What's the scoop in Ukraine - latest news and commentary from the war against the Orcs

[ChloeTzang]

KYIV, Ukraine — Powerful explosions rocked a Russian air base in Crimea and sent towering clouds of smoke over the landscape Tuesday in what may mark an escalation of the war in Ukraine. At least one person was killed and several others were wounded, authorities said. Russia’s Defense Ministry denied the Saki base on the Black Sea had been shelled and said instead that munitions had blown up there. But Ukrainian social networks were abuzz with speculation that it was hit by Ukrainian-fired long-range missiles. Videos posted on social networks showed sunbathers fleeing a nearby beach as huge flames and pillars of smoke rose over the horizon from multiple points, accompanied by loud booms. Crimea Today News said on Telegram that witnesses reported fire on a runway and damage to nearby homes as a result of what it said were dozens of blasts.

Russia’s state news agency Tass quoted an unidentified ministry source as saying the explosions’ primary cause appeared to be a “violation of fire safety requirements.” The ministry said no warplanes were damaged. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said sarcastically on Facebook: “The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine cannot establish the cause of the fire, but once again recalls the rules of fire safety and the prohibition of smoking in unspecified places.” During the war, Russia has reported numerous fires and explosions at munitions storage sites on its territory near the Ukrainian border, blaming some of them on Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian authorities have mostly remained mum about the incidents.

Eyewitnesses reported as many as 15 distinct explosions in Novofedorivka, Crimea, followed by a larger blast. Ukraine has not yet officially claimed responsibility, but a Ukrainian military official speaking on condition of anonymity told the New York Times that the nation's armed forces launched the attack. 'This was an air base from which [Russian] planes regularly took off for attacks against our forces in the southern theatre,' the official said, adding that 'a device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture was used' to carry out the attack.

Those darn Russians should stop smoking around munitions. It seems to be a real hazard!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ing-near-Russian-military-airbase-Crimea.html

https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/vide...074843606/640x360_MP4_2544022740074843606.mp4

REsidential windows broken by the blast.....

 

[ChloeTzang]

One wonders if the Ukrainians just did a trial run with the Hrim-2 missile that they had under development? The announcement was that the airbase had been attacked with a Ukrainian weapon,which rules out Himars.

Hrim-2 also known as Grіm-2 / Grom (Thunder)), is a Ukrainian mobile short-range ballistic missile system, planned to combine the features of both tactical missiles and multiple rocket launchers. The missile range for the export version is 280 kilometers. Technically, the missile range is up to 500 km. Reportedly the missile system research and development has been covertly financed by Saudi Arabia. The first test launch of the new tactical missile was scheduled for the second half of 2019 so it may be now in production and being rolled-out for use.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Slowly Taking Back Territory, Ukrainian Forces Counterattack In The Donbas​

Aug 2, 2022 There are sections of the front in the eastern Donbas region where the Ukrainian military is slowly managing to push back Russian troops. Current Time's Borys Sachalko has the story of one unit that captured some Russian trenches.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Putin loses his 100th colonel as US says 80,000 Russian troops have been either killed or wounded during invasion of Ukraine​

Vladimir Putin has now lost at least 100 colonels in the war in Ukraine. Lieutenant-Colonel Vitaly Tsikul, 36 and a tank commander, was confirmed dead by Russian media which showed footage of his funeral taking place in the town of Chebarkul, central Russia.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-says-80-000-Russian-troops-dead-wounded.html

 

[ChloeTzang]

When Ukraine hit the Russian-occupied Saki Air Base in Novofedorivka, occupied Crimea, rumint sats apparently 40 aircraft have been destroyed but thats probably way over-estimated. Even if fewer aircraft were hit, taking out the bombs and missiles for these aircraft is a major success.

Russian units on the Kherson front were being supported from this airbase in the Crimea, so if this is accurate, these units around Kherson has no reliable air support either, and Ukraine has been taking out air defences.
We're talking Ukraine Airforce having air superiority here, with Russian forces their (25-30k orcs) having no air cover, and trapped behind the Dneiper with the bridges cut or being hammered. Thats a nightmare scenario for the orcs.

Ukraine Ministry of Defebce trolls Russia.....

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Panic spreads among Russian colonists in occupied Crimea, Ukraine after the strike on the military airfield at Novofedorivka on August 9. THere's already a huge traffic jam building at the Kerch Bridge in the east part of Ukraine's Russian-occupied Crimea. The jam started to build up after news broke of what may have been a Ukrainian rocket or missile attack on the Russian air base near Saki, occupied-Crimea. I guess Russians are realizing the next target IS the Kerch Bridge, and when that goes down, they'll have no way out. Run, little Russians, run.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1557026534635995139

 

[ChloeTzang]

Where is Amnesty International? Russian tourists in occupied Crimea are endangered by Russian military forces placed close to them

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine would like to remind everyone that the presence of occupying troops on the territory of Ukrainian Crimea is not compatible with the high tourist season.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Looking forward to the next postage stamp

 

[ChloeTzang]

Does Ukraine Have A Stash Of Domestically Developed Ballistic Missiles?​

A possible high-profile long-range attack on a Russian airbase has led many to wonder if Ukraine has a pocket arsenal of ballistic missiles.​

BYJOSEPH TREVITHICK, TYLER ROGOWAYAUG 9, 2022 8:42 PM

uch about what caused a series of explosions earlier today that tore through Russia's Saki Airbase, situated near the village of Novofedorivka on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, remains murky. Russia had claimed what happened was an accident, and that the resulting damage was minimal and caused no casualties, but provided no hard evidence to substantiate this and ordered an evacuation of surrounding areas. Some Ukrainian officials claimed that the incident was a strike, with a subset of them further saying it was carried out using unspecified domestically-developed stand-off weapons. If it was indeed a standoff strike from outside Crimea, it would have had to involve a weapon that Ukraine doesn't officially possess, but they certainly were close to in recent years.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...-of-domestically-developed-ballistic-missiles

 

[LupusDei]

Ukraine is making a move on Kherson front.

(The picture may or may not be from the actual frontline, but it's pretty in a war picture way)

 

[colddiesel]

That Barley crop looks green for the time of year. My guess is that the farmer planted it but Vlad interfered with his weed spraying schedule.

 

[LupusDei]

Ukrainians are buying/receiving world's worth of ammo production. Especially in relatively rarer Russian calibers, like 122mm shells.

It's by now almost common knowledge British cargo aircraft are shipping loads of Pakistanis shells, but spotting Iranian (!) 122mm shells of this year's production in use by UA is a bit surprising. Especially speculation how they got them into the country with European embargoes on Iranian arms still in place. Maybe Turkey is smuggling them somehow.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1565798823703740416

 

[LupusDei]

View attachment 2166951

By Ukrainian assessment, yesterday's one of most intense days of the war, certainly the most Russian loses claimed in a day since March.

 

[LupusDei]

 

[LupusDei]

RUMINT says, Ukrainian armored spearheaded was spotted as close as 2km from Kupyansk in the morning of the 8 September already. During the day there were rumors they have reached Oskil river south of Kupyansk, and there's credible reports Kupyansk come under intense artillery shelling repeatedly. The civilian occupation administration evacuated, the Russian garrison reportedly braced for defense.

The town is a major logistics hub roughly 50-60km (30-40mi) behind where the closest frontlines were three days ago (and largely static for the three months before that).

One attempt to map the offensive:

Reported Russian loses are staggering, the Ukrainian claims are largest so far:

Russian losses, Feb 24 to Sep 8:
~51,250 (+640) killed
239 (+2) aircraft
210 (+2) helicopters
2,112 (+15) tanks
4,557 (+37) armoured vehicles
159 (+2) air defence systems
305 (+5) rocket launchers
3,344 (+24) vehicles/fuel trucks
110 (+1) special equipment
1,126 (+32) artillery systems
884 (+4) UAVs
15 ships/boats
214 cruise missiles

Even the aggregate of already visually confirmed Russian loses within last 72 hours compound to roughly a brigade worth of equipment:

Tanks: 17 (1.5 full strength company)
APC: 23 (2 mech. rifle co.'s in BTR/MT-LB)
IFV: 30 (2.5 mech rifle co.'s in BMP/BMD)
Arty/AT: 21 (3.5 mixed arty/AT batteries)
Motor-Transpo: 20 trucks (2 motor rifle co.'s)
HQ Support: 4 Cmd vic, 1 engi, 3 AD systems, 3 TIGR/MRAP type (1 co.)

 

[LupusDei]

This is pro-Russian Rybar map. What's interesting it shows Senkove (and thus a possibly intact bridge on Oskil river) under Ukrainian control, but not Shevchenkove (major crossroads on northern shoulder of the advance) while pictures of administration buildings flowing Ukrainian flag are coming from Shevchenkove now, but I haven't yet seen any compelling confirmation of ZSU (AFU) in Senkove yet.

There's lots of SoF and partisan action, the territories swept by Ukrainians in least days are hundreds of square miles, the situation is understandably fluid.

 

[LupusDei]

"That's about as fast as one can drive a tank."

 

[LupusDei]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568388880344162304

Visegrád 24 @visegrad24
The Ukrainian Army is about to close the Izyum Pocket. Thousands of Russian soldiers will be killed or captured.

Mark Hertling @MarkHertling
Make no mistake, UA is executing a brilliant maneuver focused on terrain objectives to “bag” Russians. But the Russians are helping them…by doing very little to counter. It’s what happens in armies that are very different.

 

[ll74]

Awesome.

 

[LupusDei]

The Ukrainian military genius personified (UA C-in-C General Valerii Zaluzhnyi), laughing

 

[LupusDei]

There's a Polish made animation of Kharkiv oblast counter-offensive September 6-9

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568336837046943744

What happened today?

At 6 AM Russians ordered a full retreat from Izyum, subsequently it was entered by Ukrainians.
Kupyansk was taken in battle by Ukrainians, the western bank, Russian resistance may continue on the east side
The advance keeps expanding northward... possibly reaching Velykyi Burluk, probably moving towards Vovchansk.
Ukrainians entered Liman* from the south, reportedly seemingly without a fight...
(Why Ly-man gets redacted here?)

Then, there's a lot of chaos, contradictory reports, wild rumors. Retreating Russian columns rolling through Svatove ignited panic that it's too be abandoned by the Russian army, but that seems not be the case, yet. If ZSU can cross Oskil at Kupyansk, pursuing the routed opponent to Svatove and then perhaps even Starobilsk would be very tempting, but the question then is how far it's safe to go with what reserves are available.

It's fair to assume Ukrainians have activated the entire frontline in the east, there's possible probing action (if not more) towards Lysychank, and maybe even near/within Donetsk city, while Russians still apparently continue their pressure towards Bahmut.

There's not much current news from the southern frontline, it is possible Ukrainians are slowly gaining ground towards Volnovakha in Mariupol direction, and of course the slow squeeze in Kherson on the west bank and shelling of all crossings into it continues.

 

[jaF0]

Ahhh, well .....

Russia gives up key northeast towns as Ukrainian forces advance​

Reuters|2 hours ago
The swift fall of Izium in Kharkiv province was Moscow's worst defeat since its troops were forced back from Kyiv in March, and could prove a turning point in the war, with thousands of Russian soldiers abandoning ammunition stockpiles and equipment as they fled.

 

[LupusDei]

What's perhaps a sober* take on Ukrainian territorial gains of last four days in east Kharkiv as of 10th September evening:

*sober as in, trying to ignore the overhyped hopes and fakes seemingly more designed to flare up Russian panic than anything, although some of that might be reused by Russian propaganda to show regained control in nonexistent counter-counter-advances if/when the front stabilized.

 

[Chobham]

I fully understand your desire for Russia to be punished, and I agree. But the human tragedy and the global consequences can't be ignored. No matter who "wins" it will occur at what cost?

In a very real sense it might have been better had Russia prevailed earlier. But they didn't and the waste of blood and treasure continues. It's almost reached the point of a 'war of attrition', a state of affairs that neither nation can sustain.

I see the press treating this as if it's some sort of stadium sports contest. My team versus your team. It's a sick state of mind. Every press outlet should treat this as the travesty that is is. Hell, it's gotten to the point that our domestic press barely reports it at all