DeluxAuto
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Shut the fuck up, Dave.
For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine
- Thread starter Rightguide
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ChloeTzang
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Trump is sparking a huge global realignment, whether he intended to or not.
Friedrich Merz is very likely to promote the idea of a new defense alliance to replace NATO, which would be the biggest geopolitical shift in recent decades. In this case, France and the United Kingdom, two nuclear powers capable of guaranteeing the continent's security, will take the lead. Germany, as the strongest economy in Europe, will be the main driver of funding and organization. The new alliance will bring together key European countries, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Poland, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states. Together, they will be able to form a military power with more than 1.5 million troops, the strongest navies and air forces in Europe, and a large economic foundation that will allow for hundreds of billions of euros in defense investments.
Add to that a long and very violent military tradition (Britain, Germany, cough cough...) that can be exceedingly ruthless when they get let off the leash and the global balance of power will dramatically change. After walking away from Europe like this, the USA will be on its own when it comes to any confrontation with China. The US will lose its dominant role in European security, while the EU will gain real military sovereignty. It's more than likely that, having seen how unreliable the US is, Australia will align with Europe (taking New Zealand along with it), while Japan and South Korea will reach some sort of accommodation with China.
That leaves Taiwan up shit creek without a paddle. They might as well start negotiations with China now, or do an Israel and both go nuclear and militarize like crazy. Trump has made it plain the USA will not go to war over some insignifiant little county. Xi has to be laughing his head off.
For Russia, the emergence of such a European force will be a serious challenge, as it will have a real rival that is not tied to Washington and has its own interests on the continent. Russia will be caught between a resurgent Europe (which will bring Ukraine under it's umbrella) and China. It Russia doesn't disintegrate first, and then it's China that will seize the spoils, and given geography and a lack of allies, there won't be a thing the USA will be able to do.
We do live in interesting times.
Friedrich Merz is very likely to promote the idea of a new defense alliance to replace NATO, which would be the biggest geopolitical shift in recent decades. In this case, France and the United Kingdom, two nuclear powers capable of guaranteeing the continent's security, will take the lead. Germany, as the strongest economy in Europe, will be the main driver of funding and organization. The new alliance will bring together key European countries, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Poland, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states. Together, they will be able to form a military power with more than 1.5 million troops, the strongest navies and air forces in Europe, and a large economic foundation that will allow for hundreds of billions of euros in defense investments.
Add to that a long and very violent military tradition (Britain, Germany, cough cough...) that can be exceedingly ruthless when they get let off the leash and the global balance of power will dramatically change. After walking away from Europe like this, the USA will be on its own when it comes to any confrontation with China. The US will lose its dominant role in European security, while the EU will gain real military sovereignty. It's more than likely that, having seen how unreliable the US is, Australia will align with Europe (taking New Zealand along with it), while Japan and South Korea will reach some sort of accommodation with China.
That leaves Taiwan up shit creek without a paddle. They might as well start negotiations with China now, or do an Israel and both go nuclear and militarize like crazy. Trump has made it plain the USA will not go to war over some insignifiant little county. Xi has to be laughing his head off.
For Russia, the emergence of such a European force will be a serious challenge, as it will have a real rival that is not tied to Washington and has its own interests on the continent. Russia will be caught between a resurgent Europe (which will bring Ukraine under it's umbrella) and China. It Russia doesn't disintegrate first, and then it's China that will seize the spoils, and given geography and a lack of allies, there won't be a thing the USA will be able to do.
We do live in interesting times.
ChloeTzang
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Bite me.
DeluxAuto
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Not with your dick and blame it on Derpy.
ChloeTzang
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Europe working together........
icanhelp1
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Why don’t you wait for the outcome of peace negotiations. The US voted with Russia but for different reasons.
Lance_Castro
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icanhelp1
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Interesting article. I find it interesting that Germany didn’t take an interest in NATO defense in the past. We’re, on many occasions demanded they pay their fair share. They were closer aligned with Russia. The US warned them about their dependence on Russia energy.
https://www.dw.com/en/why-germany-isnt-leading-europes-defense/video-71585314
Lance_Castro
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I think it is more accurate to say that as the EU’s leading economy and de facto leader, Germany took in more immigrants, led the way in going green, eliminating trade barriers and in reducing military involvements in favor of talking to and working with others.
And yes as part of that bought cheap russian gas, as did the rest of the EU and others.
This trend lasted through the Merkel ( conservative CDU party ) years , but became a bit too lefty, so now Germans have voted CDU again.
icanhelp1
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As I remember correctly Trump was really turned off by the EU during the Iran sanctions. The EU and NATO partners railed against Trumps sanctions against Iran. The EU wanted to continue trade with Iran which pissed Trump off. The EU hasn’t exactly been friendly towards the US. I pretty much agree with your assessment but I think it goes deeper than that. Germany, which has lagged behind is now realizing how really far behind they are. Trump told them long ago, as far back as 2017, to get their asses in gear and they just ignored him. Now they’re blustering about a new EU defense pack, we’ll, they should take care of the one they have.
I found this video to be an interesting take.
ll74
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47 supports Russia and Putin. Defend that.
Lance_Castro
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your point of view is blindly trumpmerican, which makes you pro-russian appeasement.
ChloeTzang
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THAT is what concerns me. It's so blatant that it lends credence to the conspiracy theory of him being a real Manchurian candidate, but I don't think it's that at all. I suspect this whole approach boils down to Trump being infuriated with the way Biden and the Democrats used Uraine against him, and Zelensky and Ukraine were not astute enough regarding US internal politics to carefully cultivate both sides of the US domestic political equation. They should have hired Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson as consultants. Combine that with Trump being both pig-headed, ego-driven and buddies with Tucker Carlson.....
Now we just have to hope that the reality of Russian duplicity sinks in before he makes a bigger mistake than he already has.
icanhelp1
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Not at all. The opportunity here is monumental. Both sides have suffered great losses and many believe we're at a crossroad where peace negotiations if conducted and facilitated by a strong nation could get the two parties to at least agree to a cease fire. Zelensky will be at the table and both can file their grievances with each other. The US is the only country that can facilitate such a negotiations. All this talk about Trump not abiding by the NATO treaty is hogwash. NATO is a treaty that is codified into law.
We're dealing with a country that has 5000+ nuclear warheads which has to be handled delicately. Putin is a murderer no doubt and holding him accountable for war crimes is fine, but in the real world he isn't going before the ICJ or ICC the anytime soon. Trump blusters a lot, I've learned to watch what he does not what he says. I don't believe most people where aware of how severe the sanctions were against Iran. Don't believe many people were aware of the battle for the Conoco oil fields. I believe Putin believes Trump is an unpredictable nutcase. That's a good thing.
ChloeTzang
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EU offers its own ‘win-win’ minerals deal to Ukraine
The European Union offered its own agreement on "critical materials" to Ukraine on Monday, just as U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Washington was close to inking a deal with Kyiv for the rights to its vast natural resources.Europe's Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné said he'd pitched the rival proposal to Ukrainian officials he met in Kyiv during a visit by the European Commission to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And he noted pointedly: "The added value Europe offers is that we will never demand a deal that's not mutually beneficial."
And there's one in your eye, Trump. Now we're into a bidding war.....
https://www.politico.eu/article/critical-minerals-rare-earths-deal-eu-not-donald-trump/
ll74
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47 has publicly stated that he's going to give Putin everything he wants.
There's nothing unpredictable about that
ChloeTzang
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Disclaimer: I copied and pasted. LOL
Note for Il74. Don't bother. I know what you're going to say. LOL multiple times.
(Actually) Russia is at it's Most Fragile, Right Now
By Benjamin Cook
Feb 25
The European military logistics and capability required to penetrate Russian lines and send them into chaos isn’t big. What it requires is ‘leadership’ - which is immense. Remember, the EU (1993) is a post-Soviet (1991) organization built to foster compromise, not leadership and determination.
Russia's position in its ongoing war in Ukraine exhibits significant fragility across multiple critical dimensions, including severe military setbacks, deepening economic pressures, worsening demographic crisis, and unsustainable equipment losses. Despite evidence of Russian resilience—such as limited economic adaptation and persistent territorial control—these strengths are increasingly overshadowed by systemic vulnerabilities. A modestly sized but well-organized military coalition could exploit Russia's thinly stretched lines, triggering a prolonged military crisis. Recent history has repeatedly shown Russia's weaknesses in responding swiftly and effectively to unexpected offensives or deep penetrations of its defensive lines.
I. Military Setbacks
● Stalled Advances: Recent reports indicate Russian military progress has dramatically slowed. In early 2025, Russian forces required nearly six days to conquer an area equivalent to Manhattan, a significant deceleration due to increased casualties, recruitment challenges, and logistical issues. (The Times, 2025) Gen Ben Hodges has pointed out many times that in March of last year Russia was only 60 miles outside of Pokrovsk. A year later they are not inside Pokrovsk.
● Equipment and Manpower Constraints: Analysts emphasize Russia’s incremental gains have come at immense costs, highlighting severe constraints in equipment and personnel. (The Times, 2025)
● Reliance on Civilian Vehicles: Due to substantial losses of military hardware—over 20,000 units since February 2022—Russian troops increasingly resort to civilian vehicles on the front lines, underscoring critical shortages. (The Insider, 2024) There are areas of the zero-line where all of the Russian military vehicles around are burned and destroyed. The only operational vehicles are civilian.
● Equipment Churn vs. Production: Russia struggles significantly to replenish military hardware, losing equipment faster than it can be repaired or manufactured. For example, annual production of infantry fighting vehicles (around 200 units per year) and limited artillery production facilities starkly contrast against thousands lost on the battlefield. (Institute for the Study of War, 2024)
II. Economic Strains
● Impact of High Interest Rates: Russia's central bank maintains a high benchmark interest rate of 21% to combat inflation. This strategy, while stabilizing the currency, has increased borrowing costs, spurring a 20% rise in corporate bankruptcies and exacerbating liquidity shortages across multiple sectors. (The Moscow Times, 2024; Reuters, 2025)
● Decline in Entrepreneurship: The ongoing war and economic downturn have resulted in Russia losing approximately 1.4 million small and medium enterprises (42%) over five years. This reduction significantly weakens long-term economic prospects. (Arxiv, 2023)
III. Demographic Crisis
● Population Decline Accelerated by War: Russia’s demographic issues, characterized by declining birth rates and an aging population, have sharply worsened due to heavy military casualties. Estimates suggest Russia may lose up to 1.8 million troops to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine, disproportionately affecting the working-age male population. (Wikipedia, 2024)
● Impact on Future Generations: The ongoing conflict, casualties, and resulting economic uncertainties further depress birth rates, intensify emigration, and threaten long-term economic stability.
IV. Internal Dissent and Social Stability
● Emergence of Opposition Movements: Internal dissent grows as opposition groups, such as the Freedom of Russia Legion led by Maximilian Andronnikov, actively seek regime change. These groups amplify internal tensions and instability. (The Sun, 2024) Not to mention growing instances of mutiny and desertion at the company level.
● Propaganda and Public Sentiment: The introduction of new school textbooks justifying the invasion reflects government anxiety about internal opposition and reveals ongoing concerns over public loyalty and national morale. (Reuters, 2025)
V. Counterarguments Highlighting Russia's Resilience
● Economic Adaptability: Despite sanctions, Russia’s economy has demonstrated some resilience, largely through trade relations and support from non-Western countries, partially mitigating anticipated economic collapse. (Financial Times, 2025)
● Territorial Control: Russia maintains significant territorial holdings in Ukraine, providing strategic leverage for potential future negotiations and long-term conflict management. (The Times, 2025)
● Military Revitalization Efforts: Russia’s ongoing military reconstitution aims to rebuild capabilities substantially by 2030, reflecting a long-term strategy for continued conflict or deterrence. (Financial Times, 2025)
Recap and Analysis:
Even considering Russia's points of resilience, its overall strategic position remains profoundly fragile. A well-coordinated, modest-sized military coalition could effectively penetrate Russian defenses, causing long-term disruptions to its military operations. Europe must urgently confront this reality and significantly upgrade its defensive/offensive capabilities. Yet, European leadership has consistently failed to act decisively, instead relying on American security assurances. (This is not a peacekeeping force I am suggesting. This is a pacification force. Make no mistake, Europeans would be killing Russians in Ukraine.)
While JD Vance’s speech in Munich may have lacked "diplomatic nuance", one of his core arguments holds truth: Europe's strategic vulnerability stems significantly from self-inflicted policy choices. Germany's abandonment of nuclear energy in favor of geopolitically risky and environmentally dirtier energy sources exemplifies how social ideologies have severely compromised Europe's strategic security. Such policies have inadvertently signaled to Russia clear vulnerabilities—effectively serving as a "green light" for aggression. Combined with Europe's chronic underinvestment in defense, these policy missteps have made the continent dangerously dependent and vulnerable. (The entire EU structure is a problem.)
In conclusion, Russia’s position, although superficially resilient in certain respects, is fundamentally fragile. Europe's continued inaction exacerbates these vulnerabilities. It is imperative that Europe demonstrates the leadership and courage required to assume responsibility for its own defense and to mitigate ongoing threats from Russia. It's time for Europe to grow up. Defend itself. No matter what you think of Trump, if Europe is motivated to spend 3% of GDP on defense and comes to Ukraine's DIRECT aid, his ridiculous words and actions will have a positive outcome. The icing on the cake is that he is counting on Europe to fail. Make him wrong.
Link to the article - if you're at all interested in Ukraine, this is Tom Coopers substack - you can subscribe for free and he is REALLY worth following for his Ukraine updates.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/actually-russia-is-at-its-most-fragile
Note for Il74. Don't bother. I know what you're going to say. LOL multiple times.
(Actually) Russia is at it's Most Fragile, Right Now
By Benjamin Cook
Feb 25
The European military logistics and capability required to penetrate Russian lines and send them into chaos isn’t big. What it requires is ‘leadership’ - which is immense. Remember, the EU (1993) is a post-Soviet (1991) organization built to foster compromise, not leadership and determination.
Russia's position in its ongoing war in Ukraine exhibits significant fragility across multiple critical dimensions, including severe military setbacks, deepening economic pressures, worsening demographic crisis, and unsustainable equipment losses. Despite evidence of Russian resilience—such as limited economic adaptation and persistent territorial control—these strengths are increasingly overshadowed by systemic vulnerabilities. A modestly sized but well-organized military coalition could exploit Russia's thinly stretched lines, triggering a prolonged military crisis. Recent history has repeatedly shown Russia's weaknesses in responding swiftly and effectively to unexpected offensives or deep penetrations of its defensive lines.
I. Military Setbacks
● Stalled Advances: Recent reports indicate Russian military progress has dramatically slowed. In early 2025, Russian forces required nearly six days to conquer an area equivalent to Manhattan, a significant deceleration due to increased casualties, recruitment challenges, and logistical issues. (The Times, 2025) Gen Ben Hodges has pointed out many times that in March of last year Russia was only 60 miles outside of Pokrovsk. A year later they are not inside Pokrovsk.
● Equipment and Manpower Constraints: Analysts emphasize Russia’s incremental gains have come at immense costs, highlighting severe constraints in equipment and personnel. (The Times, 2025)
● Reliance on Civilian Vehicles: Due to substantial losses of military hardware—over 20,000 units since February 2022—Russian troops increasingly resort to civilian vehicles on the front lines, underscoring critical shortages. (The Insider, 2024) There are areas of the zero-line where all of the Russian military vehicles around are burned and destroyed. The only operational vehicles are civilian.
● Equipment Churn vs. Production: Russia struggles significantly to replenish military hardware, losing equipment faster than it can be repaired or manufactured. For example, annual production of infantry fighting vehicles (around 200 units per year) and limited artillery production facilities starkly contrast against thousands lost on the battlefield. (Institute for the Study of War, 2024)
II. Economic Strains
● Impact of High Interest Rates: Russia's central bank maintains a high benchmark interest rate of 21% to combat inflation. This strategy, while stabilizing the currency, has increased borrowing costs, spurring a 20% rise in corporate bankruptcies and exacerbating liquidity shortages across multiple sectors. (The Moscow Times, 2024; Reuters, 2025)
● Decline in Entrepreneurship: The ongoing war and economic downturn have resulted in Russia losing approximately 1.4 million small and medium enterprises (42%) over five years. This reduction significantly weakens long-term economic prospects. (Arxiv, 2023)
III. Demographic Crisis
● Population Decline Accelerated by War: Russia’s demographic issues, characterized by declining birth rates and an aging population, have sharply worsened due to heavy military casualties. Estimates suggest Russia may lose up to 1.8 million troops to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine, disproportionately affecting the working-age male population. (Wikipedia, 2024)
● Impact on Future Generations: The ongoing conflict, casualties, and resulting economic uncertainties further depress birth rates, intensify emigration, and threaten long-term economic stability.
IV. Internal Dissent and Social Stability
● Emergence of Opposition Movements: Internal dissent grows as opposition groups, such as the Freedom of Russia Legion led by Maximilian Andronnikov, actively seek regime change. These groups amplify internal tensions and instability. (The Sun, 2024) Not to mention growing instances of mutiny and desertion at the company level.
● Propaganda and Public Sentiment: The introduction of new school textbooks justifying the invasion reflects government anxiety about internal opposition and reveals ongoing concerns over public loyalty and national morale. (Reuters, 2025)
V. Counterarguments Highlighting Russia's Resilience
● Economic Adaptability: Despite sanctions, Russia’s economy has demonstrated some resilience, largely through trade relations and support from non-Western countries, partially mitigating anticipated economic collapse. (Financial Times, 2025)
● Territorial Control: Russia maintains significant territorial holdings in Ukraine, providing strategic leverage for potential future negotiations and long-term conflict management. (The Times, 2025)
● Military Revitalization Efforts: Russia’s ongoing military reconstitution aims to rebuild capabilities substantially by 2030, reflecting a long-term strategy for continued conflict or deterrence. (Financial Times, 2025)
Recap and Analysis:
Even considering Russia's points of resilience, its overall strategic position remains profoundly fragile. A well-coordinated, modest-sized military coalition could effectively penetrate Russian defenses, causing long-term disruptions to its military operations. Europe must urgently confront this reality and significantly upgrade its defensive/offensive capabilities. Yet, European leadership has consistently failed to act decisively, instead relying on American security assurances. (This is not a peacekeeping force I am suggesting. This is a pacification force. Make no mistake, Europeans would be killing Russians in Ukraine.)
While JD Vance’s speech in Munich may have lacked "diplomatic nuance", one of his core arguments holds truth: Europe's strategic vulnerability stems significantly from self-inflicted policy choices. Germany's abandonment of nuclear energy in favor of geopolitically risky and environmentally dirtier energy sources exemplifies how social ideologies have severely compromised Europe's strategic security. Such policies have inadvertently signaled to Russia clear vulnerabilities—effectively serving as a "green light" for aggression. Combined with Europe's chronic underinvestment in defense, these policy missteps have made the continent dangerously dependent and vulnerable. (The entire EU structure is a problem.)
In conclusion, Russia’s position, although superficially resilient in certain respects, is fundamentally fragile. Europe's continued inaction exacerbates these vulnerabilities. It is imperative that Europe demonstrates the leadership and courage required to assume responsibility for its own defense and to mitigate ongoing threats from Russia. It's time for Europe to grow up. Defend itself. No matter what you think of Trump, if Europe is motivated to spend 3% of GDP on defense and comes to Ukraine's DIRECT aid, his ridiculous words and actions will have a positive outcome. The icing on the cake is that he is counting on Europe to fail. Make him wrong.
Link to the article - if you're at all interested in Ukraine, this is Tom Coopers substack - you can subscribe for free and he is REALLY worth following for his Ukraine updates.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/actually-russia-is-at-its-most-fragile
Last edited:
ChloeTzang
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Sadly. I have to agree. The only thing standing in his way is Zelensky, who is a REAL leader.
Who has the balls to go right up to the frontline time and again, and who has survived more assassination teams sent after him than probably any leader in the world
ll74
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47 has publicly defined Zelensky as the enemy of the US.
Nothing unpredictable there either
ChloeTzang
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Yep. He ain't going to do the right and honorable thing here. Or abide by the agreements the US signed in the past. We may disagree on a lot of other stuff but you're eching my thoughts here. Or I'm echoing yours. And I do believe we would find out a majority of Americans agree on this one.
ll74
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My only question is about where people here line up. Your position is clear.
Who here in the forum wants to align with Putin and Russia?
icanhelp1
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I respectfully disagree. Before the invasion first began, when Russian troops amass divisions along the Ukraine border the US and NATO should have shown solidarity at that time in history. Should have warned Putin there will not be another incursion into Ukraine or you risk war!!!. 6 months prior to the invasion NATO forces should have gone into full deployment mode. One aspect of the invasion was Zelensky wasn't allowed to target cities in Russia, his hands were tied. If a war is unavoidable then both sides need to suffer but as usual, just like the annexation of Crimea, the invasion of the Donbas region, the response was minimal by the West, typical show of weakness.
icanhelp1
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What Trump has done is ruffle some feathers. Germany has finally pulled their collective heads out of their asses and are finally realizing how far behind they are. Germany for years stuck a finger in the US 's eye, relying on our troop dispositions in their country. Now they want to create a new defense alliance. In my mind; fuck Germany! They were more interested in their own economic wellbeing than their national security or paying their fair share. They were content sitting under our umbrella. I'm waiting for the left to remind us that Germany was under a WWII mandate that restricted the size of their military. That changed when Germany joined NATO. They didn't reach their 2% contribution mandate till 2024, 2 years into the Ukraine war. WTF? They're the wealthiest country in the EU.
The Ukraine war doesn't exist in a vacuum.
Then there was the ' Budapest Memorandum' which was basically not worth the paper it was written on.
Ya wonder why the outrage today? Because the west failed to stand in solidarity way back when, Putin saw the weakness and moved into Ukraine. Putin did not fear NATO. Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan sent a message to Putin that we didn't have the intestinal fortitude for another conflict.
The West is now trying to make up for lost time. The Russians are weakening ( I agree with your narrative, I tip my hat off to your knowledge on the subject) But being wounded Putin will not allow a defeat. Trump is giving him an off ramp and I believe Putin will take it. What we do after the fact will be critical for the future of Ukraine. Putin may be just crazy enough to use tac nukes if he looses too much.
This is strictly my opinion.
ll74
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47 is capitulating to Putin and demonizing Zelensky. This isn't rocket science.
Scareltt
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President Biden offered a master class in how to deal with Russia. How not to be drawn into a European conflict. How to save America lives.
Like Reagan he out maneuvered Russia. He cost Putin soldiers, weapons, and time.. he exposed the Russian soldiers as not as capable as everyone thought.
It was expensive, but so is what Reagan did.
(Second F all of you for making me say nice things about Reagan!)
Like Reagan he out maneuvered Russia. He cost Putin soldiers, weapons, and time.. he exposed the Russian soldiers as not as capable as everyone thought.
It was expensive, but so is what Reagan did.
(Second F all of you for making me say nice things about Reagan!)
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