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The Economy

JFC. The MAGA sheep are so desperate for any shred of good economic news that they’re crowing about a slight uptick in a Consumer Confidence survey. 🤪

The graph still looks bad, but I’m glad the loons found something to cheer them up.
IMG_1459.png
 
You could buy 5 Chinese EVs for the average cost of 1 new vehicle in the US. The competition within China (over 100 companies) continues to push down prices.

 
MajorRewrite said:
PCE price index for March: inflation heating up

3.5% increase over the last 12 months

Core PCE (excluding food and energy): 3.2%
Click to expand...
Buckle up with energy costs continuing to climb and other critical categories continuing to rise as well, take home pay will continue to shrink. Oh, and the U of Michigan consumer sentiment isn't looking too good either mainly due to the effects of the Iran war.

https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
 
Felt proper to put here, though not quite - I think AI can create a new economic system that works better. He talks about some of that

 
The economy, against the earnest prayers of its professional mourners, continues its vulgar ascent, piling up fresh records while the left indulges in its gaseous but customary opera of grievance. Their lamentations, thin as a street-corner violin, do nothing to arrest the march of figures that offend them. One might say the market has developed a happy immunity to their caterwauling; it advances precisely as they prophesy its ruin, leaving them to confuse their own disappointment with diagnosis.
 
Rightguide said:
The economy, against the earnest prayers of its professional mourners, continues its vulgar ascent, piling up fresh records while the left indulges in its gaseous but customary opera of grievance. Their lamentations, thin as a street-corner violin, do nothing to arrest the march of figures that offend them. One might say the market has developed a happy immunity to their caterwauling; it advances precisely as they prophesy its ruin, leaving them to confuse their own disappointment with diagnosis.
Click to expand...
The economy was stifled last year because of tariffs
The economy suffered this year because of the war.
Without the war, the economy would be better.
Without tariffs, the economy would be better.

Both were actions by dear leader.
 
Rightguide said:
The economy, against the earnest prayers of its professional mourners, continues its vulgar ascent, piling up fresh records while the left indulges in its gaseous but customary opera of grievance. Their lamentations, thin as a street-corner violin, do nothing to arrest the march of figures that offend them. One might say the market has developed a happy immunity to their caterwauling; it advances precisely as they prophesy its ruin, leaving them to confuse their own disappointment with diagnosis.
Click to expand...

What triggered your urge to bluster this time, RightGuide? Was it the rising inflation rate?
 
Rightguide said:
The economy, against the earnest prayers of its professional mourners, continues its vulgar ascent, piling up fresh records while the left indulges in its gaseous but customary opera of grievance. Their lamentations, thin as a street-corner violin, do nothing to arrest the march of figures that offend them. One might say the market has developed a happy immunity to their caterwauling; it advances precisely as they prophesy its ruin, leaving them to confuse their own disappointment with diagnosis.
Click to expand...

🙄

• The stock market is NOT “the economy”.

• Good paying jobs are being cut to help corporate bottom lines (AI fueled???).

• Inflation is spiking.

• The National Debt Is spiking.

• Reposessions and bankruptcies are spiking.

• Financial deregulation is setting the economy up for another crash.

• Industrial deregulation is accelerating the destruction of the environment (See: The waivers / exemptions DonOld & the MAGAt republicans have been giving to major polluters).

😳 😑 🤬

The chickens WILL come home to roost - probably just before DonOld & the MAGAt republicans lose power… and the Democrats will get blamed for not cleaning up DonOld & the MAGAt republicans’ mess fast enough or perfect enough…

The cycle repeats…

😳 😑 🤬

WE. TOLD. THEM. SO.

🌷
 

S&P 500, Nasdaq on Course for Best Month Since 2020​


Thursday, 30 April 2026 11:37 AM EDT


The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were on course to end April with the biggest gains since 2020, highlighting how resilient corporate earnings have helped steady investor nerves despite a historic supply shock in the oil markets.

The rally shows that investors are leaning heavily on earnings resilience to look past geopolitical turmoil, but that increases the risk of a quick tumble if companies begin to signal that ‌war-driven costs were squeezing growth.
"I think there's this big tug of war, but the earnings side is winning so far," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones.

"Market is trying to look through that near-term uncertainty, but of course, the longer it lasts, the more acute the pressures are."

As of 11:33 a.m. EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 642.92 points, or 1.32%, at 49,504.73, while the S&P 500 gains 33.25 points, or 0.47%, to 7,169.20. The Nasdaq is also higher, rising 43.17 points, or 0.17%, to 24,716.41.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/stocks-meta-microsofr/2026/04/30/id/1254765/
 

US Gas Glut Drives Prices Negative in Texas Amid Iran War​


By Newsmax Wires | Thursday, 30 April 2026 11:38 AM EDT

The United States is producing so much natural gas that prices at a key hub in West Texas have fallen below zero, forcing drillers to pay buyers to take the fuel, even as a global energy shock rattles markets.

The unusual pricing highlights a stark divide between U.S. energy abundance and shortages overseas tied to the Iran war, underscoring how domestic production is shielding the American economy from the worst impacts, Axios reported Thursday.

Natural gas, unlike oil, is still largely traded regionally, and the U.S. produces enough to meet its own demand.
That dynamic is leaving parts of the country awash in supply even as Europe and Asia face rising costs and tightening availability.

The glut in West Texas stems from a surge in production over the past 15 years that has far outpaced the pipeline infrastructure needed to transport the gas to other markets.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/natural-gas-energy-markets-west-texas/2026/04/30/id/1254767/
 
Rightguide said:

US Gas Glut Drives Prices Negative in Texas Amid Iran War​


By Newsmax Wires | Thursday, 30 April 2026 11:38 AM EDT

The United States is producing so much natural gas that prices at a key hub in West Texas have fallen below zero, forcing drillers to pay buyers to take the fuel, even as a global energy shock rattles markets.

The unusual pricing highlights a stark divide between U.S. energy abundance and shortages overseas tied to the Iran war, underscoring how domestic production is shielding the American economy from the worst impacts, Axios reported Thursday.

Natural gas, unlike oil, is still largely traded regionally, and the U.S. produces enough to meet its own demand.
That dynamic is leaving parts of the country awash in supply even as Europe and Asia face rising costs and tightening availability.

The glut in West Texas stems from a surge in production over the past 15 years that has far outpaced the pipeline infrastructure needed to transport the gas to other markets.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/natural-gas-energy-markets-west-texas/2026/04/30/id/1254767/
Click to expand...
What part of recovery are you missing here?

Prices would be much better had the war not happened. We are still net negative to where we should be.
 
Trump has single-handedly reduced the American Defense Industry to one customer in the long term - the US Government

America’s Arms Subscription Service Has Updated Its Terms and Conditions

You signed up. You paid the fees. You attended every meeting, bought the branded merchandise, and told your neighbours you were completely safe.

Now Washington has sent a letter.

The United States has formally warned the UK, Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia that their weapons deliveries will be delayed. The Iran war is consuming American stockpiles at a rate nobody apparently planned for, which is impressive given that America has more defence planners than Estonia has people.

This is exactly like ordering a sofa from a furniture company that seemed enormous and reliable, then receiving an email six months later explaining that your sofa has been temporarily redirected to a different customer. A customer they like more. In the Middle East.

Estonia is already facing a complete suspension of HIMARS and Javelin deliveries. Not a delay. A suspension. That is not a late sofa. That is the furniture company calling to say they’ve sold your sofa, kept your money, and would you mind sitting on the floor for a while.

Lockheed Martin is reportedly planning to increase Patriot interceptor production. In a few years. Which is rather like your car manufacturer announcing they will eventually produce brake pads, but probably not before you reach the cliff.

The original warnings covered Baltic and Scandinavian nations. Now they’ve expanded west. The radius of broken promises is spreading like a guarantee written in disappearing ink.

The lesson, if anyone in European defence ministries is paying attention, is straightforward. Never build your entire security architecture around a supplier who can simply decide one afternoon that he has other priorities.

Particularly when that supplier is currently being run by a man who treats alliances like hotel loyalty programmes he can cancel between tweets.
 
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ChloeTzang said:
Trump has single-handedly reduced the American Defense Industry to one customer in the long term - the US Government

Particularly when that supplier is currently being run by a man who treats alliances like hotel loyalty programmes he can cancel between tweets.
Click to expand...

You are right, losing the costumers like this. That is seriously bad for business.

So next time we need a new sofa, we will remember our sore lower backs, sitting on the floor is cold and harsh.

Maybe we should start to produce those furniture again? We even used to be decent.
Rheinmetall + Ikea now that would be something!

That car.. gosh, I really liked the interior - but it fell over the cliff.
Oh, Saab + Ukrainian engineering, I feel like that could use a steamy paella on the side!

But, oh - yeah, we are not coming back.

Kingdom's comes, kingdom's fall.

I used to enjoy some theoretical "what if" debates with my friends, the big one being: The Byzantine empire fell. The Roman empire fell..
What if.... Fell.

I do not enjoy that kind of conversation anymore.
 
Cat said:
Kingdom's comes, kingdom's fall.

I used to enjoy some theoretical "what if" debates with my friends, the big one being: The Byzantine empire fell. The Roman empire fell..
What if.... Fell.

I do not enjoy that kind of conversation anymore.
Click to expand...

Well, we're certainly at an inflection point. The Fall of the American Empire. Trump's hurbis will haunt us for the next two decades. We may come back, we may not, but given the state of the Democrats and The GOP, I smehow doubt the comeback. Once our dollar ceases to be the world currency - something that Trump has made inevitable, those trillions in debt will bring us down.

Something else is the Straits of Hormuz and Trump's stupid war. People don't realize we are irrevocaby over the edge of the cliff on that one. Trump literally has no idea of what he has done and the effects it will have, which are already starting to show. While official global benchmarks remain around $100–$110 per barrel, reports suggest physical oil prices have surged far higher. According to those reports, real-market trades are happening around $140–$150 per barrel and there are even claims that Singapore and Sri Lanka paid as much as $210 and $286 per barrel due to supply shortages. Analysts warn that if this continues alongside regional tensions, the global economy could be heading toward a recession. The ceasefire has only lulled the Trump admin into not making a decision. Bond mkt & gas px - are 3 weeks closer to implosion. Even if Trump really TACOs & this resolves by June, we are in for a major disaster. Spirit Airlines shutting down and laying off 20,000 emplyees is just a taste of what's to come.

The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed. Physical scarcity of oil is about to unfold across the globe, spreading sequentially through April from east to west, causing major economic disruption worldwide. The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced traffic through the strait by 97%, cutting off most of the Persian Gulf oil and gas supply from tanker shipment. The reduction in the supply of oil is twice as large as seen in any previous oil crisis, according to the IEA. This has not yet resulted in physical shortages of oil – although shortages have already been seen, for instance in Australia, this has been due to excessive demand caused by panic buying rather than an interruption in supply. That is about to change.

Limited amounts of Gulf oil have continued to be pumped via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, instead of producing enough oil supply to meet global demand, the world has been relying on emergency stockpiles. According to Goldman Sachs, global oil inventories are draining at a record pace of 11 million to 12 million barrels per day. A new report from JP Morgan highlights how long is left before this becomes unsustainable. At the start of 2026, around 8.4 billion barrels of oil and oil products were in stock, comprising 6.6 billion barrels on land and 1.8 billion barrels afloat in ships. This consisted of approximately 5.2 billion barrels of crude oil and 3.2 billion barrels of refined products. However, only about 800 million barrels of this stockpile is usable without putting the system under operational stress. 280 million barrels had already been used by 23 April – a drawdown of 35%.

JP Morgan assesses that only about 580 million barrels of onshore stocks are actually readily available. The rest is tied up in pipelines, minimum levels in tanks, technical stocks and other operational necessities. Drawing more than this has major risks of causing harm to infrastructure. For instance, pipelines lose flexibility, terminals become unable to operate, and refineries lose the feedstock they need to function, putting the basic infrastructure in jeopardy. Oil on water is the most easily accessible and is already being drawn down at 2.7 million barrels per day. Another 2.2 million barrels per day are coming from commercial on-shore storage. Finally, national strategic reserves account for 2.5 million barrels per day. These stockpiles are being depleted rapidly, which traders warn is leading to a 'tipping point' by the end of May. From the start of June, JP Morgan says, oil stockpiles will be under "operational stress" and will reach an "operational floor" by the end of June.

Traders are warning of oil prices of $200 to $250 per barrel, but say "you can pick a number... We will just not have any buffers." Some estimates, based on a worst case scenario (such as the Arabian pipelines being disabled by new Iranian attacks) go as high as $372. This will result in demand destruction on a huge scale – the physical cessation of fuel use, caused by rationing or excessively high fuel prices. Global oil usage will have to be reduced by an unprecedented 11 million barrels per day to match the remaining supply. This far exceeds the previous drop of 9 million barrels per day caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In each of the three previous worldwide recessions or oil crises (1973-74, 1979-83, 2008-09), oil demand was reduced by no more than 5 million barrels per day. Unlike most of the previous crises, the current one has been accompanied by major damage to physical infrastructure. This will make recovery even longer, prolonging the economic pain by months if not years.

An analyst at oil trader Gunvor warns of "huge pain" and says: "We do not have months... It goes beyond gasoline at the pumps to industry shutting down and you enter recession. The tipping point is clearly June. This is the point at which something has to give." The world has never previously successfully absorbed 11 mb/d of demand destruction through price and market mechanisms alone. Every time anything close to that scale occurred, it was either imposed by government edict (COVID lockdowns) or took years to unfold gradually. The current crisis is demanding that the market achieve something historically unprecedented, on a timeline of weeks to months. Oil prices of $200 per barrel or higher are a realistic possibility once "price increases become exponential rather than linear.” A Macquarie Group analyst comments that "prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand, with some countries, particularly in Asia, already facing physical shortages."

"And with the global economy much less oil intensive than 50 years ago, we would not be surprised if that would require historically high real prices – over $200 per barrel – for a time, which would equate to [an average] U.S. gasoline price of around $7 per gallon." Exactly two months into the Iran War, the world is in phase 3 of the five identified in this mid-March analysis. Physical shortages and rationing are already appearing in Asia, which ran out of Gulf oil about two weeks before Europe and the US. Brent Crude is around $115.

Asian markets account for 80% of crude oil and LNG transiting through Hormuz, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounting for the bulk of demand. Pakistan relies on Gulf supplies for 99% of its LNG, with 80% of Vietnam's crude oil coming from Kuwait. Asian countries have seen factories shutting down, fuel rationing and other conservation measures imposed by governments, shortages of cooking gas, over 150,000 flight cancellations, and severe strain on power networks which are now suffering from a lack of fuel. These effects have not yet been seen on a large scale in the West – but with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persisting, it's clearly only a matter of time.

With President Trump saying he will continue the blockade for "months", it's now a question of which will break first – the Iranian economy, or the world's.

So Trump is pushing us into a world=wide Great Recession without having a fucking clue about what he is doing and has already done - because at this point it's inevitable. Now factor in fertiliserrand the collapseof American agricultual production, which is now also pretty much ineviatble barring a miracle. This is a shitshow on all levels

Our economy will crash - we are not "America Alone" - what happends in the rest of the world impacts us - the Spirit Airlines collapse being just one example - there will be many more. Trump needs to be removed, alomng with Vance, but at this point that's not going to stave off the recession that Trump has triggered with his attack on Iran. All Iran needs to do is hold on, and Trump will come crashing down alng with ours and the world's economies, which will probably include the collapse of the US DOllar, the bankrupting of America, and the emergence of China as the word's superpower without a war.

Think of things like school fuel budgets - they'll blow out. No more school buses. Trucking costs will rose exponentially meaning anything thats trucked (alomost everything) will rise rapidly in price. EVERYTHING!

Amazing what lengths Trump is prepared to go to to help his buddy Putin. Go figure.


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