For Those Who Might Be Wondering Why We Might Be In Ukraine

[ChloeTzang]

Let me know when you see any evidence of the above actually happening. I think by this time next year we'll see some kind of negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine. I don't see a return of Crimea, or the eastern provinces in Ukraine ceded to Ukrainian control as a part of those negotiations either. At this point Ukraine doesn't have a lawful ruler and support for Zelensky seems to be waning at home according to this Carnegie report:

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/03/is-zelenskys-legitimacy-really-at-risk?lang=en

I have to agree with Il74 here. Zelensky is the lawful President according to their Constitution, which makes provision for this.

As regards the border, anything less than a return to the 2014 border simply means the war will resume at a later date with a far better prepared Ukraine.

There may or may not be a negotiated settlement, but Trump has already come across with some rather hard-nosed statements about Russia. We will see, because I honestly have no idea. I know what I would like to see, but that and what we will see are likely two different things. All I will say is, Russia gets weaker by the day and Ukraine is getting stronger.

 

[Rightguide]

I have to agree with Il74 here. Zelensky is the lawful President according to their Constitution, which makes provision for this.

As regards the border, anything less than a return to the 2014 border simply means the war will resume at a later date with a far better prepared Ukraine.

There may or may not be a negotiated settlement, but Trump has already come across with some rather hard-nosed statements about Russia. We will see, because I honestly have no idea. I know what I would like to see, but that and what we will see are likely two different things. All I will say is, Russia gets weaker by the day and Ukraine is getting stronger.

I think the opposite is true. The Russians have doubled the size of their army in theater since the beginning of the war. Their military pipeline is one a war footing. The Russian artillery capability is ten times the rate of Ukraine and twice the productive rate of present US capability. In many ways our media is lying to us about any battlefield information that implicates the Biden administration, its public statements, and policy. It simply can't be trusted. The alleged massive sanctions on Russia have failed to achieve the results hoped for because there is an immense demand for Russian gas and oil, even in Europe. Russia is brimming with mineral and petroleum wealth. For instance they are the prime source of titanium and palladium in the World. They are pretty much self sufficient and occupy a vast land mass that is 1.75 times larger than the U.S. Their population is 4 times larger than Ukraine. In addition they have the largest nuclear arsenal in the World. I don't see than falling apart anytime soon. Bottom line Chloe, the U.S. military, which is the vast majority of NATO power, is totally unprepared for ground combat in Europe. There is no support in Europe and the United States for a war with Russia, outside of Washington D.C.

 

[ll74]

Good article in the Telegraph

Putin is leading Russia into a demographic catastrophe​

‘Moscow can always find more men’, one hears people say, justifying Western inaction. It is simply not true

Indeed, many of the vital components necessary to win wars – like military adaptability and modern tech – work in Kyiv’s favour. That’s before one considers its will to survive as a free nation. And one cannot put a figure on that.

 

[Rightguide]

Good article in the Telegraph

Putin is leading Russia into a demographic catastrophe​

Except Ukraine doesn't have a lot of their own technology and there may not be enough time left in the training pipeline to adapt to donated technology before they are forced by the reality on the ground to negotiate.

 

[ll74]

Except Ukraine doesn't have a lot of their own technology and there may not be enough time left in the training pipeline to adapt to donated technology before they are forced by the reality on the ground to negotiate.

The article isn't about Ukraine. It just mentions that Russia's situation favors Kyiv in the conflict.

 

[Rightguide]

The article isn't about Ukraine. It just mentions that Russia's situation favors Kyiv in the conflict.

You're the one who said modern tech worked in Kiev's favor. I simply stated they didn't have much "modern tech" that wasn't donated. Its accessibility to western technology is about to dry up.

 

[ll74]

You're the one who said modern tech worked in Kiev's favor. I simply stated they didn't have much "modern tech" that wasn't donated. Its accessibility to western technology is about to dry up.

Apologies, actually that was from the article. And drone tech has favored Ukraine from the start.

Russia has depended on tech and weapons from other countries as well.

 

[Sean Renaud]

I don't suppose we can get a "If I'm wrong an Ukraine is still standing in say October 2025 I'll just accept I can't predict the future? I mean holy fuck man. I'm usually not wrong. Trump is the only president I didn't predict and I refuse to bet on this one because there are WAY too many X factors. I know exactly who I want to win but I see a lot of avenues for failure. I didn't even have assassination attempt and sympathy vote on my fucking Bingo Card. Now I'm banking on being correct that Americans have terribly short attention spans and even shorter memories. Like maybe come November nobody will remember Trump was nearly killed. Or you know Hunter will die of COVID and everybody will be feeling bad for the Bidens.

That said I expected Ukraine to fall in weeks, months tops. We are sufficiently outside my window, which should correctly be called OUR window since if we aren't nitpicking too much about the calendar date we made the same prediction. I didn't even expect to get anything out of it and we know Russia has suffered serious losses both in raw numbers but also in political clout.

I think if someone was gonna take him out it would have happened by now. They seem to be taking their fucking time from where I'm sitting but if US politics are any example maybe all the good assassins retired during the Cold War and now we're just hoping some teenager gets really lucky. Or you know Tenacious D takes their tour global after making a deal with the Devil. Odder things have happened.

 

[ll74]

The 'humiliating' retreat of Russia's fleet from Crimea proves its threats don't mean anything, expert says​

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ukrainian artillery in action

 

[ChloeTzang]

Music tells you a lot, and if you've never heard of Ilovaisk, and you wonder why Ukraine fights so hard, read up on it....

 

[ChloeTzang]

This song, "The Sword of Areya," is a Ukrainian song from 2004 that became especially popular after the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ukrainian military encircles main Russian strike force on Kharkiv front. Ukrainian forces have launched a significant counteroffensive in Vovchansk, aiming to encircle a large number of Russian troops. This pincer movement poses an imminent risk of encirclement for Russian forces remaining south, including those entrenched at the aggregate plant. While the Russian forces still retain a narrow corridor through which they could theoretically attempt to break out and escape, it may already be too late. Russian authorities have recently imposed restrictions on visiting certain border villages, likely to conceal the true number of troops stationed there. The motive is clear: the initial rescue operation for the aggregate plant failed disastrously, necessitating an even larger rescue effort to prevent the encirclement of the rescuers themselves.

Overall, the situation in Vovchansk has deteriorated significantly for the Russians, who are now desperately trying to avoid the encirclement and surrender of several hundred soldiers. Such a surrender would deal a severe blow to the morale of their troops along the entire front line. The overextension of Russian advances, especially in the logistically challenging area, and their reliance on reinforcements have left their positions vulnerable. With much of the northern part of the city virtually leveled, northern Vovchansk has lost much of its tactical importance, as establishing strongholds there will soon be very difficult. Nonetheless, Vovchansk may soon become a symbol of the turning tide on the front, indicating that the momentum is shifting in favor of the Ukrainian troops.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/07...s-main-russian-strike-force-on-kharkiv-front/

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ohhhh, how very very sad. Explosions were heard in the area of the Millerovo military airfield in the Rostov region (Russia), and fires broke out following today's drone attack in the region. An oil depot was also hit, according to the Telegram channel Crimean Wind. Local residents mentioned drones and counted over 16 explosions at these three locations, according to a Telegram channel report. Furthermore, Crimean Wind reported fires near the runway and the parking areas of Russian aircraft at Millerovo. According to open sources, the 31st Fighter Aviation Regiment of the 1st Mixed Aviation Division of the Russian Aerospace Forces is (was?) based at this airfield.

Earlier today, the authorities of the Rostov region reported a "massive" air attack using drones. The regional governor initially claimed that over 10 drones had been allegedly shot down, and by morning, he reported that air defense systems had "destroyed and intercepted" 26 UAVs overnight. The Russian official asserted that no one was injured and that "emergency services were dispatched to the sites where UAV debris fell."

Mostly onto Russian aircraft, it seems. The airbase is currently burning, with multiple massive fires along the flightline. Fires reportedly broke out in the area where SU-30SM aircraft are located.

 

[ChloeTzang]

Ukrainian warriors also shot down another russian Su-25 jet in the Donetsk region.

 

[ChloeTzang]

 

[RandyRebecca]

That said I expected Ukraine to fall in weeks, months tops.

Russia did make serious mistakes early in the war, when they did aim at a quick early finish. Strategies have since changed.

I didn't even expect to get anything out of it and we know Russia has suffered serious losses both in raw numbers but also in political clout.

In political clout? How? Business with Europe has been damaged, but made up for in Asia and elsewhere.

 

[Sean Renaud]

Russia did make serious mistakes early in the war, when they did aim at a quick early finish. Strategies have since changed.


In political clout? How? Business with Europe has been damaged, but made up for in Asia and elsewhere.

I know Russia made mistakes. There is nothing great to point out there. I already accepted, months and months ago that I grossly misjudged the scenario. Though the more I'm reading and learning about the Russian military capabilities it seems like I fell for the exact same nonsense my parents did. The Russians were NEVER as awesome as we thought they were. Sure its better to over estimate your opponent than underestimate so okay fine.

Damaging business with Europe is better than whatever gains they may have made with China or North Korea. I have no doubt their relationship with North Korea has improved. I'm skeptical of the Russia China relationship. ITs really not in either of their best interests to get too close.

 

[Lazaran]

A successful attack on a Russian Airbase, etc, shortly after it was announced that a U.S. company had designed and tested an AI kit for drones that could defeat Russian jamming???



Interesting…



Expect MAAAAAAANY more successful drone attacks on Russian forces and infrastructure in the coming weeks and months (years?)





Slava Ukrani!!!

 

[RandyRebecca]

I know Russia made mistakes. There is nothing great to point out there. I already accepted, months and months ago that I grossly misjudged the scenario. Though the more I'm reading and learning about the Russian military capabilities it seems like I fell for the exact same nonsense my parents did. The Russians were NEVER as awesome as we thought they were. Sure its better to over estimate your opponent than underestimate so okay fine.

The Russians have that Black Sea coast land. That's the most important thing.

Damaging business with Europe is better than whatever gains they may have made with China or North Korea. I have no doubt their relationship with North Korea has improved. I'm skeptical of the Russia China relationship. ITs really not in either of their best interests to get too close.

It is most certainly in the interests of Russia and China to be close at this time. They can't beat the US alone, and the US attacks both of them.

Biden undid all the US foreign policy since Nixon's time that was aimed at keeping the Russians and Chinese apart.

 

[Sean Renaud]

The Russians do have the Black Sea Coast but that wasn't really the goal.

Russia and China can't beat us together. I don't think Biden did much to put those two together that wasn't already happening but maybe I'm wrong on this one. They could be that fucking dumb.

 

[ChloeTzang]

A successful attack on a Russian Airbase, etc, shortly after it was announced that a U.S. company had designed and tested an AI kit for drones that could defeat Russian jamming???



Interesting…



Expect MAAAAAAANY more successful drone attacks on Russian forces and infrastructure in the coming weeks and months (years?)





Slava Ukrani!!!

Well, TWO things we agree on.

Slava Ukraini!!!!! Heroiam Slava!!!

 

[ChloeTzang]

The Russians have that Black Sea coast land. That's the most important thing.

Nope, it's almost irrelevant. Crimea is almost isolated now. Kerch Bridge is largely non-operational except for light vehicle travel. The rail / road link north of the Sea of Azov is mostly interdicted. Russians have been bringing in supplies by ship, both along the coast to Sevastopol and on the Kerch ferries. Anywhere along the Crimean coast is no longer viable due to Ukrainian maritime drones sinking the ships. Kerch ferries are being taken out by drones and missiles. Logistically, Crimea is in deep shit and there are no more tourists after the last few attacks. Russians have finally realized Crimea is now an active war zone, so there goes the economy.

https://kyivindependent.com/russians-cancel-crimea-holidays-en-masse-tourist-season-ruined-hur-says/

Now, when the Russians blew the dam on the Dnipro, they cut the canal to Crimea which supplied water for Crimea, as well as for agriculture across Southern Ukraine. There are a hundred thousand soldiers on the Kerson front who now need to be supplied with water. By truck because there's no rail. That water has to be trucked north to the soldiers, and then moved up to the front. Ukraine is targeting those water tankers - look at the daily truck count. Summer is hot in Kherson. Dehydration kills. A few days without water and you're dead. Russian soldiers are going to be dehydrated and dying of thirst, so they will drink untreated ground water (this is Russia, no iodine tabs), and they will catch cholera, typhoid and dysentery and they will die.

Logistics. The Russian logistics system is going down, and they're closer and closer to a Lanchester Square collapse. And when that happens.....

 

[ChloeTzang]

The use of crippled/wounded Russian men as soldiers is not the only or even the most important indicator that Russia has hit the mobilization wall, Nor are female prisoners, foreign mercs or DPRK soldiers. What IS is that Russia is now deploying Hitlerjugend-esque child-soldiers. This trial use of 17 year olds by Putin reported by Ukraine's Center for National Resistance (CNR) closely mirrors the Hitlerjugend Division of the Waffen SS in the Normandy summer of 1944.

The end game of this desperation measure in Feb/Mar 1945 was the Waffen SS using 14 year old kids. Per the CNR Report: "Currently, Russia is actively recruiting members of patriotic movements, in particular, the network of military education centers "Warrior" and "Yunarmiya" (Young Army). Teenagers aged 17 .are being actively recruited to military enlistment offices to sign a contract upon reaching the age of majority,""

You don't have to be @PeterZeihan to see the demographic disaster this represents for Russia.

Russian economics are in nearly the same position as Russian manpower. The bar chart below showing the temporal speed with which a Trillion rubles in the state budget is being spent. Is Russia spending more or is it inflation?

The answer is "YES!"

A lot of the Russian GDP numbers you see are inflated by Western Keynesian economist book keeping delusion, post WW2, that artillery shells and missiles are a positive contributor towards national wealth. They simply are not...and never have been. Shells and missiles are in fact hazardous toxic waste worth far less than the raw material and labor inputs. Anyone who as worked on demilitarizing old US cluster munitions past EPA annual pollution burn requirements for TNT knows this in their gut.

Keynesians? Not so much. Disproving that the WW2 American economy "grew," rather than turned useful economic output into hazardous toxic waste, is a big reality based 'ask' for Keynesian Economists from the 1940's onwards. This delusion colors our policies towards Russia today. But that Keynesian GDP delusion is remarkably useful for "Escalation Managers" who are trying to sell "Russia Strong" to maintain their policies and phoney baloney jobs. Even when you visually see that Russian motor transport is rapidly devolving

We are seeing Russian motor transport hitting the same mobilization wall as Russian manpower. Recent videos from the front are confirming that Putin's maniacal obsession with Ukraine has liquidated the Russian military to the point that his meat waves no longer even have the benefit of armor. Motor cycles and golf carts stacked with meat, wild! Another post WW2 delusion supporting the "Russia Strong" narrative with the Keynesians GDP delusions is Western Logistical intelligence refusing to see that Russia has continued to use Mobik animal labor logistics for 80 years.

80% of the time involved in every Soviet/Russian truck logistical movement was spent loading and unloading the truck. Col Ralph Peters & others looking at Soviet Afghanistan logistics saw it from 1979 to 1989...yet the delusion remained, and nothing has changed.

Russian manpower, economics and motor transport are all headed towards Lanchester Square collapse in close formation. But Western elites cannot see it any more than they saw the collapse of the Soviet Union coming.