For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[Lazaran]

Holy guscamole, Batman, do you see the logostics hits and the artillery taken out. Outstanding work by the ZSU as we reach 1,150 days into Putin's three days war.

It occurs to me that with the ZSU's FPV hits taking out 80% of the Russian meat moving up towards the frontline, and with all the logistics strikes, water supply is going to be an issue over this summer. Dehydration kills quite effectively. Something to keep in mind.

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The Ukrainians have so many advantages right now:

They’re defending, which is always easier.

They’re employing advanced drone guerrilla warfare and strategic long range strikes on critical Russian infrastructure while defending.

They’re still benefiting from the coalition / infrastructure that President Biden helped build.

They’re in the right and fighting for a just cause / purpose.

They’re backs are against the wall, and losing is not an option.



I still like their chances. (Maybe even more than before.)

Slava. Ukraini!!!

 

[ChloeTzang]

The Ukrainians have so many advantages right now:

They’re defending, which is always easier.

They’re employing advanced drone guerrilla warfare and strategic long range strikes on critical Russian infrastructure while defending.

They’re still benefiting from the coalition / infrastructure that President Biden helped build.

They’re in the right and fighting for a just cause / purpose.

They’re backs are against the wall, and losing is not an option.



I still like their chances. (Maybe even more than before.)

Slava. Ukraini!!!

I seriously think their position is improving here. The F16's and Mirage 2000's have helped a lot and they seem to be landing some good effective strikes on command posts and the like.

If they can start taking out oil refineries again, and more deep strikes targeting, railway bridges and factories.....I still think when they have enoughn missiles it would pay them to launch a massive strike at a single plant mid-shift and take out all the workers as well as the plant. And as for Russian airbases - if they can get the addresses of the key personnel by hacking Russian systems, target their houses at 1am or something and get them when they're in bed. Same with thwir oligarchs. Target their apartments or houses and blow the shit out of them..... ditto police stations....

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Hakkaa päälle!!!!

"A slice of a knife to a throat, and their blood turns to ice, Talvisota"

 

[ChloeTzang]

Russian artillery and logistics bening decimated

 

[ChloeTzang]

The exhaustion of Russia’s vehicle fleet is becoming increasingly evident. The reduced use of armored vehicles and the growing reliance on civilian vehicls, including motorcycles, golf carts, and vans (and let us not forget the poor donkeys.....), continues to signal a degradation in Russian maneuvering capabilities. During the winter, outside of Kursk, Russia achieved mostly tactical gains, notably in Kharkiv Oblast, the Chasiv Yar area and Kurakhove–Velyka Novosilka axis. While these advances have been troubling for Ukraine, Russia has so far failed to capitalize on them strategically.

Despite slow progress, Russia still retains the resources and capability to conduct active offensive operations through the summer and fall of 2025. However, as noted in analysis last year, the diminishing returns will determine whether Russia will continue this war. Though Russia managed to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast in the winter - as anticipated, progress in Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar has been much slower. At this rate, major battles for large cities like Zaporizhzhia are looking increasingly problematic for Russia.

For Ukraine, the situation is far from ideal. The threat of a full US cutoff, bad recruitment numbers, potential easing of sanctions on Russia, growing foreign efforts to destabilize Ukraine politically, and mounting internal challenges all contribute to a worrying outlook. Even without the US, the efforts to resolve the war diplomatically are likely to continue as both sides face mounting pressures.

Neither side is close to achieving a strategic victory, though Russia’s position has improved with the new White House administration. If no major changes occur, this phase of the war may end in a draw - one where neither side achieves its strategic objectives. Russia may retain control over certain Ukrainian regions - a modest reward, but one that leaves the door open to potentially finishing the job later.

The analysis above seems fairly solid. The key point to watch is how much Russia can actually produce, especially when it comes to new equipment. We already knew that about 70% of their gear is refurbished, with only the remaining portion being newly manufactured. That’s far from ideal for them, especially as their Soviet-era stockpiles continue to shrink. On the other hand, Ukraine also faces a serious challenge: the need to replace lost vehicles, artillery, tanks, and other equipment a process that is happening very slowly. Without U.S. support, there’s likely to be a significant capability gap for quite some time, assuming the Europeans even step up to fill the void. Another growing issue for Ukraine is manpower. Over time, the strain on the army’s personnel will become more apparent. That said, they can still manage to fill that gap for another 1–2 years without major problems.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Trump is "ready to conced Crimea to Putin" (how generous of him), but meanhwile, the senior ranks of the Russian Army are better placed to determine facts on the ground....

'panic' among Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, claim Russian officers' families have fled

Families of senior officers in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet have left Crimea in recent weeks, the Ukrainian partisan group Atesh reported on April 20. The group claimed that an internal directive was issued by Russian authorities in early April, mandating heightened security measures at military installations across Crimea. This reportedly includes increased surveillance, covert patrols conducted by reservists in civilian clothing, and efforts to conceal military hardware. Additionally, all shore leave for Russian personnel stationed on the peninsula has reportedly been suspended. "There is currently panic in the units of the Russian Black Sea Fleet," the group said in a post on Telegram.

Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, suggested on April 13 that the potential delivery of long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine could enable strikes on high-value Russian military targets in occupied Crimea — including the strategically vital Kerch Bridge that links the peninsula to mainland Russia.

Add in water shortages, with some reservoirs now down to 35% of capacity as we head into the summer months. The canal from the Dnipr that formerly moved water to Crimea and southern Kherson has been shut down since the dam across the Dnipr was blown by the Russians and now only rainwater contributes to Crimea's water supply. Its not enough and consequently, the reservoirs have been emptying out.

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-officers-families-flee-crimea-ukrainian-partisan-group-claims/

 

[HisArpy]

I heard recently that 40% of Ukraine's arms manufacturing is now done by Ukraine. And that what they're making is very effective.

Russia needs to come to the bargaining table with a viable peace offer that they'll guarantee to stick to, or Ukraine is going to push the fighting to Putin's doorstep. At which point Russia will use nukes. A use which will push the rest of the world to also use nukes.

And we the people of the planet will suffer for centuries because of the petty machinations and egos of small people with false dreams of wielding ultimate power.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

I heard recently that 40% of Ukraine's arms manufacturing is now done by Ukraine. And that what they're making is very effective.

Russia needs to come to the bargaining table with a viable peace offer that they'll guarantee to stick to, or Ukraine is going to push the fighting to Putin's doorstep. At which point Russia will use nukes. A use which will push the rest of the world to also use nukes.

And we the people of the planet will suffer for centuries because of the petty machinations and egos of small people with false dreams of wielding ultimate power.

Then maybe Trump should be supporting Ukraine instead of Russia. 4 or 5 more months of weapons to Ukraine and Russia will break and Ukraine doesn't need to go to Moscow to get Putin. His own people will do it for Ukraine.

 

[HisArpy]

Then maybe Trump should be supporting Ukraine instead of Russia. 4 or 5 more months of weapons to Ukraine and Russia will break and Ukraine doesn't need to go to Moscow to get Putin. His own people will do it for Ukraine.

Trump isn't "supporting Russia." He wants the fighting and killing to stop, has said so, and is working to get both Russia and Ukraine to the peace table for an agreement.

I think that's an admirable thing because the other alternative (which you seem to support in your anti-Trump hatred) is potential nuclear annihilation of everything on the planet.

But small minded people like you are easily led by those with personal power agendas so it's to be expected that you want the war to continue and potentially expand outside of Ukraine.

 

[ll74]

Lol

 

[Politruk]

Trump isn't "supporting Russia." He wants the fighting and killing to stop

Only on Putin's terms. And no peace can be built on a settlement that lets Russia keep the territory it has grabbed.

 

[Hel_Books]

Trump isn't "supporting Russia." He wants the fighting and killing to stop, has said so, and is working to get both Russia and Ukraine to the peace table for an agreement.

I think that's an admirable thing because the other alternative (which you seem to support in your anti-Trump hatred) is potential nuclear annihilation of everything on the planet.

But small minded people like you are easily led by those with personal power agendas so it's to be expected that you want the war to continue and potentially expand outside of Ukraine.

How is helping the Ukraine risking "nuclear annihilation"?

Are you saying everyone (including the nuclear-armed USA) should be frightened of Vladimir Putin and Russia because he has nukes? What would your sainted Ronald Reagan said about that?

And what about China? Going to give up and give in because China has nukes too?

MAGA = Pussy

 

[Politruk]

But small minded people like you are easily led by those with personal power agendas so it's to be expected that you want the war to continue and potentially expand outside of Ukraine.

How? It has already expanded to Russia -- it will not expand to Poland.

 

[Lazaran]

Then maybe Trump should be supporting Ukraine instead of Russia. 4 or 5 more months of weapons to Ukraine and Russia will break and Ukraine doesn't need to go to Moscow to get Putin. His own people will do it for Ukraine.

That ^ was President Biden’s strategy: Break Russia SLOWLY, through military and economic attrition, simply by mounting a justified coalition supported defense of Ukraine that eventually (as a measured response to Putin’s escalations) allowed for long range / cross-border strikes on Russian infrastructure, and on Russian military staging sites preparing to attack Ukraine,etc.

By breaking Russia SLOWLY, it reduced the chances of a nuclear escalation AND gave Putin NUMEROUS opportunities to pick an off-ramp.

It WAS working (and still is for the most part), but NOW DonOld is doing everything he can to SABOTAGE the success of the allied coalition.

Sound familiar???







We. Told. Them. So.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

Trump isn't "supporting Russia."

lmfao, sure he's not,and the moon is made of cheese.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Trump isn't "supporting Russia." He wants the fighting and killing to stop, has said so, and is working to get both Russia and Ukraine to the peace table for an agreement.

Trump has been blatantly supportimg Russia and handicapping Ukraine - and is version of the peace table is to conceded everything Putin demands before any negotiations start and pressure Ukraine into capitualatng to Russia's demands.

Trump is going to force Ukraine into a refusal to capitulate and use this to blame Zelensky for "not wanting peace" and then lift sanctions on Russia while washing his hands of Ukraine, reneging on agreements the US signed and sparking nuclear prliferation bith in Europe and elsewhere. Ukraine will go on to win the war without him, and if Putin does use nukes, Russia can expect to be dirty-bombed almost immediately in retaliation. Something Ukrainan nuclear engineers could put together in days. It's more likely that if Putin tries to go nuclear he will be removed by hos own people.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Good news on reducing Europan reliance on US defence production

 

[HisArpy]

Trump has been blatantly supportimg Russia and handicapping Ukraine - and is version of the peace table is to conceded everything Putin demands before any negotiations start and pressure Ukraine into capitualatng to Russia's demands.

This is what the media wants you to believe.

Trump is going to force Ukraine into a refusal to capitulate and use this to blame Zelensky for "not wanting peace" and then lift sanctions on Russia while washing his hands of Ukraine, reneging on agreements the US signed and sparking nuclear prliferation bith in Europe and elsewhere. Ukraine will go on to win the war without him,

This also doesn't track what's been happening. Trump has gotten Zelenski to agree to several peace proposal items. Putin is the one who isn't playing along so Trump added more oil sanctions.

It's tough to say that Trump imposing additional sanctions means he's soft on Russia.

and if Putin does use nukes, Russia can expect to be dirty-bombed almost immediately in retaliation. Something Ukrainan nuclear engineers could put together in days. It's more likely that if Putin tries to go nuclear he will be removed by hos own people.

Yup, WWIII right on cue. That's the thing Trump is trying to avoid because when the time comes and Russia uses nukes, not all of them will be pointed at Ukraine.

And don't even believe that the Russia people will remove Putin. They won't because they can't. Russia has ensured that will never happen.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ll74]

This is what the media wants you to believe.



This also doesn't track what's been happening. Trump has gotten Zelenski to agree to several peace proposal items. Putin is the one who isn't playing along so Trump added more oil sanctions.

It's tough to say that Trump imposing additional sanctions means he's soft on Russia.




Yup, WWIII right on cue. That's the thing Trump is trying to avoid because when the time comes and Russia uses nukes, not all of them will be pointed at Ukraine.

And don't even believe that the Russia people will remove Putin. They won't because they can't. Russia has ensured that will never happen.

Trump supports Russia.
He wants Putin to see him as strong and that's his foreign policy....make autocratic dictators see him with the big boy pants.

No media spin changes what is publicly visible.

 

[Fuzzy1975]

This is what the media wants you to believe.

This is not the way you make peace...*chuckles*

 

[HisArpy]

This is not the way you make peace...*chuckles*

Making peace isn't nearly the same as when you roll over like a dog asking for tummy rubs.

 

[Lazaran]

Making peace isn't nearly the same as when you roll over like a dog asking for tummy rubs.

Derpy should stick to being wrong about the law.

That is Derpy’s specialty.



Also:

We. Told. Them. So.