Here's How Donald Trump Could Become President

[toubab]

If the Don goes down by say ten points or so, will he throw in the towel and just fuck around at his rallies? And will we be able to discern the difference if that occurs?

I don't know, but whatever he does will be interesting. By the way, since he is at 45.3 in this poll two days in a row it means he did exactly as well in yesterday's poll as he did in the one taken a week ago, so things may be leveling off for him. Hillary did better in yesterday's poll than she did in the one taken a week ago, hence her overall rating today is higher than yesterday's.

 

[toubab]

For those of you who wonder why I find this USC/LA Times daily poll so interesting and possibly predictive, it's because the same people who are conducting the present poll for USC and the Times conducted one in 2012 using the same unique methodology, which they developed under a different name, RAND, and it was pretty accurate as a predictor of what would happen eventually in that election. Here is information about the 2012 poll:

https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012

Final average:

Obama 49.5

Romney 46.18

Note Obama led nearly all the way in the 2012 polling averages. So far Trump has led almost every day this time around. That may change, of course, but if it doesn't, it should concern Hillary and her supporters, in my opinion. This poll is very different from others.

 

[Sean]

The Face of a Current Democrat Hero:



http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/08/02/khizr-khan-constitution-sharia/

Pocket Constitution my ass!

Planted PROP!!!

Here is the book review in question:

https://www.scribd.com/document/320016178/Khizr-Khan-Human-Rights-Islam

 

[Disgustipated]

The Latest: Trump Taj Mahal union rep denounces Icahn

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...87319a-59a9-11e6-8b48-0cb344221131_story.html

The president of a union whose strike against the Trump Taj Mahal led owner Carl Icahn to decide to shut the gambling hall down is denouncing the billionaire investor.

Bob McDevitt, president of Local 54 of the Unite-HERE union, says Icahn “would rather burn the Trump Taj Mahal down just so he can control the ashes.”

Icahn’s company announced Wednesday it will shut the Taj Mahal down after Labor Day weekend, but an exact shutdown date has not yet been set.

McDevitt says 60-day warning notices for employees are required, estimating the earliest a shutdown would be permitted would be in early October.

Tony Rodio, president of Tropicana Entertainment, which runs the Taj Mahal, said management decided it can no longer operate a money-losing property in the midst of a strike.

 

[toubab]

USC/LA Times poll: Clinton takes lead

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-daybreak-poll-methodology-20160714-snap-story.html

Clinton 44.8

Trump 44.2


In order for Trump to have lost this much in one day in this poll, and Hillary to have gained a similar amount the same day, the difference between yesterday's daily poll and the one a week ago has to have been huge.

 

[Adre]

What's this secret tape Donald is yapping about seeing? Is he spilling the beans already?

 

[doctor_insanus]

Trump has basically conceded the election. He's yapping about it being rigged, which is Republican code for "I can't win, but I'm gonna make sure the knuckle-draggers distrust the gubmint even more."

 

[toubab]

Trump has basically conceded the election. He's yapping about it being rigged, which is Republican code for "I can't win, but I'm gonna make sure the knuckle-draggers distrust the gubmint even more."

If WikiLeaks or the Russians or somebody holding some goods on Hillary don't come to Trump's rescue he's in big, big trouble, I would say.

 

[Adre]

If WikiLeaks or the Russians or somebody holding some goods on Hillary don't come to Trump's rescue he's in big, big trouble, I would say.

A video of her doing a mob style execution may be necessary to turn the tide.

 

[toubab]

A video of her doing a mob style execution may be necessary to turn the tide.

She would still get 47% of the vote.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Nah. She needs to eat a live baby. If she did the right thing and put it out of its misery before eating it things will still be close or no change.

 

[VaticanAssassin]

The election is over. Hillary has won.

Maybe, just maybe, if anything on the Clinton foundation was released it could change, but Wiki hasn't even hinted they compromised that.

If DNC emails about taco bowl voters, vagina voters, racist names, hiring protesters, and all the email lies haven't worked, nothing will.


At this point I am just hoping something happens to them both and we get to see who the RNC/DNC nominate behind closed doors.

 

[toubab]

The election is over. Hillary has won.

Maybe, just maybe, if anything on the Clinton foundation was released it could change, but Wiki hasn't even hinted they compromised that.

If DNC emails about taco bowl voters, vagina voters, racist names, hiring protesters, and all the email lies haven't worked, nothing will.


At this point I am just hoping something happens to them both and we get to see who the RNC/DNC nominate behind closed doors.

I think it's too soon to say it's over. The polls look really bad right now for Trump, some showing Clinton ahead by ten points or more, but that's unrealistic. Obama only beat Romney by 3.9% in 2012, and that was considered an easy win.

Many of these polls are full of holes. Here's an example:


http://www.butasforme.com/post/148453296126/cnn-rigged-poll-to-show-a-9-point-convention

"CNN Rigged Poll To Show a 9-Point “Convention Bump” & Unity Among Democrats"

"Trump said, “There’s something phony” about this week’s CNN poll.

Truth is, he’s right.

CNN is excluding certain demographics from their poll.

On the question of “democratic party unity,” they leave out frustrated millennials that support Sanders. Specifically, they leave out the 18-34 demographic and the 35-49 demographic. These age groups were heavy Sanders supporters. Maybe that’s why CNN didn’t want to include them in their poll."

 

[Adre]

The way it looks I question whether he'll win even one swing state. PA probably gone, CO next, FL looking shaky, etc.

 

[toubab]

The way it looks I question whether he'll win even one swing state. PA probably gone, CO next, FL looking shaky, etc.

The odds are heavily against Trump, no doubt. But you know the last time a presidential election in the US was won by ten points or more? 1984. Most have been won by narrow margins, one since then actually going to the loser of the popular vote. So any poll showing a double digit lead nationally for anybody should be looked at as probable bullshit.

 

[Sean Renaud]

-snip-
CNN is excluding certain demographics from their poll.

On the question of “democratic party unity,” they leave out frustrated millennials that support Sanders. Specifically, they leave out the 18-34 demographic and the 35-49 demographic. These age groups were heavy Sanders supporters. Maybe that’s why CNN didn’t want to include them in their poll."

Agreed. This is why no single poll should be taken as gospel. This is also post convention bump territory for Hillary which will presumably settle back in soonish. I think she'll still be ahead, maybe even a bit further than she was before the conventions but I find it hard to believe she's 10 pts up once things normalize.

 

[BettyPoop]

Agreed. This is why no single poll should be taken as gospel. This is also post convention bump territory for Hillary which will presumably settle back in soonish. I think she'll still be ahead, maybe even a bit further than she was before the conventions but I find it hard to believe she's 10 pts up once things normalize.

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is usually a good source when discussing polls.

 

[Adre]

The odds are heavily against Trump, no doubt. But you know the last time a presidential election in the US was won by ten points or more? 1984. Most have been won by narrow margins, one since then actually going to the loser of the popular vote. So any poll showing a double digit lead nationally for anybody should be looked at as probable bullshit.

Which is precisely why I keep telling you to focus on the states. The landslide happens in the EC as everyone knows.

 

[toubab]

Which is precisely why I keep telling you to focus on the states. The landslide happens in the EC as everyone knows.

There are only a few states that matter, and it's difficult to know which way they will go. The winner of the popular vote nationally almost always wins in the electoral college.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com is usually a good source when discussing polls.

Yep. But it's worth noting he's not a polster, he does an aggregate of all the polls and then discusses them with a lot of other data. Haven't looked at it lately.

 

[toubab]

Yep. But it's worth noting he's not a polster, he does an aggregate of all the polls and then discusses them with a lot of other data. Haven't looked at it lately.

A couple of weeks ago Nate said Trump would win if the election were held then. I'm sure he's back to saying Clinton would win if the election were held today. He's been consistently saying he thinks Clinton is likely to win when November comes around.

 

[richmondman]

Nate Silver is a brilliant statistician, and his analyses and dissections are really good and, I think, impartial.

We're still in the "bump" period. Over the next 2-3 weeks we'll see where the polls are settling out.

I agree that looking at the states is more relevant than looking at the overall popular vote.

The main argument for Trump winning is that he will turn out legions of male "regular Americans" in record numbers (male, white, Christian, no college degree, from the south or midwest). That's a questionable strategy to begin with, and Silver has an analysis of it showing that it probably wouldn't work.

 

[toubab]

Nate Silver is a brilliant statistician, and his analyses and dissections are really good and, I think, impartial.

We're still in the "bump" period. Over the next 2-3 weeks we'll see where the polls are settling out.

I agree that looking at the states is more relevant than looking at the overall popular vote.

The main argument for Trump winning is that he will turn out legions of male "regular Americans" in record numbers (male, white, Christian, no college degree, from the south or midwest). That's a questionable strategy to begin with, and Silver has an analysis of hit showing that it probably wouldn't work.

I think Nate got the winner of all fifty states right last time. Can't get much better than that.

 

[richmondman]

This is a good article:

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2016-campaign-strong-interest-widespread-dissatisfaction/

It's a month old, so the data is dated. But the essential points appear to be valid, especially from reading the posts on this thread.

To a very large degree, both sides are not so much voting "for" their candidate, but "against" the opponent, and those attitudes are baked in. No amount of name calling, insult, or whatever is going to make any difference.

The article didn't go this far, but my judgment is that Trump has pretty much topped out on markets that will vote for him, i.e. he doesn't seem to have much room for growth. The exception to that is if he can turn out about every white "regular" American to vote for him, but even that group (9%) has its share, 40-ish% who would vote for Clinton. Clinton's challenge is to make sure that the younger, educated voters turn out in Obama-esque numbers, which means abating the Bernie affection they have. I think she has the edge in independent, undecideds (even if that group is smaller than usual), and Trump is helping her by being himself. And she'll be ok with the younger folks because her ground game operation will be vastly better than anything Trump can muster at this point.

 

[about_average]

It seems this time he actually did hurt himself lashing out at the Khan's. There's been a lot of outright defection since that.
I haven't seen anyone say, "I agree that his sacrifice of working hard is a good comparison to a soldier who sacrificed his life in the line of duty."
I'm appalled some families of the KIA still support him, or any veteran's for that matter, but there's no accounting for some people.