🇺🇸✔️ Election Results: Trump vs. Harris - As They Happen ✔️🇺🇸

[coati]

Anyone have early predictions as to how quickly PB Deplorables will run like cowards from this forum if things start looking bad for their traitor on election night?

The PB MAGAts are too deeply programmed to run away from the only thing they have left in their lives.

 

[RoryN]

The PB MAGAts are too deeply programmed to run away from the only thing they have left in their lives.

I woukd agree - except that they've done it before.

In 2020, they logged off as soon as the votes stopped coming in their way. And then only a trickle stayed around for the next few days.

 

[TastySuckToy]

Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at North Carolina’s Catawba College, said early voting showed an equal number of Democrats and Republicans cast ballots on Thursday, a dramatic change from 2020, when more Democrats took advantage of early voting on the first day.

Sounds like good news for Trump.

 

[coati]

I woukd agree - except that they've done it before.

In 2020, they logged off as soon as the votes stopped coming in their way. And then only a trickle stayed around for the next few days.

Yes, I remember that blessed radio silence back in 2020. They were caught flat-footed and had to wait for further instructions from the Kremlin.

This time, however, they have been pre-programmed to go into civil warring mode if the returns don't break in their cult leader's favor.

 

[butters]

North Carolina continues the trend...

North Carolina breaks turnout record on first day of early voting

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ar-AA1sw9L3

!

The state was able to open 76 polling sites across the 25 counties declared federal disaster areas, only four fewer than planned.

that's damned good going!

 

[YDB95]

The MAGATs are still busy deleting the names of voters in swing states, especially married women with a different name to their birth names who haven't completed various bureaucratic processes.

While I am strongly opposed to deleting eligible voters from the rolls whether they vote my way or not, the political whore in me can't help but wonder if it's occurred to the MAGAts that married women who take their husband's name are statistically a lot more likely to vote Republican than women who keep their names or don't get married. Hmm...

Anyone have early predictions as to how quickly PB Deplorables will run like cowards from this forum if things start looking bad for their traitor on election night?

They won't, they'll just insist that it was stolen. Heck, Trump is probably already making plans to dupe them into as much, just like he did before the last election.

Sounds like good news for Trump.

Or it could simply be that this time around, we're not in the midst of a worldwide pandemic where Democrats were a lot more likely to be willing to abide by the recommendations that we avoid going out in public when possible.

 

[Lazaran]

While I am strongly opposed to deleting eligible voters from the rolls whether they vote my way or not, the political whore in me can't help but wonder if it's occurred to the MAGAts that married women who take their husband's name are statistically a lot more likely to vote Republican than women who keep their names or don't get married. Hmm...

With the dramatic gender divide, where women are massively going for Kamala, the MAGAts are obviously willing to take their chances with that bullshit strategy / policy,

 

[SmokingFap]

Make sure you vote. The more people that vote the higher the probability that Trump wins both electorally and popularly.

This is one of the funniest posts I've ever seen on this or any board.

 

[YDB95]

With the dramatic gender divide, where women are massively going for Kamala, the MAGAts are obviously willing to take their chances with that bullshit strategy / policy,

I agree, but I still suspect it's going to bite them in the ass. For one thing, people who plan to vote for Harris are a lot more likely to be aware this sort of thing is going on and check their voter registration in time to re-register if they need to.

 

[adrina]

 

[Lazaran]

I agree, but I still suspect it's going to bite them in the ass. For one thing, people who plan to vote for Harris are a lot more likely to be aware this sort of thing is going on and check their voter registration in time to re-register if they need to.

I hope you’re right.

 

[RobDownSouth]

My takeaways from this:

• The Pennsylvania early voting turnout in 2020 was record breaking, and the 2024 turnout appears will shatter that record by a good 20%. Supermajority of early voters are women.
• Trump is hyperfocused on getting Gen-Z frat bros to turn out for him (MMA fight appearances, Joe Rogan podcast, etc). That demographic has NOT turned out in any appreciable numbers.
• Where Jill Stein is on the ballot, she routinely polls 4 to 5 percent. In 2016, she effectively siphoned off between 1 and 1.5 percent of Hillary Clinton voters. This time, though, she appears to be siphoning off the same percentage of Republican voters (i.e. "I can't vote for Trump but I won't vote for Kamala either"). A one point difference COULD make the difference here.
• Best commentary, though, is the fact that Democrats are talking loud and long about early voting....Republicans are fixated on that weird offshore crypto "political betting" website Polymarket (see also: Derpy, BabyBoom50s).

 

[Lazaran]

This ^ !!!

It was the impression I was getting from the early results and recent trends, but it’s nice to have it reinforced by the experts.

Thanks for sharing that, adrina!!!

 

[Lazaran]

Republicans are fixated on that weird offshore crypto "political betting" website Polymarket (see also: Derpy, BabyBoom50s).

At least we know where BabyBoobs, etc, get the gas for their gaslighting from.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

• Best commentary, though, is the fact that Democrats are talking loud and long about early voting....Republicans are fixated on that weird offshore crypto "political betting" website Polymarket (see also: Derpy, BabyBoom50s).

I post election tracking data in the “Just the polls” thread. Mostly without editorial comment and almost always with links to the source poll whenever possible.

I post betting odds published by Realclear politics once in a while because I think some folks here might be interested in where people are putting their money. I don’t tout their predictive value because I don’t think anyone can predict the outcome of the presidential election this cycle. And I certainly am not fixated on Polymarket. They are one of a dozen or more in the RCP average. I read a story in WSJ yesterday that said Trump supporters are rigging the odds. I don’t place bets and I don’t advocate betting markets. The house usually wins.

The only other forward looking data I recall posting is stuff from Nate Silver’s predictive model (not to be confused with FiveThirtyEight which he’s no longer associated with). Silver doesn’t declare who will win and who will lose. He produces probabilities. I post his stuff on occasion because his work is interesting and he’s a serious data scientist and statistician who documents his methodology. He’s also transparent about his political leanings. He supports Kamala Harris. He sees the race as a dead heat. The probabilities in his model have shifted from one candidate to the other since the primaries ended, but those probabilities have always been narrow. He’s consistently been saying it’s a dead heat. See my post in “Just the polls” for his latest assessment.

I’m a polling junkie and I do my best to focus on polls from firms that have established reputations. Nearly every poll I’ve posted has been tracked by Realclear and/or Silver and published by established news outlets, such as ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, NBC, NPR, NYT, WaPo, and WSJ.

Lozeran and his fellow losers on the PB hate the polls I post. Even the ones that favor their side. Best advice I have to offer them is to put me on ignore.

 

[coati]

Lozeran and his fellow losers on the PB hate the polls I post. Even the ones that favor their side. Best advice I have to offer them is to put me on ignore.

These days pollsters in general, and the networks sponsoring them, should be put on ignore. Their primary purpose is to turn elections into a close horse race so they can sell as much advertisement time as possible.

The very algorithms used to capture an audience in modern media are responsible for enormous selection bias in modern polling methodology. The election results will not be a "dead heat", as currently being predicted by the greed sector in America. As a result of the very misleading pre-election poll data, on election night Trump will again have fodder for claiming the election is "rigged". But, the only poll that counts is the election.

My advice is to turn off your TV, turn off the polling threads, and go outdoors to experience the Fall weather with other political activists in real life. There is a huge ground game taking place IRL.

 

[jomar]

I agree, but I still suspect it's going to bite them in the ass. For one thing, people who plan to vote for Harris are a lot more likely to be aware this sort of thing is going on and check their voter registration in time to re-register if they need to.

I actually checked mine because of state fuckery. Good to go and will early vote next week.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

These days pollsters in general, and the networks sponsoring them, should be put on ignore. Their primary purpose is to turn elections into a close horse race so they can sell as much advertisement time as possible.

The very algorithms used to capture an audience in modern media are responsible for enormous selection bias in modern polling methodology. The election results will not be a "dead heat", as currently being predicted by the greed sector in America. As a result of the very misleading pre-election poll data, on election night Trump will again have fodder for claiming the election is "rigged". But, the only poll that counts is the election.

My advice is to turn off your TV, turn off the polling threads, and go outdoors to experience the Fall weather with other political activists in real life. There is a huge ground game taking place IRL.

I’m actually part of the ground game in my congressional district this season. I’ve canvassed, phone banked, and did analytics for several city council and mayoral candidates in the past. Candidates with sufficient funding hire professional pollsters to help guide where they spend their scarce time and money. Nobody is asking you to follow the polls posted on this site. You’re free to ignore them.

 

[RobDownSouth]

I’m actually part of the ground game in my congressional district this season. I’ve canvassed, phone banked, and did analytics for several city council and mayoral candidates in the past. Candidates with sufficient funding hire professional pollsters to help guide where they spend their scarce time and money. Nobody is asking you to follow the polls posted on this site. You’re free to ignore them.

They can always seek succor in Polymarket, the rich folks' pay to play site. amiright?

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

They can always seek succor in Polymarket, the rich folks' pay to play site. amiright?

There are many betting sites and platforms where they can wager on all kinds of things.

 

[coati]

I’m actually part of the ground game in my congressional district this season. I’ve canvassed, phone banked, and did analytics for several city council and mayoral candidates in the past. Candidates with sufficient funding hire professional pollsters to help guide where they spend their scarce time and money. Nobody is asking you to follow the polls posted on this site. You’re free to ignore them.

I already knew you would conflate "analytics" with ground game.

Winning candidates have an actual positive message and vision that inspires ordinary citizens be enthusiastic about voting. And indeed, those voters do ignore the polls.

 

[Politruk]

Make sure you vote. The more people that vote the higher the probability that Trump wins both electorally and popularly.

Everything the GOP has done in the past 40 years to block access to the polls is based on the assumption that LOW turnout helps Republicans win.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

I already knew you would conflate "analytics" with ground game.

Winning candidates have an actual positive message and vision that inspires ordinary citizens be enthusiastic about voting. And indeed, those voters do ignore the polls.

Of course winning candidates have messages that connect with voters. They also rely on polling data to guide the allocation of resources and to target and tune their messaging.

 

[coati]

Of course winning candidates have messages that connect with voters. They also rely on polling data to guide the allocation of resources and to target and tune their messaging.

There is too much blood money, too much polling, too much advertising, too much lying, and too little actual debate going on in American elections.

Ignore the pollsters-- they are about to be greatly humiliated once again in the upcoming election. Ignore the talking heads on the networks-- they are just doing the bidding of their executive overlords.

Lobby for election reform. Overturn the Citizens United decision. Ban election commercials. Hold a series of compulsory debates on a set schedule. Quit turning the electoral process into a bloated industry. That only serves to dumb down the electorate.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Ignore the pollsters

I would be delighted if Kamala Harris and every other Democrat campaigning for office took your advice but they won’t.