The Dow Is A Measure Of Inflation

[KingOrfeo]

So you have no interest at all, personally, now or in the future in an form of investment, but you wish to weigh in here?

Posting here is purely an intellectual enterprise, isn't it?

If you actually want to learn any of this start with basic economics then I would recommend a subscription to the WSJ.

For economics: start with Henry Hazlitt's excellent Economics in One Easy Lesson. I used to link the Amazon listing but here you can read it all for the economical price of free.

Double . Henry Hazlitt? If an Austrian-Schooler is your idea of a "real economist," you've got problems.

If you just want to argue for argument's sake about an area you have no actual training or experience in . . .

. . . then I am doing what this forum is for.

 

[Que]

"A September 2013 study by Rob Brown of United Capital Financial Advisors illustrates this. Brown found that historically, rising interest rates haven't necessarily caused stock prices to drop.

In his research, Brown looked at stock performance in 12-month periods since 1920 when interest rates had gone up the most. He left out periods during recessions to make the study more applicable to current economic expansion.

Brown found that stocks declined in only three out of the 16 periods of rising interest rates. What's more, the average return for the S&P 500 when rates climbed the most was 12.62% – slightly higher than the 12% return for all periods."


Facts are better than opinions in most cases.

...and you think that what you just posted is a "fact' and not an opinion based on very specific parameters- a 12 months period. What else was going on at the time? What other factors influenced prices?

Do you honestly think that if the Fed moved interest rates 2 points tomorrow, stocks would not tumble on the announcement? Even if they did move the interest rates two points and caused the tumble the actual nominal rates would still be historically low.

Interests rates, inflation debt instruments and equities are inter-related. They impact each-other, but to suggest there is no correlation to the change in interest rate and changes in the stock market's appeal is silly. Your cite is not even saying that. He is not speaking to a specific change in interest rate and how that affects the stock market he is talking about some sort of direct relationship between a given interest average rate range and a given level of stock market growth.

During the Carter years you had high interest, high inflation and stock-market growth.

High interest rates are to be expected in periods of high inflation. Those periods of high inflation should also have high inflation of the equities that are the stock market. What is under discussion here is the fact that the stock market is benefiting from low interest rates and the reason the Fed is not cooling it off with higher interest rates is because inflation appears relatively modest in all other areas. Real Estate, to name a pretty notable lagging sector.

Googling for confirmation bias is not going to help you here. You are arguing against basic economic principles.

 

[Que]

Posting here is purely an intellectual enterprise, isn't it?







Double . Henry Hazlitt? If an Austrian-Schooler is your idea of a "real economist," you've got problems.



. . . then I am doing what this forum is for.

Bring some intellectual and one might consider bothering.

Rolling ones eyes about something you have never read is not "intellectual"

And no, the forum or any forum does not "exist" for arguing about things you have no knowledge of. I will grant you that you get by with doing that a lot by posting salon articles and googliing for "cites' (meaning confirmation bias.) ...but the forum would do just fine if you stuck to areas that you actually know something about- whatever that might be.

Dismissing 1/2 of the entire body of knowledge in the art of economic forecasting when you have read none of it tells me a lot. I've read Keynes. As well as nearly all of his prominent apologists. Krugman has never taught me anything of value other than as a cautionary example of hubris, but I am still subjected to his presence and read most every word he writes. Mostly to roll my eyes which I can actually do having read more than just those I agree with.

How about this? Cherry pick a single paragraph from Hazlitt then issue your debunk of what it is he has to say about economics since you are so sure that Austrians no nothing of economics in the real world. Incidentally, that is how the Austrian School of economics came about. When it was evident that the models used in forecasting were failing abysmally because they fail to take into account the incentives that the average actual person in the described economic model might behave given changes in incentives. It is a dynamic way of looking at economics rather than assuming static assumptions that have to fail as things change for obvious reasons.

And if you think "rationalwikki" is an acceptable "CITE???!!??" I need never worry about having a "rational" discussion with a mindless, self-indoctrinated buffoon.

 

[KingOrfeo]

Bring some intellectual and one might consider bothering.

Fine, I'll give you a much better introduction to economics.

 

[KingOrfeo]

And if you think "rationalwikki" is an acceptable "CITE???!!??"

I've never yet caught them in an error. Remember, RationalWiki is not LW nor RW (and has some things to say against both), neither does it even aim or claim to be "neutral" like Wikipedia; it is devoted to rationality and science, wherever that may lead, and opposes all forms of pseudoscience, logically-fallacious thinking, crankery, woo and bullshit. What is your specific objection to it?

 

[RobDownSouth]

I've never yet caught them in an error. Remember, RationalWiki is not LW nor RW (and has some things to say against both), neither does it even aim or claim to be "neutral" like Wikipedia; it is devoted to rationality and science, wherever that may lead. What is your specific objection to it?

But....but....#TehNarrative!
Poor query....he tries soooo very hard....

 

[Que]

I've never yet caught them in an error. Remember, RationalWiki is not LW nor RW (and has some things to say against both), it is devoted to rationality and science, wherever that may lead. What is your specific objection to it?

I am AMAZED that when you run over to IrrationalWiki to garner some confirmation bias support for one of your indefensible positions....that they are so reliable and believable to YOU, who went there explicitly to confirm what you already "know."

So...If a regular Rush listener assures you that HE has never known Rush to be wrong, does that change your opinion of the messenger?

 

[KingOrfeo]

I am AMAZED that when you run over to IrrationalWiki to garner some confirmation bias support for one of your indefensible positions....that they are so reliable and believable to YOU, who went there explicitly to confirm what you already "know."

So...If a regular Rush listener assures you that HE has never known Rush to be wrong, does that change your opinion of the messenger?

No, no, you don't get to turn this around. What is your specific objection to RationalWiki?

 

[Que]

But....but....#TehNarrative!
Poor query....he tries soooo very hard....

Still no answer at all about your pile of derp on administration policy as it relates to increases in oil production, your support of his derp on inflation being related only to bonds, or your fiction about being a scholar on Renaissance politics?

I thought not.

Quite the little derp factory and distribution system this morning, aren't you?

 

[RobDownSouth]

No, no, you don't get to turn this around. What is your specific objection to RationalWiki?

He certainly uses the counter-example as one of his favorite responses when cornered....no matter how specious or tangentially related....
Poor query.....he tries sooooooo very hard...

 

[KingOrfeo]

. . . your support of his derp on inflation being related only to bonds . . .

Did Obama say that?

 

[Que]

No, no, you don't get to turn this around. What is your specific objection to RationalWiki?

This forum EXISTS to "turn it around." To use your last circumlocution.

You get to define the argument? Why? You clipped that bit out of my post and you want to argue THAT shit? No thank you.

No 'rational' poster assumes that a "rationalwiki" cite is an acceptable, neutral source. How far left do you have to be to believe that it is?

How about you about you close your eyes, pretend goggle does not exist and use your own, law school honed, big boy words to tell me why YOU believe that the Austrian School of Economics is crap?

I already used mine to explain the shortcomings of the Keynesians. You aren't even, technically, a Keynesnian because you do not even know enough about him and his approach to economic theory to explain what it is you are tring to say in your own words.

Dumping a steaming pile of Salon, or a steaming pile of RationalWiki is NOT engaging in reasoned, informed debate, counselor. You can perhaps supplement with a cite, but if you have to pull that shit out to make your opening and closing statement, you are a shit lawyer.

In short, since you have admitted that you do no investing, do not read about investing, have not studied investing, I am not the least bit interested in debunking any and all bullshit you can google for.

 

[Que]

Did Obama say that?

No the antecedent of the possessive pronoun "his" was actually you. I admit that my phrasing was inelegant in the interest of being concise, but do try to follow along with your own arguments.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Did Obama say that?

Probably not, given query's history of ascription.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Once again, we see the belligerent query attempt to redefine the discussion on terms more favorable to his position.
Poor query....he tries sooooooo hard....

 

[Que]

He certainly uses the counter-example as one of his favorite responses when cornered....no matter how specious or tangentially related....
Poor query.....he tries sooooooo very hard...

A counter example is not a valid rhetorical device, why? If it is not analogous or it is an invalid example, why would one not simply state that and why or rebut the counter example?

You really suck at 7th grade debate.

I bet you did great on the "which device is being used" part of the quiz and completely failed the essay portion didn't you?

Poor robbie...he tries soooooo very hard...no HOF love..maybe next year if he tries harder...

#TryHard
#AbysmalResults

 

[Que]

Once again, we see the belligerent query attempt to redefine the discussion on terms more favorable to his position.
Poor query....he tries sooooooo hard....

Is that anything at all like when King Oreo tried to derail a discussion about actual economics in a thread on economics into a discussion of why his bullshit cite is not acceptable instead of actually discussing the economic principles under discussion?

"But, But thats different..." BobsDownSouth canned response #6 of 27

 

[Que]

Probably not, given query's history of ascription.

#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain#AscriptionAgain #AscriptionAgain

 

[Adre]

We're all familiar with Querys legendary economic expertise. I personally can't wait for him to move on to annualized interest rates and legal avoidance of taxation in offshore accounts. With all this real world knowledge one could reasonably expect he has long ago retired to his villa on the Amalfi Coast. How is la dolce vita, Query?

 

[RobDownSouth]

We're all familiar with Querys legendary economic expertise. I personally can't wait for him to move on to annualized interest rates and legal avoidance of taxation in offshore accounts. With all this real world knowledge one could reasonably expect he has long ago retired to his villa on the Amalfi Coast. How is la dolce vita, Query?

His rambling discourses on the difference between monthly, quarterly and annual rates are the stuff of legend.
Poor query.....he tries soooooo hard.....

 

[JohnnySavage]

Y'all had better hope to hell the Fed keeps interest rates low. The average maturity on the Fed's debt instruments is about 7 years. If they have to roll that debt over at higher rates our budget is in big trouble.

 

[Que]

Y'all had better hope to hell the Fed keeps interest rates low. The average maturity on the Fed's debt instruments is about 7 years. If they have to roll that debt over at higher rates our budget is in big trouble.

Mr. Savage weighs in from the crowd with an interesting observation.....

That is time bomb of a completely different color. They cannot stay near zero forever can they?

Your point is quite valid. Making the problem worse: they have been retiring the long bonds and shifting a lot of the money into the short term bonds that they can control the rates on. The short term treasury auctions are getting to be a much larger proportion of the overall debt then they have ever been.

Used to be they wanted to get as much of that into long bonds as possible both for better rates and to make planning for the debt and administering the auctions easier.

 

[KingOrfeo]

No the antecedent of the possessive pronoun "his" was actually you.

What did I say about inflation being related to bonds?

 

[Que]

What did I say about inflation being related to bonds?

You are right once again! Always the keen eye for the details that actually matter to a discussion.

I apologize, it is hard to keep all the derp in their individual piles for correct attribution. I remembered Rob agreeing with your derp (true) about the bonds (not true.)

Turns out your derp was

"That would make the Dow a reverse measure of inflation, wouldn't it?"

Which Robbie agreed and amplified in an entirely new derpish direction:

"Actually, the bond market is a measure of inflation, not the stock market."

For a guy with a self-proclaimed intolerance for derp, Robbie sure agrees with and spouts a fair amount of it.

I apologize, once again, for the mis-attribution. I hope that clears that up so that you can get back to expounding (in your own words) your economic theories.

 

[KingOrfeo]

This forum EXISTS to "turn it around." To use your last circumlocution.

You get to define the argument? Why? You clipped that bit out of my post and you want to argue THAT shit? No thank you.

No 'rational' poster assumes that a "rationalwiki" cite is an acceptable, neutral source. How far left do you have to be to believe that it is?

How about you about you close your eyes, pretend goggle does not exist and use your own, law school honed, big boy words to tell me why YOU believe that the Austrian School of Economics is crap?

I already used mine to explain the shortcomings of the Keynesians. You aren't even, technically, a Keynesnian because you do not even know enough about him and his approach to economic theory to explain what it is you are tring to say in your own words.

Dumping a steaming pile of Salon, or a steaming pile of RationalWiki is NOT engaging in reasoned, informed debate, counselor. You can perhaps supplement with a cite, but if you have to pull that shit out to make your opening and closing statement, you are a shit lawyer.

In short, since you have admitted that you do no investing, do not read about investing, have not studied investing, I am not the least bit interested in debunking any and all bullshit you can google for.

What is your specific objection to RationalWiki?