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Climate continues to change.

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FGB said:
Well.

I have yawned my way through both sides of the climate change argument and see no reason to change my mind o the future climate.

(Full disclosure I start out from a Biblical viewpoint added to my my own research in to ancient history and climatology and a crap load of other fields that I can't even remember the names these days.)

I have watched the seasons that was so radically different when I was a small child start to blend together in to almost one...a warmer one on the whole.
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I'm only forty and a little, but at times I wonder, doesn't those people ever be outside besides running over the street from or to their cars?

Then, I have been outdoorsman my whole life, and beekeeper since age of five, and do have rather quirky but mostly reliably good memory. And my grandmother happened to manage weather monitoring site (it was a way to get phone line, back then (yes, in Soviet Union)), and we have had kept making informal recordings since. No, those aren't digitalized, nor useful by scientific standards anyway.

Suffice to say, a certain flower bloomed this year seven (!) weeks earlier than twenty to twenty five years ago, but less than a week earlier than last year, and only about two weeks before in the last decade average. Well, she's a bit of an outlier, and invasive in the first case, so probably she's still adapting to our climate (and seasons of pollinator's activity) so she's unreliable, but perhaps she's just more adaptable in general and thus a good indicator. Just about anything can be interpreted and misinterpreted, and here we are used to meteorological chaos.

(Atlantic cyclones fight Arctic continental air masses, with interventions from Black Sea once in a while. Ambient temperature gradients of over 20 degrees Celsius in mere hours aren't unheard. There's no day in the year temperature above +10 C isn't registered, and only a couple weeks no frosts are ever experienced, while extremes are in +/- 40 C range. So don't say me, it's just weather.)

Well, as long it stays moderate, we're technically among the most benefitting from this shit. Our forests grow 15% faster than fifty years ago, that's a fact recognized in the country economic planning. At the same time, there's new bugs, new snails, new fungal diseases, and a whole lot of shit like that. Well, in nature change is the only constant, always was. However, this is all about the speed of the change, not about the change overall, as such.

In my culture, my upbringing (we are keepers and guardians, routinely against overwhelming odds, through centuries of alien regimes), we see world as inherently fragile, every individual decision counts for global outcomes. So it's no surprise for me there's no question how the change come to be, it's just as obvious as it is itself.

But people who still aren't noticed we are living in a human world with basically no wildlife will find a way to claim sky isn't blue.

Can anything be done? It's a question about human nature much more than technology. Should anything be done? We are tinkering with air conditioning system of our beautiful spaceship Earth, without any manual. How it couldn't feel scary, I don't know.
 
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Hal9000_ said:
And how does that compare with deforestation worldwide?

http://sites.psu.edu/hailstrompassions/wp-content/uploads/sites/32002/2015/10/Deforestation-2.jpg
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Incidentally, we have more forest coverage now than back in 1930. And growing, thanks to rather catastrophic decline of farming after disintegration of Soviet Union. Sure, a lot of recent clearings are formally listed as forest all the same, although sure they will re-grow even if not replanted (only quality and economic value differ), almost any land here not actively used and mowed grows into forest, natural plains are rather rare oddity.

Interestingly, in your map my country is colored as deforested. Sure, it's not monolithic forest but one of the most fragmented landscapes there is, but without looking it up, our forest coverage is somewhere near forty percent or so.

Of course, it's moderate climates mixed forest in a small country, so it doesn't do a thing on global scale.
 
LupusDei said:
Incidentally, we have more forest coverage now than back in 1930. And growing, thanks to rather catastrophic decline of farming after disintegration of Soviet Union. Sure, a lot of recent clearings are formally listed as forest all the same, although sure they will re-grow even if not replanted (only quality and economic value differ), almost any land here not actively used and mowed grows into forest, natural plains are rather rare oddity.

Interestingly, in your map my country is colored as deforested. Sure, it's not monolithic forest but one of the most fragmented landscapes there is, but without looking it up, our forest coverage is somewhere near forty percent or so.

Of course, it's moderate climates mixed forest in a small country, so it doesn't do a thing on global scale.
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How long on average does it take for a new forest to reach maturity?

The collapse of the USSR was what? 28 years ago? Is that long enough for former crop or grazing land to fully grow in to new mature forest?
 
Hal9000_ said:
How long on average does it take for a new forest to reach maturity?

The collapse of the USSR was what? 28 years ago? Is that long enough for former crop or grazing land to fully grow in to new mature forest?
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Almost. While it's not a mature forest, by any rate, for certain trees it approach the optimal cutting age already. For the economic backbone of forestry here, pine/spruce planned and planted, the full cycle is 70-90 years. There's virtually no forest older, outside of nature preserves. So perhaps in that sense that map is correct, or forests might as well be considered tree farms. They do, however manage to support considerable variety of wildlife and natural diversity we love to brag about.

A lot of farmlands are in fact reclaimed wetlands. We're in one of those rare cases where widespread amelioration is necessary for farming (as opposed to irrigation), if those lands USSR invested quite a lot in (for a lot of hate, as they destroyed individual ranches, dozens of generations old, to do so, often deporting the owners to Siberia) are allowed to overgrown the amelioration system will eventually deteriorate and the land return to marshes. So our peasants receive subsidies for mowing grass once a year (controlled by satellite imagery, tree shadows are automatically excluded from payable area).
 
LupusDei said:
Almost. While it's not a mature forest, by any rate, for certain trees it approach the optimal cutting age already. For the economic backbone of forestry here, pine/spruce planned and planted, the full cycle is 70-90 years. There's virtually no forest older, outside of nature preserves. So perhaps in that sense that map is correct, or forests might as well be considered tree farms. They do, however manage to support considerable variety of wildlife and natural diversity we love to brag about.

A lot of farmlands are in fact reclaimed wetlands. We're in one of those rare cases where widespread amelioration is necessary for farming (as opposed to irrigation), if those lands USSR invested quite a lot in (for a lot of hate, as they destroyed individual ranches, dozens of generations old, to do so, often deporting the owners to Siberia) are allowed to overgrown the amelioration system will eventually deteriorate and the land return to marshes. So our peasants receive subsidies for mowing grass once a year (controlled by satellite imagery, tree shadows are automatically excluded from payable area).
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Interesting. Here in the US there has been an effort to restore wetlands. because of their effects on aquifers.
 
Hal9000_ said:
Interesting. Here in the US there has been an effort to restore wetlands. because of their effects on aquifers.
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We have rather plenty still (many are protected, though), and beavers are hard at work to restore more, hand in hand with depopulation.
 
Speaking of Russia, they just launched a portable floating nuclear power plant.

Which isn't really saying much considering there are already many ships and subs which are nuclear powered.

That nuclear powered cruise missile doesn't seem like a good idea, though.
 


How The Media Help To Destroy Rational Climate Debate

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.



"...It’s fine to present the possibility that human-caused global warming could be very damaging, which is indeed theoretically possible. But to claim that large and damaging changes have already occurred due to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is shoddy journalism. Some reporters get around the problem by saying that the latest hurricane might not be blamed on global warming directly, but it represents what we can expect more of in a warming world. Except that, even the UN IPCC is equivocal on the subject.

Sea level rise stories in the media, as far as I can tell, never mention that sea level has been rising naturally for as long as we have had global tide gauge measurements (since the 1850s). Maybe humans are responsible for a portion of the recent rise, but as is the case for essentially all climate reporting, the role of nature is seldom mentioned, and the size of the problem is almost always exaggerated. That worsening periodic tidal flooding in Miami Beach is about 50% due to sinking of reclaimed swampland is never mentioned.

There are no human fingerprints of global warming. None. Climate change is simply assumed to be mostly human-caused (which is indeed possible), while our knowledge of natural climate change is almost non-existent.

Computerized climate models are programmed based upon the assumption of human causation. The models produce human-caused climate change because they are forced to produce no warming (be in a state of ‘energy balance’) unless CO2 is added to them.

As far as we know, no one has ever been killed by human-caused climate change. Weather-related deaths have fallen dramatically — by over 90% — in the last 100 years. Whose child has been taught that in school? What journalist has been brave enough to report that good news?

In recent years I’ve had more and more people tell me that their children, grandchildren, or young acquaintances are now thoroughly convinced we are destroying the planet with our carbon dioxide emissions from burning of fossil fuels. They’ve had this message drilled into their brains through news reporting, movies, their teachers and professors, their favorite celebrities, and a handful of outspoken scientists and politicians whose knowledge of the subject is a mile wide but only inches deep..."


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GULLIBLE AND PARTISAN IS NO WAY TO GO THROUGH LIFE:
Media falls for and promotes publicity stunt.


By Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.


"...Greta is travelling across the Atlantic on what CNN describes as a “zero-emissions yacht” to attend the UN Climate Action Summit on September 23 in New York City.

To begin with, there is no such thing as a zero-emissions yacht. A huge amount of energy was required to manufacture the yacht, and it transports so few people so few miles over its lifetime the yacht is a wonderful example of the energy waste typical of the lifestyles of the wealthy elite. Four (!) people will need to fly from Europe to the U.S. to support the return of the yacht to Europe after Greta is delivered there.

The trip is nothing more than a publicity stunt, and it leads to further disinformation regarding global energy use. In fact, it works much better as satire. Imagine if everyone who traveled across the ocean used yachts rather than jet airplanes. More energy would be required, not less, due to the manufacture of tens of thousands of extra yachts which inefficiently carry few passengers on relatively few, very slow trips. In contrast, the average jet aircraft will travel 50 million miles in its lifetime. Most people don’t realize that travel by jet is now more fuel efficient than travel by car.

The Greta boat trip story is in so many ways the absolute worst way to raise awareness of climate issues, unless you know knothing of science, engineering, or economics. It’s like someone who is against eating meat consuming three McDonalds cheeseburgers to show how we should change our diets. It makes zero sense.

I could give many more examples of the media helping to destroy the public’s ability to have a rational discussion about climate change, how much is caused by humans, and what can or should be done about it.

Instead, the media chooses to publish only the most headline-grabbing stories, and the climate change issue is then cast as two extremes: either you believe the “real scientists” who all agree we are destroying the planet, or you are a knuckle-dragging 8th-grade educated climate denier with guns and racist tendencies...."

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Michael "Piltdown" Mann Loses Libel Lawsuit:
Must Pay Court Costs




“Michael Mann should be in the State Pen, not Penn State.”
-Tim Ball, Ph.D.
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"...The story of Ball’s vindication, and of Mann’s shame, is a somewhat long one, and turns on Mann’s flat refusal to share publicly the data and methodology by which he constructed the Hockey Stick graph. In about 2003 a very talented Canadian mathematician named Steve McIntyre began an effort to replicate the Mann/Bradley/Hughes work. McIntyre started with a request to Mann to provide the underlying data and methodologies (computer programming) that generated the graph. To his surprise, McIntyre was met not with prompt compliance (which would be the sine qua non of actual science) but rather with hostility and evasion. McIntyre started a blog called Climate Audit and began writing lengthy posts about his extensive and unsuccessful efforts to reconstruct the Hockey Stick. Although McIntyre never completely succeeded in perfectly reconstructing the Hockey Stick, over time he gradually established that Mann et al. had adopted a complex methodology that selectively emphasized certain temperature proxies over others in order to reverse-engineer the "shaft" of the stick to get a pre-determined desired outcome.

Then came the so-called ClimateGate disclosures in 2009. These were emails between and among many of the main promoters of the climate scare (dubbed by McIntyre the "Hockey Team"). Included in the Climategate releases were emails relating specifically to the methodology of how the graph was created. From the emails, skeptical researchers were then able to identify some of the precise data series that had been used by Mann et al. Astoundingly, they discovered that the graph's creators had truncated inconvenient data in order to get the desired depiction..."


https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/503a5bade4b0b543ed240317/1566859538224-SLNNMB36B2VFP8YCE80R/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kOnm-bYH_DG0w7yQQWN0zGZZw-zPPgdn4jUwVcJE1ZvWQUxwkmyExglNqGp0IvTJZUJFbgE-7XRK3dMEBRBhUpwHeqIuLgmA32vLVBxdAgjkW4XNdvkNRVBvx41rMc5cvaI_iCaqZRjwIe7I1NiGGgg/Hide+the+Decline+graph.png?format=750w




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A fabrication; a clear case of scientific fraud (brought to you by Michael "Piltdown" Mann):

https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/503a5bade4b0b543ed240317/1566856695655-LIEKYSL2I9QS9MTBXBTX/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kKB9UHg98lZaSTVBRCBcWvNZw-zPPgdn4jUwVcJE1ZvWQUxwkmyExglNqGp0IvTJZUJFbgE-7XRK3dMEBRBhUpyLfbX1PIdsbHvQOEkiG3s_8q58M0XU8gGWpUuVPEkLaG6CqxT4NN4tN_dWbV_FOdI/Manns-hockey-stick.gif?format=750w


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In yet one more incidence of "Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds" it's come to this: people are actually giving credence to the pronouncements of a 16-year old girl.





"...Thunberg says, at 11 years old, she became depressed and stopped talking and eating.

GRETA: Later on, I was diagnosed with Asperger's syndrome, OCD and selective mutism...

GRETA: We need to keep the fossil fuels in the ground. And we need to focus on equity. And if solutions within the system are so impossible to find, then maybe we should change the system itself.

BRADY: Thunberg has critics. Some have been cruel, even referring to her mental health issues... Andrew Bolt called Thunberg, quote, "the deeply disturbed messiah of the global warming movement."



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Naturally, the media has fallen for the publicity stunt notwithstanding the palpably ludicrous idiocy.

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Global Warming: Is There Anything It Can't Do?

by Francis Menton, J.D.
(Francis Menton a/k/a "Manhattan Contrarian" is a Yale College graduate and retired partner of Wilkie, Farr & Gallagher LLP)




"...is there actually a measurable trend somewhere in the world showing that so-called “extreme” weather conditions are increasing? Of course, it’s the opposite. The people at AC (Alarmist Claim) Research have just updated their work on fact checking many of the usual alarmist claims about global warming, from droughts and floods to sea level rise to hurricanes and tornadoes and many others. The summary report, with a revision date of May 20, 2019, can be found here. The more detailed report as to the sub-topic of droughts and floods can be found here. From the introduction on the droughts and floods topic:

In testimony before Congress Professor Roger Pielke, Jr. said: “It is misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally. Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the U.S. over the last century.”​

Go to the link for an abundance of charts and graphs showing U.S. and worldwide trends in droughts and floods, which universally are either flat or downward, not upward. The article in The Economist mentions specifically the Sahel region of Africa as one place where strife is supposedly increasing due to long-term drought. They seem completely unaware that the Sahel specifically has been experiencing increasing rainfall over the past several decades. Here is a 2011 Briefing Paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation specifically on the subject of that trend in the Sahel, titled “The Sahel is Greening.” Excerpt:

The Sahara is actually shrinking, with vegetation arising on land where there was nothing but sand and rocks before. The southern border of the Sahara has been retreating since the early 1980s, making farming viable again in what were some of the most arid parts of Africa. There has been a spectacular regeneration of vegetation in northern Burkina Faso, which was devastated by drought and advancing deserts 20 years ago. . . . Vegetation has also increased significantly in the past 15 years in southern Mauritania, north-western Niger, central Chad, much of Sudan and parts of Eritrea.​

For more recent data on Sahel rainfall and greening, see this April 2019 article from Nature. But then, who needs facts when there’s a narrative to advance?..."


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Fucking NPR is out there broadcasting flat-out lies about hurricane activity.

It is un-fucking-believable. It's baldfaced bullshit. It's not even close.
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https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/wp-content/uploads/maueflorencechart.png





The Society of Professional Journalists’ Code of Ethics clearly states,


first and foremost:

“Ethical journalism should be accurate and fair. Journalists should be honest and courageous in gathering, reporting and interpreting information.”​

And specifically directs journalists to:

Label advocacy and commentary​
Click to expand...




Is this why they're doing it?:

https://www.cjr.org/covering_climate_now


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every day i see there's another shooting and just want to say, "hey, fuckers, try something original! blow some shit up or something!"
 
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