The Trade War

[Kantarii]

On Hong kong, I'm thinking the Chinese are going to lose that argument. They're going to have to step back and reconsider their policies vis a vis Hong Kong. There are simply too many people in the street.

I think Taiwan is taking advantage of the Hong Kong situation. Nothing like a fair amount of social unrest to further one’s ambitions of independence, right?

 

[HisArpy]

On Hong kong, I'm thinking the Chinese are going to lose that argument. They're going to have to step back and reconsider their policies vis a vis Hong Kong. There are simply too many people in the street.

Which is the question.

Does China squash them? Or not?

Markets don't like military conflict. Right now the market isn't looking favorably at China and moving against HK isn't going to help that at all.

China is hurting economically because of trade tariffs. Tipping the market against China doesn't help on that front either. Yet, letting HK gain sovereignty costs China that entire market share and it's tax base. Can we all say OUCHIE?

China is between a rock and a hard place. I believe the only play they have is to wait and see what changes. Other forces are in play and if those are successful, then China may have an opening it can exploit to overcome its problems in HK and economically while advancing it's global domination plan at the same time.

 

[LukNotLuke]

Stocks Are Telling Trump He Made a Big Mistake

Tell people what to do in order to get what they want, and they will probably do it. That appears to be a key takeaway after two days of market drama.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made clear that the central bank’s reaction function was changing. Rather than looking at the labor market, the main reason it cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point was “the implications of global developments for the economic outlook.” Further questioning made clear that he was talking about the trade situation and the risk of a worsening conflict. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump tweeted that he was disappointed that the Fed had not been more aggressive.

On Thursday came the news, in another presidential tweet, that there will be a 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports to the U.S. as of Sept. 1. The market reaction was dramatic. Stocks and commodities – particularly oil – tumbled on the negative implications for economic growth. And the cash and U.S. Treasury markets signaled their greatest certainty yet that the Fed will be lowering rates again next month.

When the Fed’s reaction function is led by measures of inflation and employment, neither of which the president can control (even if policies can affect them), then there is little Trump can do to force the central bank’s hand. But when the Fed is driven by “global developments” over trade, then he can very directly engineer a cut in rates by threatening new tariffs on key trading partners.

 

[icanhelp1]

Have you noticed that the mainstream media is only focusing on the impacts on the American economy and avoiding the impacts on the Chinese economy?

Anyway, if we don’t stand up now, who will? Strategic patience isn’t going to work on this issue. Personally, I see, down the road, a decoupling of the two largest economies.

Even the lefty lunes that have somewhat of a brain agree with Trump on this. We need to find more markets for farmers and subsidize them and assist them in changing to another product. Not sure what can be done for the soybean market but as a country we need to protect our farmers. I agree as difficult as it is for our farmers I think most americans agree now is the time to take a stand. We also have quite a few politicians on both sides of the isle that aided and abetted China since the 90's. Clinton failed to put corporations on notice for not protecting secrets. You can lump Uncle Mich in that basket of irresponsible politicians.

 

[Kantarii]

Which is the question.

Does China squash them? Or not?

Markets don't like military conflict. Right now the market isn't looking favorably at China and moving against HK isn't going to help that at all.

China is hurting economically because of trade tariffs. Tipping the market against China doesn't help on that front either. Yet, letting HK gain sovereignty costs China that entire market share and it's tax base. Can we all say OUCHIE?

China is between a rock and a hard place. I believe the only play they have is to wait and see what changes. Other forces are in play and if those are successful, then China may have an opening it can exploit to overcome its problems in HK and economically while advancing it's global domination plan at the same time.

Even without the trade war with the US, I think China has went down a path that is going to have lasting effects. You’re definitely right, markets do not like conflict. One only needs to look to the Middle East and the oil market for proof on that.

 

[Rightguide]

I think Taiwan is taking advantage of the Hong Kong situation. Nothing like a fair amount of social unrest to further one’s ambitions of independence, right?

Hong Kong has always been a special place. For years it was judged the freest place on Earth. Freedom, especially economic freedom is in the blood of its citizens. I think it's entirely possible that Hong Kong could be the political spark that eventually brings down the mainland communist regime.

 

[Kantarii]

Even the lefty lunes that have somewhat of a brain agree with Trump on this. We need to find more markets for farmers and subsidize them and assist them in changing to another product. Not sure what can be done for the soybean market but as a country we need to protect our farmers. I agree as difficult as it is for our farmers I think most americans agree now is the time to take a stand. We also have quite a few politicians on both sides of the isle that aided and abetted China since the 90's. Clinton failed to put corporations on notice for not protecting secrets. You can lump Uncle Mich in that basket of irresponsible politicians.

Agriculture isn’t as big a deal in the grand scheme of things with Trump. Technology and IP theft are most likely the driving force here. You can’t be a world power if all you’re worried about is selling soy beans. It’s only an issue because once crops are planted that’s it until harvest time. No market to sell equals a loss.

 

[Kantarii]

Hong Kong has always been a special place. For years it was judged the freest place on Earth. Freedom, especially economic freedom is in the blood of its citizens. I think it's entirely possible that Hong Kong could be the political spark that eventually brings down the mainland communist regime.

It certainly has the potential to exceed the 1989 protest in Tiennamen Square simply because the people in Hong Kong know what freedom tastes like compared to communism.

 

[HisArpy]

Agriculture isn’t as big a deal in the grand scheme of things with Trump. Technology and IP theft are most likely the driving force here. You can’t be a world power if all you’re worried about is selling soy beans. It’s only an issue because once crops are planted that’s it until harvest time. No market to sell equals a loss.

On the flip side, if the US switches to producing another ag product there's nothing to buy and China's people go hungry.

China cannot win this game. The only hope they have is if policy changes. Which is why 2020 is going to be critical.

 

[bellisarius]

Hong Kong did NOT precipitate what's going on there, China did.

 

[jomar]

Help me out here you knowledgeable Trump guys...

Trump: “They’re paying for these tariffs; we’re not. […], “It’s been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs.”

My question is is Trump lying when he says these things or does he not know how it works. TIA!

 

[Kantarii]

On the flip side, if the US switches to producing another ag product there's nothing to buy and China's people go hungry.

China cannot win this game. The only hope they have is if policy changes. Which is why 2020 is going to be critical.

I was under the impression the Chinese were using soybeans for pig feed and soy sauce.

 

[HisArpy]

I was under the impression the Chinese were using soybeans for pig feed and soy sauce.

Pigs gotta eat too. Without oinkers, the regular folks go hungry.

 

[Rightguide]

Hong Kong did NOT precipitate what's going on there, China did.

I think the Chinese regime were completely taken by surprise by the reaction of Hong Kong's citizens to their latest edict. I mean to tell ya, when you have 2 million people hitting the streets you're looking at a friggin' revolution that can't be swept under the rug with a military pogrom. Not in today's era of instant mass communication.

 

[phrodeau]

Help me out here you knowledgeable Trump guys...

Trump: “They’re paying for these tariffs; we’re not. […], “It’s been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs.”

My question is is Trump lying when he says these things or does he not know how it works. TIA!

See what Fox News has to say.

https://youtu.be/BV8cxEIIhCE

 

[Kantarii]

Pigs gotta eat too. Without oinkers, the regular folks go hungry.

Hahaha.... the worms, too, if we’re gonna go Josey Wales here
Same holds true for the Arabs and their oil. They can’t drink it.

 

[Rightguide]

Help me out here you knowledgeable Trump guys...

Trump: “They’re paying for these tariffs; we’re not. […], “It’s been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs.”

My question is is Trump lying when he says these things or does he not know how it works. TIA!

The Chinese are paying a heavy economic price. Americans will have to accept some pain in order to put this situation right, as well.

 

[HisArpy]

I think the Chinese regime were completely taken by surprise by the reaction of Hong Kong's citizens to their latest edict. I mean to tell ya, when you have 2 million people hitting the streets you're looking at a friggin' revolution that can't be swept under the rug with a military pogrom. Not in today's era of instant mass communication.

100,000 dead in quelling the uprising would stop it fast. International condemnation won't change anything afterward either.

 

[jomar]

The Chinese are paying a heavy economic price. Americans will have to accept some pain in order to put this situation right, as well.

Yes, I know, but the question remains unanswered.

 

[Kantarii]

I think the Chinese regime were completely taken by surprise by the reaction of Hong Kong's citizens to their latest edict. I mean to tell ya, when you have 2 million people hitting the streets you're looking at a friggin' revolution that can't be swept under the rug with a military pogrom. Not in today's era of instant mass communication.

China got away with their actions in 1989 suppressing the protests and controlling the spread of information about it. But, in the age of social media and considering Hong Kong is a lot more “open”, the situation over there is being showcased to the world. China is kinda screwed if they use military intervention to put down the protests. Things could get ugly in a hurry.

 

[Kantarii]

Help me out here you knowledgeable Trump guys...

Trump: “They’re paying for these tariffs; we’re not. […], “It’s been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs.”

My question is is Trump lying when he says these things or does he not know how it works. TIA!

Everyone knows tariffs are paid by the consumer at some point if you’re looking at it from the monetary standpoint. China is paying the cost with an economic downturn and factories moving to other countries. Then, there’s a higher unemployment rate as a result. Do the math.

The US Economy is humming along. Unemployment is at all time lows.

Now, China is an export driven economy. What do you think happens when you have 100,000,000 able workers from an aging population of a billion(+) unemployed?

 

[HisArpy]

Yes, I know, but the question remains unanswered.

From a purely economical perspective, the "it's a tax on the consumer" rallying cry isn't all that remarkable since consumers pay taxes anyway.

What these people have done is intermix politics with economics to develop the idea that somehow without the tariffs consumers would pay less for their goods while China continues to acquire and possess more and more of the US national debt. A debt which is unending and ever growing. One which is paid for by US taxpayer dollars.

So, pay up front once, or pay on the backside forever. Choose one and realize that no matter which you decide upon, you're STILL paying.

 

[bellisarius]

Everyone knows tariffs are paid by the consumer at some point if you’re looking at it from the monetary standpoint. China is paying the cost with an economic downturn and factories moving to other countries. Then, there’s a higher unemployment rate as a result. Do the math.

Not if I choose not to buy Chinese shit.

 

[jomar]

Everyone knows tariffs are paid by the consumer at some point if you’re looking at it from the monetary standpoint. China is paying the cost with an economic downturn and factories moving to other countries. Then, there’s a higher unemployment rate as a result. Do the math.

From a purely economical perspective, the "it's a tax on the consumer" rallying cry isn't all that remarkable since consumers pay taxes anyway.

What these people have done is intermix politics with economics to develop the idea that somehow without the tariffs consumers would pay less for their goods while China continues to acquire and possess more and more of the US national debt. A debt which is unending and ever growing. One which is paid for by US taxpayer dollars.

So, pay up front once, or pay on the backside forever. Choose one and realize that no matter which you decide upon, you're STILL paying.

So you two agree Trump’s lying when he says, “It’s been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs.”

Appreciate the honesty.

 

[Rightguide]

100,000 dead in quelling the uprising would stop it fast. International condemnation won't change anything afterward either.

True, but I don't think anything of the sort will happen. The free world would isolate China, they'd look like North Korea and be in the same boat. I think they're going to quietly change their policy.