Here's How Donald Trump Could Become President
- Thread starter toubab
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What I don't think is relevant to anything is you.
It's nice to think of you as flinging spittle all over the place as you foam at the mouth, though.
You have an odd idea of what constitutes foaming at the mouth, genius.
I'm being totally objective. If Democrats cared about corruption they never would have nominated Hillary. Sanders is a fucking saint compared to her, especially in that regard. Only a fool can't see that. But you are that kind of fool, obviously.
4est_4est_Gump
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"Brawlers know the rules of the street far better than establishmentarians. The Senate is not The Apprentice, and politics is not New York real estate. Ask the trash-talking Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg if she came out on top in dueling with Trump — or whether she virtually destroyed a quarter-century’s reputation in minutes and ended up no better than an elderly version of Rosie O’Donnell in a Supreme Court Justice costume. Hillary is stepping up her crude attacks on Trump. But as in the past, such hits are more likely to make the Trump mode suddenly seem normal, and to make Trump a target of those who claim they are more sober and judicious but in extremis prove no more measured than Trump himself."
Victor Davis Hanson, Ten Reasons Why Trump Could Win
http://www.nationalreview.com/node/438011/print
Victor Davis Hanson, Ten Reasons Why Trump Could Win
http://www.nationalreview.com/node/438011/print
An interesting poll I'm following daily:
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-daybreak-poll-methodology-20160714-snap-story.html
4est_4est_Gump
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No poll means a damned thing until after Labor Day.
That's the point at which everyone starts paying attention and the pollsters have to go from politicking to protecting their reputations...
That's the point at which everyone starts paying attention and the pollsters have to go from politicking to protecting their reputations...
The interesting thing about this poll is it's the same 3000 people being polled daily, or a subset of those people being polled daily, a minimum of 400, usually well over a thousand. So the changes in the poll are likely due to changes of mind, and not due to changes of respondents.
M
miles
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No poll means a damn thing, period. Just ask Jimmy Carter, the former Worst President in History.
http://16004-presscdn-0-50.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/carter-reagan-e1347157660612.jpg
M
miles
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Now that virtually everyone has caller ID, who in the hell answers the phone when they con't recognize who it's coming from?
RobDownSouth
Trump Is Dying
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And this election is gonna be just like every other election, right Chief?
By the way, the only poll that truly means a "damned thing" is the one on Election Day.
And pre-emptively: Good morning miles! I know you have this incessant need to comment immediately after I post, so I just wanted to tell you I'm praying for your family.
4est_4est_Gump
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Not interesting.
Not Labor Day.
Polling is a Science which is not dependent upon a fixed group. I'd sooner follow the RCP averages...
Not Labor Day.
Polling is a Science which is not dependent upon a fixed group. I'd sooner follow the RCP averages...
Suit yourself. I find polling the same people over a period of months interesting. If either Trump or Hillary takes a big lead in this particular poll and holds it, it will impress me greatly.
4est_4est_Gump
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Then you do not understand statistic modeling...
Most people who do not have math degrees don't. Your static example is simply not either interesting or relevant.
Most people who do not have math degrees don't. Your static example is simply not either interesting or relevant.
I've been following polling very closely for decades. I understand it very well. Perhaps you should inform USC and the LA Times they have no idea what they're doing with this poll. I'm sure they will be interested in your opinion.
4est_4est_Gump
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Do you really want me to go study the sample group and pick it apart?
3,000 unchanging people that represent the swing states and all demographics?
Bullshit.
3,000 unchanging people that represent the swing states and all demographics?
Bullshit.
RobDownSouth
Trump Is Dying
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<Gump Mode>
Please provide evidence of "unchanging".
Names, addresses, ages, bank account balances and social security numbers will suffice
</Gump Mode>
For all your braggin' about your college degree in "mathmatics" (sic), you seem to not understand the basics of statistical probability.
That's the entire point of the poll. Now you may quibble with the people that were selected, but that's your prerogative. If you bothered to read how the poll is being done, you'd see the pollsters tried to get as representative a sample as possible. Even if they failed, it's the same group, so as they change their opinion it's significant, in my opinion.
4est_4est_Gump
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You can try, but you cannot succeed which is why uniqueness is important in sampling, it eliminates the unrecognized prejudices that exist within all of us, not to mention the hubris of people who think that they can pick a perfect sample...
... no one, no group, no metric can do that. As it is, I'll wager that any changes you are seeing in this deeply flawed poll are also showing up in the RCP averages.
... no one, no group, no metric can do that. As it is, I'll wager that any changes you are seeing in this deeply flawed poll are also showing up in the RCP averages.
You can try, but you cannot succeed which is why uniqueness is important in sampling, it eliminates the unrecognized prejudices that exist within all of us, not to mention the hubris of people who think that they can pick a perfect sample...
... no one, no group, no metric can do that. As it is, I'll wager that any changes you are seeing in this deeply flawed poll are also showing up in the RCP averages.
So far there has been little change in the results. Trump's lead was about three, now it's about one. It will be interesting to see if the RCP averages go up or down at the same rate as this poll.
richmondman
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We'll see, but the LA Times poll is one of the outliers as compared to the polling from many other credible sources. The poll should track only likely voters, which I assume that it does but that is not clear.
This election will end up being like any other. Trump should get a pretty good sized bump after the convention as usual - the messaging is all one side, their is lots of enthusiasm and a national audience, like a multiday commercial. If he doesn't get the bump, he is in very serious trouble. Hillary will also get a bump after the Democratic convention, same reasons. Then after Labor Day you will see more meaningful tracking poll numbers.
At this juncture, the thought is that the partisan voters are locked in no matter what happens, one way or the other. The independent voters and very lightly informed voters start leaning one way or the other around October 1. The activities in the last few weeks before the election will be aimed at persuading them, which is why candidates will "soften" their message.
My gut is that Hillary is going to win very big. I don't particularly like her, but the national voting demographics, her fundraising and very deep organization and an incumbent with about a 50% approval rating are all on her side. Then there's Trump, who just isn't a good candidate. Why he would piss off women, who comprise 54% of the electorate and vote at a high rate, didn't make any sense. But little of what he says does, it's nothing but insult or "great!"
This election will end up being like any other. Trump should get a pretty good sized bump after the convention as usual - the messaging is all one side, their is lots of enthusiasm and a national audience, like a multiday commercial. If he doesn't get the bump, he is in very serious trouble. Hillary will also get a bump after the Democratic convention, same reasons. Then after Labor Day you will see more meaningful tracking poll numbers.
At this juncture, the thought is that the partisan voters are locked in no matter what happens, one way or the other. The independent voters and very lightly informed voters start leaning one way or the other around October 1. The activities in the last few weeks before the election will be aimed at persuading them, which is why candidates will "soften" their message.
My gut is that Hillary is going to win very big. I don't particularly like her, but the national voting demographics, her fundraising and very deep organization and an incumbent with about a 50% approval rating are all on her side. Then there's Trump, who just isn't a good candidate. Why he would piss off women, who comprise 54% of the electorate and vote at a high rate, didn't make any sense. But little of what he says does, it's nothing but insult or "great!"
Sean Renaud
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Lots of people. I sure as fuck do.
M
miles
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So lots of people do because you do?
I don't like taking phone calls from people trying to sell me useless shit. If it's an important call they can leave a message.
Sean Renaud
The West Coast Pop
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You asked who does and I gave you an answer. I didn't say lots of people do, apparently enough people do for polling to remain accurate enough to mean something.
I'm only hardly any telemarketing lists though. So that helps.
Disgustipated
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The entire Republican base.
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