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Just the Polls

ANYT/Siena poll published Sunday shows Donald Trump leading Kamal Harris by 1 point — 48 percent to 47 percent — among likely voters.


The Times’ Nate Cohn and his colleagues have published the first high-quality survey since Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the ticket that suggests the VP’s hot streak may be coming to an end, according to an analysis by Politico of the polling.

The Times poll, like any single poll, we’ll have to wait to see if it’s validated by other research in the coming days. The debate on Tuesday could also scramble things in some new way, so we don’t want to read too much into this morning’s numbers.

But Cohn, who says “the result is a bit surprising,” offers some wise analysis about why the poll may be a leading indicator of “a reversion back toward” Trump:

  1. Trump remains popular,with a 46 percent approval rating — which is better than where he stood in either of his last two presidential campaigns.
  2. Trump has the edge over Harris when voters were asked generally which candidate is better on whatever was their top issue.
  3. In what Cohn calls “one of Mr. Trump’s overlooked advantages,”the Times poll says voters see the former president as closer to the center than Harris. This has to be a bitter pill for the Harris campaign to swallow, given how much work it has done since she took over as the Democratic nominee to occupy the center and, as Cohn points out, given some prominent issues where Trump is objectively not in the mainstream, such as election denialism.
“The honeymoon is officially over,” Trump spokesperson Jason Miller told Playbook Sunday morning, “and Kamala Harris has been exposed as a Radical Left individual who owns the destruction of our economy and our border.”
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On Sunday, September 8, polling expert and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver updated his presidential election forecast and gave GOP nominee Donald Trump a 63.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in November and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris only a 36 percent chance.
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But veteran conservative consultant Stuart Stevens — a Never Trumper conservative who is supporting Harris — is critical of Silver's forecast, arguing that there is a connection between Silver's FiveThirtyEight and billionaire Trump supporter Peter Thiel.

In a September 10 post on X, formerly Twitter, Stevens wrote, "Polymarket is Peter Thiel's creation. @NateSilver538 is being paid by Peter Thiel."
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...1&cvid=415d7d582f6e42778026c71d5c91a136&ei=42
 
BabyBoomer50s said:
Not buying it. Silver is an unabashed Harris supporter but his history gives no indication of intentional bias. His model has ebbed and flowed over the course of this cycle.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1833466529519649183
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🙄

BabyBoobs is a lying, gaslighting POS - and BabyBoobs knows why.

(BabyBoobs switching out the Ro Khanna comment which had a hilarious reply at the bottom was weak af.)

😑

👉 BabyBoobs 🤣

🇺🇸
 
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, the first to be conducted since the debate, had Harris ahead by five points, 47 to 42%, a 1-point rise on the lead recorded in the week after last month’s Democratic national convention.
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A separate Morning Consult survey published on Thursday showed a similar lead, 50 to 45%, up from the three- to four-point advantage Harris was registering before the debate. Tellingly, the poll reflected a loss of support for Trump, perhaps supporting some pollsters’ argument that his erratic performance in Tuesday’s encounter – which was watched by 67.1 million viewers – damaged his credibility.
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Two other polls by YouGov and Leger give Harris a four- and three-point lead respectively. Generally, the post-debate polls present a rosier outlook for the vice-president than surveys beforehand
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...&cvid=3d01f966ce9c400d93765819f3841f76&ei=109
 
A Texas Senate race between Allred and cruz has grown closer, with cruz not making it above the 50% mark

But new polling suggests the party is competitive in Texas, both on the presidential level and in the race between Cruz and Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred, fueling hopes that this could be the year the state finally trends in the party’s direction.
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Two new surveys have found Allred at incumbent Cruz’s heels, within the margin of error. An Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll this week put Allred just 4 points behind, and a University of Houston/Texas Southern University (UH/TSU) survey late last month found the rivals a mere 2 points apart among likely voters.
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A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project (UT) survey last week found Allred further behind, trailing Cruz by 8 points among registered voters. But the pollster noted the Democrat has steadily chipped away at the incumbent’s lead since a December poll put him down 16 points — likely as more Democratic voters become familiar with the Dallas-area lawmaker.
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Republican former Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) has also stepped in with a surprise endorsement of Allred, hailing him as “a tremendous, serious candidate.”
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4879532-texas-democrats-cruz-allred-senate-race/
 
The latest version of the FiveThirtyEight election forecast, one of the most-viewed models this election, gave Trump a record-low chance of winning the Electoral College at just 39 percent.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...&cvid=9927f135d38c465c9e361c91d7410c8c&ei=116

The Harris campaign also received positive polling from Pennsylvania, widely considered to be the most significant swing state in this election, on Monday, with a poll that put the Democrat ahead by three points, with 48.6 percent to Trump's 45.6 percent

the latest Morning Consult poll.

The vice president is currently 6 percentage points ahead among likely voters, 51 percent to Trump's 45 percent, which is double the advantage she held before their debate on ABC last week.

The polling also showed that Harris also had a strong lead with independent voters, with 47 percent saying they were planning to vote for her in November. 41 percent said the same about Trump with a further 6 percent undecided about the decision, and another 6 percent voting for a third-party candidate.
 
Data scientist Thomas Miller of Northwestern University correctly predicted the 2020 Electoral College map, with the exception of Georgia. He also accurately forecasted Georgia's two Democratic U.S. senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, defeating then-incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
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Now, he's anticipating that Vice President Kamala Harris will not only defeat former President Donald Trump in November, but will do so by a significant margin. Fortune reported that Miller is predicting that Harris' electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona) with a whopping 486 electoral votes, or President Bill Clinton's 1996 victory over Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kansas), in which he secured 379 electoral votes.
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"It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," Miller said of his forecasting model.
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"Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes," Fortune's Shawn Tully wrote. "The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trump’s chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained [her] 400-plus vote total."
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The most hotly contested battleground states — which include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — will ultimately decide which candidate crosses the 270-vote threshold. Miller is predicting a clean sweep for Harris in all of them.
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as much as i want this to be true, only time will tell

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...&cvid=0f21988073794312b18911ac951b316b&ei=126
 
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