Boxlicker101
Licker of Boxes
- Joined
- Apr 5, 2003
- Posts
- 33,665
The threat, the talk, the speculation about impeachment is a useful political tool to drum up engagement and donations.
The actual impeachment is another story. During impeachment proof has to be provided and it brings to people thoughts on whether it's the right thing to do or not. Forget about preaching to the choir, at that stage, they'll be trying to convince the unconvinced.
The cautionary tale out there is the Clinton impeachment. Even though Clinton was successfully impeached by the house, he was not convicted in the Senate (due to the math of the Senate at the time and the sixty vote threshold).
Through the process Clinton's approval numbers rose and he skated to re-election.
There is something fundamental in the American character that a.) roots for the underdog and b.) dislikes government over-reach. So what the leadership has to consider carefully before they start down the path is a.) is it provable to the skeptics and undecided voters and b.) will it have the effect we desire.
If the answer to either of those question is no and at this point, the math is prohibitive on getting the Senate to agree on impeachment just on strict party lines. They will have to have solid enough evidence to compel a good number of Republicans to vote for it, politicians who are NOT inclined to support impeachment.
So the very real risk is that a failed attempt at impeachment is interpreted by the undecideds as political shenanigans and simple insures his re-election in 2020.
However, they could talk and bluster to their hearts content, raise millions of dollars, mobilize the base - and never actually make the run at impeachment. They can make all the noise without having to actually "put up or shut up".
Ah, the political calculations that drive democracies.
According to Article 1, Section 3 of the Constitution, the requirement is two thirds, which means 67 senators voting for impeachment.
I believe most Dems in the House are aware their constituencies would consider a serious attempt at impeachment to be just showboating and a waste of time, and the voters would remember it during the 2020 election campaign. There are a few, such as Maxine Waters, who might somewhat ingratiate themselves with voters, but the benefit they would derive are almost non-existent.