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For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

One of Ukraine's most important objectives in the war against Russia is to recapture the occupied Crimean Peninsula from Russian control. Many analysts and politicians say it isn't possible - but they miss several very important points. Here, Paul Warburg takes a look at how Ukraine actually CAN retake Crimea, and why it could surprisingly be much easier than most people even imagine.

The war in Ukraine is not going to end any time soon
- Crimea was strategic at the start of the war - due to it's central position on the Black Sea Coast and the year-round ice-free port of Sevastaopol.
- Crimea is no longer strategically important - naval drones and missiles have eliminated it's strategic position as a naval base and Ukraine can hit any target in Crimea when they choose
- The things that make Crimea easy to defend (peninsulal, narrow choke points) also make it extrenely vulnerable - the Kerch Bridge being key for the Russians, and also it's water supply
- Vulnerable to beseige and the ability to cut the choke points
- When Ukraine is ready to take Crimea back, they can cut of all access routes
- Ukraine's strartegy is to lock into defensive positions and inflict huge losses on Russians until the Russian military and ecpnomy break - WW1 strategy
- When this happens, the battle for Crimea will take place - after the Russian military and economy break down
- Ukrainian drone production and technology is racing ahead - Ukraine could at some stage soon overwhelm the ground defences of Ukraine with drones

 
Anna nails it as always....

Ukraine has been attacking Moscow military objects with drones for the third day in a row. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency has imposed flight restrictions. Turkish Airlines consider leaving Russia.

For the last 3 days, no civil aviation flying in and out of Moscow. Closing airports in dozens of regions, turning Russia into a no-fly zone. Many of these airports are vital transportation points, and closing them down as a large impact on the Russian population.

Ukrainian drones working hard to bring peace to Russia through demilitarization.

 
On July 20, 2025, Ukraine launched its most disruptive drone strike on Moscow to date—shutting down all four major airports. "Full scale collapse." as a Russian channel said.

More than 134 planes were rerouted, passengers were stranded for hours, and fires broke out in the suburbs of Zelenograd. In a shocking turn of events, the strike exposed critical weaknesses in Russia's air defense system, overwhelming radar and jamming networks once considered impenetrable. This was not just a failure of hardware—but a collapse in confidence. The implications of this exposure are enormous: flights grounded, public panic, and regime isolation.

Ukraine’s evolving drone tactics are rewriting modern warfare, forcing Russia to spend exponentially more defending exponentially less. And as Moscow struggles to adapt, each drone strike chips away at Putin’s psychological stability—and at his ability to protect Russia’s capital.

In this video, Jason delves into the full strategic impact of the July 20 attack: the type of drones used, how they bypassed Russian defenses, and the growing economic and military consequences of Kyiv’s long-range drone strategy. This is psychological warfare fused with precision engineering. Every strike costs Ukraine mere thousands, yet forces the Kremlin into million-dollar overreactions. Putin’s paranoia is no longer rumor—it’s operational fact. Bunkers, armored trains, and total digital lockdown define his regime. And this campaign is no accident. It’s designed to bankrupt the illusion of Russian invincibility—until the entire system collapses under its own weight.

 
A look at Russia’s 41st Army and the losses it's been experiencing in Donetsk. Not sure the losses actually matter that much as long as Russia can keep mobilizing meat and sending them in while maintaining some semblance of structure and command... a huge percentage of Russian deserters are ex-convicts - and 50% of Russia's convicts have been fed into the Army at this point. Thousands of criminals are making their way back into Russian society....

 
ChloeTzang said:
Anna nails it as always....

Ukraine has been attacking Moscow military objects with drones for the third day in a row. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency has imposed flight restrictions. Turkish Airlines consider leaving Russia.

For the last 3 days, no civil aviation flying in and out of Moscow. Closing airports in dozens of regions, turning Russia into a no-fly zone. Many of these airports are vital transportation points, and closing them down as a large impact on the Russian population.

Ukrainian drones working hard to bring peace to Russia through demilitarization.

Click to expand...

Anna hit on a key point in that video that I had made some time ago: EVERYONE should be determined to deny Russia the prize of Ukraine after Putin’s bloody genocidal war of aggression - not only because it is the right things to do, but ALSO because Russia will use Ukraine as a base of operations for future attacks (military, cyber-warfare, election interference, cyber-crime, etc) on the west.

Russia uses every territory it controls as a base of operations to foster & export corruption & disruption.

Russia must be denied ANY & ALL SOVEREIGN Ukrainian territory; full stop. Any failure by the west to deny Russia their prize will be at the west’s own peril.

🇺🇸

Slava Ukraini!!!

🇺🇦
 
This is from Russian blogger “Philologist” and provides a vivid description of the overwhelming Ukrainian strength in drones near Pokrovsky.

Information from the ground on the situation in the southern section of the Pokrovsky direction.
  • We have no strength, we don't know what else to do. The sky is completely behind the [Ukrainians]. You can't go further than 3 km from Selidovo, they burn everything to hell.
  • There are a lot of kamikazi drones on optics, they monitor all the dirt roads 24/7. It's simply impossible to carry out a rotation. We walk 18 km. The issue of water, food, gasoline is acute. I'm not even talking about heating. The guys are literally freezing in their positions. There's nothing brought up at all.
  • Of the (Ukrainian drones) who are not on optics - the Khokhols (Ukrainians) the found a window where we don't have electronic warfare: frequencies, from 1020 to 2100. THey are actively working on them. The other day, two of our great fighters died: they simply didn't make it to their position. A drone got them.
    They don't let you cut the roof off the loaves (old Russian vans), like it's property on the balance sheet. You're riding in a loaf, like in a coffin, you can't see or hear anything. Personal transport is prohibited.
  • Everything is working in Novotroitskoye and the immediate rear: from a (artillery) barrel and MLRS to who knows what kind of missiles - we've never heard anything like that by the sound of it before. In short, it's fucked.
  • Nobody understands how to work in such an environment. The hohols (Ukrainians) are fucking us, fucking us really hard. If they start working with FABs as densely as near Avdos - we won't get any further.
  • EW expert Serhii “Flash” is in the area now. installing passive radio receivers, and reports 10:1 reception of Ukrainian FPV video signals relative to Russian
 
The End for Zelensky - Seymour Hersh

Washington wants the Ukrainian president to leave office—will it happen?

In fall of 2023, Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander in chief of the country’s armed forces, gave an interview to the Economist and declared the war with Russia had become a “stalemate.” It took three months for President Volodymyr Zelensky to fire him. The general, who is the most popular public figure in Ukraine, was named ambassador to London a month later and has served there with distinction, if quietly. Zaluzhnyi is now seen as the most credible successor to Zelensky. I have been told by knowledgeable officials in Washington that that job could be his within a few months. Zelensky is on a short list for exile, if President Donald Trump decides to make the call. If Zelensky refuses to leave his office, as is most likely, an involved US official told me: “He’s going to go by force. The ball is in his court.” There are many in Washington and in Ukraine who believe that the escalating air war with Russia must end soon, while there’s still a chance to make a settlement with its president, Vladimir Putin.

Fabricated drivel.

Someone needs to explain to this 'Pulitzer veteran' --who has long ago discredited himself with his phantom ‘anonymous sources’ conveniently appearing whenever needed -- that Ukraine is not his beloved Putinist KGB dictatorship, nor is it the Assad family regime, or even the Viet Cong.

Zelensky, as a wartime president, cannot just resign and ‘appoint’ General Zaluzhny to replace him at the imaginary demand of the U.S. administration. Under Ukrainian law, Zelensky, without new elections --can only resign and transfer his duties to the Speaker of Parliament, and his name is Ruslan Stefanchuk. Even then, Stefanchuk would have to wait for peacetime to call new elections.

And no, you can’t just magically make Zaluzhny a speaker and acting president either -- he’s not an elected member of parliament and was appointed ambassador to the U.S. And that’s not even mentioning the fact that the Ukrainian people have a say -- and yes, we’ve seen before how it ends for those who think they could ignore the will of the Ukrainian people on matters of strategic national course under foreign pressure -- they ended up fleeing to Russia in a hurry one winter day.

But why bother explaining all these nuances… when the ‘Pulitzer veteran’s’ latest anonymous sources are once again spouting total nonsense for idiots -- the kind no reputable media outlet with even basic fact-checking capabilities agrees to publish.

What's even more laughable here is that all these regular "anonymous sources" are so absolutely sure that General Zaluzhny, of all people, "getting the job" will somehow help "de-escalate" the war and "make a settlement" (i.o. Ukrainian surrender) with Russia "while there’s still a chance. "Those are the words of a simple-minded fool who's got no idea what he's even talking about. Zaluzhny is way more hardline than Zelensky, and has even less inclination to negotiate a fake "peace" with Putin that Zelensky has. If anyone in the Trump Administration is actually thinking this, they're a few sausages short of a full barbeque.

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/the-end-for-zelensky
 
ChloeTzang said:

Ukraine may get 17 Patriot launchers initially sold to Switzerland—report​

Kyiv could soon receive 17 Patriot AA launchers that were originally earmarked for Switzerland. The U.S. Department of Defense has warned Bern of a delay in the delivery schedule. Swiss officials said that the change in delivery dates affects five Patriot batteries that were scheduled for delivery in 2026, as per an agreement reached in 2021. Under the contract, Switzerland was to receive 17 launchers, along with 70 GEM-T surface-to-air missiles, five AN/MPQ-65 radars, six MIDS-LVT data links, and five AN/MSQ-132 command posts.

According to the report, each of the five Patriot batteries likely includes three launchers, and the additional two launchers may have been purchased as spares.

It is still unclear how the United States will navigate the bureaucratic and legal challenges involved in transferring these air defense systems—originally ordered by Switzerland—to Ukraine. However, even the possibility of providing Ukraine with 17 launchers, roughly five batteries, and approximately 140 missiles, is significant as Russia continues to fire ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities nearly every day.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine-may-get-17-swiss-patriot-launchers-report-50530639.html

View attachment 2553824
Click to expand...
Like the systems donated before them, these will likely be destroyed in place. Here are some key takeaways from the latest assessments by the pro-Ukrainian Institute for the Study of War (ISW) regarding current and projected Russian capabilities. Review them and judge for yourself whether they indicate a growing Russian advantage over Ukraine’s air defenses.

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian officials continue to publicly reiterate that Russia is uninterested in a near-term solution to ending the war in Ukraine that does not acquiesce to Moscow’s demands.
  • German and Ukrainian officials assessed that Russia continues to expand its production of Shahed-type drones in order to launch even larger long-range drone strike packages that include up to 2,000 drones in a single night. Russian forces may be able to strike Ukraine with up to 2,000 drones in a single night by November 2025 should the current pattern of growth in nightly Russian drone usage continue.
  • Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reiterated demands for Russia to take responsibility for the December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane, an incident that continues to create tension in the Russian-Azerbaijani relationship.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Sumy and Zaporizhia oblasts and near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near ***** and Novopavlivka.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-20-2025
 
Time to repost Russia's Ultimatum (in the form of a draft agreement) from December 15, 2021:

The United States of America and the Russian Federation, hereinafter referred to as the “Parties”,

guided by the principles contained in the Charter of the United Nations, the 1970 Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, the 1975 Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, as well as the provisions of the 1982 Manila Declaration on the Peaceful Settlement of Disputes, the 1999 Charter for European Security, and the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Russian Federation,

recalling the inadmissibility of the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations both in their mutual and international relations in general,

supporting the role of the United Nations Security Council that has the primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security,

recognizing the need for united efforts to effectively respond to modern security challenges and threats in a globalized and interdependent world,

considering the need for strict compliance with the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs, including refraining from supporting organizations, groups or individuals calling for an unconstitutional change of power, as well as from undertaking any actions aimed at changing the political or social system of one of the Contracting Parties,

bearing in mind the need to create additional effective and quick-to-launch cooperation mechanisms or improve the existing ones to settle emerging issues and disputes through a constructive dialogue on the basis of mutual respect for and recognition of each other’s security interests and concerns, as well as to elaborate adequate responses to security challenges and threats,

seeking to avoid any military confrontation and armed conflict between the Parties and realizing that direct military clash between them could result in the use of nuclear weapons that would have far-reaching consequences,

reaffirming that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, and recognizing the need to make every effort to prevent the risk of outbreak of such war among States that possess nuclear weapons,

reaffirming their commitments under the Agreement between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Measures to Reduce the Risk of Outbreak of Nuclear War of 30 September 1971, the Agreement between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Prevention of Incidents On and Over the High Seas of 25 May 1972, the Agreement between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Establishment of Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers of 15 September 1987, as well as the Agreement between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities of 12 June 1989,

have agreed as follows:

Article 1

The Parties shall cooperate on the basis of principles of indivisible, equal and undiminished security and to these ends:

shall not undertake actions nor participate in or support activities that affect the security of the other Party;

shall not implement security measures adopted by each Party individually or in the framework of an international organization, military alliance or coalition that could undermine core security interests of the other Party.

Article 2

The Parties shall seek to ensure that all international organizations, military alliances and coalitions in which at least one of the Parties is taking part adhere to the principles contained in the Charter of the United Nations.

Article 3

The Parties shall not use the territories of other States with a view to preparing or carrying out an armed attack against the other Party or other actions affecting core security interests of the other Party.

Article 4

The United States of America shall undertake to prevent further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and deny accession to the Alliance to the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

The United States of America shall not establish military bases in the territory of the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics that are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, use their infrastructure for any military activities or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.

Article 5

The Parties shall refrain from deploying their armed forces and armaments, including in the framework of international organizations, military alliances or coalitions, in the areas where such deployment could be perceived by the other Party as a threat to its national security, with the exception of such deployment within the national territories of the Parties.

The Parties shall refrain from flying heavy bombers equipped for nuclear or non-nuclear armaments or deploying surface warships of any type, including in the framework of international organizations, military alliances or coalitions, in the areas outside national airspace and national territorial waters respectively, from where they can attack targets in the territory of the other Party.

The Parties shall maintain dialogue and cooperate to improve mechanisms to prevent dangerous military activities on and over the high seas, including agreeing on the maximum approach distance between warships and aircraft.

Article 6

The Parties shall undertake not to deploy ground-launched intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside their national territories, as well as in the areas of their national territories, from which such weapons can attack targets in the national territory of the other Party.

Article 7

The Parties shall refrain from deploying nuclear weapons outside their national territories and return such weapons already deployed outside their national territories at the time of the entry into force of the Treaty to their national territories. The Parties shall eliminate all existing infrastructure for deployment of nuclear weapons outside their national territories.

The Parties shall not train military and civilian personnel from non-nuclear countries to use nuclear weapons. The Parties shall not conduct exercises or training for general-purpose forces, that include scenarios involving the use of nuclear weapons.

Article 8

The Treaty shall enter into force from the date of receipt of the last written notification on the completion by the Parties of their domestic procedures necessary for its entry into force.

Done in two originals, each in English and Russian languages, both texts being equally authentic.

For the United States of America For the Russian Federation

Source: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/dec/23/treaty-between-united-states-america-russian/
 
Probably already dead. Doubt they'll hear from him again, get his body back, or get is pay. He's disappeared for good and his family is screwed. They'll be lucky to make it out of Russia. Apparently his wife was an alcoholic before and she's hitting the vodka hard. I feel sorry for the kids. Hope they make it out and back to the USA okay


1753136996693.png
 
On July 23, Ukrainian drones struck a major Lukoil fuel facility near Sochi, setting off explosions that grounded flights and forced evacuations. The attack marked another precise blow to Russia’s energy infrastructure, with satellite analysis suggesting damages exceeding $95 million. In just six months, Ukraine has hit at least 27 energy sites, crippling oil exports and forcing Russia to extend a gasoline export ban.

The Sirius strike follows dozens of similar attacks, including the October 2024 Feodosia depot hit and the recent Novocherkassk rail junction strike. Together, these operations have degraded Russia’s military logistics and severely impacted refinery capacity—estimated to have dropped by 15%. With labor shortages, destroyed infrastructure, and mounting losses, Russia’s oil-dependent economy is bleeding fast, with no quick recovery in sight.



 
Putin’s relentless drone campaign is facing a powerful new obstacle. Ukraine is restoring Cold War-era HAWK missile systems with support from the U.S. and Greece in a $322 million deal. This move strengthens Ukraine’s air defenses using refurbished American hardware and NATO cooperation. With upgraded capabilities and vital logistics support, Ukraine is now better equipped to counter Russia’s escalating drone strikes—and it’s no longer waiting on handouts to do it.

Also repair and maintenance services for Bradley IFV's

 
A combat medic speaks:

That evening, I learned of a severely wounded soldier trapped under enemy surveillance. He had lain there for hours, motionless, while a Russian drone circled overhead, waiting to strike any rescue team.The company commander didn’t hesitate. He seized the moment and ran into danger to reach him. Against all odds, they made it back to the nearest shelter. Late that night, I arrived hoping I could still help. He was barely alive. We tried five, maybe six times to insert an IV. Nothing. His veins had collapsed. Then, somehow, I found one. We pushed fluids. His blood pressure rose. A few more injections — he stabilized.

The evacuation team arrived. We loaded him in. I told him, “That’s it, boy. Hold on. The doctors are waiting. Just a little longer and you’ll be fine.”They drove off. I sat down, exhausted. Another combat medic snapped a photo of me in that moment. A second later — a deafening explosion. Then, silence.The evac team never checked in again. The Russians had been waiting. Everyone was killed.

When I joined the army, people asked: “Are you here to avenge your husband? Do you want blood?” I always said no. I wasn’t here to kill — I was here to save lives. So that no one, like my husband, would die without medical care on the battlefield. They asked if I’d treat prisoners. I said yes. It was my duty.

Not anymore.I don’t want to save them. I want to kill. I want to watch them die. I want to see their mothers and wives screaming over their graves. I won’t help any prisoner. I don’t care about your humanity, your rules of war, your conventions. Damn you, Russians.You, your children, your grandchildren — for all the grief you’ve brought to our land.

The Russians have never abided by the Geneva Convention and never will. The Ukranians are finding that out and more and more of them will react like this. There will be no mercy for the Russians. They don't deserve mercy.

1753506225467.png
 
Three Russian Brigades encircled, trapped and destroyed almost completely in Sumy
- 155th Brigade
- 14th Seperate Motorized Brigade
- 13th Motorized Brigade

Great update from Denys - and a great operation by the Ukrainian Army

 
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