For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[Rightguide]

It was reported yesterday that the Russians have crossed Dnieper River in the Kherson region and are holding a salient or beachhead one to three kilometers wide, on the Ukrainian side of the river.

 

[Politruk]

Strike Campaigns

Ukraine is slowly dismantling Putin’s war machine, one factory and facility at a time - two or even three on a good night. One way (no pun intended) or another, night after night the drones come, and they usually hit something Putin cannot afford to have out of action for long. The orcs might be good at scaling up production of a solution once they find one, but they sure aren’t proving able to get ahead of even the most predictable curves.

You’d think that after months of watching stuff burn about once a week, Putin would have ordered a massive national investment in interceptor drones and people trained to use them. Instead, that chipmunk-faced twit is having friendly journalists toss softball questions about how great things are going over tea in one of Putin’s dachas. Old Adolf acted like that too, even near to the end, holding dinner parties every night where he’d harangue guests with diatribes even as his cities were pummeled into dust and armies retreated towards Berlin.

The orcs are still able to inflict damage on Ukraine with their own missiles and drones, but only sporadically and rarely to a degree that important operations are affected. Ukraine’s Viper fleet is an increasingly important part of that success.

Aviation Fight

Once again the Czechs are taking their due vengeance for decades of oppression by Moscow, adding to their coup of organizing the purchase of millions of shells for Ukraine from international markets by jointly setting up an F-16 flight school. Living outside of Prague learning to fly a Viper for a few months is a fitting reward for having to dash at treetop level towards ruscist missile systems to drop bombs on advancing orcs. Among other dangerous missions.

Though there haven’t been any more big announcements of aircraft deliveries lately, Ukraine’s partners have generally been sending a new tranche of Vipers and Mirages about the time pilots finish conversion training. A minimum of 16 Vipers have been confirmed delivered as of early 2025, with two lost in action. Probably double that number of pilots have arrived. With numerous aircraft pledged for spare parts and others already held back for training, it’s fair to assume that all 14 Vipers in the count are operational, at least a dozen combat-ready at a given time. I’d bet on the number being closer to twenty, with a proportional number of pilots.

As for the Mirages, confirmed numbers are 4, at least two more on the way and potentially as many soon available. This is why I expect Ukraine to operate two Viper and one Mirage squadrons by the end of the year, around 12 ready aircraft in each, which along with another eight Patriot systems - two more pledged last week - should finally give Ukraine a mostly-effective, almost-comprehensive air shield. No word on Gripens for Ukraine, but it ought to be noted that Czechia has leased a dozen from Sweden for about ten years now, the contract up in 2027.

I can easily envision a scenario where Czechia’s Gripen lease winds up in Ukrainian hands this year as part of a deal where Poland or Germany covers Czechia’s airspace until it receives new fighters already on order. Or realizes that it probably isn’t sensible for every small European country to have one or two fighter squadrons covering airspace surrounded by allied countries, just saying.

The Netherlands, Belgium, Czechia, Austria, Switzerland, Portugal, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania, among others, could all be better off pooling their aviation assets. Just send contingents out here to Pacific America for training when they need to practice in spaces where you can play with electronic warfare without upsetting commerce too much. The Growler community up by Seattle has a nice playground off the coast, I hear.

Leadership & Personnel

Ukraine is still standing up its new corps, moving faster than official news reports suggest, I expect. Overall, the process looks to be structured as it should be: experienced, proven commanders are placed in charge of the new corps regardless of whether they are career military or not. Certain brigades don’t necessarily form the core of the corps (English and it’s weird homonymns) in an official sense, but you have to expect that a leader familiar with a particular formation will rely on it more in the field.

The final functional composition of each corps is also still unclear. My standing assumption that the five or so line brigades will be bound to supporting formations, like artillery and drone, appears to be sound. It will be interesting to find out if Ukraine does ultimately create a heavy brigade in each corps that plugs a tank battalion into an assault regiment to power offensive operations.

There is also a possibility that the top six or so drone regiments and brigades will evolve into full-on divisions, each supporting multiple corps rather than subordinated to them. This arrangement isn’t immediately intuitive, but the scale at which drone operations take place might make it more logical.

If there exists a simulation package somewhere that can systematically test questions like this, I’d sure like to know about it. And if not, get paid to help develop it.

Separately, an intriguing possibility thanks to Ukraine’s well-advanced drone game is the potential for a fairly thinly held, drone-backed front to allow a greater proportion of Ukraine’s soldiers to get proper rest than ever before. Though there hasn’t been any word about the long rotations that so many veteran soldiers badly need, Ukraine might be achieving a greater degree of organic restoration by having to less frequently rotate soldiers into frontline positions.

You really should not post these walls of text without a link to the source.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ll74]

It was reported yesterday that the Russians have crossed Dnieper River in the Kherson region and are holding a salient or beachhead one to three kilometers wide, on the Ukrainian side of the river.

Was it?

 

[Lance_Castro]

When will the Bidens stop this war?

 

[ll74]

What is reality
Ukraine approves the minerals deal with the US.
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-...yy-ukraine-parliament-minerals-deal-approved/

What are the odds that Trump will continue to blame Ukraine for the lack of peace?

 

[ChloeTzang]

Was it?

Nope. If it was, it was only by Russian sources. Ukraine is saying same old, same old, with continued Russian attempts to sneak teams across onto islands in the river, and the ZSU finding them and blowing them away. In other words, no change. Add in that the Russians do not have the manpower in Kherson to launch any major attacks, nor do they have the bridging equipment there to allow them to move across the Dnipr. And if they tried, it would be a slaughterhouse.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Obver the last three days, Ukraine has established a no-fly zone over a huge part of Russia. Flights into Russia grounded everywhere and a gazillion Russians stranded, both inside Russia and out. Due to massive drone attacks in the European part of Russia, flights are also paralyzed today. Airports are in collapse. Chaos continues at Russian airports, with some travelers stranded for over 40 hours, after Ukrainian drones froze air travel. More than 200 flights have been canceled across the country, dozens have been delayed, planes are lined up on runways, and passengers are sleeping wherever they can, Russian media reports. At several airports, furious and drunken passengers have begun fighting with staff.A nd most importantly, it has been disrupted in Moscow, which is a key hub. Russian bloggers are already sounding the alarm.

Slovak PM Fico is stuck in Baku tring to find a flight. So far, no dice. The junior Nazi Quisling has been trying so hard get to Moscow too. Some "guests" have lmade it, but Aliyev, the Azerbaijani, and the Laotian leader have just canceled their trips, it's probably best not to travel to Moscow now.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Weekly Q&A on Ukraine with Michael Clarke

 

[ChloeTzang]

Speaking of Siberia.....

 

[Rightguide]

What is reality
Ukraine approves the minerals deal with the US.
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-...yy-ukraine-parliament-minerals-deal-approved/

What are the odds that Trump will continue to blame Ukraine for the lack of peace?

Zelensky rejected the ceasefire. He wants to continue fighting, so let him do so, only not with our money, men, or material assistance. Let Europe decide how it wants to proceed. We have enough problems right here at home and in deterring China in the Pacific.

 

[Politruk]

Zelensky rejected the ceasefire. He wants to continue fighting, so let him do so, only not with our money, men, or material assistance. Let Europe decide how it wants to proceed. We have enough problems right here at home and in deterring China in the Pacific.

Russia is a threat to the world in general. China is not.

 

[ll74]

Zelensky rejected the ceasefire. He wants to continue fighting, so let him do so, only not with our money, men, or material assistance. Let Europe decide how it wants to proceed. We have enough problems right here at home and in deterring China in the Pacific.

Putin has never accepted any ceasefire terms.

Zelensky has accepted multiple ceasefire frameworks.

 

[Rightguide]

Putin has never accepted any ceasefire terms.

Zelensky has accepted multiple ceasefire frameworks.

Name them. Putin just proposed a ceasefire that was rejected by Zelensky.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Name them. Putin just proposed a ceasefire that was rejected by Zelensky.

Putin's mlitary have already broken his own 3 day ceasefire over 700 times. In point of fact, Putin's proposal was a farce and only a ceasefire of convenience - for Russia.

Putin and Russia have never adhere to a ceasefire, not even their own.

Zelensky has proposed a ceasfire without conditions, starting immediateely, any number of times. I tend to believe Zelensky over Putin. Based purely on past history.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Nice little piece about the UK SPartan IFV in use with the ZSU

And here's another on the Swedish CV90 IFV

 

[ChloeTzang]

LOL. OLd US junk proving useful in Ukraine, and saving the USA on disposal cost......

And the M101 105mm.....

 

[Lazaran]

Speaking of Siberia.....

Russia knows what it’s doing:

• Russia orchestrated the election of Trump (twice), which resulted in the U.S. trade war with China that HAS benefited, and WILL, ultimately, benefit Russia.

That ^ started in Trump’s first administration, and it yielded predictable results right through President Biden’s administration:

https://thechinaacademy.org/the-west-ceded-the-russian-market-to-china-we-are-also-pleased-to-see/#:~:text=In 2023, agricultural trade between,52.6%, reaching $7.586 billion.



Also:

• Russia is using China (and Iran and North Korea and India) every bit as much as Russia is being used - and MOAR.

• The Russians are every bit as diabolical & ruthless as the Chinese when it comes to war OR geopolitical subterfuge. There is ZERO chance that Russia hasn’t gamed out any and all eventualities from their Ukrainian war gambit: The attrition among ethnic minorities in the Russian "Federation" almost makes the protracted nature of the Ukraine conflict seem premeditated. (I have posited in earlier posts that part of Russia’s goal in the Ukraine war is to eliminate potential domestic revolutionaries in the ranks of their young men.) Hell, Russia may have even made a deal with North Korea, etc, to grind up some of their excess-young-potentially-revolutionary men.





Ultimately:

The idea that China will be taking a large swath of Russia while Putin is "distracted" with Ukraine is absurd. Russia and China jointly exploiting the land and the people of Siberia & Eastern Russia IS a distinct possibility, but there sure as hell won’t be any major hostile Chinese annexation of Russian territory; Russia has nukes and would use them.

Hope that ^ helps.



Slava Ukraini!!!

 

[ChloeTzang]

And lest you wonder why.....

What’s Guiding Ukraine’s Deep Strikes? Something Putin Can’t Jam
by Benjamin Cook, Sarcastosaurus
May 8

I’ve made a few accurate predictions about Ukraine’s war effort—calls that seemed unlikely at the time but have since been validated. I warned that Ukraine would pursue a nuclear deterrent if left outside NATO. I said shotguns would become a frontline defense against drones. I predicted that the supposed $500 billion price tag for Ukraine’s reconstruction would balloon to well over $1 trillion. And I wasn’t surprised when Zelensky, once cautious, began calling out corruption in Washington directly (Ukraine isn’t more corrupt than the US, it’s differently corrupt.)

Here’s my next prediction:

Ukraine is already using—or will soon use—Signal-of-Opportunity Navigation (SoOPNav) to guide drones and long-range munitions deep into Russia, even in the most hostile electronic warfare environments.

NOTE: This was written back in March. Today we see Moscow’s communication systems being limited. Why? To deny Ukraine Signal of Opportunity Navigation.

What Is Signal-of-Opportunity Navigation?

SoOPNav relies on ambient signals in the electromagnetic spectrum—including but not limited to traditional radio frequencies—to estimate a platform’s position without GPS. These signals can come from:

● FM radio broadcasts
● Television towers
● Civilian cell networks
● Public infrastructure transmitters
● Industrial emitters

Rather than broadcasting or “talking,” these systems listen to signals that are already present—signals that can be mapped, modeled, and used to calculate location, heading, and speed. Your smartphone does this constantly. Even when GPS is disabled, your device can still locate you with startling accuracy by measuring signal strength, timing, and signal identity from nearby Wi-Fi routers, Bluetooth devices, cell towers, and even magnetic anomalies. This is not a primitive backup system. It is complex, persistent, and insidious—and it works. That same principle, scaled up and applied to drones and cruise missiles, is likely being used right now inside Russian airspace.

Why Ukraine Needs This

Russia has constructed one of the most aggressive electronic warfare environments in the world. Near major cities, military bases, and strategic infrastructure, GPS signals are jammed, spoofed, or completely denied. And yet Ukrainian drones continue to strike targets hundreds of kilometers inside Russian territory. In some cases, they may be relying on inertial navigation, visual scene matching, or preloaded terrain maps. But the most adaptable—and scalable—solution is Signal-of-Opportunity Navigation. Every FM tower in Belgorod. Every cell tower near an oil refinery in Tatarstan. Every civilian broadcast signal left untouched by Russian operators. These are not vulnerabilities in the traditional sense. They are fixed-position reference points, whether Moscow likes it or not. SoOPNav doesn’t require decrypting the signal or accessing its content. It just needs the signal itself—its strength, timing, and frequency characteristics. Once cataloged, it becomes part of a drone’s mental map.

SoOPNav is cheap, passive, and incredibly difficult to counter. You can jam GPS. You can spoof satellite links. But you cannot—short of turning off your entire country’s broadcast and communications infrastructure—easily erase your own electromagnetic footprint. That footprint becomes a roadmap. A breadcrumb trail. A silent guide for munitions that fly low, fast, and unannounced.

Crucially, this would not be the only navigation method onboard. Ukraine’s most capable drones are likely using a layered suite of navigation systems. SoOPNav would work alongside GPS (when available), inertial navigation, barometric data, terrain contour matching, and AI-assisted visual recognition. No one method is perfect. But fused together, they create a resilient, adaptable system that survives in electronic warfare environments where a single mode would fail.

Ukraine won’t advertise that it’s using this. But if I’m right, we’ll see the effects in how often drones reach deep inside Russian territory—despite Russian attempts to blind them.

It’s not magic. It’s math.

 

[ChloeTzang]

And speaking of VE Day, for Lithuania WW2 only ended on August 31, 1993, when the last of the genocidal totalitarian Soviet occupation forces, officially left the country.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[Lance_Castro]

And speaking of VE Day, for Lithuania WW2 only ended on August 31, 1993, when the last of the genocidal totalitarian Soviet occupation forces, officially left the country.

View attachment 2537398

Shhhh….Lithuania is keeping a low profile while Trump is President.

If someone tells him it’s where all the Lithium comes from….trouble.

 

[ChloeTzang]

As Putin indulges in his Victory Day parade, this is his endgame in Ukraine​

Nice article from the UK's The Independant. Some snips....

Far from being worried by recent mini-threats from Donald Trump to increase sanctions or stung by the US president’s irritation at Russia’s stalling over a ceasefire, Putin is cupping his ears in a pantomime of attention and carrying on doing as he pleases. Such behaviour chimes with the uncharacteristically stark message from ex-spy chief Sir Alex Younger who, after a lifetime in the shadows of espionage, has a simple message: “If you don’t stand up to him, he comes back for more – how many more times do we need to be told this?”
Three years since the full-scale invasion by Moscow’s forces, Kyiv’s allies, as well as the US, appear muddled about whether Ukraine is losing, stuck in a stalemate, or could actually win. The evolution of Ukraine’s military since 2022 can be characterised by an initial period of daring incompetence followed by dashing success but, as Ukraine settled into dependency on Nato, this moved to failed incursions and subsequent longer-term despondency. This has led many in Europe, notably experienced Nato generals, to conclude that Ukraine will have to accept the loss of some of its land in return for peace, even as European nations rush to fill the gaps left by a newly unreliable former ally in Washington. The point they are missing is that Ukraine is now leading the world and winning the latest cutting-edge phase – the drone war.

Ukraine has received enough equipment from allies like the US, Britain, Germany, France and Poland to bleed Russia but not to win.

“Overall, the quality of their [Russian] force, especially their ground force, has been decreasing throughout the conflict,” the US general and Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Christopher Cavoli, told the Senate defence committee in early April. “On the Ukrainian side, we see sort of the opposite. We see a military that started pretty much from an almost cold start. We had been helping them before the war, but not at the scale we began to after the war, and they’ve evolved and developed very, very quickly.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ry-day-parade-putin-ukraine-war-b2747837.html

 

[ChloeTzang]