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The Economy

A better indicator of the economic future of the US us not the stock market - that's a short term gambling platform - the treasury bond market is where you find the economic pulse of the country - whether other nation investors have any confidence in the US.

And its plain to see that the US is fucked based on the recent auction of treasury bonds. This is how the US raises money to cover their increasingly unsustainable deficit. Basically foreign investors aren't much interested in these bonds and as a result require a higher yield to buy them. Meaning the US will be paying even more in interest than they currently are ( currently more than defense spending)

So confidence in the US economy is low and funding your deficit spending (which trump has substantially increased) is going to cost you more and more




 
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“…There is no way on God’s green earth republicans can hold on to the House.”

 
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Trump Rate Hopes Burned as New Inflation Data Comes in Hot

Producer prices rose sharply in July, federal data shows, dashing President Donald Trump's hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut rates in September as he has been demanding.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9 percent on the month in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Thursday, and by 3.3 percent on the year. Both were much higher readings than the markets were expecting.

The monthly rise was the biggest since June 2022, and the annual increase the highest since February this year. Core PPI, which strips out volatile data points, rose by 3.7 percent over the year, its highest annual rise since April 2021.

The PPI measures the output prices for domestic producers of goods and services before they reach consumers.
 
Rightguide said:

Futures Trade At All-Time High As Global Market Euphoria Goes To 11​

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Aug 13, 2025 - 05:36 AM
US equity futures are higher led by small caps (again) as the CPI print induces further short covering ahead of a now certain September rate cut, and a beta chase. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.2% higher after both indexes closed at fresh record highs on Tuesday, but were comfortably outpaced by the Russell 2000 index, as smaller companies were lifted by a largely benign inflation reading. Pre-mkt, Mag7 and semis are higher with Cyclicals outperforming Defensives, ex-Energy. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens and USD weakens; the market strengthens its view on rate cuts in Sep, Oct, and Dec. Bessent calls for a 50bp cut in Sep. Today’s macro data focus is on mtge apps ahead of tmrw’s PPI which should help solidify PCE views.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ES 2025-08-13_8-23-27.jpg?itok=5SbkX0GU

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-trade-all-time-high-global-market-euphoria-goes-11
Click to expand...
Zero Hedge has become increasingly controversial due to its expansion into political and social commentary, including conspiracy theories and fringe rhetoric.

The site has been accused of amplifying Russian propaganda and has experienced temporary bans from social media platforms like Twitter and Google Ads.

Critics have also labeled the site as a "permabear" and questioned its factual accuracy, particularly in its economic predictions.

I bolded the part that makes Reichguide happiest. 😑
 
Biglibido99 said:
A better indicator of the economic future of the US us not the stock market - that's a short term gambling platform - the treasury bond market is where you find the economic pulse of the country - whether other nation investors have any confidence in the US.

And its plain to see that the US is fucked based on the recent auction of treasury bonds. This is how the US raises money to cover their increasingly unsustainable deficit. Basically foreign investors aren't much interested in these bonds and as a result require a higher yield to buy them. Meaning the US will be paying even more in interest than they currently are ( currently more than defense spending)

So confidence in the US economy is low and funding your deficit spending (which trump has substantially increased) is going to cost you more and more




Click to expand...

DonOld did his first major TACO move the last time the bond market got “yippy”. I suspect DonOld’s latest TACO move involving tariffs on China, and sanctions / tariffs on Russia and its enablers (Japan, another major holder of US treasuries already got a pretty sweet TACO deal on their "tariffs" when it comes to cars, etc) is directly related to the bond market - and DonOld’s cowardice, of course…

😑

We. Told. Them. So.

🌷
 
The U.S. Alcohol Industry Is Reeling From Canada’s Booze Boycott

Trade fight prompts pullback in purchases by the biggest export market for U.S.-made wines, costing American brands tens of millions in sales

Canada’s prohibition on U.S. alcohol is creating a headache for American liquor and winemakers.

On the shelves of many Canadian liquor stores, bottles of Jack Daniel’s, Maker’s Mark and Sailor Jerry Spiced Rum are nowhere to be found. Thousands of bottles of U.S. wine and spirits sit in storage across the country. At tastings, Canadian drinkers are turning their noses up at American alcohol.


I blame Obama 😑
 
DeluxAuto said:
Zero Hedge has become increasingly controversial due to its expansion into political and social commentary, including conspiracy theories and fringe rhetoric.

The site has been accused of amplifying Russian propaganda and has experienced temporary bans from social media platforms like Twitter and Google Ads.

Critics have also labeled the site as a "permabear" and questioned its factual accuracy, particularly in its economic predictions.

I bolded the part that makes Reichguide happiest. 😑
Click to expand...
Imagine being too pro-Russia for Twitter.
 
Trump can't escape the truth. The Biggest Loser is the US.
President Donald Trump, in an on-brand episode of shooting the messenger, fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after a weak July jobs report. As her replacement, he nominated E.J. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation economist, Project 2025 co-author, and long-time critic of the BLS.
Antoni has called BLS numbers “phoney baloney” and has floated the idea of suspending the monthly jobs report altogether. In Trumpworld, that’s the dream: Erase the bad consequences of his policies, or better yet, cook the numbers.
But killing the BLS report won’t make the bad news disappear. It just hands the keys to the only other national monthly jobs snapshot: the private-sector report put out by payroll processor ADP. And ADP isn’t in the business of flattering presidents.
While the two datasets often move in the same direction, ADP is more likely to flash a negative or sharply lower number. ADP, a private payroll processing giant, builds its report from anonymized pay data covering millions of U.S. workers and tracks only private-sector jobs.
One clear example came in June, when ADP released a report showing the only net loss of jobs so far in Trump’s second term. It showed a net drop of 33,000 jobs, compared with the BLS’s (still anemic) 14,000-job gain. Without the BLS numbers arriving after ADP’s, the media narrative would have been all about Trump’s job losses. In fact, that month’s BLS report—originally claiming 147,000 jobs created before a sharp downward revision this month—spared Trump major embarrassment.
And here’s the kicker: ADP doesn’t count government jobs at all, and Trump is hacking those to pieces. That means ADP’s figures can understate how bad things truly are. Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and anyone who can read a chart will know to assume the truth is even uglier than ADP’s often bleak headlines.
So if Trump muzzles the BLS, ADP becomes the scoreboard, and his record will look weaker. Trump may think he’s gaming the stats, but the ADP reports are likely to become the loudest, most credible, and least flattering reality check of his presidency.
 
US Exports Collapse

The corrollary of Trumps's tariffs - exports are collapsing

Canada is our biggest export market - exports to Canada re tanking, and there are all sorts of other examples. Tariffs bring in tax revenue, but the trade off is a negative impact on our exports and the balance of trade is worsening as a result. Even if tariffs disappeared tomorrow, we're talkimg permanent damage here. Once consumer habits change and markets disappear, it's hard to win them back

This is a structural change, not cyclical.

 
ChloeTzang said:
US Exports Collapse

The corrollary of Trumps's tariffs - exports are collapsing

Canada is our biggest export market - exports to Canada re tanking, and there are all sorts of other examples. Tariffs bring in tax revenue, but the trade off is a negative impact on our exports and the balance of trade is worsening as a result. Even if tariffs disappeared tomorrow, we're talkimg permanent damage here. Once consumer habits change and markets disappear, it's hard to win them back

This is a structural change, not cyclical.

Click to expand...
Let's get this in perspective. The author is correct on a nation by nation basis BUT the EU in aggregate is our largest trading partner, Canada is #2. Canada is in economic distress and has been even before the tariffs kicked in. When their general economy falls so does the total purchasing so imports are going to suffer as well.

His observation re. consumer habits is correct but there are always exceptions. Without Canada's tariffs on dairy the US dairy producers would own their store space. Canada's producers cannot compete with ours. There are other staples that are in the same category. In a down turning economy the consumer is going to turn to the products offering the best value.

So holding up Canada as some sort of bellwether example isn't entirely valid. Further, the whole tariff thing is going to take time to fully shake out and for the markets to stabilize, a couple months isn't going to cut it.
 
Rebel5soul said:
Let's get this in perspective. The author is correct on a nation by nation basis BUT the EU in aggregate is our largest trading partner, Canada is #2. Canada is in economic distress and has been even before the tariffs kicked in. When their general economy falls so does the total purchasing so imports are going to suffer as well.

His observation re. consumer habits is correct but there are always exceptions. Without Canada's tariffs on dairy the US dairy producers would own their store space. Canada's producers cannot compete with ours. There are other staples that are in the same category. In a down turning economy the consumer is going to turn to the products offering the best value.

So holding up Canada as some sort of bellwether example isn't entirely valid. Further, the whole tariff thing is going to take time to fully shake out and for the markets to stabilize, a couple months isn't going to cut it.
Click to expand...
Yes, the tariffs impact isn't fully realized.

That might be the smartest thing you've said in this forum
 
ll74 said:
Yes, the tariffs impact isn't fully realized.

That might be the smartest thing you've said in this forum
Click to expand...
Yes, not only have companies forward bought buffer stock ahead of so-called "Liberation Day" to avoid tariff levies and those stocks are just about to be depleted - so consumer prices will rise significantly - but the US trading partners are opening up alternative markets because no one wants to deal with an untrustworthy, unstable bully.

So big price index jump ahead not just from imports but also from US manufacturers who are going to match the new increased price of consumer good s - more profit is good - greed is good - it's the merikan way.

And foreign trade will shrink as trading partner's new markets establish themselves.

You're like a fly hitting a car's windshield - the last thing you'll do is kiss your ass goodbye
 
DeluxAuto said:
Trump Rate Hopes Burned as New Inflation Data Comes in Hot

Producer prices rose sharply in July, federal data shows, dashing President Donald Trump's hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut rates in September as he has been demanding.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9 percent on the month in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said on Thursday, and by 3.3 percent on the year. Both were much higher readings than the markets were expecting.

The monthly rise was the biggest since June 2022, and the annual increase the highest since February this year. Core PPI, which strips out volatile data points, rose by 3.7 percent over the year, its highest annual rise since April 2021.

The PPI measures the output prices for domestic producers of goods and services before they reach consumers.
Click to expand...
Gee. I wonder why? Could it be.. oh I don’t know. Tariffs? But it can’t be because wallstreetdouche hasn’t seen any indication that prices are rising in all of his analysis. Must be big tariffs and all their lies.
 
Rockymtnman said:
Gee. I wonder why? Could it be.. oh I don’t know. Tariffs? But it can’t be because wallstreetdouche hasn’t seen any indication that prices are rising in all of his analysis. Must be big tariffs and all their lies.
Click to expand...
Trunp's next move - ban the words tariff, inflation from all government documents.
 
so powell and the fmoc has decide between rising unemployment/controlling inflation or reducing interest rates and risking higher inflation with the effect of the tariffs starting to kick in and the lack of lower paid workers (immigrants) to do the menial/grunt work.
 
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