Orban defeated, concedes election

[GuiltyCowboy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043419672029110426

"The soon to be Prime Minister of Hungary, Péter Magyar is against foreign migration, against sending Aid to Ukraine, & supports rule of law.

Hungarians Hungarians aren’t losing a strongman, they’re gaining one. aren’t losing a strongman, they’re gaining one."

Why are you sharing grammatically incoherent gibberish?

He’s against ‘foreign migration’? Is he really - he’s against people outside Hungary moving about? And what is ‘Aid’ in the middle of a sentence? Why isn’t there a comma after Magyar? And why do you call them Hungarians Hungarians? Most people have no trouble understanding what you mean just by using the word once, you realize.

And that’s not even addressing the fact this weirdo calls himself Bryce M. Lipscomb and doesn’t understand that strongmen don’t support the rule of law: why, exactly, does he think they’re called strongmen?

This is village idiot material.

 

[Cogan]

What happens to Hungary post-Orban? The new guy is really not very different.

I have no idea what will happen to Hungary post Orban. I know he will free the press again and take away the laws against HBTQ people.
But outside Hungary it will be a difference. He is not a fan of Putin, he likes the EU and the money to Ukraine that Orban stopped will probably be on its way soon.

 

[Cogan]

Has Putin reacted to this?

Yes, and he is not happy.

 

[MajorRewrite]

"The soon to be Prime Minister of Hungary, Péter Magyar is against foreign migration, against sending Aid to Ukraine, & supports rule of law.

The ouster of Trump’s and Putin’s best buddy is a win for the EU, which the new guy supports.

 

[GuiltyCowboy]

This is a rejection of Putin and President Pig messing in Hungarian politics. The Pig's political endorsement has become a kiss of death, domestically and internationally.

I don’t think it has much to do with Americans to be honest. Magyar played up the question of whether Hungary was ‘east or west’ - knowing of course that Hungarians see themselves as part of Europe - but his victory was a lot more about 16 years of corruption and economic mismanagement than it was about Trump and Vance.

Which is good news for America, actually. Provides an example of people not accepting corruption and mediocrity.

How Magyar de-Orbanizes Hungary’s institutions will also be of particular interest to Americans - given that this is a process they will hopefully be undergoing themselves in the near future.

 

[coati]

I don’t think it has much to do with Americans to be honest. Magyar played up the question of whether Hungary was ‘east or west’ - knowing of course that Hungarians see themselves as part of Europe - but his victory was a lot more about 16 years of corruption and economic mismanagement than it was about Trump and Vance.

Which is good news for America, actually. Provides an example of people not accepting corruption and mediocrity.

How Magyar de-Orbanizes Hungary’s institutions will also be of particular interest to Americans - given that this is a process they will hopefully be undergoing themselves in the near future.

Putin and Trump are trying to undermine NATO. It is very encouraging to see their influence being dismissed by voters.

 

[SkyBubble]

The ouster of Trump’s and Putin’s best buddy is a win for the EU, which the new guy supports.

It is not. He is to the right of Orban. He will not follow the EeeeU's open immigration rules.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043457028463763456

 

[SkyBubble]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043457028463763456

Lots of weird takes on the Hungarian election result from both left and right here.

Peter Magyar is a socially conservative immigration restrictionist who wants to cut taxes and double the defence budget. He criticized Orban for admitting too many guest workers, and wants to increase Hungary's already generous pro-natal incentives.

On virtually every issue, his platform is well to the right of centre, by European standards.

His foreign policy is to end Orban's alliance with Putin, remove the Hungarian veto on EU loans to Ukraine, normalize relations with the European Union while opposing more Euro integration, and strengthen relations with Eastern Europe's anti-Russian governments, e.g. Poland.

His election was not a sudden shift to the left, but a rejection of Orban's corruption, the failure of his interventionist / statist economic policies, and the humiliation of his relationship with Putin.

 

[MajorRewrite]

It is not. He is to the right of Orban. He will not follow the EeeeU's open immigration rules.

You seem quite agitated that Putin’s boy Orban lost.

Hungarian election winner Magyar vows to rebuild EU relationship

 

[ll74]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043457028463763456

Lots of weird takes on the Hungarian election result from both left and right here.

Peter Magyar is a socially conservative immigration restrictionist who wants to cut taxes and double the defence budget. He criticized Orban for admitting too many guest workers, and wants to increase Hungary's already generous pro-natal incentives.

On virtually every issue, his platform is well to the right of centre, by European standards.

His foreign policy is to end Orban's alliance with Putin, remove the Hungarian veto on EU loans to Ukraine, normalize relations with the European Union while opposing more Euro integration, and strengthen relations with Eastern Europe's anti-Russian governments, e.g. Poland.

His election was not a sudden shift to the left, but a rejection of Orban's corruption, the failure of his interventionist / statist economic policies, and the humiliation of his relationship with Putin.

Magyar has promised to bring back the independence of the media and the courts. He has also promised to shift away from Russia and towards the west. If he can restore these positions, even a little bit, this is a definite positive for the country.

Additionally, moving away from having any leader in place for such a long time, would also be a positive.

 

[SkyBubble]

You seem quite agitated that Putin’s boy Orban lost.

Hungarian election winner Magyar vows to rebuild EU relationship

Not in the least. From what I know of Magyar, I like him.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Um, the new guy is still right wing (obviously more center right than Orban), and he did NOT campaign on boycotting or sanctioning Israel.

I suspect not much will change with regards to Israel…

Ukraine will likely benefit however.

We'll see. Italy has circumvented the EU and already imposed a 100% embargo on all imports and exports to Apartheid Israel (the race-specific death penalty in Apartheid Israel was the last straw. Germany, once Israel's closest European ally, has publicly denounce the Zionist regime and is now publicly debating sanctions. Spain has put a semi-embargo on Zionist Israel and prohibited Israel from landing aircraft or publicly overflying sovereign air space.

Ukraine is the only country actively trading with Israel right now, mostly anti-drone technology since the Iranians destroyed Zionist Israel's state-of the-art anti-drone facility in western Israel.

If they EU follows through and recognizes a two-state Palestine, that will make every Israeli settlement in the West Bank illegal in the eyes of the majority of the world. You might recall racist Israel put a moratorium on all new settlements during the Obama administration then went into overdrive when Trump was first elected. They slowed down when Biden took office, but ramped up once again when Trump's second regime began.

 

[GuiltyCowboy]

He is to the right of Orban.

You don’t seem to understand that political ideologies have built-in dynamics that make them shift over time. Conservatism and the ‘right’ leads to more and more inequality - which then necessitates a stronger security apparatus to clamp down on dissent and the forces of anti-corruption.

You can try to argue with this on an ideological level but, in return, I will just point to reality and the state of the world: the right wing project that properly kicked off in the west in the 1980s has lead irrefutably to worsening inequality which has lead irrefutably to more authoritarians which has lead irrefutably to more corruption and more war in the world.

That’s why you have to keep such a close eye on conservatives and the center-right. They never seem to understand this basic dynamic.

Anyway, Magyar is not ‘to the right’ of Orban because he’s in favor of helping families and making the military effective. The left is also in favor of helping families and effective militaries.

The reason he is not to the right of Orban is because he understands the world is inter-dependent and that the rule of law provides stability and economic growth. This is what people are celebrating. Nobody is confused about this.

The right today is about believing in the myth of independence - hence the strong man foreign policies that are proving themselves to be so embarrassingly ineffective - and capturing democracy’s institutions to protect the corrupt and the criminal.

That’s not Magyar.

 

[73Seahawks]

I have no idea what will happen to Hungary post Orban. I know he will free the press again and take away the laws against HBTQ people.
But outside Hungary it will be a difference. He is not a fan of Putin, he likes the EU and the money to Ukraine that Orban stopped will probably be on its way soon.

What's to stop Orban from plotting to win the Presidency?

 

[Cogan]

What's to stop Orban from plotting to win the Presidency?

What?

 

[RobDownSouth]

What's to stop Orban from plotting to win the Presidency?

Had the margin of victory been close, I have no doubt that Orban would have actively attempted a Trump-ish "I actually won" narrative.

The final margin of victory (what was it? 72-28 against him?) made him realize he could no longer rule effectively.

That's why.

 

[Wilson23]

He criticized Orban for admitting too many guest workers, and wants to increase Hungary's already generous pro-natal incentives.

See, that's the kind of idiocy that happens when people confuse the NATION with the BLOOD.

 

[SkyBubble]

You don’t seem to understand that political ideologies have built-in dynamics that make them shift over time. Conservatism and the ‘right’ leads to more and more inequality - which then necessitates a stronger security apparatus to clamp down on dissent and the forces of anti-corruption.

You can try to argue with this on an ideological level but, in return, I will just point to reality and the state of the world: the right wing project that properly kicked off in the west in the 1980s has lead irrefutably to worsening inequality which has lead irrefutably to more authoritarians which has lead irrefutably to more corruption and more war in the world.

That’s why you have to keep such a close eye on conservatives and the center-right. They never seem to understand this basic dynamic.

Anyway, Magyar is not ‘to the right’ of Orban because he’s in favor of helping families and making the military effective. The left is also in favor of helping families and effective militaries.

The reason he is not to the right of Orban is because he understands the world is inter-dependent and that the rule of law provides stability and economic growth. This is what people are celebrating. Nobody is confused about this.

The right today is about believing in the myth of independence - hence the strong man foreign policies that are proving themselves to be so embarrassingly ineffective - and capturing democracy’s institutions to protect the corrupt and the criminal.

That’s not Magyar.

This is simply ideologically-driven BS. You are showing again that you don't know what you're talking about..

 

[GuiltyCowboy]

This is simply ideologically-driven BS. You are showing again that you don't know what you're talking about..

Alright then. What's your explanation for why all the authoritarians that have emerged in (mostly Western) democracies over the last 20-30 years are all right-wing...Bolsanaro, Trump, Netanyahu, Erdogan, Orban, Putin, Milei et al?

 

[Wilson23]

Alright then. What's your explanation for why all the authoritarians that have emerged in (mostly Western) democracies over the last 20-30 years are all right-wing...Bolsanaro, Trump, Netanyahu, Erdogan, Orban, Putin, Milei et al?

That happened because LW authoritarians had lost their cred.

 

[Wilson23]

 

[GuiltyCowboy]

If you really want to know how to topple a genuine dictator, I highly recommend a book called Blueprint For Revolution.

It’s written by a guy called Popovic, who was one of the student leaders in Serbia who successfully ousted Milosevic.

There aren’t many people in the world today who can say they’ve successfully taken their countries from a dictatorship to a democracy.

It’s a practical guide and full of case studies and tactics.

 

[Wilson23]

If you really want to know how to topple a genuine dictator, I highly recommend a book called Blueprint For Revolution.

It’s written by a guy called Popovic, who was one of the student leaders in Serbia who successfully ousted Milosevic.

There aren’t many people in the world today who can say they’ve successfully taken their countries from a dictatorship to a democracy.

It’s a practical guide and full of case studies and tactics.

How did they do it in Serbia?

 

[GuiltyCowboy]

How did they do it in Serbia?

Ask and you shall receive...

(I actually had these notes in a file somewhere. It took me zero effort to share. And so you are free to make zero effort to read).

Dream big, start small:
- win small battles you know you can win, build confidence and reputation for getting shit done, celebrate victories
- make it very easy for people to join and contribute
- pick something that everyone cares about: win over a large audience
- draw a line down the paper: who stands with you, who does not?

Have a vision of tomorrow:
- concrete things that are imaginable
- the people who are blocking the vision should find a way to see themselves thriving in the vision
- ask what people want? Make the cause personally important to people.
- Bring in the elderly, who have time and experience (and a love of their grandchildren)

Attack and separate the pillars of power:
- don't fight your opponents at their strengths (dictators are better at violence and intimidation for example)
- undermine what enables their strength (investment, tourist dollars etc.)
- make the situation they benefit from not-normal - people will accept authoritarianism and corruption, for example, as long as regular life (marriage, parking tickets, renting an apartment) continues to be subject to the rule of law and proceeds smoothly.
- Even the policeman bashing in your head is only happy to do so because it's part of a steady job, that pays overtime, and lets him go home in the evening and play with his kids.
- And the support dictators receive from the corrupt oligarchs is dependent on those oligarchs making money: undermine the economic pillars and you split that bond between oligarchs and dictators - both have less money to maintain their power and neither needs the other anymore.
- So, if you can undermine their ability to keep life normal, you can undermine everything
- the power that some humans enjoy is always dependent on other humans doing what they want them to do: when that stops, their power very quickly evaporates. Attack those pillars of support. Stop people from consenting, from acquiescing.
- the pillars of support for corporations are stockholders and business media.

Use Laughtivism:
- create lose-lose situations for authorities: make them look ridiculous for policing kissing, slow driving, taking TVs for a walk...
- activity has very low barrier to entry for potential supporters
- get publicity, use the police as props (especially for clean up)
- pop pretentiousness of dictators, and shows that many are against the few
- makes them uncool
- make sure there is no organizer to arrest
- ironic celebration (and overdoing it) of the thing you want to undermine (eg cheering neo-nazis on their marches)
- Simple, everyday props become an ally: pro-democracy people carry oranges

Make oppression backfire:
- make authorities go too far (with their strength: which is violence usually) to make more people turn against them
- Dictators aren't interested in fear itself: they value the obedience that fear gets them
- people always choose to obey
- stop the fear and you undermine the decision to obey
- Authorities use the threat more than the reality - and if people can handle the reality (of being arrested, for example) then the threat becomes ineffective.
- Make getting arrested cool
- clog up the systems of control with overwhelming communication - from grannies, neighbors, good people.
- Make bad behavior personal: state facts plainly in public where those people's wives, friends, and families will see it (but make it non-political or contentious: eg 'this man is a bully', 'why is this man beating our children?'). Make them and their people feel the social consequences of their behavior.
- use names, addresses, phone numbers etc. in order to show that the people who are ruining the lives of others live within the community
- ultimately, weaken people's support systems, their normality, their facade of respectability.
- think right to left: who do you need to come to your side? And figure out what those people would disapprove of and make the powers crack down hard on something fun, silly, innocent to push those people to your side.
- people do not go to the barricades because something is bad: they only do it when something is unfair or wrong. make your enemies do something unfair.
- Always make the exercise of power come with a cost. And keep raising the price.
- the exercise of power takes manpower, time and money - and these are finite.

Unity:
- a unified, simple message is essential: "he's finished" or "this is the year"
- unified opposition
- you need organizational unity - clear leaders and structure to manage the various factions that will vie for control
- build into your movement the duty to respect others (religion, class, ethnicity etc) - to the extent that you help them exercise their culture (and don't just tolerate it)
- go out and find out what people want in their lives - connect with them. Don't assume they'll immediately side with you.
- People might like your ideas in general but not feel welcome with the type of person you represent. You need to work at being relatable.
- Bring diverse people together over things that everyone does: cooking and eating, for example. Create new constituencies. Don't exclude with rhetoric, symbolism, style, culture. Unite through the things that cross across those differences.
- Ultimately, unity is about creating a community.
- Beware of using celebs who all appeal to the same group. And don't tie yourself to one figure, as that person can be killed, co-opted, make missteps, be imprisoned.

Planning:
- marching should be considered as a kind of victory lap after all the work has been done and the goals (mostly) achieved.
- leaflets and educating, street theater, small victories...after you've laid the groundwork, then you can go big.
- you will quickly lose any kind of unity or organizational coherence if you manage to get lots of people on the street at the start (and your opponents will misrepresent you with agitators, bad faith actors etc.)
- Identify your goose egg: it's likely the establishment of something, not the overthrow of something - ie Democratic norms, not the end of a dictator's reign. Punishing, humiliating, sidelining etc may all be emotionally satisfying, but that's not the goose egg.
- Start with 1) a grand strategy (overall conception that serves to coordinate all available and appropriate resources), then formulate 2) a strategy (whether, when, and how to fight to achieve maximum effectiveness) and finally deploy 3) your tactics (immediate action, requiring on the ground knowledge and flexibility to abandon or adapt plans in the moment). Do not confuse tactics with strategy. They are separate things, requiring separate skills and thinking.
- Momentum is key: always plan on moving ahead, never play defense, never wait for the other side, always think ahead and make move after move. Don't bore people, don't lose their attention, don't ask too much.
- Never give in to violence.

Finish What You Started:
- The aim is to bring people over to your side: even the people whose first instinct is to bash your head in (or at least the people who have been paid to do that). Always behave in a way that makes people want to join your side and not oppose you.
- To be appealing, use attractive young women at the front of demonstrations, give out flowers, use great music, have cool t-shirts, combine young children with grandparents.
- Get the pillars of power to unite behind your vision. And if not to help, then at least to not get in the way. (let powerbrokers have their cake and eat it: as long as they don't prevent you from doing what you want, they can stay silent and enjoy the success if it works out, and they're not connected to it if it fails).
- Political progress is on on-going process. It is especially important after elections, to make sure that any successes are consolidated and put into effect properly. Unity must be maintained. There must be no chance that any remnants of the old faction destabilize the new system, make it ineffective, try to step into a power vacuum themselves.
- You need a plan, people, a structure to work on the boring, diligent stuff after all the fun parts.

 

[Wilson23]

Ask and you shall receive...

(I actually had these notes in a file somewhere. It took me zero effort to share. And so you are free to make zero effort to read).

Dream big, start small:
- win small battles you know you can win, build confidence and reputation for getting shit done, celebrate victories
- make it very easy for people to join and contribute
- pick something that everyone cares about: win over a large audience
- draw a line down the paper: who stands with you, who does not?

Have a vision of tomorrow:
- concrete things that are imaginable
- the people who are blocking the vision should find a way to see themselves thriving in the vision
- ask what people want? Make the cause personally important to people.
- Bring in the elderly, who have time and experience (and a love of their grandchildren)

Attack and separate the pillars of power:
- don't fight your opponents at their strengths (dictators are better at violence and intimidation for example)
- undermine what enables their strength (investment, tourist dollars etc.)
- make the situation they benefit from not-normal - people will accept authoritarianism and corruption, for example, as long as regular life (marriage, parking tickets, renting an apartment) continues to be subject to the rule of law and proceeds smoothly.
- Even the policeman bashing in your head is only happy to do so because it's part of a steady job, that pays overtime, and lets him go home in the evening and play with his kids.
- And the support dictators receive from the corrupt oligarchs is dependent on those oligarchs making money: undermine the economic pillars and you split that bond between oligarchs and dictators - both have less money to maintain their power and neither needs the other anymore.
- So, if you can undermine their ability to keep life normal, you can undermine everything
- the power that some humans enjoy is always dependent on other humans doing what they want them to do: when that stops, their power very quickly evaporates. Attack those pillars of support. Stop people from consenting, from acquiescing.
- the pillars of support for corporations are stockholders and business media.

Use Laughtivism:
- create lose-lose situations for authorities: make them look ridiculous for policing kissing, slow driving, taking TVs for a walk...
- activity has very low barrier to entry for potential supporters
- get publicity, use the police as props (especially for clean up)
- pop pretentiousness of dictators, and shows that many are against the few
- makes them uncool
- make sure there is no organizer to arrest
- ironic celebration (and overdoing it) of the thing you want to undermine (eg cheering neo-nazis on their marches)
- Simple, everyday props become an ally: pro-democracy people carry oranges

Make oppression backfire:
- make authorities go too far (with their strength: which is violence usually) to make more people turn against them
- Dictators aren't interested in fear itself: they value the obedience that fear gets them
- people always choose to obey
- stop the fear and you undermine the decision to obey
- Authorities use the threat more than the reality - and if people can handle the reality (of being arrested, for example) then the threat becomes ineffective.
- Make getting arrested cool
- clog up the systems of control with overwhelming communication - from grannies, neighbors, good people.
- Make bad behavior personal: state facts plainly in public where those people's wives, friends, and families will see it (but make it non-political or contentious: eg 'this man is a bully', 'why is this man beating our children?'). Make them and their people feel the social consequences of their behavior.
- use names, addresses, phone numbers etc. in order to show that the people who are ruining the lives of others live within the community
- ultimately, weaken people's support systems, their normality, their facade of respectability.
- think right to left: who do you need to come to your side? And figure out what those people would disapprove of and make the powers crack down hard on something fun, silly, innocent to push those people to your side.
- people do not go to the barricades because something is bad: they only do it when something is unfair or wrong. make your enemies do something unfair.
- Always make the exercise of power come with a cost. And keep raising the price.
- the exercise of power takes manpower, time and money - and these are finite.

Unity:
- a unified, simple message is essential: "he's finished" or "this is the year"
- unified opposition
- you need organizational unity - clear leaders and structure to manage the various factions that will vie for control
- build into your movement the duty to respect others (religion, class, ethnicity etc) - to the extent that you help them exercise their culture (and don't just tolerate it)
- go out and find out what people want in their lives - connect with them. Don't assume they'll immediately side with you.
- People might like your ideas in general but not feel welcome with the type of person you represent. You need to work at being relatable.
- Bring diverse people together over things that everyone does: cooking and eating, for example. Create new constituencies. Don't exclude with rhetoric, symbolism, style, culture. Unite through the things that cross across those differences.
- Ultimately, unity is about creating a community.
- Beware of using celebs who all appeal to the same group. And don't tie yourself to one figure, as that person can be killed, co-opted, make missteps, be imprisoned.

Planning:
- marching should be considered as a kind of victory lap after all the work has been done and the goals (mostly) achieved.
- leaflets and educating, street theater, small victories...after you've laid the groundwork, then you can go big.
- you will quickly lose any kind of unity or organizational coherence if you manage to get lots of people on the street at the start (and your opponents will misrepresent you with agitators, bad faith actors etc.)
- Identify your goose egg: it's likely the establishment of something, not the overthrow of something - ie Democratic norms, not the end of a dictator's reign. Punishing, humiliating, sidelining etc may all be emotionally satisfying, but that's not the goose egg.
- Start with 1) a grand strategy (overall conception that serves to coordinate all available and appropriate resources), then formulate 2) a strategy (whether, when, and how to fight to achieve maximum effectiveness) and finally deploy 3) your tactics (immediate action, requiring on the ground knowledge and flexibility to abandon or adapt plans in the moment). Do not confuse tactics with strategy. They are separate things, requiring separate skills and thinking.
- Momentum is key: always plan on moving ahead, never play defense, never wait for the other side, always think ahead and make move after move. Don't bore people, don't lose their attention, don't ask too much.
- Never give in to violence.

Finish What You Started:
- The aim is to bring people over to your side: even the people whose first instinct is to bash your head in (or at least the people who have been paid to do that). Always behave in a way that makes people want to join your side and not oppose you.
- To be appealing, use attractive young women at the front of demonstrations, give out flowers, use great music, have cool t-shirts, combine young children with grandparents.
- Get the pillars of power to unite behind your vision. And if not to help, then at least to not get in the way. (let powerbrokers have their cake and eat it: as long as they don't prevent you from doing what you want, they can stay silent and enjoy the success if it works out, and they're not connected to it if it fails).
- Political progress is on on-going process. It is especially important after elections, to make sure that any successes are consolidated and put into effect properly. Unity must be maintained. There must be no chance that any remnants of the old faction destabilize the new system, make it ineffective, try to step into a power vacuum themselves.
- You need a plan, people, a structure to work on the boring, diligent stuff after all the fun parts.

Working Families Party, take note!