Here's How Donald Trump Could Become President

[toubab]

Long Room

http://longroom.com/polls/

I just came across this site. Reminds me of the infamous Unskewed Polls of 2012. Thought I'd post it here, just in case it's right this time.

 

[BettyPoop]

Keep donating to Trump.

It's not like you were going to spend it on your kids' educations.

 

[BettyPoop]

Trump has basically conceded the election. He's yapping about it being rigged, which is Republican code for "I can't win, but I'm gonna make sure the knuckle-draggers distrust the gubmint even more."

He'll quit with the knuckle-draggers' donations (no wonder he loves the uneducated*). Why are they even donating now? What do they get? A hat made in China? A plastic Purple Heart made in China?

*Melania said she got a college degree on her website. The entire site was just taken down because of that lie. She has no college degree.

 

[Wrong Element]

For those of you who wonder why I find this USC/LA Times daily poll so interesting and possibly predictive, it's because the same people who are conducting the present poll for USC and the Times conducted one in 2012 using the same unique methodology, which they developed under a different name, RAND, and it was pretty accurate as a predictor of what would happen eventually in that election. Here is information about the 2012 poll:

https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012

Final average:

Obama 49.5

Romney 46.18

Note Obama led nearly all the way in the 2012 polling averages. So far Trump has led almost every day this time around. That may change, of course, but if it doesn't, it should concern Hillary and her supporters, in my opinion. This poll is very different from others.

Isn't there a danger of an observer effect with this poll? The fact that these folks know they're being paid attention to can't help but influence their responses. People who have been telling a pollster the same thing every day for weeks and weeks are going to be less apt to admit they've changed their minds than people who are being contacted by a pollster for the first time. At least that's what human nature tells me.

This poll has apparently finally caught up with all the others in showing a lead for Clinton. There's a lot of time left, but a 8-10 point lead after both conventions is historically pretty solid. Candidates have come close to coming back from deficits that big (Humphrey in '68 and Ford in '76), but no one has pulled it off since Truman. I think it's going to take some sort of unexpected event for Trump to have a chance.

 

[BettyPoop]

fivethirtyeight.com

Nate Silver's poll analysis better than the Fox Women's Upskirt Poll.

 

[toubab]

Isn't there a danger of an observer effect with this poll? The fact that these folks know they're being paid attention to can't help but influence their responses. People who have been telling a pollster the same thing every day for weeks and weeks are going to be less apt to admit they've changed their minds than people who are being contacted by a pollster for the first time. At least that's what human nature tells me.

This poll has apparently finally caught up with all the others in showing a lead for Clinton. There's a lot of time left, but a 8-10 point lead after both conventions is historically pretty solid. Candidates have come close to coming back from deficits that big (Humphrey in '68 and Ford in '76), but no one has pulled it off since Truman. I think it's going to take some sort of unexpected event for Trump to have a chance.

It's the same methodology used in 2012, and it proved very accurate then.

I agree it will take something unusual for Trump to win.

 

[Disgustipated]

Here's some poll news, 2b0b!

Donald Trump Just Had Another Very Bad Polling Day

Fresh off of a post-convention bounce, Hillary Clinton is continuing to grow her lead over Donald Trump, according to new national polling released Thursday evening.

Clinton leads Trump by 9 points, 47 percent to 38 percent, in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey. While both candidates remain unpopular, the survey finds, Clinton’s image has improved “modestly.” A majority of voters say they have more trust in her to handle a crisis and to deal with foreign policy.

 

[about_average]

I think it's going to take some sort of unexpected event for Trump to have a chance.

A major terrorist attack shortly before the election could quite possibly put him over the top.

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Isn't there a danger of an observer effect with this poll? The fact that these folks know they're being paid attention to can't help but influence their responses. People who have been telling a pollster the same thing every day for weeks and weeks are going to be less apt to admit they've changed their minds than people who are being contacted by a pollster for the first time. At least that's what human nature tells me.

This poll has apparently finally caught up with all the others in showing a lead for Clinton. There's a lot of time left, but a 8-10 point lead after both conventions is historically pretty solid. Candidates have come close to coming back from deficits that big (Humphrey in '68 and Ford in '76), but no one has pulled it off since Truman. I think it's going to take some sort of unexpected event for Trump to have a chance.

I already tried to explain that, he's having nothing of it.

He duly notes that is a lagging indicator, without seeing it as such, but as a bell-weather. He is going to tell you for how many decades that he has been closely following this, so he's not about to have his expertise questioned in any, way, shape, or form.

 

[seth6138]

George W...LAST GOP President EVER!

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

That line keeps getting more original with each posting...

 

[4est_4est_Gump]

Hillary Clinton just promised to increase the deficit and raise taxes on the middle class...


:nods:

 

[zipman]

Hillary Clinton just promised to increase the deficit and raise taxes on the middle class...


:nods:

LOL, no she didn't. Do you really the think the audience would have been cheering if she reversed her current and consistent position on this?

Damn, you'll believe anything in your all consuming hate.

 

[toubab]

USC/LA Times daily poll: Interesting development

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-daybreak-poll-methodology-20160714-snap-story.html

Clinton 45.2

Trump 44.6


Both had a better day yesterday than a week ago, each showing a .4 increase in overall average.

 

[toubab]

Donald Trump Just Had Another Very Bad Polling Day

Did you think I would find this surprising?

 

[toubab]

A major terrorist attack shortly before the election could quite possibly put him over the top.

I agree.

 

[toubab]

I already tried to explain that, he's having nothing of it.

He duly notes that is a lagging indicator, without seeing it as such, but as a bell-weather. He is going to tell you for how many decades that he has been closely following this, so he's not about to have his expertise questioned in any, way, shape, or form.

Lagging indicator? Bellwether? What the hell are you talking about? How could something possibly be considered a bellwether when it's only been done once before?

 

[Disgustipated]

Did you think I would find this surprising?

Yes, because on a public forum with hundreds of thousands of people, my post was for your eyes only. Twatsicle.

 

[toubab]

Yes, because on a public forum with hundreds of thousands of people, my post was for your eyes only. Twatsicle.

Did you forget you addressed it specifically to me? Probably so, ya dope. But if you've been following my comments at all, which is probably not the case, I think the American people are like a bunch of sheep. Most people are, actually, the world over. So seeing polls like this is no surprise to me whatsoever.

 

[Disgustipated]

Did you forget you addressed it specifically to me? Probably so, ya dope. But if you've been following my comments at all, which is probably not the case, I think the American people are like a bunch of sheep. Most people are, actually, the world over. So seeing polls like this is no surprise to me whatsoever.

Public forum, dipshit. Do you think Obama answered any of miles' hundreds of posts personally?

I'd be upset if I were you, too.

 

[toubab]

Public forum, dipshit. Do you think Obama answered any of miles' hundreds of posts personally?

I'd be upset if I were you, too.

Listen, dumbass, you addressed the post to me, and I answered it. Get the fuck over it. The polls you like don't upset me in the least. I think they're funny, for reasons I've previously explained here. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[Disgustipated]

Listen, dumbass, you addressed the post to me, and I answered it. Get the fuck over it. The polls you like don't upset me in the least. I think they're funny, for reasons I've previously explained here. Thanks for the laugh.

Apology accepted.

 

[toubab]

Apology accepted.

I probably shouldn't admit this to you, but you are funny sometimes. Sometimes.

 

[Adre]

Hillary Clinton holds a four-point lead over Donald Trump in Georgia, a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in nearly a quarter century, according to the results of an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll out Friday.


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-georgia-226711#ixzz4GTN0MYDB
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

 

[toubab]

I realize most people couldn't care less about the details of polling, polling methodology, or the internals of the USC/LA Times poll, but for those who find these things interesting, here you go:

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/