For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

Would you vote for Trump again if he promised to continue this approach?

Fucking over Ukraine? Nope. I honestly thought all the yap yap yap before the election was just rhetoric to play to the MAGA crown, but it seems Tucker Carlson's bullshit got to him. I had hoped people like Rubio and Kellogg would inject a bit of sensibility into what's going on, but with Trump's US Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, referring to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine I can't see this happening.

An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document. The Istanbul protocols emerged from Russia-Ukraine negotiations in March and April 2022 as Ukraine was still reeling from the initial Russian invasion and do not reflect the realities of the situation today. The draft agreement included the following key provisions that would destroy Ukraine's ability to defend itself and prohibit any state from helping Ukraine do so:

▪️ Ukraine would have had to amend its constitution to remove the clause committing Ukraine to NATO membership, add Ukraine’s commitment to permanent neutrality; and make Russian an official language of Ukraine.

▪️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces were to be capped at 85,000 and restricted to 342 tanks, 519 artillery pieces, and missiles with ranges under 40 kilometers.

▪️ The provision to Ukraine of any foreign weapons including missiles of any type, armed forces, and formations was to be banned.

▪️ The US, the UK, China, France, and Russia were to guarantee Ukraine’s neutrality, but all parties were to have to agree on a response to any violation, giving Russia a veto over any action.

▪️ The guarantors were to commit to ending permanently all bilateral security agreements with Ukraine including those regarding the provision of military aid.

These demands, which Vladimir Putin has often reiterated, amount to complete Ukrainian capitulation, not a sustainable peace in the interests of the US or Europe, to say nothing of Ukraine. Witkoff also stated that “deals only work… when they’re good for all the parties… that’s the pathway we’re on here.” Istanbul cannot be the basis for any such agreement, and if that's where they're at, Trump's initiative will go down in flames.

So no, if Trump goes down this path, I would not vote for him again and I will not vote for Vance in 2028 either.
 
As for Ukrainian sentiment, Denys Prokopenko (CO of Azov Brigade) sums up the attitude of the Ukrainian military - they will continue to fight without US aid if necessary...., Ukraine will triumph in the end, but rather than what could have been out strongest European ally, America will have created a powerful state that does not trust us and instead is far more closely aligned with Turkey - an alliance that will dominate the Black Sea and the Caucasus.

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So no, if Trump goes down this path, I would not vote for him again and I will not vote for Vance in 2028 either.
I appreciate your indepth response. I was honestly just curious if the topic was a make or break with you. Thanks.

The approach to Ukraine is disgusting and dishonorable to me. I didn't expect such an abrupt support of Putin and dismissal of our allies. I'm still working to understand how any politician could pivot like this. Before now, I gave more benefit of the doubt to 47..... Which went further than many ..... Because I want to be patient and understanding of current events.... But fuck all of he just ran it over with a truck
 
I appreciate your indepth response. I was honestly just curious if the topic was a make or break with you. Thanks.

The approach to Ukraine is disgusting and dishonorable to me. I didn't expect such an abrupt support of Putin and dismissal of our allies. I'm still working to understand how any politician could pivot like this. Before now, I gave more benefit of the doubt to 47..... Which went further than many ..... Because I want to be patient and understanding of current events.... But fuck all of he just ran it over with a truck

I'm 100% in agreement with you. For me, it's definitely make or break. And I agree that what Trump is doing here is both disgusting and dishionorable, and I'd go a bit further and say it's downright dangerous to the interests of the USA. Biden and his adherence to the 1994 agreement was wishy-washy, but at least he offered help - and while I was critical of what the Biden Admin was doing, it was the extent of that help and the political gaming. Anything Biden wrong, and there was a lot, pales into insignificance in comparison to Trump's betrayal.

Trump is reneging completely on an agreement that the USA signed, and not only renegeing, he is activly breaking it by using extortion, and THAT is even more disgusting. Worse, in doing so he has invalidated the worth of every international agreement we are party to, now and in future. We were a bit flakey before, but who will now trust a thing we sign?

Nobody in their right minds.

Personally, I gave the benefit of the doubt to Trump to, obviously rather more than you did. But yeah, he's run over that good faith with a truck, absolutely, and is busy guaranteeiing I wont vote for Vance in 2028. And I have emailed those sentiments to my House rep and Senator.

Like I said before, nuclear proliferation here we come.....and I have no doubts that Ukraine is already working on that one. They'd be silly not to at this point. This is existential for them, and you do what you have to do.....
 
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Sweden to Supply Ukraine with Air Defense Systems worth $113 mln Including Tridon Mk 2​

Sweden has previously supplied the Ukrainian Armed Forces with short-range RBS 70 anti-aircraft missile systems, so these systems are already known to Ukraine’s military. However, in the case of the Tridon Mk 2 anti-aircraft artillery system with a firing range of up to 12 kilometers, this is a completely new development, the first user of which will be the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

BAE Systems represented Tridon Mk2 anti-aircraft system during the Eurosatory 2024 defense exhibition. The claimed range of Tridon Mk2 is up to 12 kilometers is, which is essentially the same as for a short-range SAM system. The Tridon Mk2 is powered by 40-mm Bofors 40 Mk4 autocannon, which is widely used in the navies of European countries and has proven to have the declared range characteristics in practice. The declared rate of fire for the Tridon Mk2 is 200-300 rounds per minute. Programmable Bofors 3P munitions are used to destroy air targets. All this makes this anti-aircraft weapon a kind of budget analog of a short-range air defense system.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/swed...orth_113_mln_including_tridon_mk_2-13635.html

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Ukraine’s Top Military Leadership: We Are Starting to Win and Russia Is Starting to Lose
This is why Putin is so desperate to use Trump to force an end to the war on favorable terms to Russia.

Ukraine’s national military leadership headed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, on Sunday projected confidence and even cautious notes of optimism about the future direction of their country’s fight against Russia’s invasion, contradicting recent White House claims their country faces imminent defeat by Moscow. Zelensky and members of the Ukrainian senior national security team made the comments at the conference “Ukraine. Year 2025” in the capital, Kyiv. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s national military intelligence agency, HUR, said that his group’s collection assets in and outside Russia had strong evidence that Russian arms production during 2025 has flatlined and is likely to contract, because of parts and labor shortages.

Russia’s government plans in 2025 to induct into military service 100,000 men less than in 2024, Budanov said. Russian combat units already are chronically short of soldiers and the cut will worsen the Kremlin’s ability to deliver troop replacements to the front, he said. Combine that with Ukraine getting better and better at killing more and more Russians and the outcome is not favorable for Russia. Budanov also said Russian shell production was only able to produce about half of all Russian army needs. North Korean deliveries are filling that gap, but Pyonyang’s ammunition reserves are limited, he said.

Russian forces were nearing exhaustion due to heavy losses, particularly in men and battlefield heavy weapons like tanks and artillery. “Russia needs a ceasefire to respite in order to restore the economy, accumulate supplies, and prepare the army,” Ivashchenko (the head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service the SVR) said. “Today we understand what is happening inside the Russian Federation, what plans and processes there are. Plans for Ukraine, plans for other states. We have studied and continue to study the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of long-term plans, we are aware of these plans at least until 2030,” Ivashchenko said.

Ukrainian army commander-in-chief General Oleksandr Syrsky said that Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign into Russia would intensify and hit deeper into Russia in 2025. The combat capacity of Ukraine’s ground forces is growing, but Russia is far from defeated, he said. “Difficult times and new challenges await us ahead. But we have a combat-ready army that will continue the fight,” Syrsky said. “The enemy’s objective is unchanged – the capture of all of Ukraine.”

During a question-and-answer session with reporters at the end of the presentation, Zelensky said that media claims about Ukraine’s alleged near-total dependence on American assistance were inaccurate, and that, in fact, Ukraine’s war effort is roughly equally supported by the national economy, allied countries, and the US. The American contribution is significant but by no means dominant, Zelensky said. Independent fact-checks have generally confirmed the numbers advanced by Zelensky, and found no credible support for the figures put forward by Trump. Kyiv will not accept peace terms dictated by the US or anyone else, and Ukraine is able to fight on if necessary, Zelensky said. “Deciding on Ukraine without us is impossible. We will not recognize any agreements made in that format,” he said. “It is impossible to end the war this week.”

Seems to me Ukraine is sending an indirect message to Trump here that he should get real.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47737
 
I'm 100% in agreement with you. For me, it's definitely make or break. And I agree that what Trump is doing here is both disgusting and dishionorable, and I'd go a bit further and say it's downright dangerous to the interests of the USA. Biden and his adherence to the 1994 agreement was wishy-washy, but at least he offered help - and while I was critical of what the Biden Admin was doing, it was the extent of that help and the political gaming. Anything Biden wrong, and there was a lot, pales into insignificance in comparison to Trump's betrayal.

Trump is reneging completely on an agreement that the USA signed, and not only renegeing, he is activly breaking it by using extortion, and THAT is even more disgusting. Worse, in doing so he has invalidated the worth of every international agreement we are party to, now and in future. We were a bit flakey before, but who will now trust a thing we sign?

Nobody in their right minds.

Personally, I gave the benefit of the doubt to Trump to, obviously rather more than you did. But yeah, he's run over that good faith with a truck, absolutely, and is busy guaranteeiing I wont vote for Vance in 2028. And I have emailed those sentiments to my House rep and Senator.

Like I said before, nuclear proliferation here we come.....and I have no doubts that Ukraine is already working on that one. They'd be silly not to at this point. This is existential for them, and you do what you have to do.....
I follow your post quite closely. The Russians are building up their war machine. The interior politics in Russia is if any Russian citizens complains about the invasion into Ukraine its viewed as breaking the law, and we all know what happens in Russia when ya complain. I'm not looking for an argument but there needs to be a conversation, a plan as what does the West do if Russia overruns Ukraine. What happens then. Does the west put boots on the ground? Biden's feckless foreign policy has made the situation unattainable. Failure to give the Ukrainians every weapon system at the very beginning has given the Russians the ability to re-arm. Biden never took the advantage we had it. He did the same thing to Israel, fortunately Israel had the foresight to take matters in their own hand and fight their was their way.

Just maybe, creating an economic mining agreement for precious metals and other trade pacts with Ukraine may PROVIDE an equivalent to a NATO umbrella where American industry will be firmly planted on Ukraine soil.

Trump saying that Ukraine started the was was stupid, and I believe Trump knows that too. Trump's been pretty tough on Putin in the past and I don't believe he'll accept a capitulation. I also read that the Europeans gave financial and military assistance to Ukraine in the form of loans, the US just gave it without any return on investment.
 
I follow your post quite closely. The Russians are building up their war machine. The interior politics in Russia is if any Russian citizens complains about the invasion into Ukraine its viewed as breaking the law, and we all know what happens in Russia when ya complain. I'm not looking for an argument but there needs to be a conversation, a plan as what does the West do if Russia overruns Ukraine. What happens then. Does the west put boots on the ground? Biden's feckless foreign policy has made the situation unattainable. Failure to give the Ukrainians every weapon system at the very beginning has given the Russians the ability to re-arm. Biden never took the advantage we had it. He did the same thing to Israel, fortunately Israel had the foresight to take matters in their own hand and fight their was their way.

Just maybe, creating an economic mining agreement for precious metals and other trade pacts with Ukraine may PROVIDE an equivalent to a NATO umbrella where American industry will be firmly planted on Ukraine soil.

Trump saying that Ukraine started the was was stupid, and I believe Trump knows that too. Trump's been pretty tough on Putin in the past and I don't believe he'll accept a capitulation. I also read that the Europeans gave financial and military assistance to Ukraine in the form of loans, the US just gave it without any return on investment.

I'm not sure of all the ins and outs of loans vs grants but I think the EU funding has largely been grants and internal funding between EU countries buying stuff from each other to send to Ukraine - the Czech ammo initiative being one example. US investment would be great, but not based on extortion the way Trump has been attempting.

I think what we see now is Ukraine going from strength to strength, not least of which is now their huge edge in drone warfare. THAT started out very ad-hoc, with small drone teams pretty much self-created and funded by Ukrainian Army units - and that was formalized. It's going beyond that now - they created "drone battalions" which work with the front line ZSU battalions and brigades, and now they are expanding these into Drone Brigades - and with hundreds of startups all innovating and working together - I read somewhere they expect to produce 4 million drones in 2025 now, and it may go beyond that. The last couple of attacks they have launched, for example, have been precded and accompanied by huge waves of drones and they are getting more and more capable. Those flamer-drones that use 3000F magnesium or something that melts thru tanks and does horrific things to Russians. Drones with machineguns for trench clearing, not to mention all the FPV drones taking out one Russian at a time. Casualty evac drones, Resupply drones. Drones laying mines....you name it, Ukraine has them and to a certain extent they are superceding artillery - and that is about all Ukraine is now reliant on the US for - artillery ammo and air defence - and Ukraine is apparantly working on a Patriot analog, Which WILL be very battle tested.

That, and the ZSU is getting more armor and equipment constantly. This is building up the strength of their combat unit - and the manpower, organizational and training issues are sorting themselves out even as the Russians continue to be thrown in with no training. Kursk for example - the ZSU is slaughterimg Russians and makimg opportunistic advances. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they do this again in Bryansk, pulling troops away from the Donbass and Kherson. And at some stage, that Bridge is gonna go boom-badda-boom and Crimea will be isolated......

I don't see any chance of Russia actually overrruning Ukraine at all here. And with the scale of this war, EU boots on the ground would be next to useless. The only armies big enough are Poland and Finland, and neither of those will go in.
 

Ukraine Developing Patriot-Inspired Air Defense System​

Ukraine has been heavily reliant on military aid from Western nations, particularly the U.S., to keep up its supplies of air defense systems and the vital interceptor missiles. Even with waves of military aid packages, Ukraine's stocks of missiles have sometimes fallen short of what is needed to shield important sites and cities. With Trump's taking the reins, and his attitude towards Ukraine, Ukraine's access to military aid flowing from Washington is in doubt. If Ukraine develops its own air defense system, this would ease Kyiv's independence on the likes of the U.S. for the protection of its population centers and vital infrastructure.

Ukraine is developing its own air defence system with capabilities equivalent to the American Patriot system, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has said. The Ukrainian army chief said it was crucial for Kyiv to produce its own defenses now that Russia is using new weapons against Ukraine, like the experimental Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile Moscow fired at a Ukrainian military facility in November. Umerov said in a separate statement this month that the U.K. will fund Ukraine's production of air defense systems and long-range weapons. "...I suppose that this installation may not be a replica, but in terms of its certain characteristics, a little simpler than the Patriot, because we understand that Americans have invested billions of dollars for so many years. Of course, we can copy. Yes, it may look a little funny, but it should work. If after the war there is such a capacity to provide every city, every settlement, military location with such installations, then of course, this should be emphasized,"

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-patriot-style-air-defenses-russia-oreshnik-irbm-2017594
 
I follow your post quite closely. The Russians are building up their war machine. The interior politics in Russia is if any Russian citizens complains about the invasion into Ukraine its viewed as breaking the law, and we all know what happens in Russia when ya complain. I'm not looking for an argument but there needs to be a conversation, a plan as what does the West do if Russia overruns Ukraine. What happens then. Does the west put boots on the ground? Biden's feckless foreign policy has made the situation unattainable. Failure to give the Ukrainians every weapon system at the very beginning has given the Russians the ability to re-arm. Biden never took the advantage we had it. He did the same thing to Israel, fortunately Israel had the foresight to take matters in their own hand and fight their was their way.

Just maybe, creating an economic mining agreement for precious metals and other trade pacts with Ukraine may PROVIDE an equivalent to a NATO umbrella where American industry will be firmly planted on Ukraine soil.

Trump saying that Ukraine started the was was stupid, and I believe Trump knows that too. Trump's been pretty tough on Putin in the past and I don't believe he'll accept a capitulation. I also read that the Europeans gave financial and military assistance to Ukraine in the form of loans, the US just gave it without any return on investment.
"Trump says things and I believe him"

¯⁠\⁠(⁠°⁠_⁠o⁠)⁠/⁠¯

Trump parrots Putin.

Zelensky was the originator of the mineral deal.
 
"Trump says things and I believe him"

¯⁠\⁠(⁠°⁠_⁠o⁠)⁠/⁠¯

Trump parrots Putin.

Zelensky was the originator of the mineral deal.
In a perfect world, they'd carve that mantra on his tombstone when ICantHelpIt shuffles off the mortal coil.
Here Lies ICanHelp
Trump Said Things
He Believed Him
Come to think of it, they ought to carve that onto everyone who did not get vaxxed and subsequently died of Covid-19
 
Zelensky was the originator of the mineral deal.

Yes, he saw it as a way to give the US a vested interest to have boots on the ground. He failed to account for Trump's lack of ethics and his transactional approach.
 
I'm not sure of all the ins and outs of loans vs grants but I think the EU funding has largely been grants and internal funding between EU countries buying stuff from each other to send to Ukraine - the Czech ammo initiative being one example. US investment would be great, but not based on extortion the way Trump has been attempting.

I think what we see now is Ukraine going from strength to strength, not least of which is now their huge edge in drone warfare. THAT started out very ad-hoc, with small drone teams pretty much self-created and funded by Ukrainian Army units - and that was formalized. It's going beyond that now - they created "drone battalions" which work with the front line ZSU battalions and brigades, and now they are expanding these into Drone Brigades - and with hundreds of startups all innovating and working together - I read somewhere they expect to produce 4 million drones in 2025 now, and it may go beyond that. The last couple of attacks they have launched, for example, have been precded and accompanied by huge waves of drones and they are getting more and more capable. Those flamer-drones that use 3000F magnesium or something that melts thru tanks and does horrific things to Russians. Drones with machineguns for trench clearing, not to mention all the FPV drones taking out one Russian at a time. Casualty evac drones, Resupply drones. Drones laying mines....you name it, Ukraine has them and to a certain extent they are superceding artillery - and that is about all Ukraine is now reliant on the US for - artillery ammo and air defence - and Ukraine is apparantly working on a Patriot analog, Which WILL be very battle tested.

That, and the ZSU is getting more armor and equipment constantly. This is building up the strength of their combat unit - and the manpower, organizational and training issues are sorting themselves out even as the Russians continue to be thrown in with no training. Kursk for example - the ZSU is slaughterimg Russians and makimg opportunistic advances. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they do this again in Bryansk, pulling troops away from the Donbass and Kherson. And at some stage, that Bridge is gonna go boom-badda-boom and Crimea will be isolated......

I don't see any chance of Russia actually overrruning Ukraine at all here. And with the scale of this war, EU boots on the ground would be next to useless. The only armies big enough are Poland and Finland, and neither of those will go in.
I wouldn't call it extortion. A return on investment for the American people. 37 trillion in debt.

The 1994 agreement crashed and burned during the Bush, Obama days. I find it difficult to hold Trump to that standard when they didn't.

In my humble opinion it's not about weapon systems, it's about the 4 to 1 advantage the Russians have in manpower today and future deployments. N Korea as well as China figure's into this equation. Ukrainians are fighting a brilliant war but to what end. People are dying by the thousands. No country wants to put boots on the ground but are willing to fight a proxy war up to the last Ukrainian. Need Putin and Zelensky to talk but a foundation for talks need to happen. More weapons and more money is not the answer. There needs to be a give and takes. We can hope someone takes out Putin.
 
In a perfect world, they'd carve that mantra on his tombstone when ICantHelpIt shuffles off the mortal coil.
Here Lies ICanHelp
Trump Said Things
He Believed Him
Come to think of it, they ought to carve that onto everyone who did not get vaxxed and subsequently died of Covid-19
In a perfect world you'd pull your head out of your ass!!
 
"Trump says things and I believe him"

¯⁠\⁠(⁠°⁠_⁠o⁠)⁠/⁠¯

Trump parrots Putin.

Zelensky was the originator of the mineral deal.
Hey dipshit, what's your solution? You don't have one!!! Biden fucked up Afghanistan, tried to fuck up Israel and has definitely fucked up Ukraine. All those fuckups stem from Biden's feckless foreign policy. I didn't defend Trump dipshit, I wrote that Trump fucked up blaming Zelensky for starting the war. What pisses me of is you just refuse to stop licking Biden's ass. The initiative for an outright win has passed, time to talk. Did Biden attempt to talk? The only talk from Biden's mouth was maybe it's only a minor incursion, and how'd that work out.

2 1/2 years ago I wrote "in for the penny in for the pound". Either get all in or get out. Biden dragged his feet at the worst possible time. Shit his pants when Putin threatened nukes. Biden didn't want to escalate the war while the Russians invaded with hundreds of thousands of troops. Putin was already escalating and Biden was napping. I remember in the beginning, mile long columns stranded mostly because of Putin's arrogance. Ukraine's best chance was then. Taking out those columns then! Europeans were also napping. How long did it take Germany to send tanks.
 
In my humble opinion it's not about weapon systems, it's about the 4 to 1 advantage the Russians have in manpower today and future deployments. N Korea as well as China figure's into this equation. Ukrainians are fighting a brilliant war but to what end. People are dying by the thousands. No country wants to put boots on the ground but are willing to fight a proxy war up to the last Ukrainian. Need Putin and Zelensky to talk but a foundation for talks need to happen. More weapons and more money is not the answer. There needs to be a give and takes. We can hope someone takes out Putin.

The 4:1 "advantage" means very little. Ukraine is now inflicting losses at 10:1 and it's improving. Also, while Ukraine has had mobilization and training issues, those are being worked on and resolved and the ZSU is gaining in #'s, and also becoming more effective with those trainng improvements and reorg into a corps structure. Not there yet, but they are on the right path, and as they get more IFV's and armor that will only improve. Note also the ZSU is now regularly flying air strikes on Russian front line units - as Russian air defences are teadily degraded, we will see more of these. Note also, the graph below. The numbers are worsening for Russia, and as mentioned above somewjere, 100k fewer men are available to mobilize overo 2025. The bell curve for Russia has hit its peak and its down all the way.

Also also - donkey based logistics....need I say more.

Also, Russian artillery is increasingly inaccurate. Poor training, and Nork ammo. Both help, and a miss is a miss is a miss. It makes a loud noise, that's all.

Add in Ukraine is taking out Russia's European oil infratsructure - with consequent drops in foreign exchange. The Russian economy is teetering on the edge of collapse...

Now lets throw in constantly improving Ukrainian drone and light crusise missile capability....those hits are getting better and more accurate. Now, think about a few things here, and these are possibilities. Ukraine has a lot of data on things like Russian pilots - including home addresses. Probably could do the same with military industruial workers. Drone bomg their houses at 1am when they're no working and home in bed - take the workers and pilots out and who will do the work or fly the planes? Do it in one massive strike - a couple of thousand drones targeting one factory or squadron - THAT would have an effect. And save on the war crime trials too.

As for people dying by the thousands? That's Russian soldiers doing that, and THAT is good. The tens of thousands would be better, and far more effective at ending the war

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Also
Sweden - 1.8 billion
Denmark - 280 million
Norway - military assistance €2 billion
Norway - €1 billion in humanitarian support.
 
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No wonder Russia needs Trump to surrender Ukraine, Russia isn’t going to last much longer. It doesn’t look good for Russia, between their crippled economy, loss of soldiers, and their ever evaporating Soviet stockpiles.


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