The Trade War

[bigsly]

Now that China has been labeled a currency manipulator, we’ll see where things go from here. Labeling them one doesn’t mean much, though. I suspected it was bound to happen sooner or later.

I hope it doesn’t happen, but unless trade war is resolved the next phase may be a move towards a real war with China.

https://apple.news/AwowrU5sGRdufFi6YWZFdDw

Perfect time for pro-liberty Hong Kongers to really ratchet it up.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Apparently, Mexico has now displaced China as America’s number 1 trading partner.


China lost its spot as the U.S.'s biggest trading partner in the first half of 2019, thanks to the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies.

Might be interesting to see how this plays out now.

https://apple.news/AI_zqByaiREKXPQtwz6LC2w

China has all kinds of problems on its hands. Yet, all it really needs to do is stop acting like a rogue nation and it all goes away.

Right now they are worried that the civil unrest in Hong Kong may spread to the rest of the mainland.

 

[moarBB]

Now that China has been labeled a currency manipulator, we’ll see where things go from here. Labeling them one doesn’t mean much, though. I suspected it was bound to happen sooner or later.

I hope it doesn’t happen, but unless trade war is resolved the next phase may be a move towards a real war with China.

https://apple.news/AwowrU5sGRdufFi6YWZFdDw

where they gonna BURY all those bodies???????

 

[moarBB]

whats interesting to me is how long the riots in HK has lasted

and how it just gets bigger and bigger

wont peter out

there can be no solution other then an invasion of HK of a break from China, no middle ground

 

[Rightguide]

whats interesting to me is how long the riots in HK has lasted

and how it just gets bigger and bigger

wont peter out

there can be no solution other then an invasion of HK of a break from China, no middle ground

And the only thing holding it up is how it's going to look on TV and Youtube when Chinese tanks start rolling over protesters.

 

[Kantarii]

And the only thing holding it up is how it's going to look on TV and Youtube when Chinese tanks start rolling over protesters.

1989. Rinse and repeat.

 

[bigsly]

whats interesting to me is how long the riots in HK has lasted

and how it just gets bigger and bigger

wont peter out

there can be no solution other then an invasion of HK of a break from China, no middle ground

Ah, just black or white, no gray whatsoever. And whichever way it plays in Hong Kong, Taiwan is next.

No doubt Xi and Putin are planning on how to deceive all opposition and cover communist China's flanks if Xi decides to wield the hammer and sickle against whom he considers his subjects.

I love the smell of righteous revolution in the morning!

 

[bellisarius]

Xi probably will go after HK and it will be bloody. HK isn't exactly built for armored cars and tanks. The PLA is going to have to take every foot, on foot. When they get done China's global image will be in the shitter right along with their economy.

Xi started believing his own "mandate from heaven" bullshit.

 

[Kantarii]

Xi probably will go after HK and it will be bloody. HK isn't exactly built for armored cars and tanks. The PLA is going to have to take every foot, on foot. When they get done China's global image will be in the shitter right along with their economy.

Xi started believing his own "mandate from heaven" bullshit.

Honk Kong is pretty open. Anything China does against Hong Kong is going to be all over the news and internet. Gonna be hard to suppress what China does.

 

[Kantarii]

US companies need to take the hint to get out of China. Some may come back to America, most will relocate elsewhere, but doing business in China is gonna be a problem moving forward.

https://apple.news/AWW9jkzH6TsSeJZHHVVvVWQ
Kant

 

[bellisarius]

Xi realized what a unmitigated disaster his devaluation move was and retracted it overnight. Quite frankly the fact that he even went there as a knee jerk reaction is an indication of the fragility of the Chinese economy. Their GDP growth numbers as well as their internal production numbers are a myth. Their real GDP numbers are no more than 1% and most likely in contraction right now. Their M2 numbers are on the order of 230% as compared to the US M2 which is ~69%. They are WAY over leveraged.

Xi is between a rock and a hard place right now and the Chinese Communist Party is NOT a monolithic organism. He has enemies within the party and if (when) he falters they are going to strike.

Looking back to when Xi was elected "president for life" and Trump remarked about that. The communist press in the US jumped all over him accusing him of wanting the same. I remember his tone of voice when he made that statement and revisiting I detect a note of sarcasm there. He has his daily briefings on the state of affairs globally and considerably more specifics on the state of the Chinese economy than we mere peons have. One is left to wonder if that statement fell more into the category of, "President for life? We'll see about that."

So the question is, "How far will Xi go to save his own ass?" And that's where Hong Kong comes in. If he fears that the protests there will metastasize into the mainland and his regime in particular he is likely to put HK down no matter what the cost. We've already witnessed his knee jerk reaction to the tariff's, the same sort of knee jerk isn't out of the question re. HK. The difference is that once he sends those troops in he won't be able to change his mind overnight. All of his enemies will come out of the woodwork if he were to pull out as fast as he went in. He is balancing on the edge of a razor blade right now.

 

[Kantarii]

Xi has too many pots on the fire right now. It’s going to get interesting in the next few weeks, especially when the new tariffs kick in.

 

[SpeareChucker]

There is a third way, blockade, quarantine and embargo.

China has just enough navy to do that.

 

[bellisarius]

There is a third way, blockade, quarantine and embargo.

China has just enough navy to do that.

That would certainly get interesting.

 

[SpeareChucker]

You know, as well as I do, secret police are already infiltrating and identifying...





Blockade and arrests with deportations in the dark of night.

I could see it.

 

[Kantarii]

Devaluation of the yuan is a big mistake. It would actually hurt China more than help in the trade war. Capital outflow is a bitch.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Their goal is to hurt Trump,
get a Democrat in office and
then go back to business as usual.
They can play a longer game because
there are no election cycles and rare changes in leadership.

Everyone who was appalled and aghast at Russia trying to affect our election
in favor of Trump, is now sitting on their hands while China tries to affect our election
by actively trying to undermine Trump and the United States economy.

As I pointed out somewhere earlier this morning, the conservative Communist Chinese
are becoming the natural allies of the Liberal Left-wing Democrats in the US
both in goal and desire for complete control of their respective societies.

 

[bellisarius]

You know, as well as I do, secret police are already infiltrating and identifying...





Blockade and arrests with deportations in the dark of night.

I could see it.

The infiltration started before the last HK election. The PLA flooded the territories so as to swing the election for the Beijing puppet. And that's what the protests are about, that and the proposed extradition policy.

It would still get brutal no matter what course they follow.

 

[SpeareChucker]

You win the battle before you fight it...

 

[bellisarius]

You win the battle before you fight it...

According to Sun Tzu that's how it's supposed to work.

Smart money is leaving HK as fast as it can. They'll win in the end but it may well be a Pyrrhic victory.

 

[SpeareChucker]

I find it hard to believe that anyone hung around there as long as they did.

The handwriting has been on that wall since the British left.

 

[Kantarii]

I find it hard to believe that anyone hung around there as long as they did.

The handwriting has been on that wall since the British left.

Ain’t that the truth.

 

[SpeareChucker]

There are several viable alternatives.
Singapore and Taiwan come to mind.

 

[bellisarius]

They won't be blockading Taiwan.

 

[SpeareChucker]

Not with the US fleet in the area....