Just to lay some groundwork here, it’s no secret that the new German government has committed itself to a major military buildup as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nobody is batting an eye over this. As a matter of fact considering Germany’s ignoring it’s NATO commitment for so long there are people saying, “It’s about time.”
Also Germany is addicted to Russian natural gas. Addicted to the point of dependence. All of Europe is going to suffer from the shortages but none more so than Germany. People think of natural gas on the form of energy, and that’s a no brainer. BUT natural gas is also a raw ingredient in the manufacturing of a host of chemical products and Germany is the largest producer of industrial chemicals in Europe. In reality Germany IS the value added manufacturing behemoth in Europe. The loss of that energy source has forced the Germans to make the choice between electricity and heat for the people, or their industry. There’s not enough natural gas for both and won’t be into the foreseeable future.
Russia is on its last legs. The Ukraine invasion has depleted their manpower, military stores, and exposed them as a paper tiger. I think everyone has been surprised by Russia’s military incompetence. Russia has put themselves in a situation where any incursion into their territory will have to be met with a nuclear response.
Germany has a long history of not going quietly into that dark night, but so does Russia. There is no love lost between the two. But the solution to all of Germany’s problems lies in those Russian gas fields.
So here we have a German military buildup coupled to a serious Russian military depletion. And there is a great deal of Europe that wouldn’t mind seeing Russia disappear as a continental power, meaning that many would root for Germany. To the point of nuclear conflict?
The only peaceful resolution that I can see is for the Russian people to rise up and take out Putin and his cronies and then resolve itself into being a source of raw materials for the rest of Europe and abandon any pretense of being a major continental power. Can they? Will they?
What say you?
Also Germany is addicted to Russian natural gas. Addicted to the point of dependence. All of Europe is going to suffer from the shortages but none more so than Germany. People think of natural gas on the form of energy, and that’s a no brainer. BUT natural gas is also a raw ingredient in the manufacturing of a host of chemical products and Germany is the largest producer of industrial chemicals in Europe. In reality Germany IS the value added manufacturing behemoth in Europe. The loss of that energy source has forced the Germans to make the choice between electricity and heat for the people, or their industry. There’s not enough natural gas for both and won’t be into the foreseeable future.
Russia is on its last legs. The Ukraine invasion has depleted their manpower, military stores, and exposed them as a paper tiger. I think everyone has been surprised by Russia’s military incompetence. Russia has put themselves in a situation where any incursion into their territory will have to be met with a nuclear response.
Germany has a long history of not going quietly into that dark night, but so does Russia. There is no love lost between the two. But the solution to all of Germany’s problems lies in those Russian gas fields.
So here we have a German military buildup coupled to a serious Russian military depletion. And there is a great deal of Europe that wouldn’t mind seeing Russia disappear as a continental power, meaning that many would root for Germany. To the point of nuclear conflict?
The only peaceful resolution that I can see is for the Russian people to rise up and take out Putin and his cronies and then resolve itself into being a source of raw materials for the rest of Europe and abandon any pretense of being a major continental power. Can they? Will they?
What say you?
