January 2016 Poll: USA President Prediction

[YDB95]

I think this is lots of wishful thinking.

Kind of like Democrats and Chris Christie's "Bridgegate".

Turns out we didn't need Bridgegate to neutralize Christie. The fact that he didn't hate GLBTs enough and he once treated Obama with respect was enough to sink him.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

Satire article on Trump, trying to get forced out so he can go back to TV:

"Let’s review,” Trump said. “I said that Megyn Kelly was menstruating. I insulted Carly Fiorina’s face. I did a routine about Ben Carson’s belt that should have provoked a psychiatric intervention. I proposed internment camps for the Muslims already here, and then I said that we should bar all other Muslims from entering the country. And you’re telling me that my numbers are what?”


“The highest ever,” Jeff said, dropping behind a club chair as a platinum blow-dryer shot past him.

Trump wandered over to the window. “We have a serious problem,” he said, almost not eating the pizza. “I might win.”

 

[Sean Renaud]

That's the reality we live in.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

12/12/15:

PredictWise Presidential Candidate

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

Hillary Clinton 58 %

Marco Rubio 16 %

Donald Trump 9 %

Ted Cruz 6 %

Jeb Bush 5 %

Chris Christie 3 %

Bernie Sanders 2 %

One month later...

Hillary Clinton 54 % (-4%)

Marco Rubio 13 % (-3%)

Donald Trump 13 % (+4%)

Bernie Sanders 9 % (+7%)

Ted Cruz 6 % (same)

Jeb Bush 3 % (-2%)

Chris Christie 1 % (-2%)

 

[Sean Renaud]

Go Bernie Go!

 

[Beco]

Go Bernie Go!

Get ready for the Trump Presidency......

can't stop it!

 

[Sean Renaud]

Oh I have no fear of a Trump presidency at all, not any more than I fear a the Ishmael/Miles take over. Some things simply cannot happen.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

Updated today.

Seems to be at major odds with polling.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

On the other hand, the Democratic endorsements have few surprises.

 

[Beco]

A funny thing happened between mid-December and now. When everyone went into holiday slumber, Hillary Clinton was sailing high; Bernie Sanders, after shocking most observers with his impressive popularity, seemed to have plateaued around 30 percent. Now, in the homestretch as the Iowa caucuses (February 1) and New Hampshire primary (February 9) draw closer, the race is getting tighter.

 

[Sean Renaud]

If Bernie wins I officially believe the conspiracy theory that Hillary's job is simply lightning rod and she'llbe back in 2024 to scare everybody.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

If Bernie wins I officially believe the conspiracy theory that Hillary's job is simply lightning rod and she'llbe back in 2024 to scare everybody.

Nah.
She'll be 77.

It's now or never.

 

[Sean Renaud]

And that'll stop her from scaring irrational people how? We're talking the people who I kid you not were scared ghost Reagan would make Romney look bad.

Besides people average into their 80's and rich people older than that.

 

[Liar]

Turns out we didn't need Bridgegate to neutralize Christie. The fact that he didn't hate GLBTs enough and he once treated Obama with respect was enough to sink him.

Nah, that's not what sunk him. He was supposed to be the no nonsens, tell it like it is, cut through the bullshit candidate with boisterous charm and centrist blue collar appeal. And then the Donald came in and sucked all the air out of the room.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

And that'll stop her from scaring irrational people how? We're talking the people who I kid you not were scared ghost Reagan would make Romney look bad.

Besides people average into their 80's and rich people older than that.

Was he in the empty chair?

 

[Sean Renaud]

No, we were gonna use science to raise the dead.

 

[Beco]

Nah.
She'll be 77.

It's now or never.

I vote for never....

 

[RUlookingup]

Trump 2016

 

[ishtat]

Rubio has a chance against Clinton. Trump has upset too many minorities, though against Clinton he would pull a surprising number of white working class votes.

Whoever lines up, the black vote will be way down. Dunno about the Hispanics.

Oddly enough I reckon Clinton could cope with Trump but I think either Rubio or Bush could give her a tough run. Cruz is smart but doesn't appeal to a broad enough base.

My safest bet at this stage is for the lowest % voter turnout ever - whoever runs.

 

[Jessie_Pinkman]

Sarah Palin Endorses Donald Trump, Rallying Conservatives

Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice-presidential nominee who became a Tea Party sensation and a favorite of grass-roots conservatives, will endorse Donald J. Trump in Iowa on Tuesday, officials with his campaign confirmed.

YES!

(Drops microphone on the stage, and struts off)

 

[AlexVega]

I'm sorry but America needs someone like Trump to undo so many of the Obama wrongs.

The pendulum swung too far to the left. Now the question is, what happens if the unthinkable happens and Hillary or Bernie get into power.

 

[Beco]

Gates: 'Odds Are High' Russia, China, Iran Accessed Hillary's Unsecure Server
Guy Benson | Jan 22, 2016

Special Access Programs (SAP) is a game changer. It is now undeniably clear that the results of the FBI investigation will be the end of one of two things: Hillary’s bid for the White House or the legitimacy of the FBI—at least when it comes to prosecuting cases on the mishandling of classified material...First, when imagery that is classified SECRET//NOFORN (no foreign national) is viewed, regardless of the absence of classification markings, it is distinctly evident. Second, any documents that contain or reference HUMINT is always classified SECRET, and if specific names of sources or handlers are mentioned, they are at a minimum SECRET//NOFORN. Third, SIGINT is always classified at the TS level. It’s not uncommon for some SI to be downgraded and shared over SECRET mediums, however, it is highly unlikely that a Secretary of State would receive downgraded intelligence. Finally, SAP intelligence has been discovered on Clinton’s private server, and many are now calling this the smoking gun. SAP is a specialized management system of additional security controls designed to protect SAR or Special Access Required. SAR has to do with extremely perishable operational methods and capabilities, and only selected individuals who are “read on” or “indoctrinated” are permitted access to these programs. The mishandling of SAP can cause catastrophic damage to current collection methods, techniques and personnel. In other words, if you have worked with classified material for more than a day, it seems highly implausible that someone could receive any of the aforementioned over an un-secure medium without alarm bells sounding. However, reading about a Special Access Program on an unclassified device would make anyone even remotely familiar with intelligence mess their pantsuit.

 

[Aglaopheme]

As of the 22nd on five thirty eight

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 49% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.



According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Bernie Sanders has a 57% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 46% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/

 

[Boxlicker101]

As of the 22nd on five thirty eight

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 49% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.



According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Bernie Sanders has a 57% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 46% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-republican/

The odds on Hillary in IA seem too high and the odds on Bernie in NH seem too low.

This is one day earlier: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/polit...clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/

 

[sr71plt]

I can wait to see what happens--actually I can wait until Super Tuesday, because Iowa and New Hampshire are both anomaly states. Since I'm not rah rah for much of anyone, and because this may be the first election where the parties manage to toss out all contenders now vying for the nomination and come up with someone else by November, I have no trouble in sitting back and watching.

As far as this forum, despite all of the huffing and puffing on Trump, the poll in this thread pretty much shows that the center of opinion is strongly elsewhere.