Here's How Donald Trump Could Become President

[miles]

You asked who does and I gave you an answer. I didn't say lots of people do, apparently enough people do for polling to remain accurate enough to mean something.

I'm only hardly any telemarketing lists though. So that helps.

You didn't say "lots of people?" Who did?

Some evil doer must have hacked your account and posted that under your name!

That's the second time I've seen that in as many days. You should report this security issue to Laurel immediately.

This is terrible. None of us are safe.

 

[Sean Renaud]

sorry my bust, did say lots of people. Not that it changes my point.

 

[toubab]

We'll see, but the LA Times poll is one of the outliers as compared to the polling from many other credible sources. The poll should track only likely voters, which I assume that it does but that is not clear.

This election will end up being like any other. Trump should get a pretty good sized bump after the convention as usual - the messaging is all one side, their is lots of enthusiasm and a national audience, like a multiday commercial. If he doesn't get the bump, he is in very serious trouble. Hillary will also get a bump after the Democratic convention, same reasons. Then after Labor Day you will see more meaningful tracking poll numbers.

At this juncture, the thought is that the partisan voters are locked in no matter what happens, one way or the other. The independent voters and very lightly informed voters start leaning one way or the other around October 1. The activities in the last few weeks before the election will be aimed at persuading them, which is why candidates will "soften" their message.

My gut is that Hillary is going to win very big. I don't particularly like her, but the national voting demographics, her fundraising and very deep organization and an incumbent with about a 50% approval rating are all on her side. Then there's Trump, who just isn't a good candidate. Why he would piss off women, who comprise 54% of the electorate and vote at a high rate, didn't make any sense. But little of what he says does, it's nothing but insult or "great!"

As you may know, most polls are not limited to likely voters. Many are limited to registered voters, but some are not even that limited. Some include all citizens, whether registered to vote or not, and some even include non-citizens. That's why it's important to look at each poll separately, and to take RCP averages somewhat with a grain of salt.

 

[toubab]

Here's a poll that is often cited as being credible, inexplicably to me, which shows Clinton dropping like a stone recently and Trump rising like a rocket:

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_13

RCP averages include polls of all kinds. Some of them highly suspect, in my opinion.

 

[Hard_Rom]

You folk are starting to scare me into thinking enough of you are stupid enough to vote for him. Here's hoping/praying most Republicans bow out and stay home instead of voting.

 

[toubab]

You folk are starting to scare me into thinking enough of you are stupid enough to vote for him. Here's hoping/praying most Republicans bow out and stay home instead of voting.

I can't believe Democrats were stupid enough to nominate Hillary Clinton. If they lose this election, they will deserve it for being that stupid.

 

[BettyPoop]

I can't believe Democrats were stupid enough to nominate Hillary Clinton. If they lose this election, they will deserve it for being that stupid.

They could also lose because you're too stupid.

 

[toubab]

They could also lose because you're too stupid.

Not stupid enough to vote for Hillary. Are you?

 

[Hard_Rom]

Billy's wife is at least an established politician. Nothing overly radical. As honest and competent as most US politicians. Real middle of the road American politician. Obama types come out of nowhere with no serious baggage are hard to come by.

Even the Moron was a better POTUS then Il Donald will ever be. All the other righty fundie Reps would have been a better choice.

Trump is a clown with a bad hair cut nothing more.

 

[toubab]

Billy's wife is at least an established politician. Nothing overly radical. As honest and competent as most US politicians. Real middle of the road American politician. Obama types come out of nowhere with no serious baggage are hard to come by.

Even the Moron was a better POTUS then Il Donald will ever be. All the other righty fundie Reps would have been a better choice.

Trump is a clown with a bad hair cut nothing more.

Just to add to your worries I'd like to point out that in the five presidential elections before the last two the candidate who had the lead in RCP averages before the conventions lost four times.

 

[Sean Renaud]

And Obama's lack of baggage has everything to do with him running when he was a junior senator. Which despite that it worked is still bullshit.

 

[toubab]

Hillary has taken her first lead in the USC/LA Times daily tracking poll, 43.4 to 42.8. On the other hand, Michael Moore says he thinks Trump is going to win. So it's six of one, half a dozen of the other.

 

[Christobal]

Donald is now a done deal. When you vote do you want the arsenic or the strychnine?

Both will kill you.

 

[toubab]

Donald is now a done deal. When you vote do you want the arsenic or the strychnine?

Both will kill you.

Donald has been declared dead so many times, by so many people, it's become its own joke. I remind you, the leader in pre-convention polling averages lost four out of five presidential elections in the US from 1988 to 2004.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Yeah. Donald doesn't seem to know the word die.

 

[snugglestruggle]

How long until Hillary runs to Obama asking him to save her ?

 

[Sean Renaud]

How long until Hillary runs to Obama asking him to save her ?

Wont happen. At least not anymore than it already is. She is formally running as the third term of Obama.

 

[Jennifer]

This thread really delivers. Thanks to all!

 

[snugglestruggle]

Wont happen. At least not anymore than it already is. She is formally running as the third term of Obama.

If she doesn't jump to a double digit lead after the DNC convention, you can be your last dollar Obama will be all over the place campaigning for her.

 

[toubab]

This thread really delivers. Thanks to all!

Well, I've found it interesting. This is an interesting election, to put it mildly.

 

[RoryN]

Marsha Blackburn is channeling Sarah Palin. Poorly.

And quoting Larry the Cable Guy.

And referencing iPhone and twitter like they just came to be.

Did they wake her up from 2012?

LOL

 

[Sean Renaud]

If she doesn't jump to a double digit lead after the DNC convention, you can be your last dollar Obama will be all over the place campaigning for her.

Well that's part of his job. But I guess that could happen.

 

[Disgustipated]

What happened to 4est_4est_Gump?

He was all about this thread a couple days ago and now... nothing

I hope he's ok.

 

[SgtSpiderMan]

Marsha Blackburn is channeling Sarah Palin. Poorly.

And quoting Larry the Cable Guy.

And referencing iPhone and twitter like they just came to be.

Did they wake her up from 2012?

LOL

If they did wake her up from 2012 she'd be the most up to date person in the party.

 

[RoryN]

Trump's speech so far sounds exactly like the one a leader gives before he sends in the National Guard to beat minorities.