Who do you think will win?

Honestly, it's anyone's race now. Harris took a slight bump from her replacement of Biden, then Trump began to resurge, and now the debate has probably given her a bounce of some kind, though how much is debatable. It's so up in the air now that neither side should get cocky, sloppy, or lazy. Watch out. Make your best case to swing voters. Right now, the negatives of both sides outweigh the positives of both. One wants nuclear brinkmanship and Cold War and the other can't stop lying about an election that he lost. One side has botched the economy for at least many of us little guys suffering from the bad energy and fiscal policy. The other side is flirting too much with right-wing think-tanks, to the extent that people are actively worried that said think-tanks will dictate public policy (I doubt it, as Trump tends to do be his own man, but the risk does exist). One side is basically run by a cabal or committee of lobbyists, lawyers, technocrats, bureaucrats, politicians, and political operatives. The other side panders to a bunch of preachers and their congregations way too much, though again, he does tend to be his own boss in the end. One side is headed by a slippery lush who is endorsed by all of the wrong people, mostly neoliberal grifters and neocon chicken hawks, and who never met a donation or bribe that she didn't like, who actually threatened poor people with jail time over truancy, who has absolutely no democratic or popular mandate to lead her party, having taken over in a palace coup reminiscent of the Kremlin one in 1964, and who waffled so many times on so many issues that it's hard to know what she really believes. The other side is headed by a man who did the bribing, who did the corrupting of other people, who even donated to the head of the opposing team more than once, who has broken repeated promises to his own base, who still won't release his own tax returns to the public, who has accepted emoluments in breach of the Constitution (the only clearly impeachable offense that he actually committed, for which he was ironically not impeached), who has bankrupted casinos multiple times, and has often violated contracts with other parties.

People who claim that there is a clear choice and that Kamala or Trump is unironically the best candidate, flawless, infallible, and always the right choice all along, or even the apparent lesser evil ignore the flaws with their own side so much that I must conclude that they are either delusional, arrogant, or masters of wishful thinking. It's not nearly as clear or obvious of a choice as they would have you believe, but God forbid that you should critique their chosen Messiah. It gives real personality cult vibes, in both cases, to be perfectly frank. If that makes me pedantic, to point out the issues with both Harris and Trump, so be it. I'll be pedantic, if it means that I am accurate and provide badly needed nuance, context, and detail to this whole, hysterical clusterfuck.
Listing imaginary flaws of Vice President Harris in the same paragraph as the real flaws of Donald Trump is disingenuous. It implies a false equivalence that doesn’t exist.
 
Listing imaginary flaws of Vice President Harris in the same paragraph as the real flaws of Donald Trump is disingenuous. It implies a false equivalence that doesn’t exist.
That you think that these are imaginary flaws genuinely disturbs me, but suit yourself. For instance, she absolutely did threaten poor people, many of them minorities, with jail time over their children's truancy, instead of trying to solve the truancy problem in a way that didn't make their already difficult lives worse. She is on tape boasting about that.
 
That you think that these are imaginary flaws genuinely disturbs me, but suit yourself. For instance, she absolutely did threaten poor people, many of them minorities, with jail time over their children's truancy, instead of trying to solve the truancy problem in a way that didn't make their already difficult lives worse. She is on tape boasting about that.
Harris didn’t “threaten poor people with jail time over truancy”. The law provided for an escalating series of consequences if parents didn’t take truancy seriously, only culminating in jail time if all other efforts failed. You’re exaggerating to make it seem like your opposition to Harris is principled.
 
Harris didn’t “threaten poor people with jail time over truancy”. The law provided for an escalating series of consequences if parents didn’t take truancy seriously, only culminating in jail time if all other efforts failed. You’re exaggerating to make it seem like your opposition to Harris is principled.
She bragged about what she did. It was on tape. She even laughed about it. Suit yourself. Whatever.
 
She bragged about what she did. It was on tape. She even laughed about it. Suit yourself. Whatever.
Yes, Kamala Harris did push for a law to that provided penalties for parents who were neglecting their children by allowing them to skip school. Some laws are good. This was a good law.
 
Yes, Kamala Harris did push for a law to that provided penalties for parents who were neglecting their children by allowing them to skip school. Some laws are good. This was a good law.
It was a horrible and misguided law. Impoverished families have enough to worry about without someone bringing in the threat of criminal penalties in the midst of absences that might even be caused by life-altering tragedies, emergencies, etc. Those tend to happen to impoverished families more than most. This is a woefully naïve position, to trust the authorities to known when or when not to pursue criminal prosecution in situations like this. She should not be applauded for this. She should be condemned for it.
 
It was a horrible and misguided law. Impoverished families have enough to worry about without someone bringing in the threat of criminal penalties in the midst of absences that might even be caused by life-altering tragedies, emergencies, etc. Those tend to happen to impoverished families more than most. This is a woefully naïve position, to trust the authorities to known when or when not to pursue criminal prosecution in situations like this. She should not be applauded for this. She should be condemned for it.
What should be done if a child repeatedly skips school and their parents refuse to address the issue?
 
What should be done if a child repeatedly skips school and their parents refuse to address the issue?
The first step should be to contact the families, inquire into the circumstances of the absences, make sure that they are aware of the absences (they might be working extremely long hours at multiple jobs, often both parents do), see if maybe a member of the extended family can step in and help ensure their attendance, etc. See if maybe a transfer of schools is best, too. Maybe there is bullying involved. Maybe there is abuse. If your first communication with the parents is to threaten the possibility of incarceration, though, that's a bit hasty, wouldn't you say? At some point, there might have to be some visits from Child Protection Services, simply a welfare check, to make sure that they have acceptable living conditions, too. In extreme cases, loss of custody might have to be considered. That's still far less draconian than incarceration, which would result in loss of custody, anyway.
 
The first step should be to contact the families, inquire into the circumstances of the absences, make sure that they are aware of the absences (they might be working extremely long hours at multiple jobs, often both parents do), see if maybe a member of the extended family can step in and help ensure their attendance, etc. See if maybe a transfer of schools is best, too. Maybe there is bullying involved. Maybe there is abuse. If your first communication with the parents is to threaten the possibility of incarceration, though, that's a bit hasty, wouldn't you say? At some point, there might have to be some visits from Child Protection Services, simply a welfare check, to make sure that they have acceptable living conditions, too. In extreme cases, loss of custody might have to be considered. That's still far less draconian than incarceration, which would result in loss of custody, anyway.

https://www.npr.org/sections/codesw...e-story-behind-kamala-harriss-truancy-program

Your knowledge of the situation lacks nuance as well as additional information. The "punish the parents" part of the law was on the books. That was not her invention. Regardless, I'm sure you'll read this article with as much independence as you've been shown to display.
 
The first step should be to contact the families, inquire into the circumstances of the absences, make sure that they are aware of the absences (they might be working extremely long hours at multiple jobs, often both parents do), see if maybe a member of the extended family can step in and help ensure their attendance, etc. See if maybe a transfer of schools is best, too. Maybe there is bullying involved. Maybe there is abuse. If your first communication with the parents is to threaten the possibility of incarceration, though, that's a bit hasty, wouldn't you say? At some point, there might have to be some visits from Child Protection Services, simply a welfare check, to make sure that they have acceptable living conditions, too. In extreme cases, loss of custody might have to be considered. That's still far less draconian than incarceration, which would result in loss of custody, anyway.
You and Vice President Harris both support taking children away from parents who neglect them. Nevertheless, you find her position disqualifies her for the Presidency.

I submit that you're grasping at straws to manufacture a false equivalency between her and Donald Trump.
 
You and Vice President Harris both support taking children away from parents who neglect them. Nevertheless, you find her position disqualifies her for the Presidency.

I submit that you're grasping at straws to manufacture a false equivalency between her and Donald Trump.
My position doesn't include incarceration as an option. Hers does. That is a crucial difference. I submit that you're woefully naïve in this and other matters, and that someday, you'll find out just how naïve, but probably too late. These days, you're either cynical or naïve. There is no alternative to these.
 
No, but those are acts of violence and life-threatening neglect, not something that is less physically harmful or less of an imminent peril.
Neglecting a child's education stunts them for life. School is free. Not sending your child to school is as harmful as starving them or hitting them.
 
Yes, Kamala Harris did push for a law to that provided penalties for parents who were neglecting their children by allowing them to skip school. Some laws are good. This was a good law.

We actually had debates (arguments really) about this in my circle of professionals in the psych field, and the ultimate argument that won the day for the necessity of incarceration in certain cases, was the fact that some kids were missing school because their own parents (gang members themselves) were recruiting them into gang activities (drug deliveries, theft, etc,) because the parent already had a conviction, and a minor would receive little to no major consequences if caught.

Once the parent in those kinds of situations became exposed to legal consequences for their children’s school absences, their calculus was more likely to change, and they were more likely to change their behavior and that of their child. (So we concluded)

The law Kamala Harris promoted was the product of years of thoughtful debate and consideration, and it’s most severe consequences were only meant to be applied in the most extreme circumstances. Kamala Harris isn’t / wasn’t responsible for every dickhead right wing prosecutor who wants / wanted to make a name for themselves with splashy arrests under that particular law. (A suspicious person might submit that certain cases were brought against people like Cheree Peoples by right wing prosecutors to make Kamala Harris look bad and turn voters of color against her.)

It is a good law, on balance, and there is a lot of nuance in the reasons it was considered necessary in the first place, and in the reasons it is implemented / enforced in certain situations.

Here’s a good read on how the law is currently implemented:

https://edsource.org/2024/californi...fore-enforcing-state-truancy-law/716934?amp=1

Of course, all of that ^ nuanced explanations for the law still isn’t / won’t be good enough for "some people", because "reasons" something something "not perfect" something something".

😑

🤬
 
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It should be noted that, of the elections, the record for Trump is two losses (2018 and 2020), one draw (2022), and one win (2016). Not exactly the most stellar record. Not a huge amount of winning there. The GOP hasn't done well in electoral terms under his command. Just speaking in practical terms, as far as electability is concerned.
 
Four weeks to go and there seems to be very little movement to either candidate. Despite a very clear win to Harris in the debate, it seemed to have little effect on voting intentions. To my mind both candidates are concentrating too much on their respective donors interests and on the final run in need to give ( at least promise) something to the voters. They can then both renege after the election and cosy up to their donors and lobbyists.

My bet, the disgusting criminal filth Trump to win fairly easily, though Harris will take the popular vote. Though if anyone remembers 1992, a lot can change in the last four weeks.
 
Look at the numbers.

The debates meant nothing.

Everyone has made up their minds save the fickle...

Our fate will be decided by the wet-finger prevailing winds the day that handful votes.

Polls are only telling us what we already know; on the brink of a civil war of one sort or another...
 
I predict Harris wins narrowly in the popular vote and Trump will win narrowly in the Electoral College. Neither will have a mandate, but Trump will get his way because of the Republican Supreme Court. As a result, the rich will benefit from tax cuts for the rich. Working class and middle class people will not benefit economically, but most whites will approve of Trumps policies on social issues, especially on race, crime, and immigration. Those three are the most popular Republican issues. Consumer prices will rise because of Trump's tariffs on imported goods. The national debt will rise dramatically. The environment will become dirtier, and the climate will become hotter because of Trump's repealing of environmental regulations.

Unless the second Trump administration provokes a powerful backlash, it will be bad for the United States and the world. Republican politicians who know enough to oppose Trump will be afraid to because of Trump's cult like following.
 
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So it would seem...

Yes, Vice President Harris is in the lead in the polls, and as I said in prior posting, I expect her to win. President Biden would have won, but he’s out due to coup.

Confession: I am not a fan of polls, but was drawn in by the topic, made a comment and then polls were introduced, so this is why I say something that counters current polling. That is all, but it did get me to thinking about the sub-topic (somewhat less than topic) and generated a response (not a rebuttal or disputation of the polls, they could be 100% spot on, Ouija Board or the Butcher’s Thumb).

As an avid hobbyist and observer of chaotic systems, a programmer involved in modeling and a devotee of Hari Seldon, I’ll make some general comments about the nature of a group of people. I think we can all accept that, when it comes to ideas, one person is agreeable, two people can reach an understanding that is satisfactory to them (free market), and three people cannot agree on lunch (committee).

[Unless it’s a Democracy and two cannibals and Joe Biden’s uncle are deciding on lunch under a coconut tree.
Should I leave that in? I am the headliner…,
]

First premise is then that we are a nation of disagreeable, but intelligent, people that have to agree to get things done, that is to compromise, accept the beneficial (or benign) and forgo the perfect, so we form groups, alliances, vehicles in which to enforce agreements and to resolve agreements gone bad, we are therefore compelled to form a government.
Second premise naturally follows: our government is the culmination of this system of alliances something all of us accept but rarely, if ever, are satisfied with.
Thirdly, our government evolved into a two-party system, one that used to represent a check and balance on one country united in it ideas so that voting for one party or the other didn’t really affect day-to-day life, so it was used to “throw the bum out.” In this, we were a little less passionate about government; not really part of day-to-day life or future planning.
Obviously and conclusively, we are no longer united by one vision. We are not throwing the bum out, we are fighting for power and largess and we are evenly divided between the individualists and the collectivists and the collectivists have been greatly helped by social media, the pop culture and BIG (from Pharma to Agri to the Military, Industrial and Educational Complexes, [not to mention all those Political Family Foundations and Trusts]) America giving lip service and paying protection money to the collectivists who are a very activist lot, have a lot of revolutionary ideas, and have been shifting the bifurcations of this chaotic system towards their cultural victory and feel it within immediate grasp (and even act like it at times). The unification and Califonication of the Nation.

But the other viewpoint doesn’t want the government there to guide them culturally (I’m from the government and I’m here to help you.) and certainly do not want revolution, I.e., fundamental transformation, With the Musk takeover of Twitter, the collectivists lost their monopoly on Social Media and their absolute control of hate speech, specifically, defining it, editing it, and censoring it, a parallel of the Lerner-ization of the government.
Along with this breaking of the information monopoly, we see the flight from the traditional mainstream media news cycle, centrist, one-party states and “woke” businesses. These businesses (and businesses are people on many levels) that paid their Dane’s Geld are now realizing that the social justice blackmail was never stop and it was bleeding them too dry to absorb the inflation of the government’s “free” money. People and the businesses they interact with on every level are reacting to their environment in ways that they see benefit them personally, their bottom line.

This is what prompted my earlier remarks, that when events, the million, billion events and interactions that go into the mob’s decision-making process, that the mind of the mob may be pulling back and swinging the other way in reaction, but that polling is not picking up on it.
However, given all of that, the pure emotion of the first black woman President overcomes any reasoning about borders, inflation, Ukraine, China or Gaza in the minds of most collectivist voters: Swifties for the Swift Boat Vote. This so handicaps Trump that it is pretty much insurmountable. The only emotion that might overcome that is their daughter being raped, pummeled in sports or passed over in the hierarchy of woke hiring by a man in drag.
And all of the other fucking nonsense like mostly peaceful riots and anti-semitism.

Trump could win.
Harris could win.
Flip a coin, just,
don’t take a poll.




Disclaimer (because the first reaction is always “You’re a [fill-in-the-blank]): I have no horse in the race, just handicapping it out loud, so to speak. I vote third party and like the majority of you, I live in a predominantly one-party region and, like most of you, our elections are civilized, peaceful, respectful of everyone involved and and efficiently and honestly conducted, so I’m not politicking. This is the political junkie’s super “cup” (nobody uses the “B” word) and I realize the passion that goes into a fan, so I’m not trying to take personal shots or be an influencer. I’m wearing neutral colors.

Royal Purple Reign
🤴🏽
Absent a massive landslide the outcome is in the hands of the Deep State. Trump fills stadiums with cheering fans. Kamala can't fill a room and serves up bowls of ignorant word salad jibber jabber, and her media rushes to report her brilliance and predicts a dead heat or a Harris victory. All of our knowledge, instincts, and historical experience, all of a sudden have no value in predicting a political outcome. There's always some miracle designed to change logical outcomes. The left is already telling us to expect an "October surprise." What did Hillary mean by that? Lord only knows.
 
Only people who attend rallies vote for that candidate.
 
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