The Trade War

[Adre]

Smart money is leaving HK as fast as it can.

If there’s evidence of this I’d like to see it.

 

[icanhelp1]

Xi realized what a unmitigated disaster his devaluation move was and retracted it overnight. Quite frankly the fact that he even went there as a knee jerk reaction is an indication of the fragility of the Chinese economy. Their GDP growth numbers as well as their internal production numbers are a myth. Their real GDP numbers are no more than 1% and most likely in contraction right now. Their M2 numbers are on the order of 230% as compared to the US M2 which is ~69%. They are WAY over leveraged.

Xi is between a rock and a hard place right now and the Chinese Communist Party is NOT a monolithic organism. He has enemies within the party and if (when) he falters they are going to strike.

Looking back to when Xi was elected "president for life" and Trump remarked about that. The communist press in the US jumped all over him accusing him of wanting the same. I remember his tone of voice when he made that statement and revisiting I detect a note of sarcasm there. He has his daily briefings on the state of affairs globally and considerably more specifics on the state of the Chinese economy than we mere peons have. One is left to wonder if that statement fell more into the category of, "President for life? We'll see about that."

So the question is, "How far will Xi go to save his own ass?" And that's where Hong Kong comes in. If he fears that the protests there will metastasize into the mainland and his regime in particular he is likely to put HK down no matter what the cost. We've already witnessed his knee jerk reaction to the tariff's, the same sort of knee jerk isn't out of the question re. HK. The difference is that once he sends those troops in he won't be able to change his mind overnight. All of his enemies will come out of the woodwork if he were to pull out as fast as he went in. He is balancing on the edge of a razor blade right now.

If China loses their financial crown jewel by invasion it will set them back to the 60s, they will lose world markets and probably collapse from within, riots on the mainland.

 

[Kantarii]

Not with the US fleet in the area....

It would be a catastrophic mistake for China to invade Taiwan. Even if they win militarily, they’d lose more in other areas.

 

[Kantarii]

What’s on China’s plate?

Trade war with America - check
Businesses relocating to other countries - check
Hong Kong protests - check
Taiwan arms sale - check
American ships traversing the Taiwan strait - check
South China Sea disputes - check
North Korea acting a fool - check
Border disputes with India - check

Did I forget anything important that has the region destabilized to a point that something major is bound to happen?

 

[icanhelp1]

What’s on China’s plate?

Trade war with America - check
Businesses relocating to other countries - check
Hong Kong protests - check
Taiwan arms sale - check
American ships traversing the Taiwan strait - check
South China Sea disputes - check
North Korea acting a fool - check
Border disputes with India - check

Did I forget anything important that has the region destabilized to a point that something major is bound to happen?

Since appointed to the lifetime ruler he has to comply with the hardliners. Everything you pointed to is valid. As things ratchet up saving face becomes more dangerous and difficult. Their economy is teetering on total collapse. Devaluation of their currency is going to be rejected by the world bank and leading world economies which could lead to countries doing business elsewhere and moving their businesses to friendlier businesses partners.

 

[cowslinger64]

As President Donald Trump doubles down on tariff threats against China, the price tag of the year-long trade war is climbing for U.S. businesses.

U.S. importers have paid $6 billion in tariffs in June, a 74% jump compared to a year ago, despite a slight decline in the value of imports. And 3.4 billion of them come from the tariffs President Trump put in place. This is according to research released on Wednesday by the business coalition “Tariffs Hurt the Heartland” in conjunction with The Trade Partnership, a Washington-based trade and economic consulting firm.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-tariffs-cost-us-businesses-6-billion-june-093529310.html

 

[HisArpy]

As President Donald Trump doubles down on tariff threats against China, the price tag of the year-long trade war is climbing for U.S. businesses.

U.S. importers have paid $6 billion in tariffs in June, a 74% jump compared to a year ago, despite a slight decline in the value of imports. And 3.4 billion of them come from the tariffs President Trump put in place. This is according to research released on Wednesday by the business coalition “Tariffs Hurt the Heartland” in conjunction with The Trade Partnership, a Washington-based trade and economic consulting firm.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trumps-tariffs-cost-us-businesses-6-billion-june-093529310.html

I read this kind of dreck and I keep wondering how these economists keep forgetting one facet. If tariffs are so bad and they hurt the country which levies them, why isn't China laughing it's ass off at the US?

 

[domroger]

I read this kind of dreck and I keep wondering how these economists keep forgetting one facet. If tariffs are so bad and they hurt the country which levies them, why isn't China laughing it's ass off at the US?

Everyone's laughing at the US .

 

[HisArpy]

Everyone's laughing at the US .

Suuuurre they are.

 

[icanhelp1]

I read this kind of dreck and I keep wondering how these economists keep forgetting one facet. If tariffs are so bad and they hurt the country which levies them, why isn't China laughing it's ass off at the US?

China devaluating their currency is offsetting the tariffs by making things cheaper for importing countries. Lower import prices takes the sting out of the tariffs but unfortunately it doesn’t provide relief for our farmers.

 

[Rightguide]

I read this kind of dreck and I keep wondering how these economists keep forgetting one facet. If tariffs are so bad and they hurt the country which levies them, why isn't China laughing it's ass off at the US?

Becaue every time they get the giggles their assholes hurt.

 

[Rightguide]

Everyone's laughing at the US .

The economically ignorant left is not "everyone."

 

[HisArpy]

China devaluating their currency is offsetting the tariffs by making things cheaper for importing countries. Lower import prices takes the sting out of the tariffs but unfortunately it doesn’t provide relief for our farmers.

Here's an eye opener for you. When you engage in business, you're betting that tomorrow there's going to be a demand for the product you have on the market.

Sometimes there is. Sometimes there ain't.

Anyone who doesn't understand that shouldn't be in business. Whining about how tariff's are "hurting our farmers" in that context is stupid. Especially when you consider that the offset for farmers to be able to sell their crops cheap means that EVERY FUCKING ONE OF THE REST OF US is basically subsidizing those "cheap" soybean sales with higher national debt for DECADES.

Economical opinions based on politics are lunacy and anyone who believes their horseshit needs to grow a brain.

 

[cowslinger64]

Becaue every time they get the giggles their assholes hurt.

Another nugget of vette wisdom.



Leave it to the ball lickers to disregard, deflect and spin.

 

[KnottBeBe]

Everyone's laughing at the US .

who is EVERYONE?

 

[icanhelp1]

Here's an eye opener for you. When you engage in business, you're betting that tomorrow there's going to be a demand for the product you have on the market.

Sometimes there is. Sometimes there ain't.

Anyone who doesn't understand that shouldn't be in business. Whining about how tariff's are "hurting our farmers" in that context is stupid. Especially when you consider that the offset for farmers to be able to sell their crops cheap means that EVERY FUCKING ONE OF THE REST OF US is basically subsidizing those "cheap" soybean sales with higher national debt for DECADES.

Economical opinions based on politics are lunacy and anyone who believes their horseshit needs to grow a brain.

Most manufacturing due to competition can adjust, some lose and some win, that's how the market works. Farms are not the same as manufacturing entities. Farmers work on tight margins and are susceptible to many different kinds of problems, from foreign fluctuating currency, different and changing demand fluctuations and weather. Futures and commodity markets are not as transparent as most other markets. Most Farms are family owned and once we lose them we lose them forever. I can see your not a big fan of our farmers I AM!! I'd rather subsidise our farmers than give free health care to illegals, free college tuition, eliminate college debt and a whole host of other shit that really increases the debt. Don't blame the debt on farmers, you need to grow a brain!

I do believe they should change product if demand diminishes I'll grant you that.

 

[HisArpy]

Most manufacturing due to competition can adjust, some lose and some win, that's how the market works. Farms are not the same as manufacturing entities. Farmers work on tight margins and are susceptible to many different kinds of problems, from foreign fluctuating currency, different and changing demand fluctuations and weather. Futures and commodity markets are not as transparent as most other markets. Most Farms are family owned and once we lose them we lose them forever. I can see your not a big fan of our farmers I AM!! I'd rather subsidise our farmers than give free health care to illegals, free college tuition, eliminate college debt and a whole host of other shit that really increases the debt. Don't blame the debt on farmers, you need to grow a brain!

I do believe they should change product if demand diminishes I'll grant you that.

I am descended from a generations long line of farmers. Personally, I can't grow anything, but I understand how farming works.

You aren't even close to correct.

We don't have "family farms" anymore. We have "farming co-ops" and "agri-business" running our crop production. Family farms used to plant based on what the forecast need the next year would be. That forecast itself would be based on a whole bunch of factors, one of which is this years crop production and market and the projections of such for next year.

Agri-business doesn't work that way. Agri-business IS "the market". The market moves as agri-business ramps up for harvest and slows down after the harvest is completed. Depending on where the crops are being produced determines which time of the year the market moves and in which direction.

 

[KnottBeBe]

fucking CHINX

Kyle Bass
✔
@Jkylebass
chinese companies circulating at least $200b of IOUs as real payments dry up. The chinese property developers are going to detonate. In an economy of $13t, $200b is a MASSIVE “can’t pay” amount. US banks lost roughly $800b in financial crisis. #china https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/business/china-cash-commercial-acceptances.html …


https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/business/china-cash-commercial-

Circulating in China’s Financial System: More Than $200 Billion in I.O.U.s
As the trade war escalates, Beijing needs private companies to pull China’s economy out of its rut. But for some, ready money can be hard to find.

 

[icanhelp1]

I am descended from a generations long line of farmers. Personally, I can't grow anything, but I understand how farming works.

You aren't even close to correct.

We don't have "family farms" anymore. We have "farming co-ops" and "agri-business" running our crop production. Family farms used to plant based on what the forecast need the next year would be. That forecast itself would be based on a whole bunch of factors, one of which is this years crop production and market and the projections of such for next year.

Agri-business doesn't work that way. Agri-business IS "the market". The market moves as agri-business ramps up for harvest and slows down after the harvest is completed. Depending on where the crops are being produced determines which time of the year the market moves and in which direction.

I don't have a farming background like you but I've read a few articles like this one which seems to indicate that most farms are family owned, so I based my comments on what I read. I am pretty well versed in commodities and futures and hope our farmers get out from Chinese dependency. My parents and grandparents were farmers on a smaller scale and I have a fondness for agriculture. I don't see our farmers getting rich for the most part, so I'd rather take care of them then illegals and people who won't pay their way through college. I'm not disputing your argument I'm only going by what I read. Your background is deeper than mine but I value our farms more than most corporations.

"Corporate farms” and “factory farms” are labels many people give to farms using modern equipment and technology. Following that definition then, you might think “family farms” would be operations using practices and technologies from a bygone era. In truth, a corporation is an ownership structure, not a farming practice. Most farms are modernized and may get labeled as “factory farms,” even though more than 97 percent of them are family-owned, like mine.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), a family farm is owned primarily by the principal operator and his or her family members. Oftentimes, this ownership is passed down through the generations. For example, my husband and I are the fifth generation on our farm.

The other 2.4 percent of U.S. farms are classified by the USDA as owned by a “nonfamily,” which is divided further into subcategories, including corporate farms. Typically, even farms that fall under the “corporate farm” definition have no more than 10 shareholders and have likely incorporated for tax and management purposes.

Both of these definitions focus on ownership of the business and not on farming practices or farm size. In fact, according to the USDA’s Census of Agriculture, some family farms are very large, reaching sales of more than 5 million dollars, and half of nonfamily farms have less than $35,000 in sales per year.

It is important for farmers to have the freedom to choose a business model that works for them, and both family and corporate ownership have advantages. With a family ownership, input from shareholders isn’t needed, so business decisions are made by the people working on the farm every day. My husband and I make decisions about our farm at the dinner table with his parents. On the other hand, a corporation has the ability to seek outside investors to raise the large amount of capital required to run a farm today.

Oftentimes, the people who think of large farms as “factory farms” or corporate-owned are the ones who have never been to a farm and don’t know any farmers personally. The best way to get the facts is to talk to someone like me – a family farmer! What questions do you have?

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Dana Dagman
Dana Dagman
U.S. SOYBEAN FARMER

NORTH DAKOTA

Dana, along with her husband and his parents, farm 2,500 acres of barley, corn, soybeans and wheat in Enderlin, North Dakota.

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[SissySalina]

Are they really gonna trade wars, why. America almost has this one won so why trade it now?

 

[ishtat]

Dana, along with her husband and his parents, farm 2,500 acres of barley, corn, soybeans and wheat in Enderlin, North Dakota.

Interesting. Their Farm is between 5 and 6 times greater in size than the average (440 acres) so hardly a typical example.

 

[bellisarius]

Interesting. Their Farm is between 5 and 6 times greater in size than the average (440 acres) so hardly a typical example.

"Average" farm size in the Dakota's is 1,300 acres and based solely on the crops raised it is typical for the region.

 

[Kantarii]

Gonna be interesting to see what happens when more and more companies relocate from mainland China to other countries. Things like this are bound to happen when everyone puts all the eggs in one basket and choose to manufacture in a single country.

 

[icanhelp1]

"Average" farm size in the Dakota's is 1,300 acres and based solely on the crops raised it is typical for the region.

I can't begin to understand his point of view and how it relates to my fondness for farmers in general.

 

[bellisarius]

I can't begin to understand his point of view and how it relates to my fondness for farmers in general.

I can't either. I'm having a hard time with "typical." Just what is a typical farm? If all farms were the same size and 80% used John Deere equipment would the 20% that didn't be atypical? <shrug>

I did a little research re. the agricultural purchases by China, primarily Soy meal. It turns out that that is the majority of their ag. imports from the US. Soy meal is what's left over after the oil is pressed out. The Chinese use it as a livestock feed for their swine. Imports would have plummeted regardless of the trade war. African Swine Flu is sweeping through Asia and those farmers are having to cull their herds. Meaning that if they want pork they're going to have to import it - from somewhere. Driving pork prices up, meaning increased demand meaning that other pork raising nations will have to increase their Soy meal imports and/or domestic production. So, the market is disrupted until adjustments can be made for the new norm.