The Economy

And the worry is that Trump’s tariffs could push inflation higher. Which is very likely.

That in turn is raising fears about a potential, worst-case scenario of stagflation, where the economy stagnates but inflation remains high.
 
Core inflation continues to rise, despite what some try to spin.

Inflation rises by most in six months, stoking tariff-driven price concerns

Annual core prices rose 3.1% year over year in July, up from June’s 2.9% increase, signaling that rising goods inflation is no longer being offset by easing services inflation. Core services prices also firmed, with shelter rising 0.2% for the second consecutive month, while transportation services and medical care services each climbed 0.8%, up from respective gains of 0.2% and 0.6% in June.
 
After September we should see tariffs effects EXCEPT on China and Mexico?? Which other countries got the TACO effect??
There are lots of nuances to each country but the rates are gravitating around 15%. Pre-🌮 tariffs averaged 2.3%. Since April, post-🌮 tariffs are averaging about 5 times that amount.
 
FACTS EXPOSE BLS INCOMPETENCE: Leave it to Issues & Insights (I&I) to dig deep into the historical data to compile an accurate long-term picture of the record of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It turns out that BLS incompetence is no new thing.

“In the 199 months we examined, the BLS’s initial estimate of jobs gained or lost missed the mark by an average of 49.6 percent! Only 15 times did its initial estimate come within 3 percent of being right. (Given the huge sample size, you’d think its margin of error would consistently be tiny.)

“Some months, the miss was staggering. In August 2011, to cite one example, the BLS said no new jobs had been created. Zero. Turns out, 132,000 were created that month. In September 2017, it first said that the economy lost 33,000 jobs – which made big news because, as Politico put it at the time, it was ‘the first time in seven years’ that had happened.

“In fact, the economy had created 88,000 jobs that month. In January 2021 – the last month of Trump’s first term – the BLS initially reported that the economy had added a mere 49,000 jobs. The actual number was 365,000.”

President Donald Trump has named Heritage Foundation Chief Economist E.J. Antoni to be the new BLS Director. He’s going to be one very busy man.
 
Inflation

Published August 12, 2025 8:33am EDT

Inflation cools slightly in July from prior month​

Bureau of Labor Statistics releases closely watched July inflation data​


Inflation increased in July and moved further away from the Federal Reserve's target rate as central bank policymakers assess the health of the economy amid the president's calls for interest rate cuts.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday said that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.2% in July compared with last month, while it was up 2.7% from a year ago.

The monthly figure was in line with the estimate of economists polled by LSEG, while headline was slightly cooler than the 2.8% expected.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.3% from the prior month and 3.1% from a year ago. The annual core figure was hotter than economists' expectations of 3%, while the monthly figure was in line with the estimate.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-july-2025
 
core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.3% from the prior month and 3.1% from a year ago.

Core inflation is over 3% for the first time in a while, and it’s heading in the wrong direction.

Trump effect.
 
Core inflation continues to rise, despite what some try to spin.

Inflation rises by most in six months, stoking tariff-driven price concerns
Secretary Bessent’s comment is accurate.

Groceries and gas prices are holding steady. Even car prices haven’t risen much. The CFO of Ford expects industry average annual price increases to hold at around 1% through the end of the year.

Electricity, car and homeowners insurance, healthcare, restaurants, entertainment and services, all of which are a part of the core inflation index, are different story. They’re rising at a much faster rate, but mostly for reasons unrelated to imported goods.
 
Secretary Bessent’s comment is accurate.

Groceries and gas prices are holding steady. Even car prices haven’t risen much. The CFO of Ford expects industry average annual price increases to hold at around 1% through the end of the year.

Electricity, car and homeowners insurance, healthcare, restaurants, entertainment and services, all of which are a part of the core inflation index, are different story. They’re rising at a much faster rate, but mostly for reasons unrelated to imported goods.

The core inflation rate is now 3.1%. 👍
 
Secretary Bessent’s comment is accurate.

Groceries and gas prices are holding steady. Even car prices haven’t risen much. The CFO of Ford expects industry average annual price increases to hold at around 1% through the end of the year.

Electricity, car and homeowners insurance, healthcare, restaurants, entertainment and services, all of which are a part of the core inflation index, are different story. They’re rising at a much faster rate, but mostly for reasons unrelated to imported goods.

🙄

I can’t decide if BabyBoobs (an ignorant, gaslighting POS MAGAt) is being ignorant or consciously gaslighting with that comment???

🤔

Probably a little of both…

😑

👉 BabyBoobs 🤣

🇺🇸

We. Told. Them. So.

🌷
 
Either he's deliberately lying or the man still has literally no idea how tariffs work. Literally none of the money is coming from outside the United States and literally all of it will ultimately be paid by the American middle class

I really wish I knew how many Americans are stupid enough to fall for this scam. NOTHING is flowing INTO the USA. It's just an added tax on Americans.

View attachment 2557295
He's both lying to look good for his base (doesn't care that it makes him a fool to any sensible people) & he's also trying to use it as a cudgle to get countries, companies to kiss his ring & prostrate themselves at his feet - plus he also wants more bribes via crypto from countries/companies to reduce tariffs. So, it's win-win-win in his tiny little mind
 

Futures Trade At All-Time High As Global Market Euphoria Goes To 11​

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Aug 13, 2025 - 05:36 AM
US equity futures are higher led by small caps (again) as the CPI print induces further short covering ahead of a now certain September rate cut, and a beta chase. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.2% higher after both indexes closed at fresh record highs on Tuesday, but were comfortably outpaced by the Russell 2000 index, as smaller companies were lifted by a largely benign inflation reading. Pre-mkt, Mag7 and semis are higher with Cyclicals outperforming Defensives, ex-Energy. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens and USD weakens; the market strengthens its view on rate cuts in Sep, Oct, and Dec. Bessent calls for a 50bp cut in Sep. Today’s macro data focus is on mtge apps ahead of tmrw’s PPI which should help solidify PCE views.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ES 2025-08-13_8-23-27.jpg?itok=5SbkX0GU

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-trade-all-time-high-global-market-euphoria-goes-11
 
The Producer Price Index, a measure of inflation, rose to 3.3% in July.

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025.

Trump is going to fire some more people for releasing true data. 😆
 
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