The Economy

[MajorRewrite]

The Shrinking Dollar

The value of the dollar lost 9% in 2025 compared to other currencies (DXY index). It was the biggest decline in 30 years.

The dollar gained 7% in 2024 (also DXY index).

 

[briancamdudetenger2018]

Don't invest in the petroleum industry.

isnt that oil lol

 

[MajorRewrite]

Declining Manufacturing

US factory activity shrank in December

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index edged down to 47.9 from 48.2, according to data released Monday. The measure has been below 50, which indicates contraction, for 10 straight months.

Ooof.

 

[RobDownSouth]

Here in Houston, the price of gasoline has sold in a narrow band between $2.40 and $2.60 the first eleven and a half months of this year.

Christmas week, from roughly December 24th through December 31st, the prices of gasoline plummeted to between $2.06 and $2.10 per gallon. On January 2nd, it climbed right back up to around $2.37.

If I were a bit less skeptical of conspiracy theories, I'd suggest that Saudi Clown Prince Bonesaw played games to artificially lower the price of gasoline for one week in order to make it appear that Orange Julius Caesar™ "Kept his promise" to lower the price of gas for one brief shining moment......and that months from now mouth breathing knuckle draggers like Rightguide will point to the (artificially) low price of gasoline on January 1st 2026.

 

[Rightguide]

No wonder PrivateRewrite is hiding back here on the third page:

Dow Jones closes at record high with nearly 600-point gain after US makes moves on Venezuela​

The Dow Jones rose 595 points, or 1.2% to $48,977, while stocks in American oil companies like Chevron, which is the last remaining U.S. oil major in Venezuela, also closed at a high. Chevron gained 5% Monday.

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...600-point-gain-after-us-makes-moves-venezuela

 

[Wilson23]

No wonder PrivateRewrite is hiding back here on the third page:

Dow Jones closes at record high with nearly 600-point gain after US makes moves on Venezuela​

The Dow Jones rose 595 points, or 1.2% to $48,977, while stocks in American oil companies like Chevron, which is the last remaining U.S. oil major in Venezuela, also closed at a high. Chevron gained 5% Monday.

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...600-point-gain-after-us-makes-moves-venezuela

The performance of the stock market is never a good indicator of economic health.

 

[Rightguide]

The performance of the stock market is never a good indicator of economic health.

But when and if it goes south, you'll always use it to attack Donald Trump.

 

[samylove]

The book does draw parallels between then and now citing technology, market volatility and speculation more so around crypto. You may not like Ross-Sorkin but he does provide some interesting insights.

I think you'd have more fun with me tied over your toy in the middle of the living room https://ibb.co/FLTtTC8C

 

[MajorRewrite]

Anemic Hiring Rate in November

"Here's the key data: Hiring," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a post on X. "Hiring was anemic in November. The 3.2% hiring rate was one of the worst since the Great Recession era."

The number of job openings available dipped but remains above 7 million. It’s been basically flat since the middle of last year.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Protectionist policies are shrinking the trade deficit, as expected. Delayed data from October:

The trade gap narrowed 39.0% to $29.4 billion, the lowest level since June 2009, the Commerce ‌Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau said on Thursday.

• Imports decreased 3.2%
• Exports rose 2.6%
• Exports and imports of services both set records

 

[MajorRewrite]

Employment data: weak job growth in December, unemployment rate decreased in November.

The US economy added 50,000 positions in December, according to Labor Department data published Friday, amid broader concerns about 2025's cooling job market.

The unemployment rate declined to 4.4%, from 4.6% in November.

October and November jobs numbers were revised downward (remember when MAGA got so upset about downward revisions during the Biden administration?)

Revised data for November, meanwhile, showed a gain of 56,000 jobs rather than 64,000, while revised data for October showed a loss of 173,000 jobs compared to the earlier reported decline of 105,000.

The number of people working part-time who would rather work full-time increased 980,000 during 2025.

584,000 jobs created in 2025.
2,200,000 created in 2024.

 

[MajorRewrite]

The number of housing units started in October was the lowest since June of 2020 (pandemic).

 

[MajorRewrite]

Manufacturing employment continued its long slow decline in December. Down 68,000 since December 2024.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Summary of 2025 economy vs 2024 economy:

Unemployment rate
2024: 4.1%
2025: 4.4%

Jobs created:
2024: 2,200,000
2025: 584,000

Manufacturing employment (total, in December):
2024: 12,760,000
2025: 12,692,000

Value of the dollar (DXY index):
2024: up 7%
2025: down 9%

S&P 500:
2024: up 23%
2025: up 16%

Will update with more measures (like inflation) when the data is released.

 

[heathrowinneo]

No wonder PrivateRewrite is hiding back here on the third page:

Dow Jones closes at record high with nearly 600-point gain after US makes moves on Venezuela​

The Dow Jones rose 595 points, or 1.2% to $48,977, while stocks in American oil companies like Chevron, which is the last remaining U.S. oil major in Venezuela, also closed at a high. Chevron gained 5% Monday.

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...600-point-gain-after-us-makes-moves-venezuela

FYI, the stock market is not the economy

 

[Rightguide]

FYI, the stock market is not the economy

If it goes down, you'll use it to hammer the President.

 

[heathrowinneo]

If it goes down, you'll use it to hammer the President.

Not necessarily, they are two separate entities with one relying on data from the other.

If he decides to meddle with the Fed, continue his practice of pay for play, he might crash the market and economy all on his own just to say he could do it.

 

[DeluxAuto]

He is not well and we are fucked

 

[heathrowinneo]

He is not well and we are fucked

View attachment 2589243

More fuel to add for the 25th amendment argument. Hey congress, time to wake the fuck up.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Since “Liberation Day”, Canada has created more jobs than the US. (Source, another source)

The Petulant Man-Baby is going to throw a fit when he finds out. Maybe his handlers will keep it from him.

gOLdeN aGe

 

[MajorRewrite]

No wonder PrivateRewrite is hiding back here on the third page:

Dow Jones closes at record high with nearly 600-point gain after US makes moves on Venezuela​

The Dow Jones rose 595 points, or 1.2% to $48,977, while stocks in American oil companies like Chevron, which is the last remaining U.S. oil major in Venezuela, also closed at a high. Chevron gained 5% Monday.

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...600-point-gain-after-us-makes-moves-venezuela

S&P 500
2024: up 23%
2025: up 16%

Dow Jones Industrial Average
2024: up 12.88%
2025: up 12.67%

Markets are doing well, but not better than during the Biden administration. Certainly nothing to “hide” from.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Blue Collar Job Losses in 2025

America is losing jobs in blue-collar industries, something that last occurred during the initial shock of the early pandemic and the depths of the Great Recession. The country is down 65k industrial jobs over the last year, a dramatic reversal from 2024, when the US added a lower-than-usual but still respectable 250k jobs. A major slowdown has hit all blue-collar sectors this year, including construction, mining, and utilities—though manufacturing and transportation are driving the vast majority of US job losses.

In total, employment across trades and industry is now down 123k from the all-time peak reached in early 2025 and has been declining nearly every month since February. This is likely underselling the damage as well, since preliminary estimates for upcoming annual jobs data revisions suggest an additional loss of 100k manufacturing jobs and 30k construction jobs.

Residential construction contractors shed 55,000 jobs in 2025.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Workers Get the Shaft

US workers received 53.8% of GDP in the third quarter, the lowest share since records began in 1947

U.S. workers are taking home the smallest slice of GDP since records began in 1947, according to new federal data.

Numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the share of economic output paid to workers through wages and salaries dropped sharply in the third quarter of last year. The figure landed at 53.8%, marking the lowest level ever recorded in the modern data series tied to GDP.

The BLS defines labor share as “the percentage of economic output that accrues to workers in the form of compensation.” That includes wages, salaries, bonuses, and pension contributions. Despite solid GDP expansion, that percentage continued to fall.

GDP growth has been one thing Trump has claimed as an achievement. But it’s not helping workers.

The K-shaped economy in action.

 

[MajorRewrite]

The Economist magazine ranked national economic performance for 2025

The US ranked 17th out of 36 developed nations.

We have compiled data on five indicators—inflation, “inflation breadth”, GDP, jobs and stockmarket performance—for 36 mostly rich countries. We have ranked them according to how well they have done on each measure, creating an overall score of economic success in 2025. The table below shows the rankings.

 

[MajorRewrite]

Inflation report comes in cool ️

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday morning showed that on a "core" basis — which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy — consumer prices rose 0.2% over last month and 2.6% over last year.

The 2.6% increase in "core" CPI matches the rise reported in November.

It’s still higher than the target rate, but the stability is better than raging out of control.

Grocery price news wasn’t good, with increases way above the general rate of inflation …

The details of Tuesday's report showed inflation pressures on household food budgets remain notable, with the index for food rising 0.7% in December and outpacing overall price increases.

The BLS noted that 5 of the 6 major grocery store food groups — which includes grains, meat, dairy, fruits, drinks, and other food at home — saw prices rise on a monthly basis in December.