many, they're obviously expecting to get more.... and there are still more European F16's being refurbished....

Air Defences - now there's an issue: Germany is knocking out IRIS systems and delivering - and Ukraine is now talking to Italy about buying air defence systems using frozen Russian assets to pay. Good move. They're also working on their own air defense systems. They have asked repeatedly to be able to manufacture Patriots under license but I also read somewhere they are busy working on their own knockoff. Wouldn't that be fun.

As for manpower, they have it but their draft and training system still has wrinkles that need ironing out and there IS dissatisfaction over this and about fuckups by senior officers. THAT needs fixing, but it looks like it is slowly being brought to light and worked on. And if you listen to Ukrainians, and not the western media, Ukraine is in this fight to win, one way or the other.

And as for the ucharest memorandum, the latest Ukrainian postage stamp says whats needed to be said. And Ukraine does have the ability and capability to go nuclear if needed. THAT is something for everyone to keep in mind, because my bet is that if Ukraine is not admitted to NATO, they WILL go nuclear. They don't have a choice.

 

[ChloeTzang]

In Tatarstan, the Taneco oil refinery is on fire: an air raid alert has been declared in the region, unknown drones are being sought. It is reported that the plant's employees are being evacuated, while firefighters are trying to localize the fire. One of the columns is on fire. Before that, an air raid alert sounded in the region.

Taneco is one of the largest oil refineries in the russian federation, refining about 16.2 million tons of oil annually.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1878194035199815838

What is important about it is not its size, but rather that it has a petrochemical plant coupled to the refinery that makes base Stock for synthetic rubber and plastic polymer manufacturing and is located in close proximity to other factories (KAMAZ, Yelabuga drone plant, etc) that use its products. With all the strikes on drone launch bases (Millerova, Yeysk) and other plastic and chemical plants in Rostov and Leningrad in the last week, one might think has a plan here to reduce capacity to produce and launch those drones

 

[Niceguy2000]

I like your optimism!
However, I'd be cautious about sourcing some numbers.

I checked today, the Russians have lost somewhere between 120-200,000 men killed. But as Germany found out in the last European war, you can't bleed Russia dry.

If nothing else, this war has exposed the Russians for their true selves.

Hopefully, Trump will be more aggressive in dealing with Putin...and with the remaining NATO members who are still lagging on defense...Croatia, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Luxembourg and Canada. The last is no surprise, their entire combat air force is about the size of two USAF fighter wings.

While talking a lot, Biden has been too cautious in helping Ukraine, for example by not releasing surplus U.S. jets. I think he's afraid of angering Putin or more plausibly, afraid of alienating his party's left wing who for the last 50 years have been anti war to the point of being pro Soviet/Russian.

Of course Putin has done a service to the west, most NATO members have increased their defense budgets in light of his aggression.

 

[Politruk]

We also know Trump won't ever do anything Putin doesn't want him to.

This cannot be repeated often enough.

 

[ChloeTzang]

This cannot be repeated often enough.

Too much koolaid drunk

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Germany to deploy two Patriot air defense systems in Poland to protect aid center for Ukraine​

Two MIM-104 Patriot systems and 200 Bundeswehr soldiers will be deployed in Poland for about six months, starting in late January 2025. In addition to Germany, Norway also deployed its air defense systems to protect the logistics center. In December 2024, Norway deployed the NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system at Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport. The Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport in Poland is a key transit hub for foreign military support for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. This hub receives 90% of Western aid to Ukraine.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/germany-t...otect-aid-center-for-ukraine/#google_vignette

 

[ChloeTzang]

Neptune Missile Hits Military Warehouse in Rostov Region​

This is what you do with drones and cruise missiles. You run local Russian air defense out of missiles & gun munitions and then the cruise missile arrives.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/neptune-missile-hits-military-warehouse-in-rostov-region/

 

[ChloeTzang]

In case anyone missed the obvious, Russian losses in 2024 were greater than 2022 and 2023 combined. It is worth noting that the Russian loss of ~429,660 personnel in 2024 is similar to British losses in the WW1 Somme campaign. There is one very important difference between the Somme and the 2022 to date Russo-Ukrainian War. The WW1 British lost ~1 KIA for every 4-5 WIA in the Somme. Most of the UK missing and 1 in 10 of the wounded were either dead, or died of wound infections, respectively.

While Russia's loss ratio in Ukraine & Kursk Oblast is of the order of 1:1 - 1.5 between KIA and WIA due to failed or non-existent field medicine or medevac (specifically 15,000 KIA out of 38,000 casualties in Kursk for a ratio of 1:1.5 KIA:WIA). Russia simply leaves its dead and its wounded (dying of blood loss) behind, and has done so for years. There have been a lot of Ukrainian drone and Russian Gopro camera videos emerged in recent weeks showing former farm pigs consuming the abandoned remains of Russian troops. The most damning video in that regard shows a herd of wild pigs converging on a Ukrainian FPV drone loitering in 'ground ambush mode' for a passing Russian vehicle. That herd of wild pigs had learned that the sound of Ukrainian FPV drones means there are abandoned bodies of Russian troops to eat - which proves that the Russian practice of abandoning their wounded and dead has been persistent for years.

That Russian 1 KIA to 1.5 WIA casualty ratio mapped into 800,000 works out to the following:
RuAF KIA - 266,667
RuAF WIA - 533,333
1/10 Died of wounds - 53,333
RuAF Missing - 50,000**

Russian non-combat deaths are in addition to the 320,000 KIA plus 1/10 died of wounds. However, many of the "missing" are likely Russian soldiers who had 'non-combat deaths' like freezing to death or 'dying by misadventure' due to alcohol. Given Ukrainian pig behavior videos we are seeing./, it is likely that 4/5ths of the 50,000 missing in Russian MoD requests to Ukraine are deaths. IOW, Russia has taken at least 360,000 deaths from all causes since Feb 2022. The pavlovian trained Ukrainian piggies tell us what happened to a lot of those Russian's bodies.

 

[Niceguy2000]

Well, I have never seen a Russian medevac helicopter....
So, their version of MASH is roving pigs?

In Europe during the cold war, we were told the Soviets would not take prisoners...IF you survived the nerve gas.
We expected attacks from special forces...embedded in the local population or by "tourists".

I see that the North Korean casualties are now reportedly about 30%...with at least 300 to 1000 Kia (I see different numbers, the London Daily Telegraph attributes the high number to U.S. sources) out of 10,000 deployed.
The Wall Street Journal published a letter from a dead Korean...telling how they send a soldier out in the open to attract drones which he says (hopes) are shot down.
The story also states the Russians use the Koreans as bait...sending them en mass to Ukrainian positions, before Russian special forces attack.
Also, the NK troops are told they are going to Russia for training (and perhaps the chance to get a decent meal), no one mentions combat. They probably think it's a big adventure, their first airplane flight and all.
If these are accurate, one wonders how long N. Korea will stand for this. But of course there there is absolutely no media or criticism, so Kim may not really care his the trade deal with Russia is in his best interest.

I routinely check internet articles, the U.S. government typically downplays Russian losses, the Ukrainians give higher figures. The Russians quit talking about it after a couple of months.

Some European journalists are counting open source records...obits and funeral notices as well as counting new military graves throughout the country. They can positively ID 88,000 kia...and they, and the UK military, assume the real number is at least double that. So perhaps 200,000. But is that enough to deter Putin?

Their armor equipment must be getting low, luckily for them, they never seem to scrap old stuff. I wonder how long it will be before some of the good stuff Biden willingly abandoned in Afghanistan is used by the Russians.

I want to see the good guys win, but at the same time I'm leery about a tripping our military equipment and budget for an uncertain outcome.
The American military has a host of needs and you can bet that the liberals will want to tale every dollar given to Ukraine out of the Defense budget.

That would be dangerous, especially since we have threats in other parts of the world. At least the election of Trump will buy the west four years before Russia, Iran or China get adventurous.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

The German-language Stuttgarter Zeitung reported that the first six RCH 155 wheeled self-propelled howitzers (SPHs) have been handed over to the Ukrainian military at Rheinmetall’s plant in Kassel. The initial half-dozen vehicles will be employed to train Ukrainian military personnel on the German-made SPH. Berlin is providing fifty-four RCH 155 SPHs to Kyiv, with the timeline for delivery spread over 2025 and likely into 2026.

It is armed with a 155mm/L52 main gun, which is mounted to an 8x8 wheeled armored BOXER chassis. Unlike other self-propelled howitzers, which must stop to fire, the RCH 155 is capable of firing while on the move, enhancing its flexibility. The turret is remotely operated, resulting in a reduction in crew to just a commander and driver, yet it is still able to fire nine rounds per minute—providing “multiple round simultaneous impact” (MRSI) capability. The main gun, which is equipped with an autoloader, has a range of up to 40 km (25 miles) with base bleed (base burn) ordnance, and up to 54 km (33.5 miles) with Velocity Enhanced Long-Range Artillery Projectile (V-LAP) rounds. Even longer ranges are reported to be possible depending on the ammunition employed.

The RCH 155 can carry thirty primed projectiles or up to 144 modular charges. The main gun has an elevation that ranges from -2.5 to +65 degrees, which—unusual for an SPH—allows it to employ the main gun as a direct-fire weapon to engage other vehicles in its “hunter-killer” mode. It is powered by an MTU 8V199 TE21 engine that provides upwards of 816 hp (600 kW). It has an operational range of 700 km (400 miles) on the road and can reach a top speed of 103 km/h (60 mph). The vehicle’s turret is made of lightweight aluminum armor, which reduces its weight but still offers protection from small arms fire—up to 7.62mm calibers—as well as from artillery shell splinters. The front of the hull can also withstand fire from Russian 30x165mm armor-piercing rounds.

Basically, it's light, fast and a lot cheaper than a tracked and heavily armored SPG.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/b...witzers-are-getting-ready-roll-ukraine-214412

 

[ll74]

Interview with Boris Johnson - clears up the alleged negotiations that he supposedly tanked. Calls Putin a paper river

https://pca.st/episode/ac5a378b-5abc-4c3e-9892-66afb2c62808?t=2831

 

[ChloeTzang]

I like your optimism!
However, I'd be cautious about sourcing some numbers.

I checked today, the Russians have lost somewhere between 120-200,000 men killed. But as Germany found out in the last European war, you can't bleed Russia dry.

If nothing else, this war has exposed the Russians for their true selves.

Hopefully, Trump will be more aggressive in dealing with Putin...and with the remaining NATO members who are still lagging on defense...Croatia, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Luxembourg and Canada. The last is no surprise, their entire combat air force is about the size of two USAF fighter wings.

While talking a lot, Biden has been too cautious in helping Ukraine, for example by not releasing surplus U.S. jets. I think he's afraid of angering Putin or more plausibly, afraid of alienating his party's left wing who for the last 50 years have been anti war to the point of being pro Soviet/Russian.

Of course Putin has done a service to the west, most NATO members have increased their defense budgets in light of his aggression.

There's a lot of differences here. Russia isn't the USSR. A huge swath of young males, particularly the educated and wealthy, took the chicken run as soon as the war started. The Russian military can mobilize around 30-35k men a month. They are losing 45k. There are huge labor shortages in Russia. Inflation has goa a real grip. Oil exports are ....getting nuked. Well, droned anyhow. Russia is up against a wall and there's no relief in sight.

The only thing in their favor is the Ukrainian military is not as organized as it should be and their senior officers are not that competent, unfortunately. Half the pre-war army, which WAS very professional, has gone and the mobilization, training and organization has not been managed that competently. I'll dig up some articles on that and repost them.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Strategic targeting vs. tactical gains. While some focus on contested territories, others aim for economic arteries. The dynamics of modern warfare: winning battles or dismantling economies? The latest Ukrainian air and sea campaign is absolutely devastating for Putin. While Russians are bleeding to death for tiny villages in the Donbas, Ukraine is targeting economic neurocenters of Russia's economy.

Especially the frequency of successful Ukrainian strikes is impressive. Basically, every night another Russian facility in the oil and gas industry goes up in flames. We have even indications that Russia is running out of fire fighting material. It is a crisis on steroids.