🇺🇸✔️ Election Results: Trump vs. Harris - As They Happen ✔️🇺🇸

[Politruk]

Election campaigns should not be allowed to accept money or spend money. We should do it like the French do: Every candidate gets an equal allotment of free television time.

 

[coati]

I would be delighted if Kamala Harris and every other Democrat campaigning for office took your advice but they won’t.

I'm talking to the voters, not the candidates running under the current perverted system,, asshole.

The pollsters will be humiliated once again.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Early voting data compiled by the Nevada Independent. The nonprofit news organization was founded by Jon Ralston, a snarky, well-known political reporter and pundit who has been covering Nevada politics for about 40 years.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

I'm talking to the voters, not the candidates running under the current perverted system,, asshole.

The pollsters will be humiliated once again.

I understand and wish all Democrat candidates would follow your example, but they won’t. BTW, polls are snapshots, not forecasts.

 

[Politruk]

BTW, polls are snapshots, not forecasts.

So what is any more reliable as a forecast?

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

So what is any more reliable as a forecast?

There’s nothing out there that can predict outcomes with 100% accuracy. That’s why I don’t make predictions or place bets on the predictions of others. Well-designed polls can give a reasonable indication of public opinion at a given point in time, but even those have a margin of error. Predictive models attempt to provide probability forecasts.

What the data is telling us right now is that the presidential race is a tossup. We can also have a high confidence level that Kamala Harris will win certain blue states (ex. California) and Trump will win certain red states (ex. West Virginia). There are at least a half dozen states that are way too close to call. Those are the ones we’re all watching closely.

Watch where Harris and Trump are spending their time and money. The decisions they’re making are being informed by internal polling.

 

[ll74]

There’s nothing out there that can predict outcomes with 100% accuracy. That’s why I don’t make predictions or place bets on the predictions of others. Well-designed polls can give a reasonable indication of public opinion at a given point in time, but even those have a margin of error. Predictive models attempt to provide probability forecasts.

What the data is telling us right now is that the presidential race is a tossup. We can also have a high confidence level that Kamala Harris will win certain blue states (ex. California) and Trump will win certain red states (ex. West Virginia). There are at least a half dozen states that are way too close to call. Those are the ones we’re all watching closely.

Watch where Harris and Trump are spending their time and money. The decisions they’re making are being informed by internal polling.

People get excited over polls that swing their way and ignore those that don't.

I don't typically post Rasmussen polls because of their blatant bias towards MAGA, but even their polls have a story to tell.

I always appreciate your contribution to the thread

 

[Politruk]

What the data is telling us right now is that the presidential race is a tossup.

It really shouldn't be. This isn't 2016 -- Trump is no longer an unknown quantity -- we know what his first term was like -- how can anybody want a second?!

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

People get excited over polls that swing their way and ignore those that don't.

I don't typically post Rasmussen polls because of their blatant bias towards MAGA, but even their polls have a story to tell.

I always appreciate your contribution to the thread

I don’t place much credence in Rasmussen polls either.

 

[ll74]

I don’t place much credence in Rasmussen polls either.

They have a negative rating on 538. Their Twitter feed is incredibly biased and their polling arm isn't really divided within the company. Their most recent poll regarding certifying the election was puzzling, but I havent had time to dig into it much to see.....

 

[Lazaran]

Early voting data compiled by the Nevada Independent. The nonprofit news organization was founded by Jon Ralston, a snarky, well-known political reporter and pundit who has been covering Nevada politics for about 40 years.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

Maybe BabyBoobs should actually watch that video and try and comprehend the finer details…



BabyBoobs

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

It really shouldn't be. This isn't 2016 -- Trump is no longer an unknown quantity -- we know what his first term was like -- how can anybody want a second?!

The polls and conversations with Trump supporters useful ways to get your question answered. I’ve been engaged in friendly conversations with Trump and Harris voters for two hours a day at my county polling station. It’s been very illuminating.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

Maybe BabyBoobs should actually watch that video and try and comprehend the finer details…



BabyBoobs

My post that you commented on is early voting data from Nevada. Try to keep up Loseran.

 

[Lazaran]

My post that you commented on is early voting data from Nevada. Try to keep up Loseran.

BabyBoobs obviously didn’t watch the video…or BabyBoobs didn’t comprehend the finer details…



BabyBoobs

 

[coati]

BTW, polls are snapshots, not forecasts.

If that's true, why are you FORECASTING (based on the polling data you take so seriously) that the election is so close it must be considered a toss-up?

Polls do not even provide an accurate "snapshot" any more. Too many actual voters dropped out of the polling game long ago. Selection bias is now baked in because pollsters are no longer trusted like they were back when everyone had landlines and when there was less of an incestuous relationship between media outlets and the polling industry.

There are too many self-important corporate middle-men dominating our election process.

 

[Lazaran]

If that's true, why are you FORECASTING (base on the polling data you take so seriously) that the election is so close it must be considered a toss-up?

Polls do not even provide an accurate "snapshot" any more. Too many actual voters dropped out of the polling game long ago. Selection bias is now baked in because pollsters are no longer trusted like they were back when everyone had landlines and when there was less of an incestuous relationship between media outlets and the polling industry.

Case in point:

The pollsters have attempted to contact me ad nauseam.

I ignored every attempt.

The pollsters will get my opinion from my ballot.

 

[BabyBoomer50s]

If that's true, why are you FORECASTING (based on the polling data you take so seriously) that the election is so close it must be considered a toss-up?

Polls do not even provide an accurate "snapshot" any more. Too many actual voters dropped out of the polling game long ago. Selection bias is now baked in because pollsters are no longer trusted like they were back when everyone had landlines and when there was less of an incestuous relationship between media outlets and the polling industry.

There are too many self-important corporate middle-men dominating our election process.

I haven’t forecasted a winner of the presidential race.

 

[coati]

I haven’t forecasted a winner of the presidential race.

You've repeatedly predicted that the election is too close to call. Using corporate polling data to make such a prediction plays right into the hands of MAGAts who will revolt if the the actual election results tell a very different story.

You and Dull74 take the polling and yourselves way too seriously, and are part of the problem with a perverted election system in the USA that is dominated by corporate pundits, corporate money, and an advertising industry that feeds on conflict and "dead heat" elections.

Let's talk again after the election.

 

[ll74]

You've repeatedly predicted that the election is too close to call.

He hasn't done that. The majority of polling currently has the contest too close to call. He has presented those results without bias and provided sources to those polls for anyone who wishes to look at them.

No one has predicted anything. You not liking polls isn't his issue...it's yours

 

[Lazaran]

You've repeatedly predicted that the election is too close to call. Using corporate polling data to make such a prediction plays right into the hands of MAGAts who will revolt if the the actual election results tell a very different story.

You and Dull74 take the polling and yourselves way too seriously, and are part of the problem with a perverted election system in the USA that is dominated by corporate pundits, corporate money, and an advertising industry that feeds on conflict and "dead heat" elections.

Let's talk again after the election.

They’re stroking their "polls" together…

 

[coati]

They’re stroking their "polls" together…

And now Dull74 is repeating the "dead heat" poll results, but insisting that no one is predicting anything about how close the election results will be.

Well, for the polling no-it-alls, here is a prediction for you-- Harris will win decisively and MAGAts will squawk, becuz polling.

Polling "experts": don't piss on me and tell me it's raining. Rational voters stopped participating in your game. The only poll that counts is the election tally.

 

[ll74]

And now Dull74 is repeating the "dead heat" poll results, but insisting that no one is predicting anything about how close the election results will be.

Well, for the polling no-it-alls, here is a prediction for you-- Harris will win decisively and MAGAts will squawk, becuz polling.

Polling "experts": don't piss on me and tell me it's raining. Rational voters stopped participating in your game. The only poll that counts is the election tally.

I'm spreading poll results, which are a dead heat overall.

If you want to focus only on polls that aren't dead heats, you can do so. But ignoring that the averages across polls aligns with that position, that means you just don't like polls that disagree with you.

However you need explain this, is your own thing to come to terms with. I'm not ignoring any polls.

 

[Lazaran]

And now Dull74 is repeating the "dead heat" poll results, but insisting that no one is predicting anything about how close the election results will be.

Well, for the polling no-it-alls, here is a prediction for you-- Harris will win decisively and MAGAts will squawk, becuz polling.

Polling "experts": don't piss on me and tell me it's raining. Rational voters stopped participating in your game. The only poll that counts is the election tally.

The funny thing is, BabyBoobs (in post #53) did exactly what adrina’s video mocked - gaslighted by citing early voting from small counties in Nevada as if it meant something - and dull74 ignorantly nodded along.

 

[RoryN]

Just got a PM suggesting I change the title to 2024 Election Results Thread: ll74 vs coati

This will be voted on. Pre-election polls to follow...

 

[ll74]

The funny thing is, BabyBoobs (in post #53) did exactly what adrina’s video mocked - gaslighted by citing early voting from small counties in Nevada as if it meant something - and dull74 ignorantly nodded along.

The polls are currently a dead heat.

You thinking this is spin is your own issue