Picking your Santa number

[MissBri]

 

[matriarch]

I'm just glad no one has picked themselves yet.

I'm amazed. I wonder what the odds are on that, out of a group of 29??

Mathematicians??

Is it 29 to the power 29? In other words, all 29 people have 29 chances of choosing their own number. So.......29x29......29 times.

I don't have the patience to sit here and work it out on the calclater. Anyone care to do it for me??

Actually, no.......that's wrong.

To be accurate, each time one person chooses a number, the choice for the next person is reduced by one.....so it would probably be.....

29x29x28x27x26x25x24x23x22x21x20x19x18x17x16x15x14x13x12x11x10
x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 = 85,470,365,939,483,785,560,588,288,000,000

But, that seems a ridiculously large figure....should I be adding the numbers together, rather than multiplying them?? The first person has 29 chances, the second has 28, the third has 27........etc.....yes, I think its add, rather than multiply. That would come out at ....464 chances.

Now I'm completely intrigued. Any mathematicians around who can confirm or disparage my calculations????

 

[sophia jane]

I'm amazed. I wonder what the odds are on that, out of a group of 29??

Mathematicians??

Is it 29 to the power 29? In other words, all 29 people have 29 chances of choosing their own number. So.......29x29......29 times.

I don't have the patience to sit here and work it out on the calclater. Anyone care to do it for me??

Actually, no.......that's wrong.

To be accurate, each time one person chooses a number, the choice for the next person is reduced by one.....so it would probably be.....

29x29x28x27x26x25x24x23x22x21x20x19x18x17x16x15x14x13x12x11x10
x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 = 85,470,365,939,483,785,560,588,288,000,000

But, that seems a ridiculously large figure....should I be adding the numbers together, rather than multiplying them?? The first person has 29 chances, the second has 28, the third has 27........etc.....yes, I think its add, rather than multiply. That would come out at ....464 chances.

Now I'm completely intrigued. Any mathematicians around who can confirm or disparage my calculations????

Lmao. You're cute. And actually, it's a total of 30 because I messed up the first post, so it'll be even higher than that. Still hasn't happened yet either. Last year there were four or five people who did it. This year the only rearranging has been based on shipping restrictions.

 

[TxRad]

Kick me in for # 30

That's half my age and dead last......

 

[kendo1]

I'll go with 29.

I'm younger than him^.

 

[Skip1934a]

Is 28 available? I'll take it.

 

[Guest]

are supposed to say when we send the package who we are??

 

[sophia jane]

are supposed to say when we send the package who we are??

Last year most people wrote "Santa" on their return name or wrote no name at all. Obviously the return address narrows it down significantly but I think the names weren't revealed till package opening day.

 

[CrimsonMaiden]

Last year most people wrote "Santa" on their return name or wrote no name at all. Obviously the return address narrows it down significantly but I think the names weren't revealed till package opening day.

We put something inside with the gift telling who we are or we wait and announce it on a thread here?

 

[Guest]

Last year most people wrote "Santa" on their return name or wrote no name at all. Obviously the return address narrows it down significantly but I think the names weren't revealed till package opening day.

KEWL!!!

 

[sophia jane]

We put something inside with the gift telling who we are or we wait and announce it on a thread here?

I can't remember. Does anyone else remember how we did it? Or have suggestions?

 

[cloudy]

I can't remember. Does anyone else remember how we did it? Or have suggestions?

I put a note in mine, I believe, as did my santa (EL)

 

[Remec]

ok, that was just about the nicest thing you could have said. bonus points for you!!!

Hey, I was thinking it...I just didn't read the thread until now. *g*

 

[Remec]

Oh, and I'll take Number 1, please. Thank you very much.

 

[Alessia Brio]

I'll take the highest number still available, please.

 

[sophia jane]

I'll take the highest number still available, please.

That would be 26. (and go rest!)

 

[Explaura]

I'd like 25 please

 

[MagicaPractica]

18 would be my first choice, if not, I'd take 22, if not, just assign me something.

 

[fieryjen]

I'm amazed. I wonder what the odds are on that, out of a group of 29??

Mathematicians??

Is it 29 to the power 29? In other words, all 29 people have 29 chances of choosing their own number. So.......29x29......29 times.

I don't have the patience to sit here and work it out on the calclater. Anyone care to do it for me??

Actually, no.......that's wrong.

To be accurate, each time one person chooses a number, the choice for the next person is reduced by one.....so it would probably be.....

29x29x28x27x26x25x24x23x22x21x20x19x18x17x16x15x14x13x12x11x10
x9x8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 = 85,470,365,939,483,785,560,588,288,000,000

But, that seems a ridiculously large figure....should I be adding the numbers together, rather than multiplying them?? The first person has 29 chances, the second has 28, the third has 27........etc.....yes, I think its add, rather than multiply. That would come out at ....464 chances.

Now I'm completely intrigued. Any mathematicians around who can confirm or disparage my calculations????

So I've been thinking about this for a little while... keep in mind, I really suck at probability. But I believe it would come down to something like the following (using fractions)

You'd have to add all the probabilities of one person picking themselves down to all people picking themselves. This is best done by subtracting the probability of nobody picking themselves from one. The probability of nobody picking themselves is what is a little difficult to get at because everyone has a different number he or she cannot pick.

So the first person to pick has a 29/30 chance not to pick his/her own name. The next person might have a 28/29 chance, or 29 over 29 depending on whether the first person picks his/her name or not.

This is as far as I've gotten. Hope it is at least a little informative.

 

[matriarch]

I put a note in mine, I believe, as did my santa (EL)

As far asI can remember, I put a note in mine, and also my name and address on the parcel- which wasn't a problem, as my designate and I had already met in real life and knew each other's names. My santa put a note inside my parcel, but I think 'santa' and their real address on the outside. I think.

 

[keyala]

I've lost track of what was picked 'cause I'm too lazy to write it all down.

Umm...8? 9? 23? Honestly, just throw me in somewhere; I stink at things like this. Yes, that's right. I am unable to pick a number.

 

[English Lady]

I put a note in mine, I believe, as did my santa (EL)

yup, I put a note in mine *grins*

I have to put my return address on the outside, which will give me away I think *L*

 

[moonlight elf]

May I have 8, please?

 

[sophia jane]

The only numbers left are
22
15
10

If I don't hear from the last three people who need to pick by the end of the day, I'll just assign them via pm myself.

And STILL no one picked themselves (and no one will).

 

[Salvor-Hardon]

I think I have the math figured out....

First person was a 1 in 30 chance or 0.0333333...
and then the next is a 1 in 29 and so on down to last two people are a 1 in 2 chance.

I think

I did in Excel and it came out to be wildly huge but I think I am wrong somehow.