So it was an accident???
And no casualties???
Not trying to be overly skeptical of Russian honesty and transparency, but…
For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine
- Thread starter Rightguide
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So it was an accident???
And no casualties???
Not trying to be overly skeptical of Russian honesty and transparency, but…
ChloeTzang
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It's located just a short distance from Moscow, protected by the most heavily concentrated air defense system in the entire russian federation. At the same time, russia did not report any threats of attacks from Ukrainian UAVs or missiles and there were no other reports of air defences in action or of drones attacking. as per the article, either different means were used, or the russian air defense system failed to intercept the attack.
So either the Ukrainians got a surprise hit in that nothing picked up, it was a sabotage type op, or it was a Russian work accident - the work accident could be a real possibility. A lot of their logistics workers were drafted to the front back in 2023 so if they were replaced and the replacements lacked the sklls needed....
Either way, great hit! That's a lot of ammo kickimg off and apparently the depot is completely destroyed. The 51st GRAU arsenal had 45 storage facilities and 30 ammunition storage sites. The design capacity is up to 264,000 tons of various ammunition. Like any other GRAU arsenal, it is not narrowly specialized and is designed to store a full range of munitions, from artillery shells and ATGMs to anti-aircraft and ballistic missiles, and tactical missile systems. At the same time, the arsenal is designed not only for storage but also for the maintenance of munitions.
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_..._target_and_what_was_hidden_inside-14272.html
https://unn.ua/en/news/burned-almos...d-off-the-enemys-51st-arsenal-near-moscow-ccd
ChloeTzang
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Logistics and artlllery - without guns and supplies, an Army is dead....Putin is racing against the clock of the Russian Army's demise and Trump's not going to be able to help him
ChloeTzang
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The Fronts: A Summary
Northern Theater
The situation across the north this past week has been remarkably static at the operational level, both on the Sumy and Kharkiv fronts. Intense fighting has continued along the Sumy border, the Russians struggling to push Ukrainian troops from their footholds on the ruscist side and muster the gumption needed to create a buffer zone. Ukraine continues to apply pressure in the Belgorod foothold, actively fighting for the two small towns taken a few weeks back, Demidovka and Popovka. Ukrainian troops are taking advantage of some dense woods to present a constant threat to the southern flank of the orc grouping trying to push into Sumy.
Both sides appear to be slowly moving forces away from this front, Moscow’s to other fronts and Ukraine’s into the reserves. Overall, Ukraine’s pullback from Kursk has encouraged Moscow to waste effort trying to take advantage of a seeming opportunity that was always a trap. Ukraine should have half a dozen brigades resting up ahead of summer, and a good portion of those still technically assigned to cover Sumy should be getting at least partial rest.
Kharkiv is the same as ever, never quiet but neither side really pushing hard. The proximity of large urban areas, Kharkiv and Belgorod, should make it easier for Ukraine or the orcs to rapidly reinforce making offensive operations unwise. I should probably at least mention the other portion of the Northern Theater which scarcely makes the news: Chernihiv, northeast of Kyiv. It’s been almost completely static for almost three years now, ever since the orcs wisely ran away - smartest thing they’ve done in Ukraine yet. Somewhere in this area could prove an attractive place to launch another substantial cross-border operation, under the right circumstances. At present, the more orc forces are spread out, the better, as a small group of Ukrainians can hold off better than three times their number without loss, if properly supported.
In an ideal world, sensible mid-level commanders on the Russian side would realize that their best chance of keeping themselves and their soldiers alive involves making a side deal with their Ukrainian counterparts. Sooner or later the Russian machine will demand convenient scapegoats for years of humiliating battlefield failures. Surrendering their positions and soldiers to a sudden offensive led by Free Russian troops backed by Ukraine really is their best hope.
Eastern Theater
Moving clockwise around the fronts, the northern edge of the Eastern Theater around Kupiansk remains tense but stable this week, to the point that I have to wonder whether the area was hit by some wet weather. But it could just be that the Russians are busy trying to ferry heavy equipment across the Oskil ahead of their next attempt to expand the bridgeheads on the western bank.
The Oskil and stretch of the Siverskyi Donets near its confluence form a natural barrier that the Russians would very much like to keep Ukrainian forces behind. The Kupiansk, Borova, and ***** fronts can all be credibly describes as battles for bridgeheads. Ukraine’s control of territory east of the Oskil represents a persistent threat to Muscovite occupation of Luhansk district. For Ukraine’s defenders, Moscow’s attempts to get across the Oskil pose a similar threat to Kharkiv and the northern approaches to free urban Donbas. This past week the Borova front is the only one that shifted at all, Russian troops continuing to slowly expand their bridgehead over the Zherebets. Taking advantage of a dam holding back a reservoir complex, Russian troops have established a supply line sufficient to grow the foothold bit by bit along a ridge over the past few weeks. They are now close to taking Nove, the first town offering shelter to Russians massing for future assaults.
In the near future, this bridgehead will pose a threat to the Ukrainian forces covering Borova, including Third Assault Corps. An obvious Russian strategy is to keep pushing west until Ukrainian troops south towards ***** are cut off from the ones defending Borova. Moscow is more or less trying to use bridgeheads to wedge out other bridgeheads. In a parallel effort further south, Moscow’s drive towards Siversk is also picking up pace, 81st Airmobile was finally forced out of the massive quarry at Bilohorivka, just south of the Siverskyi Donets, as well as most of the town itself, after two years. This brigade recently took delivery of a shipment of Stryker wheeled armored personnel carriers, a US version of the venerable Canadian LAV line that has proven itself speedy, reliable, and well protected for its class. Any counterattacks they launch will be more effective.
Siversk itself is less a prize than the ability to shove Ukrainian troops out of the vast Serebryanskyy forest plantation area along the Siverskyi Donets. This area has long hosted a stubborn Ukrainian defense that always threatens to push towards the important town of Kreminna, the logistics base of the orc troops pushing towards the Oskil over the Zherebets. The apparent inability of the Russians to push down the highway leading from occupied Bakhmut straight to the heart of free urban Donbas down the E-40 highway is probably tied to control of these forests. As a consequence, any effort to outflank Ukraine’s defenders here by reaching Siversk has to be taken seriously. Fortunately Bilohorivka was not a particularly vital spot to hold in and of itself - a long ridge to the west sits above a paved road running through the valley of the Siverskyi Donets, with the north bank of the river covered in dense, Ukrainian-controlled forests. The 81st and 4th Offensive Guard in the hills with 53rd Mechanized plus a Border Guard detachment in the forests ought to shred the Russians. This breed appears to be mostly press-ganged from the occupied territories, so with any luck they’ll prove as prone to surrender as the two Chinese mercenaries captured fighting alongside them.
The greater danger to Siversk is probably to the south, where the orcs are already directly assaulting the high ground held by Ukraine’s 10th Mountain Assault and 54th Mechanized Brigades. Applying tactics used on other fronts, ruscist troops might try to steamroll their way north between Zvanivka and Vyimka. This would unseat Ukrainian defenses further north, risking the enemy getting close to Siversk from two angles and subsequently isolating the Ukrainian troops in the forests to the north. If I were Ukraine, I’d be more worried about an all-out Russian steamroller aimed at Sloviansk than losing Pokrovsk at this point. Much as Volnovakha is Putin’s operational jugular, so is Sloviansk Ukraine’s. So I have to hope that a lot of traps have been prepared between Siversk and Kostyantynivka. The Kostyantynivka front this past week saw most Russian effort focusing on the southern flank, Muscovite forces trying to push Ukraine back from the outskirts of Toretsk. Chasiv Yar saw some fighting, as usual, but no movement of the lines.
It seems the immediate Russian objective is to start clearing the area south of the Kleban-Bykske reservoir by taking the suburbs just west of Toretsk. That will divide Ukrainian troops covering the ridges north of Toretsk that have so far thwarted orc attempts to break through Chasiv Yar. Further elimination of the Ukrainian positions west of Toretsk to the Bychok river will allow the Russians to bridge it, coming at Kostyantynivka from the south and threatening Pokrovsk from the north.
On the Pokrovsk front, what might have become a major crisis was averted by the swift action of 14th Offensive Guard along with 117th Heavy Mechanized and 38th Marines. Here a couple of rather massive Russian columns tried to strike across the Kazenyi Torets in what had to be a bid to throw Ukrainian troops behind the T-0504 highway linking Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. Accomplishing this would have finally given the enemy a second jaw around Pokrovsk as well as open the door to rapidly shoving Ukrainian troops away from the area west of Toretsk. But raw mass at high speed isn’t in and of itself sufficient to breach a properly organized defense backed by drones and artillery. Inability to dominate the battlefield in enough domains to generate an asymmetric advantage sufficient to generate a combat power overmatch doomed the effort from the start. Several hundred lives and dozens of increasingly scarce vehicles were thrown away for no gain. And at the same time that Moscow was failing east of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian counterattacks continue to chip away at the western jaw of the march on the town. While Ukraine’s progress here looks slow, it has to be kept in mind that the Russians have been sending a constant flood of reinforcements to this front in a bid to regain momentum. If the rate slackens, Ukraine’s advance will pick up speed - until now the objective is to keep draining enemy combat power.
Northern Theater
The situation across the north this past week has been remarkably static at the operational level, both on the Sumy and Kharkiv fronts. Intense fighting has continued along the Sumy border, the Russians struggling to push Ukrainian troops from their footholds on the ruscist side and muster the gumption needed to create a buffer zone. Ukraine continues to apply pressure in the Belgorod foothold, actively fighting for the two small towns taken a few weeks back, Demidovka and Popovka. Ukrainian troops are taking advantage of some dense woods to present a constant threat to the southern flank of the orc grouping trying to push into Sumy.
Both sides appear to be slowly moving forces away from this front, Moscow’s to other fronts and Ukraine’s into the reserves. Overall, Ukraine’s pullback from Kursk has encouraged Moscow to waste effort trying to take advantage of a seeming opportunity that was always a trap. Ukraine should have half a dozen brigades resting up ahead of summer, and a good portion of those still technically assigned to cover Sumy should be getting at least partial rest.
Kharkiv is the same as ever, never quiet but neither side really pushing hard. The proximity of large urban areas, Kharkiv and Belgorod, should make it easier for Ukraine or the orcs to rapidly reinforce making offensive operations unwise. I should probably at least mention the other portion of the Northern Theater which scarcely makes the news: Chernihiv, northeast of Kyiv. It’s been almost completely static for almost three years now, ever since the orcs wisely ran away - smartest thing they’ve done in Ukraine yet. Somewhere in this area could prove an attractive place to launch another substantial cross-border operation, under the right circumstances. At present, the more orc forces are spread out, the better, as a small group of Ukrainians can hold off better than three times their number without loss, if properly supported.
In an ideal world, sensible mid-level commanders on the Russian side would realize that their best chance of keeping themselves and their soldiers alive involves making a side deal with their Ukrainian counterparts. Sooner or later the Russian machine will demand convenient scapegoats for years of humiliating battlefield failures. Surrendering their positions and soldiers to a sudden offensive led by Free Russian troops backed by Ukraine really is their best hope.
Eastern Theater
Moving clockwise around the fronts, the northern edge of the Eastern Theater around Kupiansk remains tense but stable this week, to the point that I have to wonder whether the area was hit by some wet weather. But it could just be that the Russians are busy trying to ferry heavy equipment across the Oskil ahead of their next attempt to expand the bridgeheads on the western bank.
The Oskil and stretch of the Siverskyi Donets near its confluence form a natural barrier that the Russians would very much like to keep Ukrainian forces behind. The Kupiansk, Borova, and ***** fronts can all be credibly describes as battles for bridgeheads. Ukraine’s control of territory east of the Oskil represents a persistent threat to Muscovite occupation of Luhansk district. For Ukraine’s defenders, Moscow’s attempts to get across the Oskil pose a similar threat to Kharkiv and the northern approaches to free urban Donbas. This past week the Borova front is the only one that shifted at all, Russian troops continuing to slowly expand their bridgehead over the Zherebets. Taking advantage of a dam holding back a reservoir complex, Russian troops have established a supply line sufficient to grow the foothold bit by bit along a ridge over the past few weeks. They are now close to taking Nove, the first town offering shelter to Russians massing for future assaults.
In the near future, this bridgehead will pose a threat to the Ukrainian forces covering Borova, including Third Assault Corps. An obvious Russian strategy is to keep pushing west until Ukrainian troops south towards ***** are cut off from the ones defending Borova. Moscow is more or less trying to use bridgeheads to wedge out other bridgeheads. In a parallel effort further south, Moscow’s drive towards Siversk is also picking up pace, 81st Airmobile was finally forced out of the massive quarry at Bilohorivka, just south of the Siverskyi Donets, as well as most of the town itself, after two years. This brigade recently took delivery of a shipment of Stryker wheeled armored personnel carriers, a US version of the venerable Canadian LAV line that has proven itself speedy, reliable, and well protected for its class. Any counterattacks they launch will be more effective.
Siversk itself is less a prize than the ability to shove Ukrainian troops out of the vast Serebryanskyy forest plantation area along the Siverskyi Donets. This area has long hosted a stubborn Ukrainian defense that always threatens to push towards the important town of Kreminna, the logistics base of the orc troops pushing towards the Oskil over the Zherebets. The apparent inability of the Russians to push down the highway leading from occupied Bakhmut straight to the heart of free urban Donbas down the E-40 highway is probably tied to control of these forests. As a consequence, any effort to outflank Ukraine’s defenders here by reaching Siversk has to be taken seriously. Fortunately Bilohorivka was not a particularly vital spot to hold in and of itself - a long ridge to the west sits above a paved road running through the valley of the Siverskyi Donets, with the north bank of the river covered in dense, Ukrainian-controlled forests. The 81st and 4th Offensive Guard in the hills with 53rd Mechanized plus a Border Guard detachment in the forests ought to shred the Russians. This breed appears to be mostly press-ganged from the occupied territories, so with any luck they’ll prove as prone to surrender as the two Chinese mercenaries captured fighting alongside them.
The greater danger to Siversk is probably to the south, where the orcs are already directly assaulting the high ground held by Ukraine’s 10th Mountain Assault and 54th Mechanized Brigades. Applying tactics used on other fronts, ruscist troops might try to steamroll their way north between Zvanivka and Vyimka. This would unseat Ukrainian defenses further north, risking the enemy getting close to Siversk from two angles and subsequently isolating the Ukrainian troops in the forests to the north. If I were Ukraine, I’d be more worried about an all-out Russian steamroller aimed at Sloviansk than losing Pokrovsk at this point. Much as Volnovakha is Putin’s operational jugular, so is Sloviansk Ukraine’s. So I have to hope that a lot of traps have been prepared between Siversk and Kostyantynivka. The Kostyantynivka front this past week saw most Russian effort focusing on the southern flank, Muscovite forces trying to push Ukraine back from the outskirts of Toretsk. Chasiv Yar saw some fighting, as usual, but no movement of the lines.
It seems the immediate Russian objective is to start clearing the area south of the Kleban-Bykske reservoir by taking the suburbs just west of Toretsk. That will divide Ukrainian troops covering the ridges north of Toretsk that have so far thwarted orc attempts to break through Chasiv Yar. Further elimination of the Ukrainian positions west of Toretsk to the Bychok river will allow the Russians to bridge it, coming at Kostyantynivka from the south and threatening Pokrovsk from the north.
On the Pokrovsk front, what might have become a major crisis was averted by the swift action of 14th Offensive Guard along with 117th Heavy Mechanized and 38th Marines. Here a couple of rather massive Russian columns tried to strike across the Kazenyi Torets in what had to be a bid to throw Ukrainian troops behind the T-0504 highway linking Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. Accomplishing this would have finally given the enemy a second jaw around Pokrovsk as well as open the door to rapidly shoving Ukrainian troops away from the area west of Toretsk. But raw mass at high speed isn’t in and of itself sufficient to breach a properly organized defense backed by drones and artillery. Inability to dominate the battlefield in enough domains to generate an asymmetric advantage sufficient to generate a combat power overmatch doomed the effort from the start. Several hundred lives and dozens of increasingly scarce vehicles were thrown away for no gain. And at the same time that Moscow was failing east of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian counterattacks continue to chip away at the western jaw of the march on the town. While Ukraine’s progress here looks slow, it has to be kept in mind that the Russians have been sending a constant flood of reinforcements to this front in a bid to regain momentum. If the rate slackens, Ukraine’s advance will pick up speed - until now the objective is to keep draining enemy combat power.
ChloeTzang
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Southwest of Pokrovsk, the South Donbas area is increasingly evolving into exactly what Ukraine’s military named it weeks ago: the Novopavlivka front. Here creeping progress has been observed, the Russians exploiting the capture of Rozlyv to increase pressure on Ukrainian troops fighting for Kostyantynopil. The thrust of Moscow’s offensive efforts in this area all point to the same objective: reach the confluence of the Mokri Yali and Solana rivers with the Vovcha. A secondary goal is probably to push the zone of control a bit further west, to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Dnipro districts, but it is subordinate to the desire to get across the Solona river in force to resurrect the drive on Pokrovsk. Still, broader plans aside, step one is to move the fight west wherever possible, taking villages that can shelter troops and supplies to sustain the advance across this flat open country. Bahatyr and Oleksiivka are the next towns in line once the Ulakli-Andriivka-Kostyantynopil triangle is lost. They might hold, considering the steady weakening of the enemy advance.
Southern Theater
Fighting has continued to escalate on the Orikhiv front, south of Zaporizhzhia, with the Russians reportedly unleashing one of their mass assaults here with little effect. Kherson continues to witness overt strikes against civilians, but no movement on the ground. The relative concentration of forces is worth pointing out. Moscow is forced to keep tens of thousands of troops it could absolutely use elsewhere covering this vulnerable extended claw of the empire. And almost all their supplies pass through Volnovakha or over the Kerch Strait bridge.
I guess it makes perfect sense that a member of Scholz’ outgoing government made a weird comment about some people having an erotic fascination with weapons systems. Yeah, buddy, in the same way a worker cares about their tools. Give Ukraine a few dozen Taurus missiles and enough armored vehicles, and the job of winning the war can be done. Aren’t you Germans supposed to be the ones who understand engineering? Country has the best thinkers but worst politicians, I swear.
Air Domain
In more encouraging news, it appears that someone in NATO was thinking along similar lines as myself last week, in the wake of the orc slaughter of dozens of people with a cluster warhead in Sumy. I proposed an Anglo-French deployment to Ukraine consisting of combat aircraft for air defense patrols, soldiers to engage in training, and air defenses to protect the bases. One might say that London and Paris took the first step last week, conducting a highly provocative mission off Crimea that Stefan Korshak adroitly covered in the Kyiv Post. Anyway, over the Black Sea last week a group of NATO reconnaissance aircraft were joined by Typhoon fighters launched from British bases and Rafales from France’s carrier Charles de Gaulle, currently happily back in the Mediterranean Sea after joining exercises in the Pacific. It was a complex operation requiring a lot of aerial refueling, so US forces supporting NATO were involved, but the Europeans ran the risky part of the op: what you might call a bump of Crimea’s air defenses.
Without coming within effective SAM range or leaving international waters, NATO combat jets - the Rafales theoretically capable of delivering nukes - still posed enough of a technical threat that Moscow almost had to respond by activating defense systems to monitor them. This will have provided NATO - and Ukraine - a golden opportunity to map out assets are presently in Crimea. All the Ukrainians had to do was sit back and hoover up electronic intelligence. Aside from the obvious military benefit of being able to monitor the enemy’s transmissions and deployment patterns, there’s an unmistakable diplomatic message: two nuclear powers can and will deploy nuclear-capable jets from sovereign bases to the Black Sea in a few hours. Ukraine is part of Europe, and it is defended.
As a response to the atrocity in Sumy, this Anglo-French move fell well short of what’s deserved. However, it’s a beginning - and I’ll grant that it’s best to proceed slowly and deliberately when technically flirting with a situation that could, if it went really wrong, escalate into open war. That is what makes moves like this credible, unlike stunts pulled by the US and UK in years past. Sorry Boris Johnson, but a single frigate passing close to Sevastopol is as futile as the US pushing ships through the Taiwan strait. As has been true for years, both Paris and London could dispatch a squadron of combat jets and all the assets necessary to keep them safe on the ground to Ukraine in a matter of weeks, the first assets arriving in days. This has always been the correct and necessary answer to Moscow’s aggression. Just as the US can move aircraft between coasts with relative ease, so can Europe, thanks to NATO. In the event of an actual war, Moscow’s naval assets not within a bastion stretching a hundred kilometers or so from its Arctic and Pacific coasts are all dead in a matter of days to weeks. Its air power is easily matched by NATOs, especially when half or more of it is perpetually forced to sustain operations in Ukraine.
The only thing stopping Ukraine’s partners from closing the skies over the western half of the country at this point is pure lack of vision and will. Some European leaders do have it - predominantly women, ironically. Kaja Kallas of Estonia, Mette Fredericksen of Denmark, and Sanna Marin of Finland, while she was still in office, have all been right up there with German-Belgian Ursula von der Leyen, quoted below, in telling the simple truth about where the world is right now.
On the Ukrainian side of matters, there have been no further Viper losses, though airstrikes on all fronts have continued. Moscow has reportedly started having to use Su-35 fighter jets in an AWACS role because of a shortage of A-50s, partly courtesy of Ukraine. And Putin’s resources keep on draining away.
Southern Theater
Fighting has continued to escalate on the Orikhiv front, south of Zaporizhzhia, with the Russians reportedly unleashing one of their mass assaults here with little effect. Kherson continues to witness overt strikes against civilians, but no movement on the ground. The relative concentration of forces is worth pointing out. Moscow is forced to keep tens of thousands of troops it could absolutely use elsewhere covering this vulnerable extended claw of the empire. And almost all their supplies pass through Volnovakha or over the Kerch Strait bridge.
I guess it makes perfect sense that a member of Scholz’ outgoing government made a weird comment about some people having an erotic fascination with weapons systems. Yeah, buddy, in the same way a worker cares about their tools. Give Ukraine a few dozen Taurus missiles and enough armored vehicles, and the job of winning the war can be done. Aren’t you Germans supposed to be the ones who understand engineering? Country has the best thinkers but worst politicians, I swear.
Air Domain
In more encouraging news, it appears that someone in NATO was thinking along similar lines as myself last week, in the wake of the orc slaughter of dozens of people with a cluster warhead in Sumy. I proposed an Anglo-French deployment to Ukraine consisting of combat aircraft for air defense patrols, soldiers to engage in training, and air defenses to protect the bases. One might say that London and Paris took the first step last week, conducting a highly provocative mission off Crimea that Stefan Korshak adroitly covered in the Kyiv Post. Anyway, over the Black Sea last week a group of NATO reconnaissance aircraft were joined by Typhoon fighters launched from British bases and Rafales from France’s carrier Charles de Gaulle, currently happily back in the Mediterranean Sea after joining exercises in the Pacific. It was a complex operation requiring a lot of aerial refueling, so US forces supporting NATO were involved, but the Europeans ran the risky part of the op: what you might call a bump of Crimea’s air defenses.
Without coming within effective SAM range or leaving international waters, NATO combat jets - the Rafales theoretically capable of delivering nukes - still posed enough of a technical threat that Moscow almost had to respond by activating defense systems to monitor them. This will have provided NATO - and Ukraine - a golden opportunity to map out assets are presently in Crimea. All the Ukrainians had to do was sit back and hoover up electronic intelligence. Aside from the obvious military benefit of being able to monitor the enemy’s transmissions and deployment patterns, there’s an unmistakable diplomatic message: two nuclear powers can and will deploy nuclear-capable jets from sovereign bases to the Black Sea in a few hours. Ukraine is part of Europe, and it is defended.
As a response to the atrocity in Sumy, this Anglo-French move fell well short of what’s deserved. However, it’s a beginning - and I’ll grant that it’s best to proceed slowly and deliberately when technically flirting with a situation that could, if it went really wrong, escalate into open war. That is what makes moves like this credible, unlike stunts pulled by the US and UK in years past. Sorry Boris Johnson, but a single frigate passing close to Sevastopol is as futile as the US pushing ships through the Taiwan strait. As has been true for years, both Paris and London could dispatch a squadron of combat jets and all the assets necessary to keep them safe on the ground to Ukraine in a matter of weeks, the first assets arriving in days. This has always been the correct and necessary answer to Moscow’s aggression. Just as the US can move aircraft between coasts with relative ease, so can Europe, thanks to NATO. In the event of an actual war, Moscow’s naval assets not within a bastion stretching a hundred kilometers or so from its Arctic and Pacific coasts are all dead in a matter of days to weeks. Its air power is easily matched by NATOs, especially when half or more of it is perpetually forced to sustain operations in Ukraine.
The only thing stopping Ukraine’s partners from closing the skies over the western half of the country at this point is pure lack of vision and will. Some European leaders do have it - predominantly women, ironically. Kaja Kallas of Estonia, Mette Fredericksen of Denmark, and Sanna Marin of Finland, while she was still in office, have all been right up there with German-Belgian Ursula von der Leyen, quoted below, in telling the simple truth about where the world is right now.
On the Ukrainian side of matters, there have been no further Viper losses, though airstrikes on all fronts have continued. Moscow has reportedly started having to use Su-35 fighter jets in an AWACS role because of a shortage of A-50s, partly courtesy of Ukraine. And Putin’s resources keep on draining away.
ChloeTzang
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Strike Campaigns
Ukraine took revenge for the assault on civilians in Sumy by bombarding military production sites in Kursk with around a hundred drones, then hitting the home bases of the missile units responsible for launching the attack with drones despite these being hundreds of kilometers inside Muscovite territory. One base was struck on two consecutive nights despite being located farther from Ukraine than Moscow, with russian soldiers and civilians filming and posting the strikes in real time. If you were looking for a sign about the efficacy of ruscist air defenses, there you go.
Ukrainian leaders are warning of mass enemy strikes soon, which seems as likely as not. Kharkiv was hit by another missile designed to maximize civilian casualties on the ground not long before the fake truce was announced. It’s worth noting that Moscow’s missiles could be used to try and destroy a portion of Ukraine’s Viper fleet, no matter how few they’d get. Or they could be used in large numbers to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses in an area, hitting as many important targets as possible in a short period of time. Instead, the Russians have lately been firing them in small numbers at civilian targets lacking Patriot protection. A punishment strategy, pure and simple - that Dostoevsky again. The Easter truce did have an impact on the strike campaign, both sides noticeably limiting their fire in this one area. Ukraine has wisely proposed extending this aspect of the ceasefire indefinitely - Putin is unlikely to agree, for the same reason that no matter what Ukraine or even the US offers, he’s always got another condition. Every move he makes is just another bid to gain more control.
Unfortunately for Putin, the strike campaign is a numbers game, now. Moscow is highly unlikely to be able to build air defenses faster than Ukraine can churn out strike drones and small cruise missiles sufficient to find gaps and hit critical targets. Decentralizing Moscow’s war machine, already inefficient and draining the broader economy dry, is not likely to prove possible, as this would undermine profit-taking opportunities for oligarchs. The same logic drives arms companies in the USA, but let’s not go there just now…Overall, any day Ukraine isn’t shooting stuff in Russia is another it’s building up stockpiles. The same is true for the Russians, but when losing a race, time is not on your side.
Naval Matters
The Black Sea has been fairly quiet recently, though whether this is a true ceasefire or just a function of weather or luck is tough to assess. If there’s a maritime front that deserves more attention right now, it’s out in the Pacific, where North Korean shipments of artillery and missiles keep passing over the Sea of Japan. Recent estimates by various think tanks around the world have it that North Korean ammunition comprises half of what the orcs shoot. If Moscow didn’t have access to it the front would have crumbled already. Reliance on North Korea is a serious liability for Moscow. How long North Korean warehouses and factories can sustain demand is unknown, but the fact that Moscow ships the bulk of its supplies by sea using a small number of vessels means that any Ukrainian or allied operation that could manage to deploy drones in the Sea of Japan would stand to wreak havoc on vital enemy supplies. It should be possible to build a semi-submersible drone with solar arrays that could substantially boost its range, acting as a smart mine.
It doesn’t take much explosive charge to put a hole in a cargo ship that would leave a lot of North Korean explosives on the bottom of the Sea of Japan - and trigger a massive, expensive security effort by Moscow. Such an operation ought to be well within the means of a fair few wealthy Ukrainians or allies, even if Budanov’s HUR doesn’t want to get involved to ensure plausible deniability. Many of the earliest aircraft carriers as well as many later small types were converted merchant ships - the same could soon be true of drone carriers.
Though if the UK or France would be willing to lend one of their nuclear attack submarines, I’m still not convinced that anyone could ever prove what happened if a couple ships disappeared off the North Korean coast. And what’s North Korea going to do about it? Complain to the UN?
Guess who holds two vetoes on the Security Council? London and Paris. I don’t like the rules. But I didn’t make them. In the circles that matter, I’m far too young/incorrectly educated for my opinion to count.
Leadership & Personnel
Ukraine is officially publishing information about more of its new corps, which should mean that the actual process of reformation is well advanced. Interestingly, two of the first corps that have been announced officially are both from the National Guard. The 12th Offensive Brigade heads one - 1st “Azov” Corps, and 13th OG the other, 2nd “Khartia” Corps. Third Assault Brigade is still at the heart of Third Assault Corps, but this grouping’s full composition has not been confirmed. It makes the most sense geographically for 3AC to handle the Borova and ***** fronts, but if Ukraine needs ten brigades to hold the bridgehead, that will require a second corps to handle the defense of *****.
As far as the question of how rookie formations evolve into veterans goes, another fantastic piece published at History Does You compared the US 90th Infantry Division to Ukraine’s 155th Mechanized, which is now a respected formation after being subject to so much media scrutiny a few months aback. Not much I can add to such fine efforts - Ukraine’s military reboot is bearing fruit as it extends to more of the force. Between ongoing improvements in organization, rapidly increasing Ukrainian domestic arms production funded by European investment, and the stark degradation in Russian battlefield capabilities - among other factors - a major Ukrainian counteroffensive effort this summer remains in the forecast. The power curve is not trending in Moscow’s favor.
Ukraine took revenge for the assault on civilians in Sumy by bombarding military production sites in Kursk with around a hundred drones, then hitting the home bases of the missile units responsible for launching the attack with drones despite these being hundreds of kilometers inside Muscovite territory. One base was struck on two consecutive nights despite being located farther from Ukraine than Moscow, with russian soldiers and civilians filming and posting the strikes in real time. If you were looking for a sign about the efficacy of ruscist air defenses, there you go.
Ukrainian leaders are warning of mass enemy strikes soon, which seems as likely as not. Kharkiv was hit by another missile designed to maximize civilian casualties on the ground not long before the fake truce was announced. It’s worth noting that Moscow’s missiles could be used to try and destroy a portion of Ukraine’s Viper fleet, no matter how few they’d get. Or they could be used in large numbers to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses in an area, hitting as many important targets as possible in a short period of time. Instead, the Russians have lately been firing them in small numbers at civilian targets lacking Patriot protection. A punishment strategy, pure and simple - that Dostoevsky again. The Easter truce did have an impact on the strike campaign, both sides noticeably limiting their fire in this one area. Ukraine has wisely proposed extending this aspect of the ceasefire indefinitely - Putin is unlikely to agree, for the same reason that no matter what Ukraine or even the US offers, he’s always got another condition. Every move he makes is just another bid to gain more control.
Unfortunately for Putin, the strike campaign is a numbers game, now. Moscow is highly unlikely to be able to build air defenses faster than Ukraine can churn out strike drones and small cruise missiles sufficient to find gaps and hit critical targets. Decentralizing Moscow’s war machine, already inefficient and draining the broader economy dry, is not likely to prove possible, as this would undermine profit-taking opportunities for oligarchs. The same logic drives arms companies in the USA, but let’s not go there just now…Overall, any day Ukraine isn’t shooting stuff in Russia is another it’s building up stockpiles. The same is true for the Russians, but when losing a race, time is not on your side.
Naval Matters
The Black Sea has been fairly quiet recently, though whether this is a true ceasefire or just a function of weather or luck is tough to assess. If there’s a maritime front that deserves more attention right now, it’s out in the Pacific, where North Korean shipments of artillery and missiles keep passing over the Sea of Japan. Recent estimates by various think tanks around the world have it that North Korean ammunition comprises half of what the orcs shoot. If Moscow didn’t have access to it the front would have crumbled already. Reliance on North Korea is a serious liability for Moscow. How long North Korean warehouses and factories can sustain demand is unknown, but the fact that Moscow ships the bulk of its supplies by sea using a small number of vessels means that any Ukrainian or allied operation that could manage to deploy drones in the Sea of Japan would stand to wreak havoc on vital enemy supplies. It should be possible to build a semi-submersible drone with solar arrays that could substantially boost its range, acting as a smart mine.
It doesn’t take much explosive charge to put a hole in a cargo ship that would leave a lot of North Korean explosives on the bottom of the Sea of Japan - and trigger a massive, expensive security effort by Moscow. Such an operation ought to be well within the means of a fair few wealthy Ukrainians or allies, even if Budanov’s HUR doesn’t want to get involved to ensure plausible deniability. Many of the earliest aircraft carriers as well as many later small types were converted merchant ships - the same could soon be true of drone carriers.
Though if the UK or France would be willing to lend one of their nuclear attack submarines, I’m still not convinced that anyone could ever prove what happened if a couple ships disappeared off the North Korean coast. And what’s North Korea going to do about it? Complain to the UN?
Guess who holds two vetoes on the Security Council? London and Paris. I don’t like the rules. But I didn’t make them. In the circles that matter, I’m far too young/incorrectly educated for my opinion to count.
Leadership & Personnel
Ukraine is officially publishing information about more of its new corps, which should mean that the actual process of reformation is well advanced. Interestingly, two of the first corps that have been announced officially are both from the National Guard. The 12th Offensive Brigade heads one - 1st “Azov” Corps, and 13th OG the other, 2nd “Khartia” Corps. Third Assault Brigade is still at the heart of Third Assault Corps, but this grouping’s full composition has not been confirmed. It makes the most sense geographically for 3AC to handle the Borova and ***** fronts, but if Ukraine needs ten brigades to hold the bridgehead, that will require a second corps to handle the defense of *****.
As far as the question of how rookie formations evolve into veterans goes, another fantastic piece published at History Does You compared the US 90th Infantry Division to Ukraine’s 155th Mechanized, which is now a respected formation after being subject to so much media scrutiny a few months aback. Not much I can add to such fine efforts - Ukraine’s military reboot is bearing fruit as it extends to more of the force. Between ongoing improvements in organization, rapidly increasing Ukrainian domestic arms production funded by European investment, and the stark degradation in Russian battlefield capabilities - among other factors - a major Ukrainian counteroffensive effort this summer remains in the forecast. The power curve is not trending in Moscow’s favor.
RandyRebecca
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They haven't achieved it officially yet, and Russia has time, equipment and troop numbers on their side. Russia can continue to just slowly grind away, and wait until something snaps in either Washington DC or in Kiev. Trump shouting economic threats towards Putin makes no difference either, because most NATO countries have 100% or near 100% effective tariffs on Russia since 2022. Russia have reorientated their economy towards Asia, and towards war production.
Do you understand now? Do US politicians even understand any of this? Or do they think that because we're the USA that everyone bows down before our might as if it's forever the 1990s?
ll74
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If they have gained the land that they set out to gain, they achieved their goal
I understand that you are a Putin stooge like Reichy
RandyRebecca
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I see the truth, and have no time for the idiotic fantasies of so many warmongers.
ll74
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The truth is that Russia invaded Ukraine and continues their invasion. Ukraine continues to defend itself against the hostile invasion force.
Ukraine has offered reasonable cessation terms to Russia and Russia has rejected all terms.
Russia's actual reasoning for invasion was bullshit and their demands continue to be unrealistic and unreasonable.
ChloeTzang
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If this is true, it only confirms that Europe needs to disengage totally from the US defense industry and become self sufficient in all respects. Who knows what the US would do if a NATO ally were invaded? It would certainly cost the US trillions of dollars in sales to lose those decades old arms contracts but ..... you reap what you sow. The USA is no longer a reliable ally, and if indeed they have banned Taurus transfers to Ukraine, then it's likely the death knell of US arms sales to Europe.
The Russian asset in the White House is a threat to everyone.
The Russian asset in the White House is a threat to everyone.
Germany should just transfer them. What's Trump going to do? Given Trump's current "fuck the world" attitude, why should Germany respect anything that asshole says?
ChloeTzang
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Love this guys summaries
ChloeTzang
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No military targets - straight out terrorist attacks on civilians
HisArpy
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2 things to learn from this;
A. War actually knows no boundaries and isn't civilized regardless of the "rules" civilized people attempt to place on it.
B. Living in a large metro highrise means you're setting up shop dead center in someone's bullseye.
ChloeTzang
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And realistically, these attacks are actually beneficial to Ukraine. They're NOT hitting military targets and are therefore a waste. They unite Ukranians against Putin. They win support for Ukraine outside of Ukraine and Russia
HisArpy
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Putin doesn't care. He has N Korea and China on his side and they still have mega tons of weapons to send him while Europe and the US run out of weaponry and hardware.
Here's a question for you: What do you think will happen when the US military ammo stockpile is depleted to the point the US military can't engage for more than 72 hours? Do you think China will invade Taiwan? Do you think that China will simultaneously launch a take over of the South China Sea when they do attack Taiwan? Will NK attack SK and Japan at the same time?
Continuing the war in Ukraine is STUPID and puts the rest of the world at risk. Ukraine cannot win. It's logistically impossible and all that's happening is the waste of human life on a diversionary tactic designed to draw down the world's military so China can do whatever it wants without anyone being able to stop them.
ll74
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You do realize that we're sending them old shit, correct?
How would they run out? The U.S. and Europe have much better armaments industries than Russia, China or NK.
Designed by whom? China has no influence at all on these decisions.
Derpy "thinks" the U.S. weapons (and those are becoming less and less) being used in the primarily land based war in Ukraine are what would be used in the primarily air & sea based conflict that would ensue if China made a move on Taiwan.
Derpy also "thinks" that the same Russia that couldn’t subdue Afghanistan and has ALREADY suffered incalculable losses in human / military resources and national treasure in the Ukraine war is invincible, and that Russian victory is inevitable.
Derpy 
Well, it probably is true that Ukraine will run out of troops before Russia will, just because Russia has a far vaster population. That's the main reason Hitler couldn't lick 'em.
ChloeTzang
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