The Trade War

[HisArpy]

So you two agree Trump’s lying when he says, “It’s been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs.”

Appreciate the honesty.

Spin isn't truth, it's a lie masquerading as a delectable taste of nothingness.

Enjoy your spin. I hope you find it as nourishing and satisfying as it can possible be.

 

[Kantarii]

So you two agree Trump’s lying when he says, “It’s been proven that our people are not paying for those tariffs.”

Appreciate the honesty.

You’re hung up on the “Trump is a liar” thing. All politicians are liars.

 

[cowslinger64]

You’re hung up on the “Trump is a liar” thing. All politicians are liars.

Last count was just shy of eleven thousand..

Outright lies like? All new territory.

 

[Kantarii]

True, but I don't think anything of the sort will happen. The free world would isolate China, they'd look like North Korea and be in the same boat. I think they're going to quietly change their policy.

I’m waiting on shit to escalate with the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea next. It’s coming.

 

[icanhelp1]

Agriculture isn’t as big a deal in the grand scheme of things with Trump. Technology and IP theft are most likely the driving force here. You can’t be a world power if all you’re worried about is selling soy beans. It’s only an issue because once crops are planted that’s it until harvest time. No market to sell equals a loss.

Both our farmers and IT are national security issues. I mentioned both in my statement. We've had politicians that did us injustices in the past when dealing with China.

 

[jomar]

Spin isn't truth, it's a lie masquerading as a delectable taste of nothingness.

Enjoy your spin. I hope you find it as nourishing and satisfying as it can possible be.

Trump doesn’t do spin. He can’t be that subtle.

You’re hung up on the “Trump is a liar” thing. All politicians are liars.

Nah, not hung up on his resting state...if his lips are moving...

While all politicians might be liars, Trump does it more bigly and boldly.

Just having some fun here, is all.

 

[Kantarii]

Both our farmers and IT are national security issues. I mentioned both in my statement. We've have politicians that did us injustices in the past when dealing with China.

I don’t see the agriculture side being a national security issue like the IP theft. It’s possible, but America could probably feed the world with corn if it had to. Totally agree on the past dealings with China. This has been a long time coming. They’ve had years to open their markets. Nothing was done.

 

[Kantarii]

Nah, not hung up on his resting state...if his lips are moving...

While all politicians might be liars, Trump does it more bigly and boldly.

Just having some fun here, is all.

There’s nothing wrong with having fun here(on Lit). But, when it comes to investing my money in the stock market, seriousness trumps having fun.

 

[Rightguide]

I’m waiting on shit to escalate with the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea next. It’s coming.

The Chinese might win that one, but not without a broken nose and two black eyes.

 

[Kantarii]

The Chinese might win that one, but not without a broken nose and two black eyes.

America has a lot of experience when it comes to taking over islands in the Pacific. If China was going to take Taiwan by force, they’d have done it by now. The fear of America intervening on Taiwan’s behalf keeps them on the mainland, in my opinion.

 

[Sean]

The Chinese economy is tanking.

6.2% growth last quarter. The US would kill for growth like that.

 

[moarBB]

China makes up #'s.....no one buys what they say

 

[moarBB]

China needs America

America doesnt need China

http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?p=91113335#post91113335

BTW, the Chinx have billions to invest, they cant invest in EuroPUKE cause they get NEGATIVE returns, only the US gives em $ back

The US should tell DUH CHINNX from now on, we give you .05% instead of 1.9%....where the Chinx gonna go?

Or

If the CHINX get uppity, the US should say...All the trillions you have in bonds and bills? WE AINT PAYIN YOU, FUCK OFF SLANT EYES

 

[HisArpy]

6.2% growth last quarter. The US would kill for growth like that.

I hope you realize that that particular claim has been refuted by some experts who have shown that China is manipulating the data through the way they're reporting.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us

https://www.investors.com/politics/...iterally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-economy-not-so-big-after-all-46887

And so on.

 

[Kantarii]

Bill Maher is a fucking idiot for saying a recession would be worth it if Trump doesn’t get re-elected.


https://apple.news/AaGZHvHvaQ_SPmWuvNuVN6A

Like where in the fuck does the Left find these retards?

 

[ishtat]

Obviously the Tarriff war is damaging to China, but is it helpful to the USA? There are reports of manufacturing relocating to Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Central America, but not so much to the USA, which is still an expensive labour market. At the same time this protectionism is unhelpfully driving up the value of the US dollar making it harder for the USA to export..

It is perfectly reasonable for the situation to develop where the tarriff war damages both China and USA - not just China.

 

[BotanyBoy]

I hope you realize that that particular claim has been refuted by some experts who have shown that China is manipulating the data through the way they're reporting.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us

https://www.investors.com/politics/...iterally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-economy-not-so-big-after-all-46887

And so on.

Sean is a good Comrade, he'd never consider such blasphemous things!!!

 

[bellisarius]

Obviously the Tarriff war is damaging to China, but is it helpful to the USA? There are reports of manufacturing relocating to Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Central America, but not so much to the USA, which is still an expensive labour market. At the same time this protectionism is unhelpfully driving up the value of the US dollar making it harder for the USA to export..

It is perfectly reasonable for the situation to develop where the tarriff war damages both China and USA - not just China.

Those moves predate the the trade war with China and are primarily in the textile/apparel industry. As China's economy improved so have the wages in that industry escalated to the point where other SE Asian nations are more attractive as a manufacturing base.

There is no doubt that the tariff war is impactful on both economies. But that is a matter of degree's. China is considerably more dependent on trade with the US than the US is on China. The standout in this is agriculture. The products that China exports to the US fall heavily into the discretionary purchase category whereas the grains (food) we export to China is much less so.

All of the above goes to point out the risk China is running in this battle. Other nations will be more than happy to try to gear up to fill the void which will undoubtedly begin to cut into China's market share. The longer this goes on, the higher the risk. Obviously the counter-point can be made that the US faces the same risk. This is true but only to a limited extent. You can't put up a plant and start manufacturing Soy beans. That requires arable land and a transportation infrastructure. The geography of the central US is unique among nations in that respect.

So far China has managed to stave off the worst of the impact by devaluing its currency. But that is, and has been, one of the sticking points in the negotiations, namely China's currency manipulation. They can only go so far with that policy though. At some point the Xi/Li regime will have to come to the table. The difficulty there is in finding a path that will allow them to claim some sort of victory (save face) and that will be a difficult path considering the borderline insane preferential treatment China has enjoyed up to this point in time.

 

[moarBB]

We dont need Duh CHINX

Duh Chinx need us

TRUMP KNOWS THIS:

China Wants to Hit Back at Trump. Its Own Economy Stands in the Way. Even the threat to stop buying Boeing planes is hollow now that everyone else has . . .

 

[moarBB]

Apparently, Mexico has now displaced China as America’s number 1 trading partner.


China lost its spot as the U.S.'s biggest trading partner in the first half of 2019, thanks to the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies.

Might be interesting to see how this plays out now.

https://apple.news/AI_zqByaiREKXPQtwz6LC2w

Sorry, Bub

This Thread is NOT nearly as good as the REAL CHINK TRADE thread

http://forum.literotica.com/showthread.php?p=91115609#post91115609

 

[moarBB]

So far China has managed to stave off the worst of the impact by devaluing its currency. But that is, and has been, one of the sticking points in the negotiations, namely China's currency manipulation. They can only go so far with that policy though. At some point the Xi/Li regime will have to come to the table. The difficulty there is in finding a path that will allow them to claim some sort of victory (save face) and that will be a difficult path considering the borderline insane preferential treatment China has enjoyed up to this point in time.

they WONT come to the table, cause they are working to defeat Trump

if and when Trump wins, they better agree or Trump will slap 50% on em and worse....he already said so

for decades Duh Chinx have exploited us!

 

[ishtat]

I think that the comment by Bellisarius is excessively optimistic from a US point of view but to a great extent only time will tell. Personally I think that intellectual property theft is a bigger issue than tarriffs or currency but perhaps because it has impacted my own business.

China is not in fact dependent on the USA (or anywhere else) for significant food imports for human consumption, it is largely self sufficient. Soya products are an animal feedstock and the Chinese are fairly successfully obtaining replacements in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay which between them out produce the USA. The Chinese obviously produce far more rice than the USA but less obviously 3 to 4 times as much wheat.

Where the USA has a huge advantage is with corn (360mt+), but the Chinese use practically none. Probably the best outcome for US farmers would be to wind back feedstock (soya) exports and put it into beef and pork production - then export the meat (less bulk+ higher value)

The brutal truth is that a few whining soya bean farmers make good television but in the grand scheme of things they're not that important. I suspect that Trump's true agenda is that without an independently verifiable cessation of intellectual property and copyright theft, there will be no deal at all. That will be difficult especially the "independently verifiable" part.

My pessimism is based on the assumption that this is going to take considerably longer to work through than originally anticipated.

 

[bellisarius]

I think that the comment by Bellisarius is excessively optimistic from a US point of view but to a great extent only time will tell. Personally I think that intellectual property theft is a bigger issue than tarriffs or currency but perhaps because it has impacted my own business.

China is not in fact dependent on the USA (or anywhere else) for significant food imports for human consumption, it is largely self sufficient. Soya products are an animal feedstock and the Chinese are fairly successfully obtaining replacements in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay which between them out produce the USA. The Chinese obviously produce far more rice than the USA but less obviously 3 to 4 times as much wheat.

Where the USA has a huge advantage is with corn (360mt+), but the Chinese use practically none. Probably the best outcome for US farmers would be to wind back feedstock (soya) exports and put it into beef and pork production - then export the meat (less bulk+ higher value)

The brutal truth is that a few whining soya bean farmers make good television but in the grand scheme of things they're not that important. I suspect that Trump's true agenda is that without an independently verifiable cessation of intellectual property and copyright theft, there will be no deal at all. That will be difficult especially the "independently verifiable" part.

My pessimism is based on the assumption that this is going to take considerably longer to work through than originally anticipated.

You make good points and I completely over looked the intellectual property situation. In that respect the Chinese are equal opportunity thieves. They'll steal from anyone, even their good buddies the Russians.

Then there are the drugs. China is the source of virtually 100% of the fentanyl flooding in. They agreed to cut that out 2 years ago and the cartels were going to gear up to produce it themselves. But the Chinese reassured them that the supplies weren't gong to dry up.

In effect the Chinese government is considerably more like a criminal syndicate than what we in the West would consider a government and fighting crime costs money.

 

[BotanyBoy]

Y
In effect the Chinese government is considerably more like a criminal syndicate than what we in the West would consider a government and fighting crime costs money.

That must explain the lefties in the west having a conniption fit over not bending Americans over for the Chinese to take advantage of.

 

[Rightguide]

America has a lot of experience when it comes to taking over islands in the Pacific. If China was going to take Taiwan by force, they’d have done it by now. The fear of America intervening on Taiwan’s behalf keeps them on the mainland, in my opinion.

That and the Chinese doesn't have a world class amphibious force to get the job done either. They'd have top nuke Taiwan to take it out. If we give the free Chinese the right kind of aircraft and weapons they'll fuck up the Chinese air force, and their Navy as well. They have a military full of competent warriors.