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The Economy

whiskeytangofoxtrot said:
so powell and the fmoc has decide between rising unemployment/controlling inflation or reducing interest rates and risking higher inflation with the effect of the tariffs starting to kick in and the lack of lower paid workers (immigrants) to do the menial/grunt work.
Click to expand...

Yep. The Fed is a tough place because the Trump economy is failing in multiple ways. It looks like they’re going to reduce rates a bit to spur employment and hope it doesn’t fuel inflation too much.

Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
 
MajorRewrite said:
Yep. The Fed is a tough place because the Trump economy is failing in multiple ways. It looks like they’re going to reduce rates a bit to spur employment and hope it doesn’t fuel inflation too much.

Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
Click to expand...

Did you listen to Powell’s comments about employment NOT being THE problem right now???

🤔

It is pretty damn obvious (imho) that the current AND looming spike in inflation is the problem that the Fed should be addressing right NOW.

👍

To ANYONE that says we need a rate cute right NOW (or in the near future), I say:

GMAMFB
GTFOH
FOAD
GFY
👎

We. Told. Them. So.

🌷
 
Biglibido99 said:
It's all Biden's fault
And what about Hillary's email server ?
Click to expand...
What about all the Trumps using encrypted phones from DAY ONE

Stop cumming all over the server and the lap top!! You really go for all the simplest Putin ploys.

The FBI did fuck up Hillary!! That same asshole you all hate, Comey, handed Trump his first win. He didn’t mention the “Russia Russia Hoax” until later. Trump confessed essentially that it would be stupid not to accept help. And they GOT HELP!!
 
Pad_Foot said:
What about all the Trumps using encrypted phones from DAY ONE

Stop cumming all over the server and the lap top!! You really go for all the simplest Putin ploys.

The FBI did fuck up Hillary!! That same asshole you all hate, Comey, handed Trump his first win. He didn’t mention the “Russia Russia Hoax” until later. Trump confessed essentially that it would be stupid not to accept help. And they GOT HELP!!
Click to expand...
Not forgetting that Musk said out loud that he helped Trump win and he wouldn't have won without it.
 
Pad_Foot said:
What about all the Trumps using encrypted phones from DAY ONE

Stop cumming all over the server and the lap top!! You really go for all the simplest Putin ploys.

The FBI did fuck up Hillary!! That same asshole you all hate, Comey, handed Trump his first win. He didn’t mention the “Russia Russia Hoax” until later. Trump confessed essentially that it would be stupid not to accept help. And they GOT HELP!!
Click to expand...
I agree - I was being sarcastic
 
Brazik Moving Closer and Closer to China....

Brazil is moving closer to China as Trump's trade war continues.

 
it is only a matter of time before china, brazil and others in BRICs develop new products and industries that the US has ignored or retreated from (see renewable energy) and we will be scrambling to join or locate product. tariffs are in place today to jack up prices for the american consumer today. Tomorrow other countries may place export controls on their products to prohibit the sale to the US.
 
The BRICS so called alliance was very loose until Trump decided they were a threat to his notion of US hegemony. The immediate result of his absurd tariff policy has been to bind them together much more closely than would have otherwise been the case. Japan will edge closer to BRICS because with Indonesia joining, the Japanese cannot afford to be isolated in East/South East Asia. That is a total market in excess of 4 Billion people. And not one of them trusts the current US administration at all.
 
colddiesel said:
The BRICS so called alliance was very loose until Trump decided they were a threat to his notion of US hegemony. The immediate result of his absurd tariff policy has been to bind them together much more closely than would have otherwise been the case. Japan will edge closer to BRICS because with Indonesia joining, the Japanese cannot afford to be isolated in East/South East Asia. That is a total market in excess of 4 Billion people. And not one of them trusts the current US administration at all.
Click to expand...
💯 Exactly.
 

Q2 GDP growth revised higher to 3.3%, PCE increase revised lower to 2.0​


U.S. Q2 GDP growth, annual rate, revised to+3.3% Q/Q from the initial estimate of 3.0%, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday. The measure compares with the 3.1% consensus estimate and contrasts with the 0.5% decline in Q1 2025, which reflected larger than usual imports.

The revision primarily reflects upward revisions to investment and consumer spending, which were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.

Q2 PCE prices were revised to a 2.0% increase, down from the initial estimate of +2.1% and +3.7% in Q1. Core PCE prices, though, stayed at 2.5% vs. prior estimate of +2.5% and moderated from +3.5% in Q1.

Q2 personal consumption expenditures increased +1.6%, revised up from the 1.4% initial estimate, compared with the Q1 growth rate of 0.5%, the BEA said.

Overall, the numbers still portray a solid U.S. economy, with the consumer remaining relatively resilient. The effects of tariffs on the economy have yet to filter through. Businesses are working down inventory of goods imported in Q1, and the tariff policy remained in flux in the second quarter of 2025.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/44900...higher-to-33-pce-increase-revised-lower-to-20
 

U.S. shoppers see order cancellations as world shuts down America-bound shipments​


U.S. shoppers ordering smaller goods from abroad are being met with waves of cancellation notices ahead of a key trade rule change ordered by the Trump administration. On Friday, the United States will end the nearly century-old de minimis exemption, which allowed items worth less than $800 to be shipped to the country duty-free, or without having to pay any tariffs. In advance of the official termination date for the exemption, many European nations, alongside Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and New Zealand, have announced temporary suspensions of U.S.-bound shipments. U.S. e-commerce hubs have since posted notices warning customers about shipping disruptions. Last week, Etsy announced it would no longer process purchases for goods sent via Australia Post, Canada Post and the United Kingdom’s Evri and Royal Mail services, in anticipation of those firms shutting down U.S. deliveries. “Given the complexities, legal requirements, and poor experience, many postal providers will be suspending” delivery options to the U.S., Etsy said. Online auction site eBay has likewise warned that sellers who rely on foreign postal services will have to find alternative shipping processors to get their products to U.S. customers.

But private, third-party carriers which may already have tariff-collection systems in place can cost as much as four times the amount of sending an item via regular post, said Alison Layfield, vice president of product development at ePost Global, a California-based logistics firm. “Customers are going to be very shocked,” she said.

Administration officials have argued that anyone affected by the change should simply switch to U.S.-based suppliers. Seriously, they're out to lunch and probably a few sausages short of a full BBQ along with it. For a lot of what's ordered, there are no US-based suppliers. Sometimes it's speciality items, sometimes it's low cost items that are simply uneconimic to make in the US.

While foreign postal systems have no problem making deliveries to the U.S., they don’t have systems in place to process a tariff and pay it into the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Layfield said. In essence, the Trump administration is now asking foreign mail carriers to act as import tax collectors on behalf of the U.S. government — something they are not set up to do, or may be refusing to do, she said. “Why would a foreign post collect from a local business for a foreign country’s customs?” Layfield said. ”It’s not something that anyone has done before.” And with tariff rates changing all the time at the whim of the nutcase President, why would they?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/com...S&cvid=68b16349a7404e3aae0cfb080b56d760&ei=25
 
ChloeTzang said:

U.S. shoppers see order cancellations as world shuts down America-bound shipments​


U.S. shoppers ordering smaller goods from abroad are being met with waves of cancellation notices ahead of a key trade rule change ordered by the Trump administration. On Friday, the United States will end the nearly century-old de minimis exemption, which allowed items worth less than $800 to be shipped to the country duty-free, or without having to pay any tariffs. In advance of the official termination date for the exemption, many European nations, alongside Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and New Zealand, have announced temporary suspensions of U.S.-bound shipments. U.S. e-commerce hubs have since posted notices warning customers about shipping disruptions. Last week, Etsy announced it would no longer process purchases for goods sent via Australia Post, Canada Post and the United Kingdom’s Evri and Royal Mail services, in anticipation of those firms shutting down U.S. deliveries. “Given the complexities, legal requirements, and poor experience, many postal providers will be suspending” delivery options to the U.S., Etsy said. Online auction site eBay has likewise warned that sellers who rely on foreign postal services will have to find alternative shipping processors to get their products to U.S. customers.

But private, third-party carriers which may already have tariff-collection systems in place can cost as much as four times the amount of sending an item via regular post, said Alison Layfield, vice president of product development at ePost Global, a California-based logistics firm. “Customers are going to be very shocked,” she said.

Administration officials have argued that anyone affected by the change should simply switch to U.S.-based suppliers. Seriously, they're out to lunch and probably a few sausages short of a full BBQ along with it. For a lot of what's ordered, there are no US-based suppliers. Sometimes it's speciality items, sometimes it's low cost items that are simply uneconimic to make in the US.

While foreign postal systems have no problem making deliveries to the U.S., they don’t have systems in place to process a tariff and pay it into the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Layfield said. In essence, the Trump administration is now asking foreign mail carriers to act as import tax collectors on behalf of the U.S. government — something they are not set up to do, or may be refusing to do, she said. “Why would a foreign post collect from a local business for a foreign country’s customs?” Layfield said. ”It’s not something that anyone has done before.” And with tariff rates changing all the time at the whim of the nutcase President, why would they?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/com...S&cvid=68b16349a7404e3aae0cfb080b56d760&ei=25
Click to expand...
The lack of thinking and foresight by this administration is no longer surprising. The damage being done is expected.

While the economy continues to chug along so does inflation. The end of the year and 1q 2026 will be interesting given the tariffs and changes to aggregating data.
 
ChloeTzang said:

U.S. shoppers see order cancellations as world shuts down America-bound shipments​


U.S. shoppers ordering smaller goods from abroad are being met with waves of cancellation notices ahead of a key trade rule change ordered by the Trump administration. On Friday, the United States will end the nearly century-old de minimis exemption, which allowed items worth less than $800 to be shipped to the country duty-free, or without having to pay any tariffs. In advance of the official termination date for the exemption, many European nations, alongside Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and New Zealand, have announced temporary suspensions of U.S.-bound shipments. U.S. e-commerce hubs have since posted notices warning customers about shipping disruptions. Last week, Etsy announced it would no longer process purchases for goods sent via Australia Post, Canada Post and the United Kingdom’s Evri and Royal Mail services, in anticipation of those firms shutting down U.S. deliveries. “Given the complexities, legal requirements, and poor experience, many postal providers will be suspending” delivery options to the U.S., Etsy said. Online auction site eBay has likewise warned that sellers who rely on foreign postal services will have to find alternative shipping processors to get their products to U.S. customers.

But private, third-party carriers which may already have tariff-collection systems in place can cost as much as four times the amount of sending an item via regular post, said Alison Layfield, vice president of product development at ePost Global, a California-based logistics firm. “Customers are going to be very shocked,” she said.

Administration officials have argued that anyone affected by the change should simply switch to U.S.-based suppliers. Seriously, they're out to lunch and probably a few sausages short of a full BBQ along with it. For a lot of what's ordered, there are no US-based suppliers. Sometimes it's speciality items, sometimes it's low cost items that are simply uneconimic to make in the US.

While foreign postal systems have no problem making deliveries to the U.S., they don’t have systems in place to process a tariff and pay it into the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Layfield said. In essence, the Trump administration is now asking foreign mail carriers to act as import tax collectors on behalf of the U.S. government — something they are not set up to do, or may be refusing to do, she said. “Why would a foreign post collect from a local business for a foreign country’s customs?” Layfield said. ”It’s not something that anyone has done before.” And with tariff rates changing all the time at the whim of the nutcase President, why would they?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/com...S&cvid=68b16349a7404e3aae0cfb080b56d760&ei=25
Click to expand...
FAKE NEWS
 
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