Is Japan Gonna Die?

[sr71plt]

Well, well, well.

 

[3113]

Tokyo (dpa) - Levels of radioactive materials detected in the sea near a stricken nuclear power station in north-eastern Japan rose to 1,850 times above normal, the government said Sunday.

Full story here.

 

[Handley_Page]

from "the Register"
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/31/fukushima_panic_breaks_completely_free_of_facts/page3.html


Meanwhile, followers of internet debate have been intrigued by the case of Josef Oehnen, an engineering prof at MIT who wrote an email to a relative in Japan explaining that there was no need to flee in panic due to the Fukushima situation following the quake.

This relative posted the email on a blog and it was subsequently viewed by millions, spreading the sensible, properly informed reassurance that was so lacking in the days following the quake. (We should remember that even in the case of Chernobyl – far less Fukushima – it is now well known that needless fear and stress caused far and away more health and economic damage than radiation possibly could).

Some minor details in the email subsequently turned out to be mistaken, but its broad thrust – that there was no need to worry – turned out to be entirely correct. The technical description of boiling water reactors, radioisotopes emitted from them etc, was very sound.

Nonetheless Oehnen was subsequently persecuted mercilessly by fearmongers, environmental zealots etc. Various journalists "discovered" that he is not a nuclear engineer, and took issue with his private statement to his cousin that "there was and will not be any significant release of radioactivity from the damaged Japanese reactors".

In fact Oehnen is not a nuclear engineer. He is something much better for the purposes of analysing disaster consequences, an expert on industrial risk. And in the atmosphere of hysterical fear amid which he wrote, his assertion that there would not be any significant radiation release looks very sound indeed – given that nobody at all, not even any worker at the plant, has yet suffered any measurable health consequences from radiation released at the site.

See also:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12860842

 

[LettersFromTatyana]

from "the Register"
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/31/fukushima_panic_breaks_completely_free_of_facts/page3.html


Meanwhile, followers of internet debate have been intrigued by the case of Josef Oehnen, an engineering prof at MIT who wrote an email to a relative in Japan explaining that there was no need to flee in panic due to the Fukushima situation following the quake.

This relative posted the email on a blog and it was subsequently viewed by millions, spreading the sensible, properly informed reassurance that was so lacking in the days following the quake. (We should remember that even in the case of Chernobyl – far less Fukushima – it is now well known that needless fear and stress caused far and away more health and economic damage than radiation possibly could).

Some minor details in the email subsequently turned out to be mistaken, but its broad thrust – that there was no need to worry – turned out to be entirely correct. The technical description of boiling water reactors, radioisotopes emitted from them etc, was very sound.

Nonetheless Oehnen was subsequently persecuted mercilessly by fearmongers, environmental zealots etc. Various journalists "discovered" that he is not a nuclear engineer, and took issue with his private statement to his cousin that "there was and will not be any significant release of radioactivity from the damaged Japanese reactors".

In fact Oehnen is not a nuclear engineer. He is something much better for the purposes of analysing disaster consequences, an expert on industrial risk. And in the atmosphere of hysterical fear amid which he wrote, his assertion that there would not be any significant radiation release looks very sound indeed – given that nobody at all, not even any worker at the plant, has yet suffered any measurable health consequences from radiation released at the site.

See also:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12860842

I know I always believe journalists who misspell the name of their expert, multiple times.


Dr. Oehmen has a new guest post up, "would I have believed myself," which can be found from his list of publications:

http://web.mit.edu/oehmen/www/

Or on this link:

http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/29/would-i-have-believed-myself/

Point two on the list:

"2. Trustworthiness of the author (Trust)
a. Past experience in the field. Is the author an authority in the field? Google clears that one up pretty quickly, certainly not. -1 point."

He ends up giving himself four out of ten points. That's fair, I think.

 

[JackLuis]

Holy Crap!

Japan nuclear struggle focuses on cracked reactor pit

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese officials grappling on Sunday to end the world's worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl were focusing on a crack in a concrete pit that was leaking radiation into the ocean from a crippled reactor.

Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) said it had found a crack in the pit at its No.2 reactor in Fukushima, generating readings 1,000 millisieverts of radiation per hour in the air inside the pit.

I think that's pretty bad.

Operators of the plant are no closer to regaining control of damaged reactors, as fuel rods remain overheated and high levels of radiation are flowing into the sea.

Radiation 4,000 times the legal limit has been detected in seawater near the Daiichi plant and a floating tanker was to be towed to Fukushima to store contaminated seawater. But until the plant's internal cooling system is reconnected radiation will flow from the plant.

 

[Handley_Page]

Those thinking about Nuclear fuel as a bad thing might like to read this, written by a physicist at Oxford Uni:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12860842

Personally, I was raised in the time when "Nuclear Energy" was the future. "There's a lot of energy in a glass of water" was one phrase, and ZETA (Zero Energy Thermo-nuclear Assembly) was going to show it could be done. It didn't, but it gave a few tantalising clues.

I don't rate this junk about Wind & wave power in any but the most extreme places. The wind turbines just begin to pay for themselves and need replacing. Wave power prevents shipping in the right place (so far, anyway). I fear that a lot more work on the subject is needed.

Of course, there will be some parts of the planet where photo-voltaic (less than 2% efficient conversion at present) generation might be usefully employed, but I fear these are well away from centres of population.

 

[JackLuis]

Holy Radioactive Crap!

Japan nuke plant dumps radioactive water into sea

TOKYO — Workers began pumping more than 3 million gallons of contaminated water from Japan's tsunami-ravaged nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, freeing storage space for even more highly radioactive water that has hampered efforts to stabilize the reactors.

The less-radioactive water that officials are purposely dumping into the sea is up to 500 times the legal limit for radiation.

"We think releasing water with low levels of radiation is preferable to allowing water with high levels of radiation to be released into the environment," said Junichi Matsumoto, an official with plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co.

Well if it's only 500 times the limit, shouldn't make the abalone glow too brightly.

 

[3113]

Well if it's only 500 times the limit, shouldn't make the abalone glow too brightly.

 

[Verdad]

Fukushima has been upgraded to level 7.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/japan-raises-fukushima-nuclear-crisis-to-highest-level-7-12042011/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13048916

No need to argue about “yes, but that still doesn't make it identical to Chernobyl.” True, it doesn't. Just thought to put it here if anyone interested missed it.

 

[trysail]

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...eactor-building-for-first-time-since-disaster

Workers Enter Japanese Reactor Building For First Time Since Disaster
May 5, 2011
by Mark Memmott

"A team of workers has entered the Reactor Number One building at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant for the first time since the hydrogen explosion the day after the March 11th earthquake and tsunami," NHK reports...


...Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of the Fukushima plant, has said the tsunami that wrecked critical power and cooling systems there was at least 46 feet (14 meters) high.

It said radioactivity inside the No. 1 reactor building has fallen to levels deemed safe for people wearing protective suits to enter after workers rapidly installed air filtering equipment Thursday — their first entry since shortly after the tsunami. Workers are to begin preparations as early as Sunday to install a cooling system...

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=134379347

 

[sr71plt]

Thank-you commercials have been running on TV here from Japan to the people of the United States for the assistance they've given. I thought that was a nice touch.

 

[trysail]

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=antzW1bgTuBU


Tepco Says Fuel Rods at Fukushima Reactor Are Fully Exposed
By Michio Nakayama and Tsuyoshi Inajima

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo Electric Power Co. said fuel rods are fully exposed in the No. 1 reactor at its stricken Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant, setting back the utility’s plan to resolve the crisis.

The water level is 1 meter (3.3 feet) below the base of the fuel assembly, Junichi Matsumoto, a general manager at the utility known as Tepco, told reporters at a briefing in Tokyo. Melted fuel has dropped to the bottom of the pressure vessel and is still being cooled, Matsumoto said. The company doesn’t know how long the rods have been exposed, he said.

Tepco is trying to contain the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl after a quake and tsunami two months ago knocked out power and cooling systems at the Fukushima station. The utility planned to flood the No. 1 containment chamber, which surrounds the reactor vessel, in a procedure known as water entombment to prevent fuel from overheating.

“I’ve been saying from the beginning the water tomb plan won’t work,” said Tadashi Narabayashi, a professor of nuclear engineering at Hokkaido University. “Tepco must work on a water circulation cooling system as soon as possible. They’ve been going round and round in circles and now realize this is what they need to do.”

It’s unlikely the situation has worsened with the discovery the rods are exposed because they’ve probably been out of the water since shortly after the crisis started, Narabayashi said.

more...
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=antzW1bgTuBU

 

[trysail]

Quantifying the Fukushima reactor leak with atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide

From the University of California – San Diego



http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/...reactor-leak-with-atmospheric-sulfur-dioxide/